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The Two Scariest Words In Europe: "Silvio Berlusconi"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The coincidental resurrection of Bunga Bunga boy Berlusconi, amid financial and political fraud allegations (and facts), appears to have struck fear into the heart of European investors. The Draghi 'promise' seems to be getting ready to be tested as 'populist' Berlusconi closes the gap on his adversaries in Italy's election - and with it brings the threat of an end to austerity and any sense of stability in the new normal fiscal and political calmness that has 'apparently' existed for a few months. As the chart below indicates, via Bloomberg, as interest has risen in Berlusconi, so stocks (and Italian credit markets) have plunged at their fastest pace in five months. Recent polls by Sky Italia show the gap narrowing every week as the Monti Paschi debacle drags more and more of Europe's elite into its quagmire. The critical aspect of this renewed 'fear' is the thesis supporting much of the world's risk-assets is predicated on a few fulcrum securities in Europe indicating a cessation of tail risk - with Italian bond yields at six-week highs, concerns are starting to show.

Italian stocks collapsing as Berlusconi's popularity rises...

 

and Berlusconi's poll results show his popularity is rising consistently...

As Bloomberg notes:

Prime Minister Mario Monti replaced Berlusconi in November 2011, leading a government of non-party political figures in an attempt to convince investors that the country could manage its debt. Berlusconi has pinned his comeback attempt on a pledge to reverse Monti’s budget rigor and on Feb. 3 the former premier promised to abolish a property tax and give cash back to voters.

and from now until the elections, opinion polls go dark.

With Italy (and Spain) as seemingly fulcrum risk securities - will we see a repeat of September's resync?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:10 | 3220374 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Bunga Bunga

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:17 | 3220404 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Bunga, indeed.   I wonder if Italy has looked into the battered wife syndrome?  Even better, how about the average American who keeps voting the same old cronies into office?   The old saw "better the devil you know" just has to be tossed out.   The devils need to be exorcised!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:22 | 3220422 redpill
redpill's picture

Toooonight we're gonna bunga like it's nineteen ninety-nine!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 15:01 | 3220800 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

as interest has risen in Berlusconi, so stocks (and Italian credit markets) have plunged at their fastest pace in five months.

 

Maybe it should read like this:

 

as stocks (and Italian credit markets) have plunged at their fastest pace in five months, so interest has risen in Berlusconi.

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:22 | 3220423 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Scariest words to Central Bankers:

Silver and Gold bullion.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 14:31 | 3220677 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

 "Twenty-one of 22 incumbent senators were re-elected, and 353 of 373 incumbent members of the House were re-elected. The American people have re-elected 94 percent of the incumbents who were running for re-election to an institution that has an approval rating of about 9 percent. This indicates, as an electorate, we are a nation of idiots. We're now stuck with the useless, dysfunctional government that we deserve"

     - Raymond K Hessel

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 17:18 | 3221301 RockyRacoon
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Stupid or crazy, is there a difference? Published: Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 8:17 p.m. Last Modified: Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 8:17 p.m.

Insanity is described as performing the same act continuously but expecting a different result.

Let's look at what we have learned from this election: Twenty-one of 22 incumbent senators were re-elected, and 353 of 373 incumbent members of the House were re-elected. The American people have re-elected 94 percent of the incumbents who were running for re-election to an institution that has an approval rating of about 9 percent. This indicates, as an electorate, we are either a nation of idiots or we are collectively insane..

Either way we're now stuck with the useless, dysfunctional government that we deserve.
John Battaglia
Southport

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:35 | 3220466 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

"Silver Burlesque Owe Need".  Sounds intriguing!!

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 15:32 | 3220375 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Squadra rosso!

Squadra blu!

I ain't buying it.

How 'bout you?

 

"Drown me! Roast me! Hang me! Do whatever you please," said Euro Rabbit. "Only please, Italian Fox, please don't elect Bunga Bunga."

