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Initial Claims Miss For Second Week In A Row As Nonfarm Productivity Tumbles Most Since 2008

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As is the case every Thursday, the BLS reported its weekly initial claims which unlike two weeks ago did not estimate the initial unemployment claims for America's most populous state when the number plunged, and has now missed expectations for two weeks in a row, printing at 366K, on expectations of a 360K number, while last week's 368K was as usual revised upward to 371K. As a result, the Mainspin Media already has its headline: Initial Claims decline by 5,000. Such is life under the US Department of Truth, even as unadjusted initial claims spiked by 16.7K to 386K in the week ended February 2. In other news, people on Extended Unemployment Comp plunged by 288K after soaring in the week prior, and making some wonder just what is going on with the EUC 2008 data series for it to get such massive weekly shifts each week.

But perhaps, more importantly, the BLS also reported Q4 unit labor costs and nonfarm productivity and as a result of the previously reported adjustments to worker data and negative GDP print, it was widely expected that productivity would drop. It did, but it did so far more than most expected, plunging by a whopping 2%, which "reflects increases of 0.1 percent in output and 2.2 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates." The offset: unit labor cost which soared by 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012, the combined effect of the 2.0 percent decrease in  productivity and a 2.4 percent increase in hourly compensation. Unit labor costs rose 1.9 percent over the last four quarters.

 


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Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

Obviously, moar QE is the answer.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hey.......DOW 14K.......not bad huh?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

When dealing with imaginary numbers in the excel sheet in the sky ... anything is possible.

Rubber hits the road?  Not with crimnals skimming and hiding their crimes in phony books.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:00 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

6.5% here we come!  NOT!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Jobless claims will eclipse the labor force number before that happens

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Golf,

Why work at all when the fed can just print all the money we need to run the government?  The fed should just send everyone a million bucks a year to "stimulate the economy".  No one has to show up for work, we can all just go spend money in stores where no one is working.  Oh, wait....

But seriously, if the fed can just print money and create wealth with ctrl + P why do we have to annoy ourselves with work?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

Nobody will when the value of the $ falls to 0.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Can't we compare/contrast the unemployment/welfare/disability numbers to the govt. CRAP BLS figures?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Classified Memo To CIA Nominee-Director

Subject:  Truth Tellers Termination Program (aka 'Paint An American Citizen Red, Then White, Then Blue' Program)

To:         Nominee-Director of Al-CIA-Duh, Johnny McBrennan

From:      President Barack "I AM Due Process, Bitch" Obama

              Hellfire Missile Equipped Domestic Drone Fleet Commandeer-In-Chief

Nominee-Director McBrennan,

Please keep foremost in mind the two critical pieces of wisdom that Jean-Claude Juncker & Mariano Rajoy have recently reminded the world's dis-intelligence units of when speaking, testifying or otherwise opening one's mouth, when you appear before CONgress today for your Kabuki Dance:

  • "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."
  • It is all untrue, except for some things.

Sincerely,

President Barack "Judge, Jury & EXECUTIONER" Obama

cc:  The Hon. Jon S. Corzine

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment trav777
trav777's picture

there's 50T of z1 credit they have to fund, so yeah

UE right now is dependent on who they classify as actually unemployed

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Ivory tower syndrome for the PhDs at the Federal Reserve.

The Bernanke and the Fed members keep looking at the unemployment numbers with people rolling off thinking it's getting better and their policy is working. 

Fantasyland for the Fed. USA has become Japan.

Debasing the dollar, causing the middle class and poor to suck it in.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Considering 90+% of all new income goes to the top 1% I'd say QE is working Exactly as planned.

The financial coup detat continues victorously!

Let them eat Ipads!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment unrulian
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BulLShit

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I think they gave the BLS dartboard an extra heavy duty spin this week.

Blah, blah, blah....

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Waiting for it to be renamed the Politburo of Labor Statistics.....  same BS, just not accessible in the gulag.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Time for the CBs to buy some more bonds.  suckers.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Ouch that's going to leave a mark...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

GET TO WORK MR. CHAIRMAN...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

As long as the sheeple keep drinking the Koolaid, everything is just hunkey dorey.  Is there a 12 step program for Koolaid withdrawal?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I cannot wait to see them actually write that the UE rate dropped to 10.1% from 9.9% and see if they get it by everyone.

