Scapegoating Nemo: Meet The "Culprit" For The Upcoming Q1 GDP Miss

Tyler Durden's picture

Just as it was all tropical storm Sandy's fault for somehow impacting the national economy from California, to Florida, to Oregon and all the way to Vermont, but more importantly - giving economists a scapegoat on which to blame the acute weakness in economic data in the November timeframe, so tomorrow's "historic" blizzard will be the inevitable reason for which the economy will once again perform "below expectations." It will have nothing to do with the ongoing reign of authoritarian terror conducted by the residents of the Marriner Eccles building, which has made a baseline growth rate of 1% in the artificial economy an optimistic outcome. Because, as everyone knows, in a centrally-planned, priced to absolute perfection economy, no exogenous variables, such as snow storms in the middle of winter, can possibly be allowed or certainly factored for. Which is why expect to hear a whole lot more in the next 24 hours about Blizzard Nemo: after all propaganda patterning demands that everyone has a clear image of the perpetrator when the time comes to cast all blame on one single event and to distract from the real cause of now structural underlying economic weakness.

Sure enough, moments ago the National Weather Service just issued a blizzard warning from 6 am Friday until 1 pm Saturday.

355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.  IN ADDITION...SOME TREE LIMBS WILL BE DOWNED...CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Expect a cornucopia of sell-side reports as early as today warning that due to Nemo everything: from job data, to housing, to retail sales, to capital spending, to exports, and ultimately, GDP, will be impacted as a result of snow in winter.

Some more on Nemo from the Wunderground blog:

Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in 1936. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5"
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1"
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3"
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4"
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8"
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5"
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4"
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8"
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4"
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7"
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2"
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2"
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2"


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 - 4' is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.


Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.

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Vashta Nerada's picture

Any statistical trick is fair game as long as they don't publicly state negative GDP growth

knukles's picture

It's not weird if it works.

Manthong's picture

So...

Storm Nemo acts to thwart the efforts of the denizens in the Sub-Marriner Eccles building and deep-six GDP growth and sink the economy?  

Well, shiver me timbers.

PUD's picture

I live on the Cape and trust me...it will all be "seasonally adjusted" and just fine.

Oleander's picture

Ran into grocery store to get dads meds. I do not recall seeing lines like this for any recent storms. This will be great for Stop and Shop and salt companies. Not good for RI though, I noticed equal number of RI plates at Target. They are bleeding sales tax over the border everyday. 

booboo's picture

Warm up the sleigh Ben Claus and get them elves packing it with FRN's.  Oh, by the way, what does the Jewish Santa say when he comes down the chimney? "Wanna buy a present?"

yogibear's picture

Bernanke is naked with only his trench coat ready to violate any elderly saver.

km4's picture

BREAKING: Iceland outlook revised to stable from negative by Moody's

we know why ;)

Bastiat's picture

Krugman's ecstatic--broken windows galore.

knukles's picture

Probably the same economic stimulus if he had an aneurism.

blindman's picture

[KR403] Keiser Report: The Birth of a Scandal
Posted on February 7, 2013 by stacyherbert
.
http://maxkeiser.com/2013/02/07/kr403-keiser-report-the-birth-of-a-scandal/
.
.." a currency war is basically a firing squad lined up in a circle" m.k.
..around a barrel of fish containing the populations the generals
of the currency war represent. no one of importance gets hurt, just
the fish in the barrel.

NotApplicable's picture

Meh. Wake me up when Max starts acting like an adult, and responds properly to rebuttals concerning his character assassination attempts, rather than acting childish and only increasing the name calling.

As long as he assumes the persona of a talking-head buffoon, it only serves his alleged targets. Given his lack of maturity on this point, I can only come to the conclusion he is just another example of incoherent, controlled dissent.

Follow him at your own peril. My guess is that someday, he will take his followers directly into a brick wall, undermining every relevant argument he's ever made.

Just as Palin was used to undermine the Tea Party, so too is Max being used to undermine those who want true justice on Wall St.

blindman's picture

you lost me on "wake me up/.."
there may be a brick wall but it won't be a result of
his relevant arguments and you lost me once again
when you said "... those who want true justice on wall st."
my opinion, "those" are a figment of one's imagination.
no one on wall street wants anything close to true justice.
frankly, it might be the last "want" they have, more like
a fear than a want. imho

willwork4food's picture

+10.

@ Not applicable-so you don't like his childish immature rants, what the fuck are you doing here?

