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Byron Wien Warns "Oblivious Markets" Of 20% Correction

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just as markets can stay irrational longer than traders can stay solvent, so Byron Wien warns all the market-watching self-confirming bulls that "markets slough off bad news until they don't." Blackstone's top-man fears the "oblivious markets" are missing the point that nothing has been solved and that a "big battle between entitlement cuts and raising the debt ceiling" is coming. Shrugging off the anchor's insistence that earnings have been 'pretty good', Wien states reality as expectations are rolling over and performance following. With people complacent and investors euphoric (ignoring European risk re-emergence and depression and Middle East tensions), Wien's brief clip concludes with his expectation of a 200 point correction in the S&P 500 in H1 2013.


 

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Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:37 | 3221816 knukles
knukles's picture

And Byron's track record is of course....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:42 | 3221827 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

...Impeccable.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:46 | 3221835 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Perhaps a second opinion from Joe Granville is in order.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:04 | 3221873 kurt
kurt's picture

You're my brother Fredo...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:19 | 3221881 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

You broke my heart.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:35 | 3222061 Zer0head
Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:49 | 3222084 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Can we finally rid ourselves of these market cliches, "markets slough off bad news until they don't"?

Come on, lets use some new force multiplyers like, "the penis stays erect until viagra is needed", or "the vagina stays slippery until menopause", or "the farts don't stink unless they're silent and deadly".

Come on folks, lets get creative.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:20 | 3222127 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Keep listening to jews telling you what you should do with your money... That always works out well because they're 100% dedicated to helping YOU out as much as possible..

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:30 | 3222136 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Oh look, its a grey-haired "joo" baiter. Isn't it time for your nap, grandpa?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 00:55 | 3222249 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Couldn't Mr. & Mrs. Wien come up with a better name than Byron.  It doesn't command people to listen.

My rant is done.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 08:15 | 3222490 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Trader Timm

~~~

There's a big difference between HATE & CAVEAT EMPTOR...

When I see a box of sushi at a gas station mini mart... I don't HATE it, I just think twice before buying it [& would advise others to do so as well]...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:30 | 3222791 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I don't get the point in using race labels, ~~~'s or bolding every other WORD and random CAPITALS.

I'd love to see points being made without trying to disparage entire swaths of the human race.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:26 | 3222813 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'd like to see entire swaths of the human race NOT trying to steal my money, oppressing other peoples by 'Apartheid' policies, & generally being a pain in the ass...

