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Gold Rallies As Stocks Suffer Worst Day Of 2013

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following Europe's worst day in months, the US stock markets saw the biggest drop of 2013 today. For those shunning the brief period, aside from 12/28 swings, this is the worst drop in the S&P 500 futures since early November on a relatively high volume day. EUR's weakness was a major driver (just as it was on the way up) jawboned by various CEOs and leaders and pressured down to almost a 1.34 handle (down over 1% against the USD as JPY gained 0.6% against the USD). Treasury yields clattered lower - to Friday's lows - and credit markets remained much less exuberant (as stocks played catch-down). Gold was relatively bid even as the USD gained, testing up to $1675.  Homebuilders continue to slip lower and with AAPL's ongoing demise, there was no OPEX/month-end pump to save Tech and implicitly the rest of the market. HY Bond ETFs and synthetics remain weak but selling is thin in bond-land - it seems everyone knows that the cash market can't stand a herd heading for the exit all at once. VIX jumped a considerable 1.75 vols to 14.65% - its highest close of the year.

 

It isn't much - a 1.35% drop from Friday's highs - but its the biggest PLUNGE since the year began in an inexorable rally in stocks... realized vol picked up too

 

As EUR weakness and JPY strength dragged the USD higher and hurt carry-funded trade everywhere...

 

As Stocks remain massively disconnected from credit...

 

as it is becoming evident that all those 'stuffed' managers are seeking alternative to hedge with - as opposed to selling down their holdings - the HY Adv-Dec line is beginning to crack...

 

and Gold managed gains, even as the USD gained...

 

as it catches up to Treasury yields and stock prices...

 

as VIX pushed to its highest close of the year - also notably divergent from stocks (and a motably flatter curve)

 

S&P500 futures held that magical 1490ish level once again - though we did not see the nortmal surge BTFD move off of it...

 

Source: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Capital Context (@CapitalContext) LLC is the leader in integrating credit-market data to actively trade equity markets. From our world-renowned intraday 'CONTEXT' and 'SPY Arb' models to the daily long-short equity portfolio, sector-weight updates and tactical asset-allocation strategies, Capital Context offers sophisticated hedge-fund strategies to the active trading community.

 

Bonus Chart: McGraw Hill gets a slap on the wrist...


 


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Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

bad day in black rock; take the next train to boot hill. 

If you miss that you can catch the 3.10 to ...yu-ma-gal !

The only bourse that seems ok is the Nikkei on the rocks! I guess the sliding Yen helps.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

all i know is gas has rallied this week at my local gas station to the tune of .45-.60 cents this week

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gasoline has not yet jumped in my corner of FL...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

You must live in the "Dark" side of town. 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:42 | Link to Comment BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Stocks down? Print dat sheeeeiiittt.
Gasoline up? Bomb some more brown people or blame speculators.
Gold up? Dump moar shorts on the market.

People asking qustions? Show them football. If that doesn't work take their guns and internet, put them in gulag.

 

gg 'merica. thanks for playin.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:37 | Link to Comment MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I have been thinking about this a lot. Are not both of the following statements true?:

1. The Fed and the US government will do anything and everything (and I mean that in the strongest literal sense) to prop up the stock market. Otherwise, pension funds, public and private (but especially public) are utterly bankrupt overnight. Obviously, anything and everything includes (at a minimum) printing money and giving it to others to buy stocks, if necessary. There are even some on this website who have made a compelling case that such is already being done.

2. The Fed and the US government are actively undertaking debasement of the dollar to monetize debt and to keep the system from outright imploding quickly. Again, I have read enough articles and commentary here that I am persuaded that this has already begun, and, further, that this policy will be pursued until the very end.

I am aware that there is what appears to be a disconnect between the economy and the market; viz., the market no longer reflects the underlying economy or fundamentals of any particular company or sector, but instead is being manipulated to enrich certain individuals, prevent utter pension and system collapse, and to give the appearance (via television sound bite talking points) of normalcy or better.

Nevertheless, given the certainty of the two policies mentioned above, is it not impossible that the market will decline in any significant manner (at least nominally), and likely will provide growth commensurate with real inflation for some period of time (which may well prove to be longer than my remaining days here on Earth)?