How does one say, "false choice," in Italian? 

I know that divide et impera is the latin phrase for a closely related concept.

 

 

"I don't care who does the electing, so long as I get to do the nominating."

 

-Boss Tweed

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:14 | 3220387 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

"...drags more and more of Europe's elite into its quagmire."

Luv it.  Bring it on FiSHeS.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:51 | 3220525 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The presence of Berlusconi in Italian politics is very positive, contrary to what many people think. While perceived danger that the return to be Prime Minister, the population will be more willing to absorb the economic adjustments. Silvio B, continue to be a major player in Italy and Europe knows it. So need to resolve more quickly, all economic measures that this country should take.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:14 | 3220390 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Berlusconi, Mussolini?

What the odds of one ending up like the other?

Another certifide criminal after more criminal money and kickbacks?

WHOCOULDAKNOWN???

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:34 | 3220462 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Berlesconi's odds of winning are poor.  This is the equivalent of the "Euro Leaders guarantor" in Greece vs the Tsipiras radical that says he'll eject from the Euro.

The people won't go with the bomb thrower.  The EU doesn't want him.  So Italy won't get him.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:16 | 3220400 Peter K
Peter K's picture

If doling out free goodies to the masses worked for the Bamster, why not for the Silvio?

Besides, depriving Silvio of his electoral victory is RACIST. :)

Panem et Circus, bitchezzzzz. :)

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:27 | 3221488 Rari Nantes In ...
Rari Nantes In Gurgite Vasto's picture

rather panem et circensem....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:18 | 3220406 JR
JR's picture

"Wherever government is in charge, its advertising message is always the same: consume less, eat less, drive less, let there be austerity." -- Dr. Hans F.Sennholz, economist, author of Age of Inflation

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:20 | 3220410 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"Two Scariest Words in the UN"  - Colin Powell  (or is that scarriest?)

today is the ten year anniversay of his WMD pitch

we all played catcher

foul balls hurt like a mother

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:20 | 3220412 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Berlusconi may be going rogue, since it appears "someone(s)" leaked damning info & photos of him to displace him as head puppet.

Of course, if so, cue fiery Ferrari or Learjet 85 "accident" and....5...4...3.....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:23 | 3220427 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

A Fem-Bot Bunga Bunga Bomb?

 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:20 | 3220417 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

ever scarier than mario draghi saying, '' no more printing''?

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:21 | 3220419 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Looks like the Silvio is about to hit the fan.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:33 | 3220459 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Doesn't matter who is in charge as no one is in control.

The EU is a fucking mess so they might as well BUNGA BUNGA.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:35 | 3220469 JR
JR's picture

If Berlusconi can break the banker-hold on Italy, so be it.

If Bloomberg isn’t promoting financial terrorism to keep the bankers in charge of the EU with this statement, then what is it doing by saying: “Prime Minister Mario Monti replaced Berlusconi in November 2011, leading a government of non-party political figures in an attempt to convince investors that the country could manage its debt. Berlusconi has pinned his comeback attempt on a pledge to reverse Monti’s budget rigor and on Feb. 3 the former premier promised to abolish a property tax and give cash back to voters”?

The people are well aware of who the characters are in this play. And that includes what they know about Berlusconi. His popularity increases because of what they know about Monti. And if I were an Italian I would be voting for Berlusconi’s party.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 16:23 | 3221108 DR
DR's picture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/27/us-italy-berlusconi-mussolini-...

"Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi triggered outrage from Italy's political left on Sunday with comments defending fascist wartime leader Benito Mussolini at a ceremony commemorating victims of the Nazi Holocaust."

 

Berlusconi scares the shit out of the Euro Jewish bankers. I think he is toast.....

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 13:49 | 3220521 4exNinja
4exNinja's picture

God Italians are a dumb people. Fool me once...fool me twice...fool me three times...BUT FOUR TIMES?? ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? How dumb can you possibly be? 