~~~

But that's just me...

~~~

& on this comment

"I don't get the point in using race labels"

Evidently you must have a problem with your own government & almost all law enforcement, because they're far more guilty of the practice than francis_sawyer...

Instead ~ you think that more people need to be like TraderTimm... Trader extraordinaire... Shuffling scraps of paper [denominated in joobux] back & forth, [in rigged markets] to the benefit of all mankind... Those 'points' should be abundantly clear... Granny & her catfood salute you...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:14 | 3221897 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

20 percent correction at this time?

I don't see it.

I've got DOW at 30,000.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-steak-for.html

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:22 | 3221917 BeagleOne
BeagleOne's picture

Let's get real. A 47% decline is more likely.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:52 | 3222089 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Can you take your crappy blog and shove it where the sun don't shine.

All of a sudden, again, we're getting douche bags trying to pimp their worthless blogs on ZH.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:39 | 3222145 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

Have you seen the articles Tyler's run the past few days, including this one?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 02:11 | 3222338 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Marginaly better than your call on "(?)"

Baterr a drubnkithen a (<?>)"

 

HOLY FUTHETJHER FUNKIN SCHIZA MONKEY I THOUDGHT I WAS GONNA A FUK A MONKY AND NOT FUK ANYTHIN ELZA

 

 

 

MBI : So far ; thanks guys...........

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:40 | 3221823 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Im getting the feeling that the media will at this point have anyone on just to make a bearish call for a talking point. 

Tell you what guys- lets get a pool started to see who can guess the number of days before Bob Prechter is asked to come on TV and predicts a 50% correction.

Claim your slot in the reply column, Im going with 9 days...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:58 | 3221858 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I don't know about Prechter but I say within two weeks if we don't get a 20% correction Marc Faber whips his balls out and chases Becky Quick around the studio on air trying to create a panic to get his damn correction.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:06 | 3221877 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

All the while exclaiming,

"Make it rain !"

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:20 | 3221913 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

I can actually hear that in his accent in my head... I need to see a doctor...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:21 | 3221915 chump666
chump666's picture

For real?  Marc made that bet with his balls?  What a player.

This rally has blown out ever stop, top on the planet.  Funniest part say 2007 comparing the meltup comparison, the US ecomomy was kinda thinking it was all rosy before the SHTF.  Now, it's half way dead.  So, a crash in 2013 will blow up in the Feds face.

Here's hoping.

But add 20% old-school crash onto a 30% HFT supports collapse crash.  I'm on 50% neg...at some-point soon.  Faber called 40%

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:34 | 3222055 max2205
max2205's picture

Ben will rather close the markets for a month or more than have another collapse. Bet on it

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:25 | 3221926 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Can somebody here hack ZH and post an "Apple Declares Bankruptcy" article headline and see what market chaos ensues? Only after we've properly loaded up on puts, of course.

Tyler? Are you in?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:33 | 3221941 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

+1 bro, I cant tell you how often Ive thought of that...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:57 | 3222098 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

But, who reads ZH other than a bunch of domestic terrorists and DHS "active shooter" wanna be's?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:41 | 3221824 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

whatever. sell in may, btfd in july.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:56 | 3221854 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I was planning on being in cash by mid-March this year at the latest.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:57 | 3221980 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

I'd say that's spot on. First bonds become worthless, then stocks crash.

Do buy some physical these days if you don't already have it.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:27 | 3223356 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Yeah, I already have it. :)

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:42 | 3221825 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Obliviouz Marketz, Bitchez!  20% would hurt a lot of people, maybe worse than in 2008.  Things are much more delicate now (ref Quinn article here at ZH earlier).

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:51 | 3221845 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I would argue that artifically high prices now will hurt much much more in the long run.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:44 | 3221830 de3de8
de3de8's picture

And I expect the sun to rise and set tomorrow.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:59 | 3221859 Jason T
Jason T's picture

a couple years back, while on bloomberg radio, bryon said something that stuck with me..he said he went to China and when he got back to JFK airport, "he couldn't tell if he was coming from a 3rd world country or coming back to one?"

 

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:00 | 3221864 Keegan11
Keegan11's picture

BTFD bitchez!!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:31 | 3221902 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Caveat emptor.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:15 | 3221898 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 hourly just keeps pushing higher.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-consolidates-push/

 

You could say this is out of control, but that would be a statement of the obvious.

 

GDP shrinks.  Earnings 1% less year over year. Markets up 10%.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:07 | 3221973 Nid
