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Spot The Government-Subsidized, Channel-Stuffed "Recovery"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Compared to previous V-shaped recoveries, this one is not looking too rosy. From consumption to GDP, and from retail sales to consumer sentiment, the following charts show how we are doing in context. So, the next time someone on TV tells you how great we are doing, perhaps a glance at these charts will flush some of the recency bias away. There is one bright shining 'better than any other recovery' segment though... one that is dominated by record levels of stuffed channels - can you guess?

 

 

Charts: Barclays

 

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Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:43 | 3221536 HoaX
HoaX's picture

I sure need me a new car.

McDrive babeh.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:50 | 3221566 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Talk about stuffing! There was a hearing in the House on the FHA with Democrats arguing to keep it the same always. But this person has a good writeup of how government helped cause the problem in the first place and just wants to keep it foot stomped down.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/mortgage-purchase-app...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:52 | 3221572 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Well, how else you think they kept GM in bussiness?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:09 | 3221622 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Not that I disagree with the article, but one really needs to know what was done 'to adjust for inflation' to evaluate the information.

Frankly, I am a bit dubious that things are as good as is represented, although I really don't get out much.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:24 | 3221648 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Ever wondered how every 17yo is driving a Lexus these days?

It´s a well known bubble for some time now. The new sub-prime besides student loans and mortgages once again, cause we all know that even a donkey..

Things don´t look that good to me if I see these charts.

I do have another song to cheer us all up a bit though:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ts2U1mkfz4

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:27 | 3221790 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Rick Astley -- I have not heard one of his tracks in years.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:34 | 3221810 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

One of my favourites. Girls...the club scene...by God, the Eighties shall live forever...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeyEGebJ1l4&sns=em

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:59 | 3221852 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Twas actually the Beatles: Baby you can drive my car.

But I thumbed you guys up anyway for knowing your classics (and man, need to make a gif of the girl in that clip. That or Rick pulling his shades up n down)

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:02 | 3221868 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

HoaX -- your avatar...Rick Astley, no ?

Classic Beatles -- but I repeat myself. And Fredo, Astley's tracks do bring back memories of nightlife past. Do you still have your Wayfarers ?

+1, gentlemen.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:17 | 3221904 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Yeah it´s Rick Astley, took me a while to make him loop properly.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:41 | 3221953 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Nice work, HoaX.

Classics indeed - I shall have to post a few more, from time to time. Some youngsters may have no idea who Prince, Billy Ocean, Sylvester, or Cameo were...Cheers --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRsmpQRbeuM&sns=em

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 00:42 | 3222233 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Cameo---- the only time in 400 years that a cod piece did not seem strange at all  /s

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 03:22 | 3222384 A Nanny Moose
Fri, 02/08/2013 - 04:52 | 3225323 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

My. That blonde in the bikini is just beautiful. Wonder what she looks like today?

Oh, not to digress, but there was something in the news eight or ten months ago about the woman who played the teacher in van halen's video. She's now in her sixties, but has aged incredibly well:

http://guyspeed.com/van-halen-video-hot-for-teacher/

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:28 | 3221664 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Weeds!

Weeds growing up around cars.

Farmers fields and empty lots used for storing unsold inventory.

Talk about cash for clunkers! Some of these will be years old before they find buyers.

Or most probably crushed and reused as scrap to build newer ones!

"Busboy required on  lot #243!"

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:34 | 3221807 W74
W74's picture

Soooooo many foreclosures worth LESS than the land they're sitting on.  Why? Because removing a whole house costs money.  The banks are going to regret holding onto these deteriorating monstrosities.  A home without a homeowner has no raison d'etre and quickly decays.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:19 | 3221912 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

Everybody is trying to re-inflate the bubble.

The bads news.

Humpty Dumpty had a big fall.

And his brains are all over the pavement.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/yesterday-dragon-lady-served-steak-for.html

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 05:52 | 3222434 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Corzine's parts were all over the pavement too, but they sewed him back together like Frankenstein, and today he is better than ever.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:43 | 3221538 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

BRING IT ON!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:43 | 3221541 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Government motors for the election win!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 08:02 | 3222482 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Is it too late for me to get an Obama phone? OK, I'll just take some free minutes.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:44 | 3221545 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I wonder what the personal consumption ceiling is before spending reaches stall speed and they are forced to release the inflation on the economy through wages speeding everything up.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:49 | 3221563 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

can I use my EBT card for my $700/month 2013 Escalade payments?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:45 | 3221693 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Depends- what color is your EBT card gold, or platinum? Platinum members are allowed an escalade plus an iphone upgrade every 6 months

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:24 | 3221781 W74
W74's picture

Payments for something they'll never own.  We're talking lease payments, which after the required upfront deposit (non-refundable) get turned back in at the end of the lease.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:58 | 3221590 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Everyday I just invest a little bit more in myself.  When things finally get "Fucked up enough" all any of us may have is ourselves ...

