This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,

There have been several articles as of late discussing that the next great secular bull market has arrived.  Historically, secular bear markets have averaged about 14 years, and considering that we began writing about the current secular bear market cycle in early 2000, that would put the current cycle about 2 years away from it historic average.  However, the reality is that this cycle is currently unlike anything that we have potentially witnessed in the past.  With massive central bank interventions, artificially suppressed interest rates, sub-par economic growth, high unemployment and elevated stock market prices it is likely that the current secular bear market may be longer than the historical average.  In either event we are likely closer to the end than the beginning and the next major stock market correction will likely be the last for this cycle.

There are several fundamental reasons from valuations to the current level of interest rates that support this viewpoint.  The first chart shows the inflation adjusted, or “real”, ratio of the stock market to the economy as measured by GDP. With the economic recovery, such as it is, currently in its fourth year, the market to GDP ratio is beginning to push levels that are normally consistent with cyclical bull market peaks rather than where secular bear markets have ended.

SP500-MarketCap-GDP-020413

Furthermore, secular bull markets do not begin when prices are already stretched well above their long term growth trend. I often use the “rubber ball” analogy to express the movement of prices relative to their trends. Like throwing a rubber ball into the air – the momentum of the throw can make it seem like it is temporarily defying the laws of gravity. However, the effect of momentum will fade as the pull from gravity increases on the ball until it reaches its maximum height. The ball will then quickly revert back to earth. The same goes for the financial markets.

The chart below shows, very importantly, that secular BULL markets do not begin when prices are already trading well above their long term growth trend. Very much like past secular bear markets – prices can remain above their long term growth trend for quite some time until they eventually “mean revert.”

SP500-price-deviationfromtrend-020413

These reversions take prices to a position that is an equal distance below the long term growth trend. As the chart shows – if you had moved out of the market in early 2000 and gone into bonds you will still be well ahead of those that had stayed in the stock market.

Not surprisingly, when prices are elevated well beyond their long term trends, valuations are at levels that are normally associated with secular bull market peaks rather than the troughs where secular bull markets are usually born.

The chart below uses the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E (price to earnings) ratio which has been inflation adjusted. The immediate argument to this analysis is that some analyst on television stated the “valuations are cheap based on ‘forward earnings expectations’ which are below the long term average.” There are two huge flaws in that statement:

1) The long term median P/E as shown below is based on TRAILING REPORTED earnings. Not forward operating earnings which are full of accounting issues. This is an “apples to oranges” comparison.

2) More importantly, forward earnings are ALWAYS overly optimistic by as much as 33% historically. Therefore, the valuation argument is generally wrong at the outset.

SP500-PE-Reversions-020413

This brings us to the “stocks are cheap based on interest rates” argument. Despite the fact that prices and valuations are stretched well above their historic norms this does not deter the media from finding some other flawed argument to try and lure “suckers”… um…I mean…investors into the Wall Street casino.

The chart below is the “Fed Model” which is the basis for the “stocks are cheap because earnings yield is higher than bond yields.”

Fed-Model-020413

Following this model would have kept you out of stocks primarily when you should have been in and vice versa. This is due to the intervention by the Fed to suppress interest rates to support economic growth. These suppressions have driven interest rates consistently lower over time and have been the primary factor in the creation of one bubble after the next. Subsequently, when the Fed raises interest rates, it causes a dislocation in the markets.

The fallacy of the model is quite simple. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS EARNINGS YIELD. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the P/E ratio whereby corporate earnings are divided by the price of the market. However, as an investor in a stock you do not receive the earnings yield in the form of a cash payment.   However, YOU DO receive the interest yield from bonds.

This is a very, very flawed analysis and one that should be forever stricken from your investment valuation models.

Nothing Organic About It

No matter how you slice the data - the simple fact is that we are still years away from the end of the current secular bear market. The mistake that analysts, economists and the media continue to make is that the current ebbs and flows of the economy are part of a natural, and organic, economic cycle. If this was the case then there would be no need for continued injections of liquidity into the system in an ongoing attempt to artificially suppress interest rates, boost housing or inflate asset markets.

Nothing shows this more clearly than the amount of excess bank reserves, which is the direct byproduct of QE programs, which exploded higher last week by $46.4 billion.

QE-Fed-BalanceSheet-SP500-020413

These liquidity pushes directly correlate with market ramp ups – not improving economics or fundamentals.

Of course, this is also why each time these programs come to an end the financial markets face steep corrections and economic growth plunges.

Into The Danger Zone

It is with this background that we continue to harp upon the dangers that are currently building in the markets. While no two market cycles are ever the same - they generally behave similarly over time. I have posted the following chart several times lately showing the high degree of correlation between the market bubble prior to 2007 and currently.

I expect that the chart will begin to decouple somewhat in the months ahead as there is not a relative crisis immediately available.   However, come May when the debt ceiling issue resurfaces, or there is a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, or some other exogenous event crops up – stock prices are likely to correct very sharply.

SP500-2004-2008-vs-2009-Replay-020613

Using a weekly analysis, to slow down the day to day volatility of the market – the market currently cannot achieve a higher level of its overbought status. It is “pegged out”, “maxed,” or whatever other term you want to use to describe the extreme nature of the overbought condition that currently exists.

WilliamsR-Analysis-020413

The chart on the next page overlays this overbought/oversold long term weekly indicator with a weekly chart of the S&P 500.

WilliamsR-Analysis-020413-2

See the potential problem here?

The next chart shows the STA Risk Ratio indicator which is a composite index of the rate of change in the S&P 500, bullish versus bearish sentiment, the volatility index, and a ratio of new highs to new lows.   Currently, that index is approaching levels normally only seen at very significant market tops.

