Tipping Points And What The Teeter Taught Here

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

The Teeter Taught Her
Down over a point in the long bond. Up almost a point in the long bond. Equities down more than 100 points. Equities up almost 100 points. All of this in the span of two days. Nothing was particularly new; no event popped up on the radar screen, no black swan swopped in from the horizon to startle the markets and anyone observing the markets may well ask, reasonably ask, just what the heck is going on. First, in my mind, we are getting a pretty good signal that the markets are running out of steam and that the collective vision of the way forward is murky. We are in a fragile state; near a tipping point. Now almost forty years of watching the world has taught me that when we are in this position that we are much more likely to go down than up because up is a tougher road to hoe. Up often rests upon promises while down is more centered on fundamentals and, economically, the fundamentals are worsening.
“Gods are fragile things; they may be killed by a whiff of science or a dose of common sense.”
                       -Chapman Cohen
In the United States we are in the “bump and grind” mode where we are eeking forward but just eeking. While it is fragile enough here in Europe the condition is much poorer. This is not signified by the currency but then the manipulation that goes on of the Euro is a game that continues without restraint. There is no use arguing about it or pointing to the actions not just of the ECB but the various central banks in Europe so believer or non-believer; this game goes on regardless. We have had a lull in Europe comprised of the Draghi Promise, the European attitude where money is thrown at each thing, everything, all things as the end-all, cure-all and holy salve to keep Europe intact and of the loosening of each and every deficit target so that they have lost any meaning or force. While the U.S. bumbles the actual economies in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Cyprus and even Ireland continue to weaken. In these countries unemployment is rising again, the financial conditions are deteriorating and the fall in interest rates rested upon not just Draghi’s gambit but also upon the flood of newly printed money by the central banks which, like orphans, had to be placed.
Please remember, however, that there are two components to additional debt and the markets have only focused on one side of the equation which is the interest rate variable. The other side of this coin is the total amount of debt which has been added to significantly by the weaker nations in Europe during our latest lull so that yield multiplied by amount reveals what no one likes to discuss and that is that the debt burden now in the troubled countries is larger, and in some specific cases such as Spain, far larger than it was last year. It is likely then that the markets will soon brush up against their old enemy, reality, once again and react in-line with economic conditions and not to promises of nirvana to come.
“Well," said Pooh, "what I like best," and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do, there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was better than when you were, but he didn't know what it was called.”
                 -A.A. Milne
Never discount the wisdom of The Bear. Many wander about on Wall Street trying to make things very complex and very grown-up in a misguided attempt to show just how big their brain is compared to yours. I always smile when I observe this, which is daily, as all they are doing is digging a hole for their ass or some other phrase relatively close to this one. The best and the brightest can make the complex easily understandable but somehow many people in our business have missed this point in their upbringing. Their mothers should have read “Winnie the Pooh” more often to them and they are intellectually poorer from the lack of this experience.
Now the Italian elections are but weeks away and Berlusconi is gaining in the pasta patch and his group will control a significant part of the Italian Parliament if not something more important. The Germans are swooning and close to cardiac arrest at this prospect. Any day we could see Merkel swathed in black in Sardinia promising Spaghetti for all and promising that the Germans will change their eating habits if Monti is retained in power. It could be a new German book, “Monti Christo” (Monti Christ) or Stuttgart promising olive oil’s use in each and every new Mercedes; only Faust knows. Gag reflexes are reported to be up 100% in Berlin and there are rumors that the Germans are trying to talk the Pope into proclaiming Monti a “living saint.”
In Spain we have a Prime Minister denying graft and corruption charges like some American kid denying he stole a cookie. Bravado and tears and running back to Ms. Merkel for comforting will not stop the truth from eventually coming out I fear. This is not the sixteenth century and fingerprints can be identified, money can be counted, books can be audited and windmills can be identified for what they are. I predict plenty of “Rain in Spain” where teary eyes pour out rain that ends reign and plenty of Don Quixote’s vying for power as Rajoy asks for absolution.
Europe is becoming fractionalized once again. That much can be said with some certainty and so I say to the German Prime Minister, “Remember, five out of every four people have trouble with politics!”

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Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:11 | 3219937 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Quick Bubble Bernanke and the Fed print more!!! Just like Japan did.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:45 | 3220081 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Quick, send PDF and Boris is help too!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 12:14 | 3220165 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"This is not the sixteenth century and fingerprints can be identified, money can be counted, books can be audited and windmills can be identified for what they are."