Really, it seems like the big questions are:

1. How long? When?

2. What will prove the harbinger of real decline?

3. Will manipulation and support include all stocks (including Facebook, Netlix, Amazon, and their ilk) or just some? How to identify those that will enjoy the most support the longest?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

The sharp reversal in the stock market today, the first trading day after the DJIA closed above the psychologically important 14K mark, is an extremely ominous development IMHO.  War or a like geopolitical crisis may come next:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2013/02/dow-14000-world-war-three.html

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 01:58 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

We will be seeinga lot more of this scenario in the days to come.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Yeah, same here and we and everyone else who buys gas is caught short.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

You want to see deflationary collapse?

Wait till Europe finally shits the bed.

Your gold won't be worth anything.

These are strange times.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/tuesday.html

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

bernanke will give back all losses tomm.

 

lets pray this is the beggining of a global sell off

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Wake me up when the Dow to Gold hits 1.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I would buy gold before then...  And see the benefits!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Then again, the world might not be worth waking up to at that point. However, the Dow would be cheap given the blood in the streets.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

DJ 10k: Gold 10k - sounds fine to me.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:01 | Link to Comment markettime
markettime's picture

This is the first day this year my gold holdings actually did something while the rest of the markets were down. I hope I have more days like today! 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Assuming you have physical... you gold holdings did the same they do every other day... sat at the bottom of the lake after your canoe incident.  The nominal value doesn't mean shit.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

All the tech darlings hit today with the "smart" money (as Pisani would say) chasing the newest helium high darling - NFLX. It's a wonderful market, or whatever you want to call it.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'd like to go long NFLX, but I'm waiting for the central bank of Israel to put out some kind of word that they've established a position as my 'all clear to buy' signal.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

So just BTFD ahead of POMO then?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

it worked all through january that way.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I thought every day was POMO day now.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

No, POMO took the day off today. Probably planned in advance since it was the day after the Super Bowl. Shenanigans and nonsense will resume tomorrow.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

lather, rinse, repeat

 

This month's $80B hasn't been injected yet.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

vix as bad as it is looks like its getting ready to break out.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not when the govt is actively suppressing it.  Who would have ever guessed the day would come when the government actively manipulated the VOLATILITY INDEX as a perception mgmt/propaganda tool?  We've sure come a long way in the sophistication of the propaganda since the '1940s and '1950s.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Not to worry. The metals, namely silver, will rocket very shortly (on any kind of sustained equity pullback) and the GSR will destroy the DXY (GSR leads and predicts DX)

I see HS n NAS DX USH3 GSR GBPCHF USDCHF

USDNOK already close to low lows USDSEK also.. Its all on the way dont worry and every asset is in final stages of major pattern completion. Manipulatiors will lose.. and drag many down with them unfortunatly.

Physical only, of course

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Of course, physical only.  Although I expect the 'price' to continue to fall as the amount of physical metal available in the market drops.  I've decided the best signal to watch is the premium at my local coin shop.  Once his supply starts getting constrained he presumably won't be willing to sell at the Comex price anymore.  That will be the tell that the game's almost done for the paper market.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

I think paper to go higher. Gold is solid surely. OI is at august levels whoevers left isnt selling, at least thats how i see it.

Silver though, i mean.. Physical situation is off the charts and the weekly oscillators are mega bullish. Two weeks i say and we go.

Stocks may run a little while from here but when metals go its be topping out time for SP/

could always be wrong like.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All hinges on blatant manipulation of 'indicators'...talk about screwed.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

They're playing whack-a-mole.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The AFC winning the SuperBowl portends a 'losing' year for the DOW...

~~~

I remember hearing 'hard hitting' financial wizardry commentary like that on CNBS back in the day... [that's why they got paid '2&20']...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Looks like CNBC couldn't even get the anomaly correct (they must miss Darren Rovell).  The Super Bowl indicator for the stock market is not meaningful this year.  Historically, the forecast of a down stock market for the year only applied if one of the original AFL teams won the Super Bowl.  49ers and Ravens (formely the Cleveland Browns) are both original NFL teams.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That's true [caveat applies to 'original' AFL teams]... good catch!

