So Who Is Lying (More)?

Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight China reported great trade data which saw exports and imports soar by more than 20% each compared to 2012. Of course, when one adjusts for January calendar effects the "rise" was virtually non-existent but that was too much work for the Shanghai Composite algos. A few hours later, the US did the same, reporting even better trade data which saw the trade deficit plunge the most in nearly three years. So far so good: we just have one question - who is lying more. Because unlike all other sole-sourced economic manipulated data which is solely a function of some excel goal seek model and various spreadsheets, bilateral trade has to foot. One country's net exports have to equal its countepart's net imports and vice versa.

Which is why we compiled the net trade data between the US and China, which was trumpeted earlier to have surpassed a $300 billion ($315 billion to be exact) deficit. At least as reported by the US side. The same "data", when reported from the perspective of China amounts to a surplus of some $219 billion, a difference of $96 billion!

The chart below shows the LTM net exports to the US from China's perspective (in blue) and the net imports from China from the US point of view (in red), with the black line the resulting net difference.

In other words, either China is massively underreporting its net exports to the US or the US is boosting its net imports figure.

Or, just as plausibly, both nations are simply pulling numbers out of thin air - numbers which have a massive impact on both nations' respective GDP prints, which is data that, at least in the Old Normal, used to matter.

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valkir's picture

OT-Farage about banana republic of EU



midtowng's picture

$96 Billion here. $96 Billion there. Pretty soon you are talking about real money.

Sockeye's picture

Farage nails it, again.

Sudden Debt's picture




SheepleInAction's picture




SafelyGraze's picture

that's a mighty fine avatar you got there

SheepleInAction's picture

Thank you sir. Your avatar looks very familiar.

W74's picture

Nice laughs to start the day.

eclectic syncretist's picture

Did Sherman burn any corn during his path of destruction through the South?

Zigs's picture

We call it "creative destruction."

LongSoupLine's picture

Or, just as plausibly, both nations are simply pulling numbers out of thin air


Bingo!  It's a fucking huge propagana fuck fest by the elite, and the middle class of the globe are the fucked. doesn't matter.  They're all fucking crooks and shit eating assholes that deserve their fucking necks cracked open.  pricks.

DeadFred's picture

It's evidence that the Martians who are acting as intermediates in the trade are skimming. Don't you hate it when they do that?


Divided States of America's picture

Its easier to count the number of ppl telling the truth these days...which is none. THe effin Japanese govt is no better...but unfortunately the sheeps in Japan are the most gullible sheeps out there and they would do anything, including starve to death, for their govt. Loyalty and Honor is good, but not this extreme. Thats why Japan is the first test of the currency war, because the Japanese people have the greatest tolerance threshold for not rebelling against their govt. If the Japanese ppl starts to wake up and protest, this will be the end of this carry trade and everything will revert back in a heart beat.

forwardho's picture

but unfortunately the sheeps in Japan are the most gullible sheeps out there

gullible? The people of japan know as well as ZH's that all is an illusion, a fantasy, an artifcial construct.

Collectively, they must "believe" or perish in the ensuing slag of reality.

If we are to be honest with ourselves, we also take part in this grandest of false realities. 

You don't get to choose which realty you exist in, we react the the stimulus we are presented.

That is called... Life.


thismarketisrigged's picture

come on tyler, these criminals needed an excuse to make sure the major averages are up so much today, so we end green for the week and continue the streak.


both of them are fucking liars, bunch of thieves.  


i just heard jim cramer talk about how u.s.a is great and thinks its a great investing opp, i want to punch him so hard

bigdumbnugly's picture

well we all know anything coming from the u.s. is bloated and from china is slanted.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is typical purist libertarian thinking. Not everything is black and white. Figures aren't always exact and perfect like a libertarian utopia. The world comes in shades of grey.

francis_sawyer's picture

 "Figures aren't always exact and perfect"


MDB is right... That's why it's possible go to bed with a "10" & wake up with a "2"...

GolfHatesMe's picture

Apparently 96 billion shades of grey

W74's picture

More agit-prop filth to turn (well solidify) more American women in to slutty materialistic bobbleheads.

Seasmoke's picture

Beating Tyler to the punch on Friday Humor.

LongSoupLine's picture

The world comes in shades of grey. - Supreme Master of Trolls. MDB


Au contraire my good troll...Dark Pools are not any fucking cheersome shade of "grey".

azzhatter's picture

Funny, this was my first thought this morning hearing the data. Whom exactly is China exporting to?

toady's picture

I hate lyres poker

fuu's picture


Government Designed Propaganda

101 years and counting's picture

the missing 96 billion is sitting on the bottom of the pacific.  goal seek...bitchez.

