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Brent-WTI Surges To 2-Month Highs
Both the spring maintenance period in the US (creating a 'glut' of WTI), Seaway pipeline, and tensions in the Middle East are exaggerating the Brent-WTI spread which traded back to two-month highs. In the last week or so the differential has surged from around $16 to over $22 as WTI fell and Brent prices surged. There is a great degree of seasonality in this shift (and typically the Spring maintenance period has ended within the next week) but Iranian sanctions remain at the forefront (as does the belief that Germany's growth will be the engine of European demand - especially if EUR drops). This year was 'different' in so much as WTI outperformed for the first few weeks - potentially on the back of the global rise in risk-assets thanks to global central bank largesse. It appears the oil market is hinting at some slowdown.
The Brent-WTI spread is highly seasonal (with Spring maintenance creating a buildup pre-refinery)... and is close to its typical seasonal peak..
but the divergence is dramatic (after a few weeks of Central bank largesse pumped assets up everywhere)...
Chart: Bloomberg
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So much in one little sentence.
by the way i forgot to write it but what i was getting at was that in miami you could really fine tune your appreciation between what is a good asset and what is a total waste of money, what is just showing off and trying to create prestige, and what is really value. You learn pretty quickly that $20k for a night in the club is the biggest waste of money on this planet. You couldnt tear up $20,000 that fast! So living in the most wasteful and fake place on earth does make one appreciate where value is (and what are good hard assets!) and where it isn't. Certainly not every Miami resident learns it, lol, but thats why I like to cite that quote, for me the 10+ years I spent there were quite an education because I also was there from the early 90's right up until the biggest boom in Miami's entire history of existence. I remember being on the way to the airport the last time (ive been back to visit since though) and just trying in vain to count the endless cranes in the sky.
The psychotic head Imam has told the Messiah (Obama) that there will be no nuke talks....the fire of the prophet will be theirs and shall rain down upon the infidel.....the bombs will indeed fall...just when not if
There were a few articles on zh recently on making a sell call just by.
call me paranoid or a die hard zh fan but I think those calls were not far off the mark
And things are being pushed along a bit further just to promote the 'zh makes you lose money' crowd. ZH now has its enemies.
The more the better I say.
We'll see how the next 3 weeks go.
I'm thinking more the Dow than oil
ZH has enemies?
That's a good sign
Prestigious even...
The only thing - Is it good or bad that ZH came up in Brennan's confirmation hearing?
Say what?
My charts say $98.25 is the three month high. What gives...I am waiting for $100 before shorting.
With Ben Shalom manipulating the markets you're better off consulting the Magic 8 Ball. 8 Ball sez "you're fucked"
Summary and contrary:collapse of the Brent price is guarantied ,WTI headed into 68-73$ as no mindful jerk drives on cosmic price fuel,the Ethanol now is 50% cheaper and plenty supply,so you car can easy be feeled with it,just 2.47$ galoon:follow us and you will understand where prices headed:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/
"Ethanol now is 50% cheaper" - right, and what does the energy recovered over energy invested for ethanol production look like again?!?! Give use the number in joules bitch, LMFAO!!!! Invest a trillion joules to get a few million joules to burn - "winning".
Lots of things look cheaper when subsidised to the fucking max with "cheaply" printed benny bucks and mark to fucking fantasy accounting.
christ.
I've had to conclude that ethanol has to be corruption. We can't possibly be that bad at math.
Ps. We now produce more corn for ethanol than food. Brilliant
government lies to you from left to right corner,its every government,demand on one thing or another very easy today produce via Future markets which is NowHow of current plitics,try to take off from them this privilage and you get into World War 3,thats why as you see,the corn used for ethanol by USA was limited,still they are trying picture it as troubles,please,most americans are lost their brain to do simple mathematic,read a full report,this tells that from 100% ethanol used by USA only 35% o less made in USA,but made outside actually now falls into smaller amount imported and total demand falls,this is bullish for bears and bearish for government bulls,good for consumers,shows who is real oil stuff price manipulator,no reasons to be in 95$ area,but all fundamentals shows 68-73$ and even lower,the thing is-the oil is major taxation tool for government!
Mr.Psyho,I'm permanent bear on oil and this dates telling dear friend that regardless amrican efforts to buy from Brasil stuff which is Ethanol,the demand for it fallin,the part of Ethanol in use in USA also falling,this dates telling that there is no connection between government "paka paka" talks like your try to portray as subsidised ethanol,this is ethanol which is not coming from subsidising,this says the real deman sucks,even for ethanol and so,the oil price at 95$ iz unjustified by any meanings by USA government,this telling us about price fix by this sucker government,"read between lines",why people so stubbrony idots to not catch simple idea:if the ethanol prices collapsed by 50% and became affordable from consumer prospectives,why there is no demand on the cheap energy?Why in one sector no deman and low prices and in brent oil no demand("demand" by government media) and high prices?This is telling that oil prices are fix of interesting governmental bodies-dummy!sorry,hope its did not heat you,any how it was for free,so do not cry it was from budget money!