~~~

Bullish! BTFD! :-)

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

You're kidding me right?  Outside of Wall Steet and the world financial markets, sports are the most rigged game in town. 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

The AFC winning the SuperBowl portends a 'losing' year for the DOW

    You are only looking at the raw superbowl data.  The superbowl is played in the winter, so after the seasonal adjustment, the niners won by a point, just as I predicted.  There are Mean Joe Green shoots everywhere, and we are approaching the season of recovery.  If one doesn't have a PHd in footballnomics (or closely related coachology) one might not be sufficiently prepared to comment on any of this, either.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

gotta 'earn' your 2&20 somehow...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

+1.  Flat fee + Performance based fee (+ manipulation)= no way to lose...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:04 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Cheesy ~ if you look real hard... francis_sawyer does his best, FREE OF CHARGE, to help people make money every day...

~~~

Besides suggesting [all documented on ZH]:

- taking the Ravens (+400) vs. the Broncos

- taking the Ravens (+400) vs. the Patriots

- taking the Ravens (+175) vs. the 49ers

[a PARLAY that would have netted you out a 28-1 payout]...

These weren't just whimsical picks... I went into DETAIL as to why the "lines" were incorrect... I probably wrote a whole page on the Denver game... & most recently, I gave you the proper VIEW on the SuperBowl

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-02/complete-and-unabridged-works-dylan-grice#comment-3209026

- which amounted to turnovers & Jerome Boger penalty flags...

~~~

But people here are too worried about whether any Joos are being mis-represented to profit from anything...

francis_sawyer isn't the one trying to steal your money... But you gladly fork it over to the '2&20' theives...

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Yeah, I should have just gone with the low hanging fruit and said coach Harbaugh would win.   Do we really need to bring the Jews into every single conversation?  It gets quite tiresome. 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I try to avoid it when I can, but in banking & the financial world, it's like jumping off a boat & trying to avoid hitting the water...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Since you put it in that context F_S>>> +1.  When you bring up the Hebrews it is not anti-Semitic in tone so much as it is fact and I think that mere mention of the word "Jew" confuses some people who then go into pre-programmed knee jerk reaction mode.  For example, I don't think we should give Isreal one red cent in foreign aid.  Cut them off.  That's not anti-Semitic either, it's just good financial sense.  And if anyone out there in ZH land thinks AIPAC isn't operating on this board..... 

 

Did you have a comment deleted earlier today F_S?  You posted a link on another thread but I couldn't find anything that you said that was out of line but perhaps you did cross the line?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Manipulation

~~~

I calculate that half the VOLUME of my comments relating to Jews come about because anytime ANYONE dangles something like out there, everybody goes stark raving mad...

The ADL has gone to such extreme lengths to silence everyone on the mere mention of the subject [for 'paranoia' or whatever reason], that you have to go about EXPLAINING YOURSELF 8 ways from Wednesday in order for your comment to appear logical in context...

IMO ~ In aggregate, it's a behaviour that breeds more suspicion & contempt than it does TRUTH... But that's THEIR problem...

~~~

I don't know if any of my comments were deleted... I really wouldn't care one way or another... 'Silencing' people [in the history of the world], never ever held a candle [IN THE LONG RUN], to people who spoke the TRUTH...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

@F_S.  I agree that the truth should not be run over for the sake of being politically correct.  You know that you are getting to the heart of the matter when you start pissing people off.  I see what it is that you are OBSERVING and commenting on which is not hate speech the way I interpret it.  All I am saying is that folks need to stop and look at what it is that you are OBSERVING. 

Analyse the data folks and shitcan the "Wo, is me because I am a Jew." meme that has been installed in your heads.  Over 50 million people died in WWII and over 20 million Russians took a dirt nap.  Yet, it's OK to sit and rip the shit out of the Russians still to this day?  I am inclined to agree with CD's first article that perhaps we should look at what we think we know to determine if we actually know something or are regurgitating political phlegm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Lew

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

My GOAL is NOT to create UNIVERSALITY in ANYTHING...

~~~

I happen to like diversity... I think that is the STUFF of growth...

It's a hard subject for people to sink their teeth into [because it takes a keen mind to distinguish the difference between somebody NOT saying "Exterminate Them" & INSTEAD saying "I'm going to put up a fight if you try & exterminate me"]...

~~~

To give you an example... Every spring I have a fight with BORER BEES [which are a pain in the ass because I have an almost 'Swiss Family Robinson-esque' decking system]... Yet at the same time ~ they're my main source of fruit & plant pollinators...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I agree F_S.  You seem to have a practical understanding of the world around you through observation as well as a practical background in agronomics.  So do I.  As for the borer bees, I understand the give and take as it is economics.  Have you ever thought about honeybees as an alternate pollinator?  Or would they interbreed and create some issue?  See, this is what so many people do not understand, i.e. causal relationships.

So it is not for me, or anyone else including a .gov agency that lives 1000 miles from your place, to tell you what to do to solve the bee issue but rather for you to determine the best course of action.  I have my concerns about fipronil and honeybee Colony Collapse Disorder as I am pretty sure that the cause of CCD is extremely excessive fipronil use by homeowners since BASF started selling it to everyone, their brother and Wal-mart.  I used to refuse to sell fipronil to homeowners.  Fipronil is awesome of used properly but to let it into the hands of the average mortgaged to the hilt "homeowner" is not a good idea IMO.

