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The (Gold)Man Who Invented BRIC Says "Clear Evidence Things Getting Better" As He Resigns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Chairman of Goldman's Asset Management group, unwise supporter of Man Utd, promoter of 'decoupling' myths, and creator of the BRIC mnemonic has decided, with everything looking so tickety-boo, to retire. Whether his great Buy BRICS fail or his BoE leadership bid fail was the final straw is unclear, but for now, the erstwhile permabull (and mocker of market skeptics) leaves us on a bright note:

  • *O'NEILL SAYS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THINGS DOING BETTER ECONOMICALLY

20 years of 'broken record' survival and the Brit throws in his chips now - just as everything looks be taking off? Leave your farewell message below...

The Great Buy BRICs Fail

 

From Goldman Sachs,

After nearly 20 years of outstanding service, Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has decided to retire from the firm later this year.

 

Jim is an influential economist and thought leader, and is regarded as an expert in the world’s foreign exchange and bond markets. Importantly, he has identified revolutionary economic trends, defining the concept of the BRICs which has become synonymous with the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China as growth opportunities of the future. Jim’s BRIC thesis has challenged conventional thinking about emerging markets and, as a result, has had a significant economic and social impact. More recently, his book, The Growth Map, captured his perspectives on the growth markets of today and the future.

 

Jim joined Goldman Sachs in 1995 as a partner in the roles of co-head of Global Economics Research and chief currency economist. He was named head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research in 2001. In 2006, Jim joined the firm’s European Management Committee. In 2010, he took up his current role as chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and since then he has strengthened our research discipline and enhanced communication among investment professionals across asset classes. In each of his roles at the firm, Jim has served our clients by formulating views on global economic and market themes and helping them to be positioned for the most significant investment opportunities.

 

Jim is involved in a number of non-profit organizations. He is chairman and a founding trustee of the London-based charity SHINE and also serves on the board of Teach for All and a number of other charities specializing in education. Jim has been the recipient of many awards, including an honorary doctorate in 2009 from the Institute of Education, University of London, for his educational philanthropy. He is also a member of the board of the Itinera Institute and has been on the board of Bruegel since its creation. Jim is a member of the UK-India Round Table and the UK India Business Council, and is also chairman of the Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership Advisory. He previously served as a non-executive director of Manchester United before it returned to private ownership in 2005.

And for sentimental reasons, here is his final permabullish letter as a Goldman employee:

Are Things That Good?

Even with my often optimistic mood, I never quite expected to be asking this question. However, with January 2013 ending with a rather spectacular performance in the markets, the mood continuing at least for the start of February, and importantly, some rather positive data from many parts of the world, perhaps it is relevant. As I had been expecting, things are certainly starting to look quite a bit better. At some point, the question posed above is going to become very real, since I believe a/ some equity valuations are starting to not seem overly cheap, b/ there are challenges ahead (as discussed in my last Viewpoint) which now include currency issues and, c/ of course, if things are that good, then major developed market bond yields, in particular the US, are on the way up which could create fresh issues.

Further Key Data Improvements.

As anyone who follows these things would expect, as a result of the current easiness of the global financial conditions, we have started 2013 with a number of shorter term leading economic indicators for January turning more positive. This latter development has allowed the markets to pay little attention to many negative, albeit remarkably diverse, Q4 2012 GDP reports, coming from Germany, Japan, the UK and the US.

Amongst the most important indicators for this recent improvement, many of which I have highlighted for their importance before, I would include:

1. Korea’s January trade data showed a much better than expected 11.8% rise in exports. Given Korea is the first country to report, this is a great barometer for what will follow elsewhere, and a sign that world trade is on the rise.

2. The world’s manufacturing confidence indices, as measured by the JPM global PMI rose quite sharply in January by 1.4% to 51.5, suggesting the improving trend seen in Q4 has accelerated.

3. Within these, a number of critical areas to the world economy turned in impressive PMI/ISM prints led by the US of course, with a sizeable bounce to 53.1 from 50.2. While not all components impressed in the US release, the key new orders index rose notably, as it did elsewhere in the world.

4. The Euro zone final PMI rose quite sharply to 47.9, with improvements virtually everywhere with the notable exception of France (and a set back from a large previous bounce in Ireland). Germany is back up to 49.8 and of perhaps greater encouragement, Italy in particular, but also Spain and Greece showed varying degrees of improvement. Although of course, we can’t lose sight of the level still being quite low.

