Art Cashin Uncovers Another Unintended Consequence Of Immigration Reform

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As UBS' Art Cashin points out, the weekend talk shows were filled with talk of immigration reform, and yet, as he exclaims, no discussion of Social Security. The avuncular arbitrageur, however, sees immigration reform from a different and insightful perspective noting that while immigration reform may finally get the undocumented worker a fairer break, Social Security will lose significantly...

Via Art Cashin,

Immigration Reform And Social Security – An Unintended Consequence? – The weekend talk shows were filled with talk of immigration reform. There were long lists of consequences discussed. Yet none that I heard mentioned Social Security.

 

There are said to be about 11 million undocumented folks around the country who need immigration reform. Most of them are working at any job they can find to make ends meet.

 

In order to get most of those jobs, they have to supply their employers with a Social Security number. Since they are undocumented, they don't have a Social Security number so many have to submit a false Social Security number.

 

That, in turn, means a great many have FICA deducted and sent to a Social Security system from which they will never collect. For each, their employers also contribute in their name.

 

If those perceptions are correct, those folks and their employers have poured millions and millions of "bonus" dollars into Social Security, yet the system remains broken.

 

The same type of thing occurs when somebody works two or three jobs. If his (or her) earnings go over the FICA limit, the worker can claim a refund of the overdraft on their income tax form. The employers, however, don’t know about the other employers. So, their share of the overpayment lingers as another "bonus" in the system.

 

Despite the various bonuses, the system is still going broke each day. If immigration reform comes, the undocumented may finally get a fairer break but Social Security will lose those unfair bonuses.

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Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:36 | 3216295 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Give me their vote and give them your job.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:41 | 3216316 true brain
true brain's picture

Reconquistadore is going right on schedule in california. By 2014, over half of population in california will be hispanics. They come , they breed, they take over.

oh, yeah, and in between breeding and taking over, they form gangs , deal drugs, occupy prison, and kill everything in their path.

Welcome.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:45 | 3216327 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

How silly of Mexicans to live in the state that used to be their own country.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:49 | 3216338 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Somebody give them Feinstein's address...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:01 | 3216375 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Scorcese never got the full credit that that movie deserved...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:06 | 3216399 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Boss Tweed never got the full credit that that politician deserved...Nobel Peace Prize?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:33 | 3216763 economics9698
economics9698's picture

"How silly of Mexicans to live in the state that used to be their own country."

They lost the war.  Wars have consequences.  Next war we will kick them out again.  History repeats.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:46 | 3216566 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Don't interupt Feinstein,she's about ready to give head to my Benelli.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:34 | 3216767 economics9698
economics9698's picture

That bitch is a nasty Jooo cunt.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:51 | 3216350 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

As if they were there to remember it. 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:16 | 3216444 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

And they took it from who?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:05 | 3216642 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Well, I guess the dinosaurs could claim they were there first, but alas, they can't vote for democrats, their arms were to tiny.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 16:24 | 3217396 mkhs
mkhs's picture

But the brain size was about right.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:28 | 3217909 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

heh....zing!!!!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:29 | 3216492 ACP
ACP's picture

Temporalist, how is it possible that 25 year old illegal aliens used to own land that was sold to white landowners by the Spaniards, who killed millions of Aztecs and Mayans by coughing on them?

And by the way, there were 100 separate and distinct Indian tribes in CA ALONE...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples_of_California

...so maybe you'll want to put down that LA RAZA propaganda booklet and learn yourself some real history.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:36 | 3216524 JR
JR's picture

You know what, Temporalist, this is not their country.

“There has been so much concentration on the native Americans found in possession when the white man came that little thought has been given to those who preceded them (such as the Anasazi)… It is time white men understand that most of the Indians found in possession were latecomers, and all too little was known and who had preceded them.” – Louis L’Amour, Jubal Sackett

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:27 | 3217901 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

thats because most native americans were killed and/or evicted.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:15 | 3216694 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"How silly of Mexicans to live in the state that used to be their own country."
...for 26 whole fucking years!
"Ah, mi dulce homeland" (sniffle)

If having millions of Mexicans in your country was such a good thing, Mexico would be heaven on earth

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:02 | 3216872 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

If you can't hold it...

It ain't yours.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:37 | 3216989 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I expected down votes; I didn't think the irony would be lost on so many though (just a sarcastic bit of humor).  I've known illegal immigrants from Europe, South America, Asia...everyone games the system that can unfortunately.