Racer's picture

That is an impossible question to answer!

disabledvet's picture

could be actual money that is "fleeing" China itself. We know the amount leaving the country is staggering "for fear of the State simply stealing it." Obviously this isn't "reported" per se but it's one of those things that we all know is going on as the New York Times so well reported vis a vis China's new Premier and "where his and his family's new billions came from." the whole state is a kleptocracy...along with so many others in the world..."they're just a more productive kleptocracy."

W74's picture

Pretty much where we're headed.  Just look at government employees and (worse) private companies who's revenues come overwhelmingly or soley from government largesse.  The whole system is one big scam.

I live in Maryland, there are 5 types of people each divided into roughly 20% of the pie.

1. Government workers: Police, FFs, Teachers, road crews, NSA employees and other lettered agencies, and state and local office workers, MVA, more and more military due to BRAC, etc.

2. Governmet contractors: Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin, road maintenance contractors, L3, General Dynamics, and hundreds of companies that work at Ft. Meade, Aberdeen Prooving Grounds, Andrews AFB, the Naval Academy and one of the largest Coast Guard facilities on the east coast.

3. Retierees.

4. Welfare (who often make more than #5 below)

5. Private sector employees.

So who do y'all think is paying for it all?  My state is uberfucked once TSHTF.  Only criminals here have guns.

kito's picture

as i commented before, a shrinking trade deficit is the worst thing that could happen to ben and co.------without the ability to offshore those bennybucks and get them absorbed into the system around the world........ben is stuck....sure doesnt want to see dollars flow back home.........that is one avenue for hyperinflation to take hold......gubbmint better work harder to keep that deficit sky high........gotta have those dollars spreading faster globally than bird flu..............................

W74's picture

I've been thinking about this for a long time.  What happens when our chickens come home to roost?  Once people around the world perceive a significant change in the value of the USD they'll be quick to unload that garbage as fast as possible.  There will be more sellers than buyers and that will last just long enough to become a vicious cycle.

kito's picture

im in the camp that believes, if there is to be an acute moment where everything goes to hell, it will be in the form of a massive asset deflationa style sell off --however, if i were to choose the path most likely leading to hyperinflation, it would be your thought-----that amerika will lose the ability to offshore its currency----

Seasmoke's picture

The answer is fatal.

francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe they're forgetting to christen their container ships which are subsequently as ill fated as my old sloop...

Rustysilver's picture

Chinese translation into English is hard: hence the discrepancy.

adr's picture

Who is lying more doesn't really matter. The FACT that everything is just a total pack of lies does.

Lying like this gives cover for the bullshit publicly traded corporations to lie about everything they sell. How much of the EPS beats were due to lies? I'd wager 99%.

Obamer desperately needs to avoid one mention of the recession word. Making up a trade deficit reduction, and massively increased exports, helps revise GDP higher. He did say he wanted to increase US exports, he didn't tell people the bulk of it would be oil and gasoline to keep us paying record prices. Fudge the numbers, LOOK NO RECESSION!!!

China desperately needs to make it look like their economy is booming. The citizens of China are getting antsy, they don't believe the numbers, but the factories enjoy the cash injections to keep workers working, even if the produced product goes nowhere.

I think the reason why nobody is allowed to dive to the bottom of the marianas trench, is they would find 3 miles of the 7 mile depth filled with consumer product booked as "sold" by publicy traded corporations. I mean that couple hundred billion extra produced product that was never imported has to end up somewhere.

Silver Garbage Man's picture

Physical Gold and Silver in your hands is pure TRUTH.....everything else out there is Bullshit. This giant house of cards will fall sooner or later, and you better be ready. No excuses, you have had plenty of time. If it blows up tomorrow are you ready?

francis_sawyer's picture

Hops, malt, or grain IN your copper is pure TRUTH... BlueSteel & Lead in your hands is even purer truth than gold or silver...

CDNX fan's picture

I dunno - I'm making a lot more money owning stocks the past eighteen months than in the precious metals. You tinfoil hat guys are starting to lose it.

LongSoupLine's picture

Fucking Tin Foil??



You fucking ADHD asshole, this isn't about herd mentality into full retard beta to brag about short term gains.  It's about a fully encompassing structural fuckfest that is going to destroy economies and billions of innocent people worldwide.

Get your fucking head out of your ass.