5. While the China official PMI was a touch softer than expected at 50.4, the well-regarded HSBC China PMI rose sharply to 52.3 and there is a suspicion that a broadening of the sample size in the official survey might have affected the result.

6. Back to the US, something that really caught my attention was the December personal income report, which showed a huge rise in incomes on the month, almost definitely helped by early receipt of dividends and bonuses. However, the eye-catching part was the associated news that the personal  savings rate was reported at 6.5%. Four and a bit years on from the depths of the crisis, if this were the “new” level, it would be a huge change, and yet another indication that the US has adjusted quite impressively and as needed.

7. And finally, back to China where it was reported that the 2012 Balance of Payments current account came in at $214 bn, which on my calculations, is “just” 2.6% of GDP. This suggests that China is very different than it was in 2008 and before.

However, every week it is possible to find some data disappointments. The UK PMI slowed to 50.8 adding to a belief that the UK can always be relied on to disappoint these days, although given the bounce the previous month and where the UK has been, this is “not bad”. Japan also reported some slightly disappointing data but given the forward looking nature of markets and given the policy issues there, this was merely a sideshow.

So Close Our Eyes, Go On Holiday Until May?

Maybe this is the easiest thing to do. Certainly lots of the proprietary indicators linked to the highest frequency data I have become accustomed to using, suggest that the absolute rise of equities and the relative outperformance of equities versus bonds is set to continue.

Against that backdrop, some of the moves since November have been so large, one could easily imagine some corrections. Of course, these days when these things happen they usually shake our confidence.

The media is hugely focused on the “Great Rotation” idea, something which I focused on in my first Viewpoint for 2013, and lots of analysts are now citing the sizeable weekly flow of funds data as either confirmatory signs or in some cases, a reverse indicator. Personally, I have a bit more sympathy with the reverse indicator notion, although my core belief is that the markets will follow where both valuation and cyclical momentum lead us, and to get too wrapped-up in fund flow data is dangerous.

As I did discuss with a number of people last week, while I did and still do expect more rotation from bonds to equities, this doesn’t in itself suggest that equities will certainly continue to rally. I have learnt repeatedly through my career to not get to too excited about following fund flow data, as interesting as it is, since it is no guarantee of asset price movements. Or put differently, it is more likely that asset price performance leads to shifts in asset allocation, rather than the opposite.

The other point I would also like to mention, is according to one of the more cautious valuation techniques I have learnt to follow, so called CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings), the US market is certainly not cheap today, and neither are Australia nor Mexico (see table below). Such a cautious approach does not mean these or any markets will stop rallying but it is a sign to be careful and that these markets could be especially vulnerable to disappointing and surprising news.

Many other markets do remain quite cheap, including the other seven of our so-called Growth Markets, as well as Japan and much of continental Europe. This explains why, as I have been suggesting, I would still concentrate my bullishness there.

Other Things That Caught My Eye.

Lots of interesting things going on all over the place as usual, and the following caught my attention this past week:

1. There was a notable decline in the Korean Won, the Taiwan Dollar and other Asian currencies last week. This might be a coincidence but it might also, which I believe is likely, be linked to the weakness of the Yen. If true, this is an additional reason why the Japanese currency decline is becoming more and more dependent on Japanese monetary policy truly driving this. It is quite interesting that over the weekend the Japanese Finance Minister mentioned that the Yen decline is a consequence of their policy, rather than the policy itself. Going forward, I suspect this aspect is going to be getting more focus from policymakers elsewhere.

2. It is most interesting to read that both Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba have already returned from China to Europe to extend their football careers, suggesting that all is not well with this part of the “new“ China. It seems as though aspiring Chinese clubs are not quite prepared to pay up for marketing talent as some of the hype had suggested.

3. In contrast, the one and only David Beckham turning up at PSG was a master stroke for both him and the Qatari owners, and I don’t recall ever seeing such a Parisian love affair with anything British.

The FT had a fascinating as well as a somewhat scary article on Saturday, highlighting the extraordinary gap growing between London and rest of Britain. I have discussed this before, and as if we didn’t have enough challenges in the UK, over the medium to long term, this is a huge challenge for the next generation and many less advantaged. A particularly eye-catching part of the story was that an affluent Surrey suburb called Elmsbridge has a housing stock whose value is bigger than the whole of the city of Glasgow. Not far behind this in terms of shock factor, the 10 most expensive London boroughs have a housing stock equivalent to that of North Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland put together. I don’t know what the solution could be (becoming a nation of Germanic style renters?) but I had joked in late November to the Westminster Property Association that perhaps they had more reason to consider a referendum than Scotland. Perhaps the rest of the country might like that!