 

Ron Paul on immigration:

"It’s an economic issue more than anything. If our economy was in good health, I don’t think there’d be an immigration problem. We’d be looking for workers and we would be very generous."

"If you subsidize something, you get more of it. We subsidize illegal immigration, we reward it by easy citizenship, either birthright or amnesty. But we force our states and our local communities to pay for the health care and pay for the education. Why wouldn’t they bring their families? And because of our economic conditions, we do need workers. But if we had a truly free market economy, the illegal immigrants would not be the scapegoat. We would probably need them and they would be acceptable."

 

http://www.issues2000.org/Tx/Ron_Paul_Immigration.htm

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 19:39 | 3218155 billsykes
billsykes's picture

They are poor because they are stupid.

And they think america is a great place to be- dumbasses are going off a playbook that is over 40 years out of date. 

Shot on sight, stripped of your rights and a drone to your family's beds. Is all america is good for now.

Learn Portuguese and go to Brazil.

 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:48 | 3216337 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

And, they vote To perpetuate the chaos.

Forward!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:10 | 3216417 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Do you think raising healthcare premiums for young and healthy CITIZENS by 169% (when Obamao told us healthcare costs would lower) is intended on unintended.

Found this on the web.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/02/04/housing-pickle-food-s...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:46 | 3216331 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

What could go wrong when you take on millions of working poor who bleed the social safety nets and whom a majority come from socialiat/fascist political leanings? 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:07 | 3216404 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

The same broken question has been asked by authoritarians at least 6 times in the history of the US. The results have been reasonably good on each occasion.

Would it be heresy to suggest that the ideas behind the American ideal are superior and will ultimately overcome the others if left alone? There is evidence to suggest this been the outcome in the past.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:31 | 3216499 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

Well, yes, just as "heretical" as it is to point out that the USA is not, and never has been, a "White Christian Nation."

Prepare for lambastation from the Birchers...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:07 | 3216657 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Hmm, how about a moral spiritual Republic? I think it was once.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:14 | 3216684 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

There's not really a lot of data on the "morals and spirituality" of the great masses of "mean" and illiterate Americans during the early days of the Republic, but it's a cute idea to cling to, sure.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:25 | 3217893 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

illegals can vote?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 23:10 | 3218733 13thWarrior
13thWarrior's picture

Also give them your guns so they can spread democracy around the globe without questioning authority.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:36 | 3216299 tbone654
tbone654's picture

so we need immigrants.. but not old ones.. to support middle class tax base...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:36 | 3216300 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Obviously the government has known about this for many, many, many years, which would mean that it is not an unintended consequence. My understanding is that it is possible for undocumenteds to collect SS.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:54 | 3216359 Freddie
Freddie's picture

They can get every "benefit" a citizen can plus others that you cannot.  They can get on SS disability as well.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:31 | 3216455 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Could you explain how?  I'm not trying to argue, I just don't understand how that happens if you don't have a SS number.  State programs, I can understand- if you can fog a mirror you can get them, usually (sometimes even if you can't fog a mirror).  But how to you get anything from SS, most especially retirement benefits, if you're not "in the system" with a number to reference?

 EDIT:  Nevermind.  Got it below.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:36 | 3216301 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

ironic that the one group who is paying into the system, is the one who will cause the most problems.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:39 | 3216302 tbone654
tbone654's picture

pfff... revenue neutral by CBO I'm sure...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:42 | 3216314 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Your real point is that's 11 million undocumented fuckers that UBS can't fleece right?

 

Fuck you Cashin you old drunk complicit UBS primary stealer fucking tool.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:49 | 3216340 mr1963
mr1963's picture

Don't forget -- protect their territory from "african" americans...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:00 | 3216354 Mercury
Mercury's picture

In order to get most of those jobs, they have to supply their employers with a Social Security number. Since they are undocumented, they don't have a Social Security number so many have to submit a false Social Security number.

 That, in turn, means a great many have FICA deducted and sent to a Social Security system from which they will never collect. For each, their employers also contribute in their name.

 

I don't think this is true. I believe SS does pay out benefits to fake SS#s as Bruce Krasting has described.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:05 | 3216393 Laddie
Laddie's picture

I believe SS does pay out benefits to fake SS#s as Bruce Krasting has described.

