This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Treasury Forecasts $16.763 Trillion In Debt On March 31 Translating To 105% Debt/GDP

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Earlier today the US Treasury released its latest Borrowing Estimates for Q1 and Q2 of calendar 2013. In brief: in the ended quarter, the Treasury borrowed some $297 billion, $9 billion more than the $288 billion previously predicted. One reason for this miss is the build up of cash in the quarter which ended at $93 billion instead of the $60 billion initially expected. However the extra cash buffer will be used in Q1, in which Treasury now expects to burn some $63 billion instead of the $30 billion forecast before, ending the quarter with $30 billion in cash. To get there, Treasury will need to raise some $331 billion in debt in January through March, just shy of the prior estimate of $342 billion in funding need in this quarter. And since the US debt to the penny counter has been stopped since the debt ceiling breach, and is still at the December 31, 2012 debt limit of $16.432 billion, this means we now know, approximately, that US debt on March 31, 2013 will be $16,763,730,050,569.10, give or take a dime, or said otherwise, assuming a generous 1% sequential growth in Q1 GDP, a 105% debt/GDP in two months.

From the Treasury:

And what this means:

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Finally, a forecast we can believe in.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sure, at least the Fed is buying it.  

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:18 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

One can never be 100% for sure especially when the numbers are so big and unfathomable. This is why they estimate. Could be at 115% or 150% debt / GDP already but who knows anymore? Do these numbers really matter anymore?

The plebs seem to be entertained and standing outside to cheer for the gladiators in Baltimore who brought "home" the trophy. Not that it personally affects or benefits any of the thousands cheering and celebrating for the players. They don't care how diluted we have become.

Why can I not be dumb for at least a day in my life to see what it feels like to enjoy the propaganda? God why have you given me the smarts to figure out how this bullshit works instead of blessing me with ignorance?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Lets not forget all the maturing debt that has to be rolled over this year too.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Is "maturing debt" a contradiction in terms?  Just sayin'

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Italy?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:53 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

It's only money, Tyler.  It's not as if anyone intends to actually pay it back, or any of the other 150 trillion or so that would be counted as debt, if we had honest books.

Haven't said it lately.  AUDIT THE FED.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

All cash and metals by the Ides.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

I can't green this enough.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:32 | Link to Comment LapseOfReason
LapseOfReason's picture

You can always go this route
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YatFF37gSBo

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Walkure,

18 year old scotch and beautiful girls help to ease the pain.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

You sure that's not 18 year old girls and cheap bourbon?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

What would it look like if they measured it the way my bank does when I want a loan? Debt to income ratio. Why do they measure it against the total output of the economy, private enterprise included?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Not to even start on how flawed "total output of the economy" (aka GDP) is...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

I've got your debt to GDP.

I got it hanging between my legs.

Assholes.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/tuesday.html

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

& what was that figure from the other day?... $17 Trillion in retirement accounts?... What a coincidence!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It will be a measure of your patriotism, don't 'cha know.

"I'm doing my part, I converted my IRA to U.S. Treasury Debt-War Bonds."

Tom Hanks?  Ron Howard?  Matt Damon?

or

Whoopi Goldberg?  Ariana Huffington?  Barbara Streisand?

Maybe a duo with Tom and Whoopi, broadcast ad nauseum.

"Do your part to save the nation:  our brave Men and Women overseas, our children and grandchildren, our farms, our freedoms, and our great country.  Fight the national debt with Treasury Debt-War Bonds to show you care."

I can hear it now...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Will it be a measure of Chinamen patriotism too?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Fuck! Captain America did his part promoting war bonds. He turned out to be a super hero thanks to government debt and experimentation. If it works for a comic book hero it works for me.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Hey, those gov't slobs who retire at 45 earned it. Now pay up bitch.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:16 | Link to Comment your neighbor
your neighbor's picture

Its only valued at 17 trillion at the margin. What is the value of any company that tries to make fiat from people that earns fiat while fiat is going exponential.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Left Coast Dan
Left Coast Dan's picture

I forecast higher. If there's no cap right now you know they're going to borrow as much as they can before the cutoff.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Barack Hussein Obama showing Hugo Chavez what the left is all about!  Top that Hugo!  Real leftists don't do budgets!

Barack is living out "Dreams from His Father"

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Who's your daddy?!?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:49 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

If the dream is to get the country totally intoxicated, and then crash it in a ditch, then, yes. It appears we are headed to the same place that Barack Obama Sr. wound up.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

Relax, you still have a lot of room above you. look at japan, and they are doing excellent!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Well look, if the point at which people lose faith they'll ever get their money back is ~300% then the US still has a few decades to go.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Gold, bitchez!

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment HoaX
Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"You know the rules...and so do I!"

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"You wouldn't get this from any other guy."

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:15 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You've probably done this already at some point, but could you give us an overlay of Treasury debt versus S&P or DOW in the same time period?

Wonder what the correlation coefficient would be?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Do they take Visa?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

I'm sort of confused: How can the treasury still sell bonds when the debt limit has been hit? Do they simply say "Fuck the limit, sell em!"?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Raiding pensions is the equivalent of selling bonds.  Just ask the Timmer.

(is he gone, yet?)

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yup ~ They just raid away, mark it down as an accounting entry, & wait for the next convenient time to push the ceiling higher [hint: it usually happens AFTER the elections & DURING 'March Madness']...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I have been pointing out to my conservative republican contemporaries how many supposed Republicans voted to "temporarily" suspend the debt ceiling ala Nixon "temporarily" suspending gold window. These acts are nothing more to bluff the remaining few (super bowl/march madness crowd of the tens of millions) to suspend gravity a bit longer.