Sporting Legends.

Another great win for United at the weekend with Mr. Rooney starting to answer some of his critics down by the River Thames at Fulham. I had the pleasure of being there before dashing off to Shepherd’s Bush for a reunion of the one and only “Family” with Roger Chapman in fine voice. And for those of you from either my generation or earlier or even Leicester, their appearance was introduced on stage by the equally legendary Frank Worthington.

Anyhow here’s to the mood and spirit of January 2013 markets living on and surprising everyone, perhaps even me!

Jim O’Neill

Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

 

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Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:46 | 3217034 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Fuck off, loser!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:48 | 3217047 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Another squid slithers into the sunset.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:50 | 3217059 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Another squid slithers into the sunset.

 

Give it a couple of months and he'll be in government or running a central bank.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:00 | 3217095 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

"Clear evidence things are getting better."

Therefore they must be getting worse (as if we didn't already know).

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:21 | 3217168 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Let this guy take care of Washington & Wall Street: http://www.break.com/index/the-most-insane-news-story-you-ll-see-today-2412756

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:49 | 3217263 knukles
knukles's picture

This guy has had a terrible record as the leader of an investment management shop, particularly what with the collection of the smartest human being on the planet (or some such tripe as they've publicly described themselves) blessed with being anointed by God to Do His Work.  I mean, how the hell can the number have been so fucking bad?

Just wonderin'....

Maybe Jimbo's not the problem.
Nawh, couldn't be or they'd a promoted him.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 22:35 | 3218604 philipat
philipat's picture

But in his defence, he is a ManU supporter. Can't be all bad.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:00 | 3217098 blu
blu's picture

Yup yup.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:07 | 3217121 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Hey O'Neil, go suck dogballs you POS

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 23:29 | 3218802 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They know what is coming, and when it hits even their govt. useful idiots will be looking to string them up.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:46 | 3217035 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Enjoy your private island... I hope it sinks...

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:47 | 3217040 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

His sample size: his immediate colleagues and coworkers, who have all upgraded from Mercs to Ferraris over the past few years.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:48 | 3217043 texas goldfinger
texas goldfinger's picture

All the work with educational charities must mean he likes young boys.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:48 | 3217044 Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

There are 70,000 plus Ravens fans in M&T Bank Stadium welcoming the "heroes" home and their gun grabbing Governor OWEMalley was kind enough to provide national guard military vehicles to transport the thugs from their parade to their place of worship. People literally shedding tears of joy and sorrow in the street, taking their kids out of school and calling in sick to their jobs to attend.

Panem et circenses

  We deserve everything that is coming our way.


Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:52 | 3217067 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It would have been way better if 70,000 plus 49ers fans were in Candlestick Park welcoming the "heroes" home and their gun grabbing State Senator Feinstein was kind enough to provide national guard military vehicles to transport the thugs from their parade to their place of worship. People literally shedding tears of joy and sorrow in the street, taking their kids out of school and calling in sick to their jobs to attend.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:19 | 3217636 Jethro
Jethro's picture

District 1, Disctirct 4, what does it matter?  I might might watch the Hunger Games, er, I mean Superbowl if it was literally a fight to the death.  And, if the halftime show consisted of banksters dueling to the death with office instruments....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 01:23 | 3219070 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

yes bruv if they take a second day off wally mart and Big Mac are gonna sack 'em.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:48 | 3217045 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Who better than Ahhnold to say it

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRxaXmXvjnU

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:48 | 3217049 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, all is well! Even god can't sink it!

NOW GET THIS FUCKING CHILD OUT OF MY WAY SO I CAN GET IN THE LAST REMAINING LIFEBOAT!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:52 | 3217060 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

by "clear," does he mean transparent?

 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:50 | 3217061 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

swallow a retirement grenade at your going away party fuckstick.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:53 | 3217072 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

JIM O'NEILL

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:54 | 3217074 PUD
PUD's picture

IT'S TRUE! THINGS HAVE NEVER BEEN BETTER FOR GOLDMAN!! GOT A NEW CENTRAL BANK UNDER ITS CONTROL, RECORD PROFITS, STILL DOING GODS WORK...FANTASTIC TIME TO BE ALIVE!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:56 | 3217081 Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

Call me!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:59 | 3217093 blu
blu's picture

"Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out."