No easy answer is there?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD This is the last chance you may ever have.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Hmm.  Well, then ...  you might want to affix the propeller even more firmly to your crown, and make sure it's spinning 'directionally correct', so's you don't miss the big rebound tomorr-y.

As for me, I just hope the dorks at Direxion 10-1 reverse split TZA soon -- even on a per share basis the paltry $11 stock price makes day-trades riskier than they need to be, today's juicy little run notwithstanding.  SSD or QID don't quite provide the same pop.  Given these things are (allegedly) designed for day trades, they should never let it drop below 25, to keep us bears happily shitting in the woods (although I guess we non-holders don't pay any fees, do we?)

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

5% - 10% pullback coming for equity here.  Then as Europe burns in the hearth of technocratic governments the Debt Cieling will spark new rumors of debt default in the US. 

But we know how the can will be kicked - they will print more currency, causing everything to increase in price as the fiat devalues.

Soon inflation will not be able to be masked by short positions on oil by JPM.  Soon the real costs will rise and a wrench will be throw into the mouth of the Fiat Ponzi.  Soon prices for everyday goods will make GDP negative and expose the system for what it is:  total fraud.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:43 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

It's been "Soon" for way too long now.  Wake me up when it's imminent.  Or, better yet, the day after.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

"Gold rallies..."

Really? Gold rallies? Where? When? With the best will of the world, but I don't see a "rally." I merely see the price bounce back a couple of Bucks to where it was earlier this morniing....

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

First, you are fighting day trading Tyler, better know as Nic Lenoir.  Second, gold was up $7 while stocks were down 1% in the US and 2% in europe.  In the face of a stock sell off, $7 higher is fine. 

Slow and steady wins the race.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Ah thanks for that clue.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If we get anything more than a 3% pullback I will be shocked. Why spend so much time trying to get the herd to stampede back into the market only to possibly scare them away so quickly?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

yup. they are looking for upward movement overall. this is how wealth is made. the market will go higher. plus people are so fucking dumb, they'll never complain about $5-$8 bread as long as it appears like their 401k is "making them money"

imho, there is no fucking way they will let the market drop.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Silver Bitchezzz!!!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

I'd be careful, this could be a bear trap.  See what Asia does, they go down over 2% across the board, Europe opens 2% gap down, EUR tanks more (on corruption in the Italy, Spain allegations, the Germans are going to love that).  We might have a solid sell off building, 1% sell offs on US markets are nothing with crazy money printers lurking.

30yr bond tanking on Friday was a good indication that the US bond markets could be under strain despite QEforever.  We could have a huge wipe-out coming, that may stay wiped for a while.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Kingkongballs827
Kingkongballs827's picture

PVC Gun Burial Tube. Holds 3 long rifles Ak47, SKS, AR15 plus ammo and gold & silver. Check it out here.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/160965515323?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649

 

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Hell yeah.

You know the gun that I really like is the SCAR MK17 that the special boarder patrol guys use.

http://www.tactical-life.com/online/tactical-weapons/fnh-usa-scar-mk17-b...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:01 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

Asia will almost certainly sell off tonight as they usually follow the u.s markets and european markets.

 

however, all there needs to be is 1 stupid false rumor tomm in europe about how everything is ok, etc, and europe will be up nicely, which of course the u.s will follow as well.

 

lets hope europe is as bad as it seems and we see a global collapse. couldnt happen to better ppl a big crash

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 22:31 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

HK is selling hard like the good old days (2012 before July and then after CB madness), DXY has slight bids, Futures are bid.  Market could be trying to correct, with POMO expectations securing bids on futures - a short trade looks perilous at this point. 

But revenge is building.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Theories aside the world is sliding toward collapse and gold/silver are the only refuge. The only issue is how long it will take how many people to realize this and act. At that point those who already own physical gold/silver will face a difficult decision - how to realize the value of their assets without exposing themselves to risk.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:03 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

US Eq spiked immediately after today's close...just like last Thurs. They'll open the DOW up 150 tomorrow.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment FearedDevil
FearedDevil's picture

not realy a gold rally - still waiting for some important channels to break in gold before I get excited.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

I could swear I read an article the other day about all of the folks jumping back into retail stocks due the rally since the beginning of the year.

I guess that is how muppets are slain.

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