China's Surreal Economic Data: GDP Is Both CNY51.9 Trillion And CNY57.7 Trillion At The Same Time

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese economic data is always good for a laugh. So, courtesy of some observations by Diapason's Sean Corrigan, let's laugh.

From February 8 "Material Evidence"

It seems that nothing will stop the idiot savants – as well as the consciously misleading - from plugging whatever numbers the state propaganda machine churns out straight into their ‘models’ in order to lend some spurious gloss of calculation to such pronouncements, no matter how unreliable, contradictory, or plain incredible these may be.


Take the Chinese GDP number for the broadest of these: Officially, last year’s nominal total came to CNY51.9 trillion, an increase of 9.8% or CNY4.6 trillion on 2011’s count. Yet, by adding up the individual data produced separately by the nation’s constituent 31 provinces and autonomous regions, we can calculate that the annual sum reached CNY57.7 trillion (11% higher), and that growth accelerated to 11.1% yoy, representing an increment of CNY5.8 trillion which was a quarter larger than that given by the official tally. Spreadsheets, anyone?


By now it has become almost trite to compare the electricity stats with those for GDP or industrial production, yet we have a rather worrying disconnect in other areas of energy use, too. Industry up by a double-digit amount alongside a gain in refined oil product use of no more than half of that (5.2% yoy), of which diesel consumption barely ahead at 1.5%? Makes perfect sense to me!


Then we have the miraculous rebound in ‘profits’ posted in December (and we will risk a roll of the eyes by asking, once again, how can businesses even begin to compute earnings on a monthly basis?). Setting the seal on QIV’s auspicious rebound and so helping the Shanghai Composite to a further 8% gain, December’s winnings were supposedly a cool 68% greater than the average of the previous three months; revenues were no less than 13% higher and, hence, margins were reported to have jumped by half from 6.5% to 9.7%. Oh, for such levels of operational gearing in an expanding market!

In other words, essentially every piece of economic data coming out of China is fabricated garbage. But since it is procyclical fabricated garbage it is good enough for algorithm ramp work.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Where are those damn proof readers when you need them? Everyone knows fiction needs to be believable in order to sell.

Facts on the other hand...........

(In case you are interested, here is my latest ZH musings. Please leave feedback. I'm still answering them.)

spastic_colon's picture

who cares about facts as long as we recover the 3 point "plunge" in ES yesterday

knukles's picture

Schrodingers economy

You didn't make that GDP yourself
7 trillion CNY or whatever saved or created

Booyah dog wokers

The enema of my friend is my friends enema

bania's picture

China's economy is both alive and dead until observed by Bernanke!

eclectic syncretist's picture

“Meaningless! Meaningless!”
    says the Teacher.
“Utterly meaningless!
    Everything is meaningless.”

What do people gain from all their labors
    at which they toil under the sun?
Generations come and generations go,
    but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises and the sun sets,
    and hurries back to where it rises.
The wind blows to the south
    and turns to the north;
round and round it goes,
    ever returning on its course.
All streams flow into the sea,
    yet the sea is never full.
To the place the streams come from,
    there they return again.
All things are wearisome,
    more than one can say.
The eye never has enough of seeing,
    nor the ear its fill of hearing.
What has been will be again,
    what has been done will be done again;
    there is nothing new under the sun.
10 Is there anything of which one can say,
    “Look! This is something new”?
It was here already, long ago;
    it was here before our time.
11 No one remembers the former generations,
    and even those yet to come
will not be remembered
    by those who follow them.

prains's picture

Fuck me the chinks are a bunch of googs

come on Ananalogous Anus show us your stuff

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

knukles said:

Schrodingers economy

Much clear understanding do you giving with Chinese citizenism economy.

Chinese citizenism econometrics follow Heisenberg Yuancertainty Principle being true of two different values simultaneity.

This making state of Schroedinger's delicious cat not knowable until box delivered by rickshaw graciously. With opening box can then one see if containment is Schroedinger's stir-fried cat in spicy ginger sauce or Schroedinger's slow-roasted cat with pineapple glaze.

Booyah dog wokers

Ah, wokked dog very much the popular meal at Chinese citizenism fast-food franchise JKC (Just-Killed Cat).

zapdude's picture

* Please note the aforementioned rickshaw delivery may encounter a delay should the runner need to take a leisurely dump along side of the road en route.  Wiping paper surcharges will not apply however, as all our distinguished rickshaw runners carry an ample supply of Federal Reserve Notes for this purpose.

Antifaschistische's picture

When you walk the streets of China...with an economic doesn't matter...pick the City.   Changsha.  You look at all the commerce happening at the street level and you ask yourself.  How in the heck is all this being captured in GDP numbers.  Answer.  It isn't.   China's underground economy is giant.

I'm not justifying their numbers, and I know their leaders are a propaganda machine.  But I like China because people there do believe in working for a living.  6 days a week for most, and they work long hours.  Their students believe in studying...not partying.  They do not have a parasite community like the US that wants a job just because of the way they look, or their gender, or their sexual preference.   They actually believe in working.  Okay..maybe with the exception of the retired military MEN.

I understand China has huge bubbles that will burst, but their culture has the fabric that may keep it together when the seams get ripped.   I'm not quite as optimistic for the US culture when the same seams blow out.


GMadScientist's picture

I'm sure the Uighur will be very impressed with little red book when the time comes.

We're all 3 meals from anarchy.

shovelhead's picture

4 meals for me.

I'm slimming down to be a smaller drone target.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bombs away.

<Gots to get ya while they can still see ya.> :)

tonyw's picture

In other words, essentially every piece of economic data coming out of China is fabricated garbage

There fixed it for all of you.