Orwell was a prophet.

pods

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

For some, it will be a 12 gauge program. 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment johnnynaps
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Weren't 10,000 boomers supposed to be retiring daily by now?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
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Retirement is now in a McDonalds until they automate to dodge the Health care act

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Good news or bad news, the algos have everything under control.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Bernanke saw a BUBBLE in productivity

AND HE ACTED!!!

THANK YOU BERNANKE FOR FLATLINING IT!!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Shitheaddad O'Brien didn't report this on Communist News Network.....Why isn't the state media covering these interesting numbers......FUCKING, HMMMM.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

The endless spin is wearing me out. Hope I don't become a mindless CNBC Zombie soon.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Look into the AAPL....you are getting weak and wanting to buy.....

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

It's all designed to wear you out.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In the end, watching the same TITS bore you out and you'll look for other tits...

so in the meanwhile... you'll have to ride out your cnbc wedding...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

"Unit labor costs rose 1.9 percent over the last four quarters"......this is weird especially when you have 7.8% unemployment and 15% undereemployed...with all that potential labor available I would think ( old school econ 101) that labor costs should be going down.......OR...the bit cap letters OR...is this Obamacare kicking in???????

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment insanelysane
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Me thinks the rise in labor costs were actually related to bonus type pay prior to the fiscal cliff.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.  I know no middle wage earner whose pay went up, but instead are working more with the same or less even.  Mgmt smiling, doing the same or less with more.

 

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

We need a Biderman moment.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

yah niggas up in Europe  needs to brent over and enjoy some of this Bernak wood he sportin.. how's it feel bitchezz ?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

How bad is David Einhorn getting his ass kicked with apple to be doing this huge dog and pony show right now?

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

BSberg is having an exclusive interview with him at 10.  Super exclusive since CNBS had him on before 9.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Hp on it way to having huge layoffs as well as another telecom company again this year.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Hp on it way to having huge layoffs as well as another telecom company again this year.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

The lying shills of the msm are sickening.  The lack of any journalistic search for objectivity is embarassing.  The press was once the pit bull at the ankles of the powerful...now they're the toy poodle in their pockets - fed treats and trotted out for propaganda purposes only.

Oh yeah, and coverups for the 'progressives' (Menendez, etc) and public damnation and vilification of their opponents.

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

MSM now = SM. STATE MEDIA.

 

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment madbraz
madbraz's picture

Good to hear finally some comments on the absurdity of the EUC 2008 figures.

 

It's been clear for a while that the weekly claims number has been adulterated for quite some time now.  Most likely they just pass on new claims directly to the continuing claims bucket, bypassing the new claims.  This would explain why extended benefits are such a statistical monstruosity.

 

Note how unadjusted new claims went up last week and the adjusted number went down.  That didn't happen last year, nor the years before.   They just don't care anymore about having it make any sense and imply that it is statistically valid, as long as the HFT get their trigger.

 

The MSM started the effort this morning to get away with no sequester - it was on NPR at 6AM and on CNBC at 8AM.  Not coincidentally, the CNBC headline was that Robert Rubin said the sequester is terrible.  Rubin created MSM manipulation 101 (perfected by Summers) and taught the Europeans how to do it via Turbo Timmy.  Recall that Rubin is in a hedge fund.  

 

Robert Rubin is terrible.  These guys (Summers) have Obama on a string.  I think this is not a coincidence - they created him and put him where he is now.  No wonder Obama dare not go against the bankers, even in his last term - something holds him back.  They have him by the balls - should he ever go against him, he's exposed.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:02 | Link to Comment mr1963
mr1963's picture

That's what "he" said, "Barry, I got you by the balls."

Hmmm, wonder what they have on the limp wristed leader of the free world...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

BO is going to need a new job in 4 years and the only industry still standing will be the banksters.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you BLS. Motherfucking Obama shit eating fucking assholes.