Nid's picture

I fucking hate this market and I'm being tortured on the short side of it....fact is, there is no fucking stock for sale...no supply. So the snarky pricks who frequent the CNBC studio (aka, NYSE), the algo-fucks and the HFT cock weasels will continue to have their way with this piece of shit, joke of a market for a bit longer.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:00 | 3222070 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

It is unwise to short this market. Thou shalt not go against the Bernank. In QEconomy mkt only goes up. If mkt goes down even a teenie weenie nominal bit Benny will print more Benny bucks. If you think it's bad now just wait for NGDP targeting. I don't believe there will ever be a large correction or dip in the dollar denominated stock market. It will continue to go higher in nominal terms until the dollar is destroyed and at that point the lights will be turned off and everyone will just go home with worthless digits in their stock portfolios. Of course, this prediction is completely dependent upon the actions of the central planners. If the Fed stops or even slows its purchases then you will get your deflationary dip. I'm no investment guru, but from the looks of it front running the central planners is the only thing anyone can do at this point. Also, you have to keep tabs on the actions of a very important wild card - the IMF. This institution prints SDRs. Could there be an SDR for dollar/euro swap deal in the future? And, what are the implications of that? Global central banking, afterall, is a technocrats ultimate wet dream.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:40 | 3222067 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

Take notice folks the difference of the velocity of the market when it is going up versus going down. This market is currently being primed for not just a correction but a Massive super fast collapse. 

The Algos move the market higher in a grinding format. Almost begrudgingly. However, whenever there are corrections the chunks and the speed are significantly greater. 

They are taking out the leaders one by one. Apple, now Amazon and so forth. This is a rally without true leaders.

They have tested out all the weapons. the algo flash crashes. 

Circuit Breakers WILL NOT HELP. The Fraud and the helplessness of the structure - IE: MF Global, Knight Capital, Nasdaq are good examples the system is perfect for a rapid 50-60% correction.

IT WILL HAPPEN SO FAST - THAT EVEN IF YOU ARE SHORT - YOU WILL BE FRIGHTENED BY THE SPEED AND THE CARNAGE.

I trade this stuff every day -  I see this in small doses every day. 

The lack of volume will make this worse.... the talk of ETF's like GLD and SLV being worthless? Try the paper behind COMEX - where is their Gold and Silver ? THey only have 2.5 -4% physical and that is supposedly with a bank.

 

Good Luck 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:03 | 3222106 ZeroChance
ZeroChance's picture

"...earnings have been pretty good!  I mean, expectations came down, but 2/3rds of the companies still met or beat them..."

hahahahhahha, this right here is real hard-hitting financial news and analysis for intelligent grown-ups.

Expectations came down in a most sorry way and only 2 out of 3 companies met the reduced earnings hopes and that is "pretty good".  The same ol' comedy and sheer blindness we've come to love ... be stunned at.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:09 | 3222111 H E D G E H O G
H E D G E H O G's picture

my dart in the calendar tells me that Friday, February 15th, 2013 is not going to be a pretty day in the "markets". just sayin'.........................................

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:59 | 3222165 Nid
Nid's picture

Expiration day? Tough call.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 01:27 | 3222284 Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

Somethings coming and it's gonna be big.  I work as a hedge fund accountant and in the 4th quarter redemptions were rampant in all of the funds my group does the bookkeeping on.  Some funds had 40% of their value redeemed!!!! Closing the books for January 2013 and although the funds made some money, those redemptions back in December have eaten into the management fees which have been cut in half.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 05:01 | 3222415 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Those 4th Q redemptions are all tax related, nothing to see there. But something changed in the last month. The DC area malls are now far more packed than they were around Christmas! Something is going on, but I don't know what it is. Perhaps all those Bernanke Bucks are finally hitting the real economy?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 03:32 | 3222378 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Funny thing you all have written what you have. The instinct hit me on Tuesday.  Something is strange. Real damm strange. Stranger then the usual strange. Super strange. 

   This shit has been total twilight zone for the past two years, but just this Tuesday this particular "strange" tapped me in the gut.

 

My brain is telling me,

      "You know what man. This shit will continue through into next year. Believe me. Velocity is in the toilet and the only thing the free market has a handle on right now is the flusher. Oh yeah, I new you was gonna say that. You right. Velocity be in da flusher, but da Bernank got da printer. And he gots da 'choppa'. So this ride aint over anytime soon."

 

The gut and mind are at odds. The gut is usually correct. 

 

   Ha ha! Mind said, "usually"

 

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 03:25 | 3222386 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

BTW. I am aware I have a jive talkin brotha in my head, which may explain the state of my confusion.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 08:33 | 3222504 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Hey Brian, call Bernanke, he is the only investor left, were all out of this Casino!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 08:51 | 3222524 Kingkongballs827
Kingkongballs827's picture

PVC Gun Burial Tube. Holds 3 long rifles Ak47, SKS, AR15 plus ammo and gold & silver. Check it out here.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/160965515323?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649

 

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:56 | 3222691 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Kingkongballs827....you selling somethin?

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