Take your life back, turn off the TV.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:06 | 3221614 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

And turn off the computer as well?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:35 | 3221675 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm giving up teh interwebs for Lent.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:48 | 3221702 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Me too.  I turned my computer off last Saturday and put it back in the box.  And I haven't turned it on since.  Honest.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:13 | 3221628 orez65
orez65's picture

I've stop explaining that the US Dollar is a "NOTE" not money.

Shit, it says it on every US Dollar denomination.

They look at me like I'm crazy!

Fuck them all, like you my new strategy is to "... invest a little bit more in myself"

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:01 | 3221726 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Thats the stuff +1

The best things in life are free

Read great literature, study history, and best of all see the entire library of all the great films ever made (all free on the piratebay- enjoy while it lasts!)

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=greatmovie...

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=REVIEWS08

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:07 | 3221617 Bárðarbunga
Bárðarbunga's picture

Buy silver, ammo and beer.

Stay thirsty my friends.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:08 | 3221621 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Are they making engine blocks out of tungsten these days ? Aluminum can barely pick it's head up off the 09 collapse lows despite all the great car truck sales going on out there.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:11 | 3221624 Cursive
Cursive's picture

2001 and 2008 are pretty much non-recoveries.  I wonder why that is?  Couldn't be the cumulative mountains of debt, huh?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:13 | 3221627 balz
balz's picture

Peak Oil and falling EROI.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:22 | 3221651 Mark123
Mark123's picture

USA basically crewed up in the 60's, both economically and socially.  everything since then is just a game involving expansion of credit and corruption.

 

In the 90's it was the stock bubble led by tech, then it was the real estate bubble (to cover the damage done by the tech bubble), and now it is the government debt bubble to fix the real estate bubble.

 

I guess my take is that this is the last hurrah and will end in tears.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:18 | 3221637 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Couldn´t help myself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvarxGzIU3M

Get out of my dreams!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:20 | 3221772 W74
W74's picture

Not to bust your balls, but if you're going to provide a link to another site, especially to a video then at least jot down a synopsis.  I like to know what I'm about to look at.  No discription = I'm probably not going to click.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:34 | 3221796 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Know your classics, the description is in my text (hint, I only link songs generally, hence my avatar).

Btw, youtube is generally safe, just so you know I´m not spamming my own blog or shite.

Cheers anyway.

 

 

Anyway, here´s some non-song youtube link for ya, maybe it will lighten you up a bit? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EffPnse4WQs

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:21 | 3221644 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

In five years, we are going to remember this as the good old days.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 03:27 | 3222387 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

when we drove our Trabants in the snow, uphill....both ways.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:29 | 3221665 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

The GM bailout is paying dividends to the corrupt gov at the expense of the good ol' taxpayers.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:33 | 3221673 adr
adr's picture

Imagine if gasoline, which doubled since 2009, wasn't counted in retail sales. If the charts are inflation adjusted, what numbers did they use? Real inflation or the understated is an understatement government sponsored inflation number?

Considering most retail sales are self reported, you need to take that with a grain of salt as well.

Car sales are aslo the sales reported to dealerships, not sold to consumers. Judging by the overflow on most lots, a whole lot of the inventory produced in 2012 is still sitting there.

My local VW dealer still has 35 2012 Beetles, that would be last year's model. They even offered 72 months 0% on them, ended up selling four. I guess not everyone can be GM and sell a car to anyone with a pulse, preferably without any cash in the bank.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 19:42 | 3221688 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I'll buy one of those cars when they discount them 75% to get them off the lot.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 20:33 | 3221805 seek
seek's picture

As I just posted in a prior thread, the only requirement to buy is the ability to make one payment. After it gets repo'd, you can go back and do it again.

I think you can beat 75% with that.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 21:08 | 3221882 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Hang on folks.  Deflation is right around the corner.  And with this comes disappearing jobs and vanishing pensions.

 

 

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