Gold And Stocks Recouple As VIX And Credit Shrug

Tyler Durden's picture


S&P 500 (henceforth - under the Un-Patriot Act - to be known as the Moodys & Fitch 500 at least until such time as Moodys too downgrades the US) futures scrambled up to fill yesterday's day-session gap-down open and then pressed on to run stops to new highs. The Dow did not make new highs - but managed a third day in a row of greater-than-100 point swings and tested back above the magic 14,000 level. Credit markets were absolutely not buying it. VIX was not playing along either (though did compress). Treasury yields rose but nothing on par with stock's surge. The USD fall very modestly - not supportive of stocks. And sure enough, after running those highs, S&P 500 futures cracked back lower into the close with the Dow losing 14,000. A gain of around 0.8 to 1% on the day for stocks with reasonable volume as early haters like JCP and AAPL surged handily on the day by the close. The S&P 500 ended the day recoupling perfectly with Gold on the week...

Quite a 3-day run for the Dow...


and the last few days in ES too...


as HY Credit tells a very different story over the past few days (and no, it's not LBO fears - single-names are not the driver; and no - it's not rotation, as rate duration is negligible still in general and HY is notably cheaper as an asset class than stocks now)... hedgers seem active - even if sellers of cash HY remain stuck...


and VIX remains unamused...


as Gold and the S&P recoupled on the week...


FX markets were a tail of what goes up/down must come down/up as EUR retraced its losses and JPY retraced its gains...


So, it seems that equity buyers up here are the greater fool - since, if you are bullish you would be loading the boat with HY credit (higher yield and cheaper) as opposed to stocks...


Source: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Capital Context (@CapitalContext) LLC is the leader in integrating credit-market data to actively trade equity markets. From our world-renowned intraday 'CONTEXT' and 'SPY Arb' models to the daily long-short equity portfolio, sector-weight updates and tactical asset-allocation strategies, Capital Context offers sophisticated hedge-fund strategies to the active trading community.


Bonus Chart: JCP's miracle recovery (as massive vol compression trades went through to help it on its way to recent VWAPs)... maybe they should face technical default every day?


and AAPL's levitation to January's closing VWAP...

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Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:21 | 3217644 Tim Brasco
Tim Brasco's picture

come on guys join for networking opps 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:27 | 3217672 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I think GS, JPM, and the other usual suspects are selling into these ramp-ups.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:36 | 3217715 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Palladium worth taking a look at.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:18 | 3218261 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Worth diversifying into, even. Love the Russian ballerinas.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:28 | 3217678 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you, again.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:35 | 3217688 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Guess the 42 down votes on the last post weren't enough of a hint. 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:04 | 3217819 fuu
fuu's picture

An anagram of your name is "Scam It Bro"

Also, "Racist Mob" which is just funny.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 19:20 | 3218097 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I knew a Tim Brasco once. He was a douche. Is that you, Tim?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:23 | 3217651 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Hey everybody, we're all getting laid!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:36 | 3217714 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

+1 for channeling Dangerfield.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:27 | 3217674 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

VIX at least held the 20 day.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:31 | 3217692 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Those charts are nothing but the imprint of Bernanke wiping his liquid shitting fucking ass on graph paper.


Fuck you Bernanke and your fucking asshole primary dealers.  Take your fucking "market" and fucking choke on it you fucking crooked prick.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:34 | 3217704 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Dont despair, fo every time a "fuck you bernanke" is posted here on ZH, an angel gets its wings...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:04 | 3218229 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

Most if not all "fuck you Bernankes" are short biased-Durded following wannabe trader morons who just got stopped out.

Too much *HYG underperforms // VIX term structure no good* post have been read.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:17 | 3218256 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Lol, that sounds right, personally i like to imagine how nice it must be for him to come here and see these day after day as a sort of all is well confirmation. I wouldnt be surprised if Kev kept count for him.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 22:01 | 3218488 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Or your just an assuming asshat who mental depth extends no further than the subjects of "long" and "short". Fucking tool.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:42 | 3217733 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I want to call a top but with daily POMO who fucking knows.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:57 | 3217789 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think there is a better chance the next big crash is a crash upward. I mean that sincerely. No sarcasm.


Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:13 | 3217848 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

I think youre 100% on the money Fonz, you guys honestly think Bernank is not planning a huge blow out for retirement?