You are quite right. They really know how to game the system. In fact they are AIDED in gaming the system by religious and GOVERNMENTAL workers. The IRS last year admitted they paid out several BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in false tax refungs, including the EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT, to ILLEGAL ALIENS. The average White American has NO IDEA just how much of THEIR tax dollars goes to illegals and LEGAL immigrants.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:25 | 3216480 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I blame the system creators here, not the system gamers.  What would you do differently in a Mexican grape picker's shoes?

I think most of that money goes unclaimed anyway.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:58 | 3216608 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

      The average White American has NO IDEA just how much of THEIR tax dollars goes to illegals and LEGAL immigrants.

How much, Laddie?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:53 | 3216357 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

When Cashin retires and Santelli gets fired, there will no longer be any reason to listen to anything from CNBC, which will be left with nothing more than fully invested fund managers trying to talk others into buying at a higher price.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:55 | 3216601 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Bullish!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:56 | 3216363 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

ss in itself is solvent on a cash flow basis, but not as robustly as in the past, heading towards 2 workers per retiree kind of thing.    when it was first set up, benefits were to be paid starting at the then-top-end of life expectancy.   we have much longer life expectancy now, but never changed ss to match.   

in the near term ss does look quite pathetic.   but as the boomers die off, ss positive cash flow comes back quite strong.  since govt finances are based in perpetuity, this whole thing is a mere speed hump.   

the real problem though is the rest of the govt, on a cash basis, has been borrowing, intragovernementally, from ss positive cash flow.  since the cash flow will go to zero and probably negative for several years (they dying off period),   the fed govt has to get funding from other sources, namely deficit spending enabled by the fed monetization.      as long as this new debt is priced at very low interest rates we could muddle through.   

a knock on problem though is, politicians only plan about 18 months ahead, to the next election cycle.  gop'ers want to balance the books right now, via social bene programs; dems dont seem to want to do anything; and net spending will only increase, along with total debt and total interest expense.   this debt burden is what will make the US hover at 1.5% growth and periodically dip into recession much more frequently than in the past....until the debt/defict burden is lessened---which even with the boomers dying off, doesnt seem likely.   more fragile system, more leverage, more often and worse economic cycles.     do not accrue debt, do not lease things, own your assets; buy securities that are cheap and create cash flow when they are high...there is no buy and hold for at least 10-15 years.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:29 | 3216490 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

And if I had a 10" rod, I'd be a porn star.  But I don't, so I'm not.

The problem isn't just the period of "going negative" in SS due to demographics.  That could be managed if it was the only problem area.  The issue is that SS is only ONE of the many entitlements that are sucking off the same teat.  And many of those other entitlements are in even worse shape, with worse trajectories, than SS.

It all comes from the same money bucket (all trust funds have already been pillaged long ago).  The tank is running dry quickly and at an accelerating rate.  You won't GET to the relief from the passing away of the boomer generation before the entitlement engine runs out of gas to burn. 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 12:36 | 3216520 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

And if I had a 10" rod, I'd be a porn star. But I don't, so I'm not.

But can you act???? LOL

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:32 | 3218301 secret_sam
secret_sam's picture

   And if I had a 10" rod, I'd be a porn star.

Probably not, that's a REALLY competitive business for the male actors.  It's the very rare individual who can perform consistently on-set.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 11:57 | 3216366 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

 

The bigger problem is that half the country has no idea of natual law, or the governing philosphy of the Founding Fathers, or what it means to be an American. This ignorance can be attributed to two problems:

1. Forced government schooling. This is nothing but a tool of the power hungery to keep the population ignorant and indoctrinated in believing in the "expert" ruling class that they must obey.

2. The Immigration Reform Act of 1965. If you can't get the population to accept a ruling class, change the population. The massive influx of socialist brainwashed Eurotrash and third world bottom feeders who know nothing but totalitarian rule, come here for economic advantage, but tend to try and remake their new land in the image of their homeland. Close to half of the population of the US is here as a result of that Act, and that doesn't include illegal aliens. This combined with the "work" and "student" visas makes natural born Americans a displaced minority in their own land, with many of the best job and educational opportunities taken by foriegners.

This was by design, people. The intent is to get rid of freedom loving Americans, and they are well on their way.

The question is now, what will us Americans do about it? Hopfully the same thing our ancestors did - fight and win. My fellow Americans, steel yourselves and set your minds to the fact that you will have to fight to get your country back. This is not a battle you will win at the ballot box; you are going to have to kill your ememies and expel those not killed off of our shores.

 

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