The collective "Ah-ha!" moment of the public will be a sight to be seen, unless of course the tyranny of fasicm and national socialism finally show its last claws of desperation/death/war in its country of origin.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Banksters
Banksters's picture

Add in the FED's 3 trillion and 2 trillion robbed from Social Security and we are looking, ummm... fucked.

 

DEBT REPUDIATION, YES WE CAN.

 

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

What is a few billion among friends at this point.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

A few billion is just a couple shavings off a platinum coin, no?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Japan is at 230.00% debt/GDP and still hasn't imploded. The US is at a paltry 105%.

Once again, GET TO WORK MR. CHAIRMAN!

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Banksters
Banksters's picture

 

Spain has been quietly tapping the country's richest piggy bank, the Social Security Reserve Fund, as a buyer of last resort for Spanish government bonds, raising questions about the fund's role as guarantor of future pension payouts.

 

Now the scarcely noticed borrowing spree, carried out amid a prolonged economic crisis, is about to end, because there is little left to take. At least 90% of the €65 billion ($85.7 billion) fund has been invested in increasingly risky Spanish debt, according to official figures, and the government has begun withdrawing cash for emergency payments.

 

 

++++

 

 

SPAIN's BOND YIELD SKYROCKET AMID POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

 

 

RUT ROH!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:38 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

ring around the rosie ...

They're already dead. Nations buying their own debt with funds from social security accounts which have been buying the sovereign bonds of said nation to invest the capital.

Collateral will evaporate into nothingness. KABOOM!!!

And then there was silence and everyone started to look in their cubboards and tins and cans and in their shed to find anything tangible that could be bartered for food. Anything of real value that other people will want to accept in exchange for a chicken, some eggs, a piece of meat and some flour. The stores are empty. Streets littered with useless paper money and plastic payment cards everywhere. It's all garbage and has no value anymore. Wondering if it ever really represented value or was all just a bad joke.

This will be reality. Get your house in order. NOW.

 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Treasury will need to raise some $331 billion in debt in January through March, just shy of the prior estimate of $342 billion in funding need in this quarter."

I imagine The Great Chairsatan will be happy to help accomodate the Treasury by gobbling up its paper...

FED = FUBAR.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:07 | Link to Comment NIETSNEREM
NIETSNEREM's picture

I couldn't believe it when my Bloomberg terminal started flashing in big red letters this afternoon proclaiming "Treasury to borrow $11 billion less than previously estimated next quarter." I looked at it with one one of those WTF glances.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

nice.... 5% plus increase in how many months?
almost every president did that in a 4 year term... Obama in a fart...

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:27 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

"or said otherwise, assuming a generous 1% sequential growth in Q1 GDP, a 105% debt/GDP in two months."

 

Slight phrasing issue, and it may be correct, but GDP growth rates reported each quarter are annualized.  There's really no such thing as "sequential".

Last week's -0.1% was annualized for 2012 Q4.  This left 2012's average-of-quarters GDP rise between 1.5 and 2%, annualized.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:30 | Link to Comment ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

"sequential quarters of annualized 1% growth"? See that wasn't hard.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

There is annualized growth of any one quarter. And there is sequential. The former can be represented as the latter, which is what this analysis has done.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Won't quibble too very much.

Corporate earnings of small caps will talk about sequential increases of say, Q4 over Q3.  That's perhaps an informal definition of "sequential", but this little commentary clarifies adequately.

Though btw Q1 1% fights the payroll tax cut headwind and a goodly portion of the discretionary side of the Sequester.  The DoD side is likely pushed past March 31 so it hits in Q2. 

1%, as noted in the article, will be challenging.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Among the many astoundinding things about this is that the growth from 87%-ish to 104%-ish occurred in just the past three years. 

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Its all ones and zeros and that's all it is.  Can you hold a digital one or digital zero?

There is no limit, there are no negative consequences.....until there are.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment moroots
moroots's picture

Debt is wealth, we're rich bitchezz!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

We borrowed it from Hortek,  who borrowed it from Vlad. He got part of it from Suki, that called in a loan from Brad.  It was a no account receivable originally written off,  None of it legitimate when all knew that it was toff.  Guaranteed by Romulus, Remus had no part,  distributed by Sphincterius and did it smell like art.  Twas hypothecated serially, the odor was extreme, it came back unrecoverable and no one's hands were clean. It dissapated suddenly when the wind began to blow and has not been seen since then. A new claim has been found to show it belonged to uncle Ben.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:06 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

anybody notice that the deficit is rolling backwards? check out http://usdebtclock.org/. click on 2017 and the deficit is only 155 billion.....interesting............................

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Do you pronounce your moniker "kite-oh" or "key-toe"?

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:28 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

i dont know because ive never uttered it before.....wait....let me try.....yes, its definitely key-toe.............

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 23:39 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Says 22.we're fucked trillion on my screen, but then I seem to get reality on my cpu, yet the rest of the world gets different numbers......

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Surprise, no downgrades!!!! The US justice department payed the rating agencies a visit and threatened them.

You are living in the new Soviet  Union comrades!!! Central planning.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Certainly was no coincidence that the debt ceiling increase was signed into law today by the chairman.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

According to "Modern Monetary Theory", this is a problem that can be completely eliminated with fewer than seventeen Platinum Coins.

Party on, bitchezzzz!

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

As long as you can make the Chinese accept these coins, yes.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Herdee
Herdee's picture

Hugo and Barack are both Masons.Anyone who thinks they are enemies is sadly mistaken.

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

coach says i gotta give 110% to keep up with debt

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 00:57 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Projected!   Bwahahahahahaha, that's rich!  Oh wait...correction.  That's debt!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!