To be perfectly honest, if they elect him again they deserve what's coming to them...just like the US deserved it (well, at least the ones who voted for him) when they re-elected Bush. 

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 15:30 | 3220765 JR
JR's picture

Good grief, Monti the banker is even levying a new tax against church property.

As for the residential property tax, it was Berlusconi who abolished the wealth tax on an individual’s main abode. In typical IMF fashion, it was Monti aka Goldman Sachs international adviser who re-instated the tax on a residential home, accompanied by a 60% average increase in the official value of properties, budgeted to bring in an extra USD14.1 billion per year.

The international banker wears the black hat, rides into town, robs the people, bribes the sheriff, and rides away leaving the people with losses. It happened in Argentina; bankers departing after the thefts leaving the people with a monstrous debt. It’s happening now in Greece and in the United States of America. We cheated you, we took your money, and here’s what you’ve got to do…

Italy’s program, the same as The Greek banker-austerity-program is essentially an accelerated Increase Italian Poverty program.

The people, facing crisis and rising prices, are being bled dry, while the police  protect the thieves from their victims. The world no longer can afford to have these people running governments. 

Sometimes the World Socialist Web Site gets it right:  

_____________________________________________________________________

The human cost of Italian austerity By Paul Bond
29 January 2013

The run-up to next month’s Italian general election is dominated by discussion of the implementation of further austerity measures. The unelected government of Mario Monti, put in place under pressure from the financial markets in November 2011, systematically worked to dismantle all the post-war gains of the working class and ensure that working people bear the costs of the banking crisis.

Within weeks of its appointment, the Monti government presented a €30 billion cuts package, slashing welfare provision and raising the pension age from 58 to 66 by 2018 and the number of years a worker has to pay into the pension system to qualify from 35 to 42. Compensation for price inflation is being scrapped for most pensions. Value-added tax, which hits the low-paid hardest, was increased by 2 percent, and tax hikes drove a sharp rise in fuel costs.

Over the next year, a tax covering first properties was reintroduced, which has pushed families’ property costs to more than 30 percent of their total expenditure. Article 18 of the 1970 labour legislation, a gain of militant struggles in the 1960s, was amended to enable businesses to sack workers without just cause.

…Monti’s December budget will reduce payroll taxes paid by employers and cut health care budgets.

All parties in the election have agreed to impose further austerity measures.

Average family living costs have already increased by almost €2,500 per year. A social catastrophe faces millions, under conditions of a continuing economic contraction that leaves industrial output roughly 25 percent lower than five years ago…

Eurostat figures published a year ago indicated that average wages were already among the lowest in the European Union (EU). The report, based on 2009 data, showed an average annual wage of €23,406, barely half that of Luxembourg (€48,914) and the Netherlands (€44,412). In 2009, when the impact of the financial crisis was being felt, the average wage in Italy was below that of crisis-ridden Greece (€29,160) and Spain (€26,316), and was rising more slowly than in most other countries…

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/01/29/ital-j29.html

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 14:24 | 3220642 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Bunga will rise like Marion Berry and Buddy Cianci before him...God help the Italian people...

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 14:50 | 3220754 Sid James
Sid James's picture

Being in office is the best way for Italians to stay out of the clink. That's why they have so many politicians.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 15:42 | 3220961 Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

The two scariest words for the U.S. economy: Barack Bernanke

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:24 | 3221471 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

They are opposites.  

Because EUcrats legitimacy is based on the notion that they are above national passions, and know wtf they are doing.

While Berlusconi is clearly an Italian politician whose competency rests on the solid foundation and experience of removing bras.   

I trust Berlusconi, for the same reason I would place more trust in Clinton, because at least you can get some handle on sex and money.   But airy-fairy keynesian ctrl-p has no limit.

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 18:48 | 3221558 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Fuck it, if you wanna make some $, buy Italian bonds when bunga bunga hits top in the polls.

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