Name one aspect of Keiser that is mis-info. Dare ya.

whoopsing's picture

GLOBAL WARMING !! huh, what ?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Shark ... sh sh shark in the pond .... there's a sh shark

Agent P's picture

I don't know about a Q1 GDP miss, but I guaran-damn-tee this will be major bullish for diaper and baby formula sales starting in Q4.

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Wow - 29' waves on east side of Nantucket.  That is a big wave.  Friend of mine must be glad he sold his home in 'sconset last year....

knukles's picture

Betcha all dem (get it... dem?) big ass $30MM homes got Gubamint flood insurance that'll pay out full, forget the details of who, what, why, when, whatever...
Sorta like pre existing conditions with Yomma care

Squid Vicious's picture

they should send Lies-man in a dingy out to "The Benchmark" - 40 degrees lat. by 70 degrees long. for a live report tomorrow

NotApplicable's picture

There once was a wave from Nantucket...

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Into which, my gold, I did chuck it

And I said with a grin, as the Feds closed on in...

__________________________________________.

knukles's picture

its really just tungsten

go fuck it

ljag's picture

For all those that didn't lose their shit in a boating accident...........here is your shot. IT GOT SWEPT OUT TO SEA BY NEMO!!!!

NeedtoSecede's picture

There will be major storm surges in the heartland too. Can we get some of those disaster Benny Bux too?

I am trying to get my safe to higher ground but even empty of all the guns, ammo and phizz that washed away during the last storm, this damn thing is heavy.

tip e. canoe's picture

au contrare, i'd bet a silver dime that the Home Depots & Walmarts are doing crazy business in the NE right about now with people stocking up last minute.

welcome to the next chapter of the Global Coastal Event : Fearing Nemo

booboo's picture

FRENCH TOAST EMERGENCY ALERT!!!, eggs, milk, bread are the first thing to go, then the diapers. Once they are depleted the North East will fold like the New England Patriots.

 

forwardho's picture

You know the whole "adjusted figures" meme is a joke when the afternoon radio jockey cracks wise about this same topic before ZH posts it.

 

Hedgetard55's picture

Wonder if Barry Choom will declare it a disaster area and make the rounds up there with the governors like he did with Sandy BEFORE the election? Nah, Homey the Klown will bwe hitting the links somewhere.

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Nah, he's probably lighting up this weekend, like he was the evening of the Benghazi debacle

knukles's picture

Seriously... and of all the folks, Panetta rats his ass out

Yikes!

NemoDeNovo's picture

Why am I being BLAMED for the upcoming Q1 miss???  WTF did I do?

 

~ Nemo

Anglo Hondo's picture

Nemo is an Omen....   well, sorta..

More coffee needed here, nurse!

 

americanspirit's picture

And let's see, all those folks who were homeless because of Sandy are now all OK, right? FEMA has been on the job - no worries, right? Everybody's got comfy jammies and plenty of heat and food for the next few days, right. USA! USA! USA!

Just 'cause we're so damned good, ya know.

Hobbleknee's picture

I'm confused.  Krugman said storms were good for the economy.

gould's fisker's picture

Since we seem to be switching from economic analysis to soothsaying over natural events like weather to forecast economic activity--which is probably fine since nary a fucking economist nor treasury secretary (ya that includes you dickhead Bob "I couldn't see it com'in" Rubin) can read their fucking watch much less know how an economy works--perhaps we're turning into the Mayans.  We can all put on our feather headresses, slap on the body paint, and start executing people when the next eclipse comes--send in the mayan drones and lets start the fucking Apocalypse with style.  The economy is fucked anyway.

Silverhog's picture

Crap, I live on Cape Cod. Only effect we could have on the GDP is Fish & Chips sales and drunks stranded between bars. 

Michelle's picture

May all of you and your loved ones stay safe.

Shizzmoney's picture

My boss is making me come into work tomorrow here in Boston, guess I'm "lucky" to have a job #amercia

mt paul's picture

long snow shovels

toboggan calls...

orangegeek's picture

We are getting rain mid next week.

Bryan's picture

Just an update on this... check out these current CNBC headlines... Tyler was right!

 

Storm Nemo Pushes Fuel Prices to 2013 Highs

'Nemo' Will Take a Bite Out of February Retail

 

Oh well.... NEXT quarter we'll surely have positive GDP!  (if there's no storm, volcano, earthquake, war, pandemic, poverty, etc etc).  Or, as Krugman would say:  "Ceteris paribus"