Factory Orders Ex Transports Post First Annual Decline Since July

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's December factory orders data came as a surprise to those expecting a whopping beat of expectations in the aftermath of the superficial beat in the Durable data released last week. Instead, the headline Factory Orders missed expectations of a 2.2% rise, growing just 1.8% in December, with the November data revised lower from 0% to -0.3%. Worse news was that Factory Orders ex the meaningless and volatile transportation number (see Dreamliner), rose just 0.2% in the last month of 2012, after declining 0.2% in November. Yet the ugliest number of the day was the year over year change in factory orders ex transports, which is perhaps the best coincident indicator of general business spending, and in line with the non-defense capital goods ex aircraft series from the Durables report. This posted a -0.2% nominal drop in December, the first decline since July. All those hoping that the freeze on capital spending increases will thaw any time soon, can put all such hopes back in carbonite where they belong.

And from last week, the whopping Y/Y drop in non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft merely validates the above data point.

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Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:37 | 3213342 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Sandy's fault?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:47 | 3213372 madcows
madcows's picture

Politician's and banker's fault.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:51 | 3213381 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

It's Sandy Bush's fault.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:39 | 3213346 Cursive
Cursive's picture

...but the internals of the negative GDP print were encouraging....

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:44 | 3213368 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Its transitory...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:59 | 3213407 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The bad news is you are dying.

The good news is that your kidneys and liver are functioning better than expected for a man your age.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:39 | 3213348 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Looks like a mirror of late 2007/early 2008. Gee, what happened after that?

I know. This time=different.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:47 | 3213373 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Certainly looks like the angle will be different no? Its not going to be a US bank that will trigger the race to zero.. Either a european one or a sovereign i would think...

German elections is my guess for a lehman moment..

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:52 | 3213391 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's gonna be an insurance company. My guess is European. But it could be U.S.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:58 | 3213356 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Looks like shitty numbers definitely have game advantage. Wonder how pretzel carts are doing. 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 11:47 | 3213371 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture



Great, that's just great.  US will need a hurrican every quarter now in order to have a scapegoat for weak economic numbers.


Time to give HAARP a call, see if they can trigger some stuff.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:04 | 3213417 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thank goodness for the rush on guns and ammo..if it wasn't for that could you imagine how bad the numbers would be?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:14 | 3213443 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

After my stock up here in Tampa, I doubt there is a bullet for sale anywhere left in the Bay area.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 13:16 | 3213608 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Run em up and run em back down...just make sure you are the one doing the herding

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