You crooked fucks can burn in fucking Hell. Fuckers.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

You forgot:

BOB SAGET!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

You haven't had one fucking post without a 'fuck' in it in a long fucking time.  Must be some kind of fucking record. Keep up the great fucking work! 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:14 | Link to Comment 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

The MSM should be right on this!!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Dogbert
Dogbert's picture

At this point what matter does it make?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
9-year-old gives birth, Mexican authorities seek 17-year-old father

 

 

http://search.yahoo.com/search?cs=bz&p=9-year-old%20gives%20birth&fr=fp-...

 

 

Coming to a city near you.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

HEADLINE

 

"US unemployment aid applications decline to 366"

Ap article in my local paper. Sickening. It really is the Dept. of Truth

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Mainspin Media

 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

ya does not matter. these fuckers will make sure our markets stay green regardless.

 

all the financials somehow are all green, even though they are supposed to be the leading indicator of how the economy is. it truly is amazing how fucked up our system is.

 

why cant all these fucking markets globally just crash and burn, us, europe, asia, etc. itd make me so happy to see these assholes lose all there money. they r a bunch of criminals.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I can't believe all these bullshit revisions, from the bls crooks! All the numbers from last week were revised even higher. How the hell does unit labor cost go from [-2.3%] QoQ to [4.5%]? (obamacare?)

  What about the bullshit German industrial production print? Revised to a [-.2%] previous,and posting a [.3%] consensus beating current print, even though their gdp is in the shitter!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

<Big> layoff at our <Small> company yesterday (electronics). Those who remain got a 5% pay cut (on top of the 10% we'd been carrying for the last 4 years or so). Seem that customers simply quit buying last quarter. Anecdotal good times.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

Yea I love how even fox has reported a drop by 5,000.  What confuses me is if last week was 371k and this week is 366k how can the 4 week avg have droppe 2,250 to 350,500??? Aren't both weeks higher than 350k? Shouldn't it be revised up? Nothing makes sense these days.....MOAR SILVER FOR ME!!!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment clagr
clagr's picture

Ever notice how weekly 'new' jobless claims is always about double new hires. Only the twisted can see that as "slowly improving".

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 11:52 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Apart from stuffing car lots with future rental cars and counting the number of unemployed, what other 'non-farm productivity' work are people doing?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E. Coyote sell off awaits...

SP500 daily chart choppy downtrend commencing.

Longs please be careful.

http://trader618.com

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 15:40 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

Isn't this straight out of Orwell's 1984?  Something about chocolate rations increased.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Tetres
Tetres's picture

NOTE.....JOBS data is likely a huge smoke and mirrors pro forma development...judge for yourself...as we have seen seasonally adjusted initial claims vastly under-reports claims by 711,734 past 7-weeks...due to bull shit seasonal adjustments....this lies and propaganda keep coming at a break neck speed so as to lull average Americans into believing the recovery is better than expected

Week ending In the week ending February 02, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 366,000, a decrease 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 350,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 352,750.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 386,176 in the week ending February 02,, an increase of 16,696 from the previous week. There were 401,365 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

·       

Difference of  20,176

Week ending In the week ending January 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, a increase of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 330,000. The 4-week moving average was 352,000, a increase of  250 from the previous week's revised average of 360,000.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 366,596 in the week ending January 26, an decrease of 70,429 from the previous week. There were 422,287 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

·       

Difference of 1,404

Week ending In the week ending January 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 330,000, a decrease of  5,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 335,000. The 4-week moving average was 351,750, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average of 360,000.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 406,766 in the week ending January 19, an decrease of 119,994 from the previous week. There were 416,880 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

·       

Difference of 76,766

Week ending In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,708 in the week ending January 12, an increase of 2,360 from the previous week. There were 525,422 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

·       

Difference of 220,708

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 371,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 359,000.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 552,043 in the week ending January 5, an increase of 61,944 from the previous week. There were 646,219 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

·       

Difference of 181,043

In the week ending December 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 359,750.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 495,588 in the week ending December 29, an increase of 40,459 from the previous week. There were 540,057 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

·       

Difference of 123,558

In the week ending December 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 356,750, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 368,000.

·       

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 440,887 in the week ending December 22, an increase of 39,458 from the previous week. There were 497,689 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

·       

Difference of 90,887

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