Edit, strange "coming out of china" has strikeout in preview but not after save

verum quod lies's picture

That's a nice vote confidence against those lazy Americans and for our red Chinese black market overlords; but I thought this piece was about the Chinese equivalent of BLS not being able to add and cross-check their numbers? Maybe the Chinese government statisticians should try studying and working seven days a week instead of the six you mention, and then maybe they might catch such errors in the future.

BTW, the "fabric" their culture has is that the Han haven't been forced to have to deal with being diversitied to death. The US culture would be significantly strongly as we head into this depression if the population was much more homogenous (e.g., like the Han; or even like we were before the last depression). Tribal diversity is a weakness, not a strength; while one could argue that intellectual diversity tends to be useful for invention (i.e., as opposed to stealing and copying).


strangewalk's picture

I lived in China too and the famed culture is dog eat dog. It's true most of the people work, but that doesn't mean they want to. There are no safety nets and they would much rather make money by cheating, lying and stealing because they can see clearly that's how the successful among them did it.  

LongSoupLine's picture

Modern Chinese propaganda is Sun Tzu on fucking meth.


Just goes to show, that vast oceans and differing cultures doesn't change the fucking scum sucking greed and corruption in those fucking assholes with power.


Fuck all you corrupt stinking shitheads in power.  Fucking dicks.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't hold back LongSoupLine.

Tell us how you really feel. :)

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Tip for them: sync your fudged numbers. That helps.

Rainman's picture

Another round of applause for Larry Lang, who called China's bullshit numbers 15 months ago.

" All provinces of China are Greece "


GetZeeGold's picture there going to be a press conference....or is that just it?

El Hosel's picture

Not to worry, just the Ying and the Yang Bitchez.  Move Arr-wrong round eye... Transitory Discrepancy

thismarketisrigged's picture

fuck china,bunch of communist bastards, 

ghengis86's picture

They do pick up the statistical manipulation from Uncle Sam quite well

What can't those chinks reverse engineer?! (edit: printing presses and linen/paper?)

GMadScientist's picture

Ingenuity and innovation; the communist culture is preclusive to the individual expression required to develop these skills.


Inthemix96's picture

Well, I just spoke to Paul Krugnams and he reckons its legit.

And if its good enough for the worlds most premiere economists, it should be good enuf for you lot.

And them chinese are as striaght as an arrow and would never tell porkies, trust me, I know these things.

Oldwood's picture

He who can sell the biggest lie, wins!

Dr. Engali's picture

It's not like anybody is paying attention anyway. Just BTFD is all you need to know..the Bernank has your back.

Oldwood's picture

To infinity and beyond?

knukles's picture

Way the fuck beyond

Honey, did you get our reservation for dinner at the end of the universe?
Way beyond

Tsar Pointless's picture

Yeah, no shit.

The only thing I ever hear people talking about where I work is the local NHL outfit, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The ONLY thing. Other than the weather, of course.

Oldwood's picture

I find that most of my discussions leave people somewhat "uncomfortable". Reality has become such a downer.

Xibalba's picture

just following the good ol USA

ziggy59's picture

Schrodingers Cat is Cheshiring right now..

forwardho's picture

That may be so, but you still have to open the box to verify that the smile is not the rictus grin of a dead feline.

100pcDredge's picture

Probability Clouds Inc.

riphowardkatz's picture

every piece of economic data coming out of China is fabricated garbage

should read

every piece of economic data coming out of ALL COUNTRIES is fabricated garbage 

Oldwood's picture

In a world that is built on illusion, confidence inspiring data is required. When people's short term survival is based upon faith alone, one shouldn't challenge it for fear of the retribution. We, who defy the confidence racket, are more dangerous than a jihadist with an AK47, and will be treated as such.

mantrid's picture

seasonal adjustment accoring to Chineese calendar

well at least they don't bother with re-re-re-revits

gould&#039;s fisker's picture

They're just following the ways of the Western World.  If it's important enough lie, everything our political and economic leaders say is true except for those parts that aren't, and if you want to keep the unemployment level "down" around 8% just start statistically whacking about 200K workers a month by banishing them to "they've stopped looking for work" land.  So what were we talking about the fucking Chinese again? I forgot.

DavidC's picture

Can someone tell me WTF happened on the US open?


orangegeek's picture

The way to collapse China is to shut down all KFC restaurants - will spread massive panic.

RagnarDanneskjold's picture

Chinese national statistics bureau uses different numbers. They've known about this for years and it is an "open secret" in China. From 2004: Lies, damn lies and Chinese statistics

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national GDP registered 5.877 trillion yuan (US$708 billion) in the first six months of 2004, and a year-on-year growth of 9.7%. Theoretically, these data must cover China's 23 provinces, five autonomous prefectures and four provincial-level municipalities. However, if one adds up the interim GDP results released by all these 32 local governments, one gets 7.027 trillion yuan, and an average growth of 13.4%. That's just how exaggerated the reports by local governments can be. 

shovelhead's picture

Somebody forgot to tell the provinces not to include the bribes as GDP numbers.

highwaytoserfdom's picture

In other words, essentially every piece of economic data coming out of China US is fabricated garbage

Well price gouging ongass and food has sarted payroll taxes on on those por slobs that work as usury banksters get zero % and execesive pay aprovial.     Makes perfec sense to me.  WHAT IS THE PROBLEM DON'T YOU FEEL SAFER?  Complain ?  Heck  drone market and security is booming protecting us from twenty one  box knife Saudies?  Hey I think I found the weapons of mass destruction..... IT IS THE USURY FIAT ( TRUST ME)

spanish inquisition's picture

They are playing the fiat game, the longer they can keep it alive, the bigger the collapse. In the mean time, playing the game allows them to buy cheap gold.