How soon we forget the lessons that Corzine taught us. Sometimes books are just too complex to audit and money can just vaporize. Poof!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:12 | 3219945 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Manic markets make for monster migraines.

<An old trading rule I learned when I was a young idiot which I continue to use as an old idiot.>

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:13 | 3219950 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

To help the Bankers, I will be taking on more DEBT that I cant repay

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:16 | 3219961 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Buy the debt cheap and buy loads of the right commodities!! When the US dollar collaspes, and it will, you'll be sitting pretty.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:43 | 3220073 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Buy beans, bullets, and bandages, bitchez!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:47 | 3220085 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Precious Metals - Gold, Silver, Bullets

and if Federal Reserve Bullion Vault, lots and lots of Titanium!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:18 | 3219967 rehypothecator
Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:15 | 3219954 Nid
Nid's picture

It's ROW to hoe....get your metaphors straight.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:19 | 3219971 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

Seriously...who the hell hoes a road?!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:26 | 3220006 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

well, uuh, I've rode a  few hoes

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 12:06 | 3220141 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Yep. And it's "eke", not "eek"... as in "to eke out a living", not "eek a mouse". Though it IS all very frightening...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:17 | 3219962 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The key is still oil and the fossil fuel space in general.'if that thing starts to buckle then I think a healthy correction is in order.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:18 | 3219964 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

And the Sheeple contine on ...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:18 | 3219968 natronic
natronic's picture

Fundamentals Schmundamentals.............Debts don't matter.........inflation has been beaten..........the market is steaming towards all time high's.....................BUY BUY BUY!!!!! 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:23 | 3219984 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Don't have time to worry about jobs....we're printing our way to new highs in the market.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:24 | 3219996 Gadocat99
Gadocat99's picture

“Gods are fragile things; they may be killed by a whiff of science or a dose of common sense.”
                       -Chapman Cohen


The deeper science delves, the more God is revealed.


Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:48 | 3220088 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Well said, brethren disciple. 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:28 | 3220016 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Democrats vs. Republicans

Dollar vs. Euro

Smoke vs. mirrors


Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:34 | 3220036 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Add to this:  Gold is up; silver is down.  Silver is up: gold is down.

However, tragic boating accidents are consistently up.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 11:45 | 3220076 poor fella
poor fella's picture

It's tough, but possible to climb a cliff. 

Try climbing back down. That's what the Fed thinks it can do with a soft landing of its balance sheets and the 'markets'.

Those lucky enough with parachutes can jump off. The rest of us are being forced on this one way trip up up and away on Bernanke's reckless path. 

We are in a window, where, through ingenuity and hard work, one can affect their future for the better by not buying into the b.s. we are FED each and every day. ZH helps us keep our eyes open, now it's up to each and everyone to plan wisely

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 12:05 | 3220136 Joe_in_Indiana
Joe_in_Indiana's picture

Mark J. Grant comes up with some provocative and thoughtful quotes.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 12:23 | 3220211 sojourner_man
sojourner_man's picture

This entire economic dilemma is much less about 'Swans' than it is about 'Structures'.  Black or White, the bird exists in a natural context.  It flies because it is.  What man engineers exists first and foremost in a 'virtual' context -- the mind.  There is no necessary connection, organic or otherwise, between this 'mind' and the 'natural world'.  When this 'mind of man' engineers structures to 'bridge' economic verities, the best we can hope for is the winds remain light... the oscillations we are witnessing now are simply symptoms of the system's natural frequency being revealed by 'unforeseen gale force winds'.  Take a close look:



Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:03 | 3220353 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Sojournerman, bold is not enough for such an important, stand-out post such as yours.  Use CAPS also.  And maybe italics.  Yeah, italics.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:22 | 3220421 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

Ireland Petition Not to pay, Vote Today


Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:30 | 3220449 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

When "too much debt" crosses the event horizon of the black hole known as "too much inflation"....pfft, the debt disappears perhaps into another universe....the debt is covered at a penny on the dollar....the lender is overjoyed since on his watch there was no actual write-off of it and the borrower hardly notices the small outlay and can continue buying iPads at will.

If you are an elected official and a professional politician, this is the only acceptable method of "too much debt" extingishment.

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