STA-RiskRatio-020413

I could show you chart after chart after chart. They all say the same thing – the market is extremely overbought and is currently pushing the limits of the current upside advance.

What I Am NOT Saying

The bulk of the mainstream media’s, and analyst’s, blathering is more akin to a parade of idiots rather than something you should actually spend your time paying attention to. Pay attention to the data.

While I have spilled an exorbitant amount of ink this week on all the reasons why the market is getting extremely overbought and into very dangerous territory – I am not saying that you should sell everything and hide in cash.

This may sound very counter-intuitive but the markets are being driven by the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Therefore, due to this artificial influence, the market can move higher, for longer, than you can possibly fathom. It will end, eventually, and it will end badly.

However, in the meantime, this is how to approach the current market.

1) Do not add to equity exposure at this time no matter how emotionally conflicted you become. Emotions lead to bad investment decisions - always.

2) Sell some, not all, of positions that are speculative in nature and have a lot of volatility. When the correction comes these will be hit the hardest.

3) Increasing stock markets suppress bond prices. Therefore, rotate some money into bonds which will benefit from a stock market correction – “Buy where the money ain’t goin’.”

4) Hoard cash – you can’t be a buyer when things get “cheap” when you don’t have any cash to buy with.

5) Rotate from very aggressive equity exposure to more defensive positions that have an income stream. (ie utilities, staples, and healthcare) However, these positions WILL lose money when the market corrects – just not as much.

6) Beware of high-dividend plays particularly REITS and MLP’s. The majority of these positions are GROSSLY overbought and overvalued and a correction of magnitude will lead to larger losses than you can currently comprehend.

7) Fundamental valuations HAVE NO bearing on a stock market correction. No matter how fundamentally strong you think your investments are they will generally correct as much, or more, than the market. Fundamental value is only effective for eliminating bankruptcy risk. In a market environment driven primarily by programmed trading it is only PRICE ANALYSIS that matters.

8) Did I mention hoarding cash?

9) Pay attention to the trend. The trend is currently positive and we want to mindful of that. It will require a VERY substantial price correction at this point before a SELL signal is issued. This is why profit taking, and keeping new savings in cash, is the best way to stay invested but reduce overall portfolio risk.

10) Just because you take profits, or sell a position today, DOES NOT mean that you can’t buy it back after it corrects.   That is just a good portfolio management practice. There IS NO successful investor – ever in history – that only “bought and held.”

There will be corrections which are buying opportunities and there will be corrections that aren't.  Unfortunately, you will never know which is which until it is too late.  This is why employing rudimentary rebalancing processes, or even basic risk management tools, to your investment portfolio will work to protect your investment principal overtime.  Are you going to get out at the tops and in at the bottoms? No.  Are you going to be the next great market timer?  No.  Will you keep from setting yourself back years from reaching your retirement goals?  Definitely.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Dems' a lot of charts, bitchez.   BTFD!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 03:48 | Link to Comment bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

I'm just not smart enough.

I should go back to school.

http://angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/thursday_7.html

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

There IS NO successful investor – ever in history – that only “bought and held.”

perhaps this time is different... if what you hold has some weight

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

yeah nobody successful bought a bunch of MSFT or ORCL back in the day and held it.  Or even AAPL.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:04 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

they call them stock broke ers for a reason. Fahrenheit 451

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:20 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

A few years away?? Really?? This is what happens when you stick a man in a cubicle with endless access to TOTALLY MEANINGLESS, WORTHLESS, SHIT-ASSED CHARTS.....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

I think he forgot the secular coming of the complete and utter crash of the USD.  I feel sorry for anyone who is holding a worthless piece of paper.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:20 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

The Fed model stopped working.  By the same token, it might be dangerous to get out of stocks because now the market is getting overbought. Markets can remain overbought for a long time (as in happened in the nineties) and sitting in cash can be a costly proposition.

Here is where "timing" the market or knowing when to run for the exits is important for the long-term survival of the investor.

Currently, the stock market is under a primary bullish trend as explained here:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-18-...

Until proven otherwise, the bullish trend is deemed to persist.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:31 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

haha...i can agree on one thing...sitting in cash can be a costly proposition

But i will ask...Does it cost more to be a Dow theorist or an Ancient astronaut theorist at university of Pheonix?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 22:48 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you need to show me a bear market...IN ANYTHING...before you start talking about "bull market is a few years off." Kapiche? I'll give you a hint: "start with the US dollar and tell me why you think that thing is guaranteed to keep tanking!"

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:47 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

just the things that matter, its a bear of a jobs and wage market. Its a bear going grocery shopping. A bitch (can we have a bitch market?) filling up the family car, a bear tax market, (no, you are not keeping up with living inflation). I never could figure out the fixation on the stock market, I guess it makes up for the in inability to be able to produce marketable goods. No one will be getting paid anyway. Steps up, express elevator down.

full disclosure, I am loooooong me, that's it.

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

This market will continue to test new highs and possibly reach new highs with minor corrections here and there for the next 16 to 22 months. 

 

 Rising rates of interest will be the only catalyst for the next crises. This reinflated bubble attempt has created the illusion of recovery, but we all know that this latest bubble is more like a 'woopie cushion' and it will not "release" its simulated final fart until the bond market parks its fat ass on it.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 00:44 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

IMHO, the next secular bull market will see the S&P 500 rise 50%...to 900 (aka 10 oz of silver).

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 05:17 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Iagree with the article. But they always say, well, we're not telling you to rush out and sell all your stocks; of course, this is exactly what a rational investor does when the odds are 75-25 against him. Of course, you should sell your common stocks. I'm already short the average in the futures market. Bull markets don't start from 7 year highs; they start from lows; what starts from seven year highs are crashes.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 08:31 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

But, the BULLSHIT market is here today!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!