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 14:59 | 3217094 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Nice talk when they make 'em walk the plank. The BS walker is dead. Long live the BS walker.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:04 | 3217109 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Would you want to stay for the fireworks that are coming? Hell no. He's taking his plunder and moving to Belgium I bet. These pricks will all get it in the end one day when we resort to torches and pitchforks. There will be no place to hide. 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:13 | 3217148 blu
blu's picture

Sadly, they won't have any trouble hiding in America. Our societal duplicity is bought and paid for. Every high-brow crook on the planet will come here, including the Saudis.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 18:45 | 3217951 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Off to pop bottles of Bollinger in London, more like it.  That is where you go when you get really good at stealing other peoples money.  He'll probably get knighted by the f*$%ing Queen!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:05 | 3217110 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Fucking Wanker. I love how all these thieving wankers always have that long list of charities they work for. Fuck You O'Neill, hope you die very soon

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:12 | 3217136 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

GS shilsters are not allowed to retire. No doubt his CV has already been forwarded for the "Spanish job".

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:15 | 3217152 TrumpXVI
Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:39 | 3217229 W74
W74's picture

At least provide an abstract.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 16:19 | 3217385 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I thought everybody recognized, "Well, Bye."

From the movie, "Tombstone" (1993) where Curly Bill Brocius (Powers Boothe) says that to Wyatt Earp (Ken Russell) as he's leaving town on his buckboard after losing the battle for control of the town of Tombstone, AZ.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:19 | 3217163 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Someone is buying the shit out of YUM

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:30 | 3217189 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

See ya!

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:31 | 3217196 venturen
venturen's picture

Better for who?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 15:32 | 3217198 venturen
venturen's picture

where is he going...Treasury, FED?, Vegas...no not vegas there are no sure things there and that is chump change.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 16:01 | 3217309 Melson Nandela
Melson Nandela's picture

Now he can watch every Man U match on their way to the Premiership and and make money short. I would be envious but then again I´m living in Abkhazia which isn´t even a country, with +12 , Sun, Cheap Alcohol, Great Food, and No Government.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 16:22 | 3217392 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

*O'NEILL SAYS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THINGS DOING BETTER ECONOMICALLY

 

And that is why he is leaving because no right minded man would leave in bad times when all is about to implode, ..right?

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 16:29 | 3217418 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Shanghai index is exactly where the other indexes should be also.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 17:55 | 3217783 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the truth has hit him right between the eyes! 

Like Moses he has seen the burning bush! 

I hope he can see the initials on them! 

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 20:38 | 3218316 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

If it wasn't for bank bailouts he'd be working til he's 70. Overrated man.

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 22:22 | 3218558 Bruin4
Bruin4's picture

ass rape this motherfucker

Tue, 02/05/2013 - 23:59 | 3218897 jharry
jharry's picture

In some ways things are getting better.  The tennis shoes I bought at Wally World only cost 20 dollars.  The shirt I purchased was 6 and the pants I now wear were only 15.  So in terms of silver, I bought an entire day's wardrobe for about one dollar old money. 

Gas is only 4 fiat dollars a gallon so that's about half a quarter in old money.  Of course I used to make 2 dollars an hour in 1964 which computes to about 60 bucks an hour  or so in now bucks. The modern minimum wage has a long way to go to match that.

And my 1985 pickup still runs well. And my 1999 Nissan Maxima is still a dream car, though a bit tattered at the edges.  I am not going to the doctor very often, so that expense is nil. I don't eat much meat anymore.  A chicken which costs five dollars, or less than 25 cents old money lasts me about a week.

So things aren't too bad, but for some of my neighbors, the ones without jobs,things are looking grim. So we share and give each other work.

 

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 01:33 | 3219082 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

JO is way over qualified; coulda shoulda waited till Krugman retired; perfect crystall ball economist and had him down as top drawer candidate.
Oh well our loss.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 07:30 | 3219338 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Goldman is the key to all of this.

When you see their placemen taking a bow and slipping out the side door - then u know...ITS ON!

Still plenty of them in place - BOE, ECB, Italy etc. - so just keep on dancing, folks !;o)

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 12:45 | 3220287 xialala
xialala's picture

What the F***?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!