Scapegoating Nemo: Meet The "Culprit" For The Upcoming Q1 GDP Miss

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just as it was all tropical storm Sandy's fault for somehow impacting the national economy from California, to Florida, to Oregon and all the way to Vermont, but more importantly - giving economists a scapegoat on which to blame the acute weakness in economic data in the November timeframe, so tomorrow's "historic" blizzard will be the inevitable reason for which the economy will once again perform "below expectations." It will have nothing to do with the ongoing reign of authoritarian terror conducted by the residents of the Marriner Eccles building, which has made a baseline growth rate of 1% in the artificial economy an optimistic outcome. Because, as everyone knows, in a centrally-planned, priced to absolute perfection economy, no exogenous variables, such as snow storms in the middle of winter, can possibly be allowed or certainly factored for. Which is why expect to hear a whole lot more in the next 24 hours about Blizzard Nemo: after all propaganda patterning demands that everyone has a clear image of the perpetrator when the time comes to cast all blame on one single event and to distract from the real cause of now structural underlying economic weakness.

Sure enough, moments ago the National Weather Service just issued a blizzard warning from 6 am Friday until 1 pm Saturday.

355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION...SOME TREE LIMBS WILL BE DOWNED...CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Expect a cornucopia of sell-side reports as early as today warning that due to Nemo everything: from job data, to housing, to retail sales, to capital spending, to exports, and ultimately, GDP, will be impacted as a result of snow in winter.

Some more on Nemo from the Wunderground blog:

Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

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Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:45 | 3224261 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Whoever came up with the idea for naming winter storms needs a swift kick to the jimmies.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:52 | 3224282 centerline
centerline's picture

Maybe we need to embrace our shifting demographics a little better and start using some ethnic or ebonic names.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:57 | 3224301 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Shit cha.  I don't know what Tyler's talking about, we need to celebrate this kinda thing.  You couldn't do any better without a strategically placed drone strike.  Although short term costly, things like this lay new foundations for future growth.  We beg for this shit.  It fits our model.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:04 | 3224320 economics9698
economics9698's picture

You put this shit up there and it really fucking makes me dread my job transfer to Connecticut.   

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:05 | 3224325 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Hurricane ... Taqweesha?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:24 | 3224352 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

How about an Indian name that is 30 characters long (Nikihileshwaramadaprema) or an African name that is just clicks?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:38 | 3224521 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

"*** BULLETIN *** For immediate release...Winter Storm Kama Sutra is expected to leave the Northeast in suspended congress."

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:40 | 3224524 trav777
trav777's picture

i have some business with an insurer up there and they already put out the "shit gonna get serious so talk to ur manager about staying home" email out

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:41 | 3224529 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

According to the wind chart, Rhode Island is gonna blow out to sea!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 20:49 | 3224696 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

"According to the wind chart, Rhode Island is gonna blow"

Rhode Island doesn't blow, it sucks...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:20 | 3224358 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

LaQueefa

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:19 | 3224452 CPL
CPL's picture

 

SWAT Team Deployed to Big Bear

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/live-video/

Another stream

http://bearocracy.xtreemhost.com/

 

Something going on in LA right now.

Oh it's the beginning of Rambo:First Blood for real.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:40 | 3224525 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I take it they've found their rogue cop.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:53 | 3224561 CPL
CPL's picture

Ex-seal cop that's taken off fully loaded into the woods after sending a manifesto.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 20:00 | 3224579 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sounds like must see TV. The only thing missing is a white Bronco.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 20:38 | 3224626 CPL
CPL's picture

HE's wanted in questioning to Sandy Hook is the news.  All cops are on the beat hunting this guy.  The twitter storm of looting call outs is wicked.  LA is going to burn tonight I think.

 

Radio silence.  Media blackout.

 

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?ctid=218

Correction.  Swat search radios.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 21:09 | 3224742 mt paul
mt paul's picture

ice drone

Zebra...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:56 | 3224295 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

it's only a matter of time before they sell the naming rights.  i just hope they only allow Banks to name them. more appropriate. 

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:01 | 3224311 knukles
knukles's picture

now thats some twisted shit even by my standards

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:44 | 3224537 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I noticed a Bloomberg propaganda trial balloon floating about today in the reporting of less than.

Instead of less than expected, it was less than projected...something to keep an eye on seeing as how the expectation makers are never confronted about their past blown past expectations, perhaps the new projectionists will be held to a higher standard...lol.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 03:35 | 3225287 Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

I got a kick out of "potentially historic!"