WTI Oil topped in early Feb.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/wti-oil-daily-falls-early-closes-margin...
We could push past $98, but for now, the trend looks bearish. If the Euro recovers, WTI should head higher too.
Absolute top shelf article and analysis here:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-twilight-of-petroleum.html
It should be very clear as to what is slowly but surely being played out in the oil markets....
I've caught some of his stuff before, think in some documentaries. Those blues are making me blue. And young boys red all over.
Great read. Be sure to read the sub link:
http://crashoil.blogspot.it/2010/06/como-es-un-colapso.html
(you will have to translate the page to english)
Those crooks (US OIL mafia) know that US have plenty of OIL, that's why prices will stay around $100, until they sell everything to the last drop. Why US blow few trillion $ in Iraq? Where is that cheap OIL??? They rob taxpayers then and keep robbing them now by selling 4$ GAS at the pump. Delete Pentagon!
You clearly have no idea what is going on, do you?
Agree with your second sentence. There is no more "cheap" oil. Did you think it would last forever? Do you think as it depletes, that it gets easier (read cheaper) to get? Do you think the US can produce more than it consumes? Do you think 7-9 billion people can consume as much as us when the world, fifty years later, is consuming exponentially more in every corner of the earth. There are only 300 million of us. We will be consuming less, a lot less. You're right that Iraq (and soon Iran) gains us nothing but enemies but hey, that's what middle aged empires do. They can't help it.
US Oil companies do not control price to a great degree. Crude and the products derived from it are priced as a commodity world-wide. The 4.00 gasoline price does not reflect as much current supply as it does world-wide demand and increasing costs to produce. Those fast depleting, low volume shale oil wells are not cheap to drill. Nor are refinieries cheap to build or maintain and China etc will pay whatever it takes to get their ever growing share. Also note the major oil companies production of crude is going down, even with increased drilling. Its finite, unless you believe in the tin-foil abiotic theory.
Time for another geology lesson.
It doesn't matter where oil comes from. Biotic or abiotic. If you are looking at seismic imagery from a gravimeter, you look for rock formations under which a trap can exist.
Such formations are not everywhere. Odds are very high you don't have one under you this moment. If oil was abiotic, it still has to gather in a trap. Remember, we're talking about 100 million years in this matter. Without the right folding of sedimentary rock, there will be no pores and no permeability. That 100 million years will give the oil time to migrate away, perhaps upwards, to dissociate and become nothing.
So you look for the correct seismic imagery and you drill there. You do that with no concern or interest in abiotic vs biotic. It doesn't matter.
As for shale layers and sedimentary rock between them, this has been known about for 30 years. Horizontal drilling and fracking have been done about 20 years. The Barnett shale had some horizontals in the 90's, and they all stopped for the same reason. Money. It's a hugely expensive drilling method. Therefore, and read this carefully, **technology** did not make Bakken oil flow. Price did. If the price were $75/barrel, those oil rigs would shut down, the decline rates for horizontal wells would kick in (they are extremely steep), and you would next have gurus running for microphones demanding "investment". In oil field jargon, investment means spending money to drill frantically to offset decline rates in already producing wells.
This is one of the few areas of oil where money can create it. For the vast majority of oil fields, only geology decides if you can retrieve oil, regardless of money.
I fully agree with what you are saying. I only mention abiotic as it has been put forth by some people as being something that will vastly reflate our reserves of crude. It isn't the reserves, it the flow rates anyhow. Cheap oil is over, unless the entire world economy crashes. But even then, if crude fell to $5.00 a barrel, we wouldn't be able to afford the 5 bucks.
Well said Crash. Us humans hate it when the earth has the last say. And it will
Oh neato....time for oil to be the next surging tide that comes out and everything will have to react positively too again....can someone just stop this stupid roller coaster its really past tedious at this point.
While we are on the subject of oil.... here is another take on Keystone XL
Koch Brothers Driving Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada to Cut Out Venezuelan Oil
Like Tyler(s), Palast is a real journalist. Does tough issues. Did great work on the executive fucking with he voting system, exploiting soldiers by sending registration to their home address knowing they were in Iraq, fixing elections, the Bush Dynasty....
There are a couple of small errors, e.g. WCS is really Western Canadian Select. But he is bang on about exploiting WCS-Brent spread, i.e. the refined products scale with Brent. Throw in tax free exports and you have a good idea where the refined tar sands products are heading....
Someone should tell the Kochs "Don't piss on me and tell me it's raining"....