Btw, fonz, ive been thinking about your idea from this morning and I a thought occurred. In addition to the 3-hr coke and hooker "power hour" lets also talk to John Malone over at Liberty and see if he wants to give us 2 hours of QVC time, 1 before the power hour, 1 after. Then since Cramer is on his way out at CNBC anyway, well sign him on a comission basis to come on the QVC show and sell only one product (SPY of course) all day, every day 364 days a year (remember QVC tastefully plays music on the 25th). He can do his whole fuckin clown show every time and just shout at people to buy TODAY!

What do you think, are you in or are you in?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:19 | 3217873 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

An idea has been born. The first thing we need to do is scratch that music on the 25th and Have a 24hr Bob Pisani festival. Bob spends all day speaking in that surprised tone of voice while describing many tremendous things that are about to occur.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:21 | 3217882 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

PS- I almost forgot the most important part, well be bringing back those 3-am infomercials from the 90's where for a solid hour average people would come on and thank some motivational guru for all the success his 3-step program has brought to their lives.

Itll go like this:

"Thanks Cramer, since I bought SPY, I bought this new corvette!"

"You're the man Jim, since I bought SPY, Ive bought a new hottub for the foreclosure Im squatting in"

"thanks to SPY, my wife and I were able to live our dream of retiring to celebratipn florida"

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:40 | 3217935 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Don't forget Eric Estrada from Chips pitching land in Arkansas.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:56 | 3217990 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Thats the stuff! Maybe Astrada'll want in... i guess itll work as long as his teeth are still pearly white and if not, fuck it, well get him dentures

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 19:23 | 3218107 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

"You don't listen to me, you a Fracking looser. I am Tom Woo..and I have boat loads of prostitues who have sex with watching TV at 3 AM, you a loooosah."

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:24 | 3218275 Karlus
Karlus's picture

My favorite was the nerdy guy with the two bombshells around a pool of wemon. I loved that guys pitch. Almost as good as Ron Jeremy pitching vigor-x

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:42 | 3217734 adr
adr's picture

Yay bullshit stocks, way to go!!!!

Meanwhile us in the real business world are wondering if we're ever going to see an order again. I mean, who needs orders when technica defaults can cause your stock to surge.

Fuck, we don't even need sales, look at Amazon. I see what looks like my product on Amazon's website, yet we've never sold to them. Some of my competitor's product in one there too, yet they haven't sold to Amazon either.

Funny thing is the product is listed at 70% off my MSRP. Wow, Amazon got a really good deal, my accounts are pissed. Amazon says they don't sell counterfeit product though, still haven't seen anything from Amazon in accounts paid. I'm sure when Amazon sells a product using our logo, we'll get the money for it.


Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:43 | 3217739 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

What do a coupling S&P and Gold spawn?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:57 | 3217786 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture


Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:57 | 3218362 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

An 'MF 500'?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 21:37 | 3218438 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

WTF is that headline? Gold and gold stocks looked like shit once again today. $1680 is the greatest resistance ever, then it will be $1690, 1700, 1710 blah blah, fucking blah. Fucking criminals.

Why didn't I just buy physical gold and J & J and forget about it? Gold stocks are the worst investments in any market - ever.

 Gotta bet LongSoupLine owns gold stocks.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:54 | 3217774 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

A top is in this week.. is it thee top? I don't know but using .666 says it is a top.. bitchezz

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:58 | 3218369 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture


Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:15 | 3217856 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Oh look, the market traced a squarewave. I'm sure that's totally natural.

(At least it is in digital circuitry.)

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:15 | 3218252 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Long Sawtooths.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 21:08 | 3218392 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Annoying.  At least crop circles have the common decency to have been produced by aliens -- this shit is absolutely domestic.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:18 | 3217867 jubber
jubber's picture

Did you see the 20 point gap up on the unlock?, what was that about?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 19:23 | 3218103 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

We have a perfect fraud instituted by the Wall street gangsters and Ben Bernanke!  Watch out below because that is their plan for you fools buying into this rally!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 21:01 | 3218378 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Absolutely.  They pump like there's no tomorrow all the while they're selling into your buying frenzy knowing full well its allowing them more time to dump before the impending crash.  I've always believed that saying "what the wiseman does first, the fool does last".

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