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:58 | 3224300 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

"Headwinds".

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:58 | 3224304 CPL
CPL's picture

In Canada we've been doing it for years.

Snow storm Jan 1st 2013

Snow storm Jan 2nd 2013

Snow storm Jan 3rd 2013

Snow storm Jan 4th 2013

Snow storm Jan 5th 2013

Snow storm Jan 6th 2013

SUnny, awesome day, walked around and did stuff.

Snow storm Jan 8th 2013

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:06 | 3224328 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

OK, that was good.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:59 | 3224307 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It is chrystal clear the FED is THE MOST DANGEROUS TERRORIST ON THE PLANET.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:19 | 3224354 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

WTF- name for a snow storm? Fucking ignorant nanny state hall montiors. It's snowing, it's February get over it

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:43 | 3224531 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

So... perhaps we should call it Februblizzardary?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:37 | 3224520 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

I've got your Nemo.

I've got it hanging between my legs.

Assholes.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2013/02/thursday_7.html

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 20:53 | 3224711 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Took the words right out of my mouth Joe!  The first storm I thought WTF?  Publicity bullshit.  But that's the US of A these days!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 08:00 | 3225388 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

They're named at HAARP

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:46 | 3224266 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I blame sea monkeys. Creepy little bastards.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:55 | 3224287 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Sea monkeys in the hire of Al Qaeda and Iran... creepy little Islamo-fascist bastards!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:02 | 3224315 knukles
knukles's picture

Wait... somebody said that the reason Al Gore was putting on weight was he was being stuffed with sea monkeys.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:57 | 3224437 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

He's prepping for a Current TV Special Event, a Sumo match with Chris Christie.  Hillary Clinton will be the featured card girl.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 20:03 | 3224585 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'll only watch if they all spray tan first!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 21:37 | 3224793 knukles
knukles's picture

Live, from Cankles Staduim

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:47 | 3224267 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Global Warming BITCHEZ!!

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:48 | 3224272 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Cape Cod may be decimated.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:59 | 3224299 knukles
knukles's picture

Maybe the whole of the Fucking Hamptons will sink as in a Biblical prophetic Ark-ian Atlantean moment.

 

Oh and PS.
With the Hamptons at Risk, Watch the Gubamint declare a National Emergency well before the storm even hits.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:10 | 3224335 CPL
CPL's picture

Maybe we've gotten lucky and the idiots are bunkering 'at the cottage' and are sealed in an ice block till spring.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:20 | 3224356 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Is that where Corzine is imprisoned? oh....wait....

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:58 | 3224438 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

At least DC won't be affected, so they can remain hard at work figuring out new ways to fuck the rest of us

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:48 | 3224275 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Wow Mother Nature aint fucking around......She is going for the TKO on the Jersey Shore .......stay safe good people and hope every corrupt motherfucker drowns

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:49 | 3224276 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Market will easily hit an all-time high friday as the 4 traders who make it in to the NYSE will just keep buying and the Algo's will join them.  Light volume short squeeeeze.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:52 | 3224283 agNau
agNau's picture

I'm long snowshovels and icemelt........and waiting on FEMA.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:22 | 3224365 CPL
CPL's picture

Last time a storm hit their office they closed remember?

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 18:50 | 3224423 knukles
knukles's picture

Betcha same head regional office this time, too.
Couldn't get to work. 
Too much snow....

Send 'em to the post office...
Oh wait, they don't work Saturdays anymore.
Well, to be correct, they just don't work anyhow....

New Free Shit Employment Agency and Inner City Burn Baby Burn Damper Social Justice Mechanism

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:56 | 3224291 knukles
knukles's picture

Lemme get this straight.
The name Nemo loosely translates to "nobody"  ... As in really doesn't matter much.  How's that for some circles within circles, bitchez?
And Captain Nemo (nobody of significance... as in Great Fucking Excuse) also known as Prince Dakkar in Verne's original works... Or we simply could say the Prince of Darkness..
At one point had a massive life or death tussle with a Giant Squid.

Now, putting all that very sensitive and confidential material and nonpublic information together, whatcha think you come up with?

Another Fucking Snow Job.

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 19:48 | 3224546 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Kudos! It isn't just anyone who can turn alcohol into such a work of inspiration.

Beer-thirty approaches...

Thu, 02/07/2013 - 17:56 | 3224292 yogibear
yogibear's picture

You live on the east coast it's what you have to expect.

If you live next to the sea you have to expect a tsunami at any time.

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