No Inflation? Commodities Highest Ever For This Time Of Year

Tyler Durden's picture

While every central banker and policy-leech spews forth the government-supplied statistics on inflation - noting that all is well, carry on - we recently pointed out that Gas Prices are their highest ever for this time of year. Of course, the standard supply constraints (or technical) reasoning was applied to dismiss this as transitory (even though it has continued to rise since); but what is perhaps more worrisome is the broad-based nature of the real inflation that is leaking into our global supply chain. The 24-commodity heavy S&P GSCI index (widely recognized as a leading measure of general price movements and inflation in the world economy) has never been as high in early February as it is currently - ever. And with global growth stagnating at best, it seems a tough call to blame 'recovery' for this inflating (fastest pace in 8 years) raw material price leaking cost-push inflation (and margin-compression) into the real economy.




and the fastest rise in 8 years...


Charts: Bloomberg

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hedgeless_horseman's picture

Glad we grass feed our cattle on pasture.


Last night's dinner of Steal au Poivre with unctous sauce and garden sweet potato casserole.

mayhem_korner's picture



I just checked the tags on my kids new clothes.  Even they are made of corn.

Popo's picture

Is that a glass of milk?    LOL.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Raw milk from our cow; it has not gone up in price, and I know exactly what is in it. 

Has the price of Pepsi-Coke many feed their kids for dinner gone up?

TrumpXVI's picture

MMmmm....Pepsi.  It's not just for breakfast anymore.

Jason T's picture

"By The Sweat of Hedgeless Horseman's Brow He Will Eat His Bread."


Amen Brother.

a growing concern's picture

Don't go talking too loudly about raw milk, HH. That's terrist talk, you know.

Midas's picture

I like the candle.  I raise my own whales for the blubber to make candles.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Libbey glassware, and I think this style is still made in USA

LBY stock is up 25%+ over 12 months, in nominal USD terms.

ich1baN's picture

I am in Beijing right now.... there is no such thing as steak or that fancy French word here. My mouth is watering like Niagra Falls.

The raw milk is something I have always wanted to try, but it is illegal to sell where I used to live. Gubment sayz its bad for me. They always know best.

Motorhead's picture

Sweet potatoes?  Man, bring on the fries...or yams, hehe.

LawsofPhysics's picture

The state just called.  It's about the taxes on your meadow...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Not in our neck of the woods.  When the local governements run out of money, they will be at your doorstep.  The only thing that is assured moving forward.  Enjoy that while it lasts.  Some of the southern states still enjoy these types of exemptions.  Our operations in Georgia and South Carolina do, but water is becoming a problem as we spar with the developers/profiteers of urban sprawl.

Red Raspberry's picture

Illinois doesn't tax farmland at it's sale price either.  It's a big problem for counties that don't have industry.  The home owning property owners have to bear the burden.  At the same time the farmers ejoy no sales tax on farm items plus federal subsidies.  And the states promotion of ethanol in gas.

NidStyles's picture

Would you mind adopting a 32 year old former Infantryman turned Economist and his wife?

hedgeless_horseman's picture




Your wife (please send photo) would need to wear a uniform, and if you are a Keynesian economist, then you just might be qualified to help us with the horses.


NidStyles's picture

LMAO! Not Keynesian, and my wife looks better with a tight skirt, she has a nice ass.

Anonymous peon's picture

If adopted would not you and your wife become brother and sister............

NidStyles's picture

Doesn't matter, did you see that steak?

tango's picture


Got a ribeye yesterday at Publix (just cut), added a rub of brown sugar, Pimenton, salt, garlic red wine and olive oil then grilled an hour later with baked potato - my once a month treat to myself.  I remember the farm and my gripe with milk was the onion taste!  Butter was incredible though. I had a Valpolicella instead of milk (lol)

Pseudo Anonym's picture

pfft, you wish

Got a ribeye yesterday at Publix (just cut)...

you ate meat glue ( (

bon appetit

Pseudo Anonym's picture

pfft, i call bullshit on your photo of steak.  i can tell it is meat glue, not a real steak:

bon appetit

mayhem_korner's picture



At some point, the yield on the 10-YR will start to behave like this, too. 

(and that won't be very nice, will it Precious?)

derek_vineyard's picture

just as long as the 10 year styas 2-5% below the inflation rate.

inflation is the feds only goal----so people nominally see higher numbers but in real terms are surrendering their standard of living

Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Ive heard a lot of rumblings of people planning to go long nat gas so I expect a slamdown to $2.50 fairly soon

mayhem_korner's picture



The shale gas investors already went long natural gas over the past 5-8 years.  (And it hasn't worked out too well for 'em).

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is not the droids inflation you're looking for. Move along.

TotalCarp's picture

This is starting to have a pleasant whiff of 2008 doesnt it? Commodities powering up and all...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I don't know what you're talking about." - Bernanke

TotalCarp's picture

Nah off course not... Transitory.. Not reflected in cpi.. Housing market is solid and all that jazz.. Kunts...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Mind your own P's & Q's TotalCarp or the IRS shark will bite your fins off." - Jack Lew

TotalCarp's picture

I seriously wonder some times if we are all gonna wake up in gitmo soon enuff. But i guess they will start with tylers, not small fish like moi.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Where's Orly to talk about this horrible deflation?

papaswamp's picture

Careful or a drone will be circling over your house.

Yen Cross's picture

  Keep printing you douchebag Bernanke! The 10year is up 5bps and the vix is down over 5%? This pinball machine is set on [full tilt]today!

scatterbrains's picture

Just playing what if here..  what happens if the fed gov. cut spending by half (deflationary) at the same time announcing an official dollar devaluation (inflationary) ? Not that they would ever cut spending... voluntarily.

JethroTull's picture

There was a guy on the radio who was blaming speculators for the hike in prices. Was he tellign the truth?

NoWayJose's picture

So if you buy a 10 year treasury yielding next to nothing, you are an investor, but if you buy a commodity you are a speculator?

yatikto's picture

yes. if you buy items that people use for consumption or manufacturing to horde and not use, then you are a speculator.

Col_Sanders's picture


I only play Alliance.

mayhem_korner's picture



Even if speculators were to drive up prices, they need the liquidity to play the game.  The Fed's ceaseless liquidity spigot is at the root.  And this is nothing compared to what commodity inflation could be if money velocity ever picks up.

(but your new shoes are worn at the hee-e-e-e-e-e-ls...)

TotalCarp's picture

Are you missing /sarc tag or are you actually a moron or a troll???

TotalCarp's picture

Somebody has to say it:

Fuck you bernanke. And you krugman.

NoWayJose's picture

With the world awash in liquidity, there are few places to go.  If there really is a rotation out of bonds, it all will not go to equities but rather a lot will go to commodities.  Of course, with all the liquidity, there is no longer any concern about supply and demand for commodities, since the demand is just futures contracts.

devo's picture

Great comment. Spot on. Some will go into equities (as we're seeing), though.