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So Who Is Lying (More)?

Tyler Durden's picture


Overnight China reported great trade data which saw exports and imports soar by more than 20% each compared to 2012. Of course, when one adjusts for January calendar effects the "rise" was virtually non-existent but that was too much work for the Shanghai Composite algos. A few hours later, the US did the same, reporting even better trade data which saw the trade deficit plunge the most in nearly three years. So far so good: we just have one question - who is lying more. Because unlike all other sole-sourced economic manipulated data which is solely a function of some excel goal seek model and various spreadsheets, bilateral trade has to foot. One country's net exports have to equal its countepart's net imports and vice versa.

Which is why we compiled the net trade data between the US and China, which was trumpeted earlier to have surpassed a $300 billion ($315 billion to be exact) deficit. At least as reported by the US side. The same "data", when reported from the perspective of China amounts to a surplus of some $219 billion, a difference of $96 billion!

The chart below shows the LTM net exports to the US from China's perspective (in blue) and the net imports from China from the US point of view (in red), with the black line the resulting net difference.

In other words, either China is massively underreporting its net exports to the US or the US is boosting its net imports figure.

Or, just as plausibly, both nations are simply pulling numbers out of thin air - numbers which have a massive impact on both nations' respective GDP prints, which is data that, at least in the Old Normal, used to matter.


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Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:56 | 3225738 valkir
valkir's picture

OT-Farage about banana republic of EU



Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:15 | 3225813 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The battle of the monkeys!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:20 | 3225981 midtowng
midtowng's picture

$96 Billion here. $96 Billion there. Pretty soon you are talking about real money.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:16 | 3225817 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Farage nails it, again.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:21 | 3225828 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture




Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:36 | 3225871 SheepleInAction
SheepleInAction's picture




Fri, 02/08/2013 - 13:00 | 3226134 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

that's a mighty fine avatar you got there

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 14:45 | 3226540 SheepleInAction
SheepleInAction's picture

Thank you sir. Your avatar looks very familiar.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:37 | 3225876 W74
W74's picture

Nice laughs to start the day.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 13:05 | 3226160 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

nobody calls 007 a chicken


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 19:21 | 3227511 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:56 | 3225742 swiss chick
swiss chick's picture


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:16 | 3225815 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Did Sherman burn any corn during his path of destruction through the South?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:43 | 3226066 Zigs
Zigs's picture

We call it "creative destruction."

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:57 | 3225751 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Or, just as plausibly, both nations are simply pulling numbers out of thin air


Bingo!  It's a fucking huge propagana fuck fest by the elite, and the middle class of the globe are the fucked. doesn't matter.  They're all fucking crooks and shit eating assholes that deserve their fucking necks cracked open.  pricks.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:01 | 3225772 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's evidence that the Martians who are acting as intermediates in the trade are skimming. Don't you hate it when they do that?


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:15 | 3225814 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Its easier to count the number of ppl telling the truth these days...which is none. THe effin Japanese govt is no better...but unfortunately the sheeps in Japan are the most gullible sheeps out there and they would do anything, including starve to death, for their govt. Loyalty and Honor is good, but not this extreme. Thats why Japan is the first test of the currency war, because the Japanese people have the greatest tolerance threshold for not rebelling against their govt. If the Japanese ppl starts to wake up and protest, this will be the end of this carry trade and everything will revert back in a heart beat.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:39 | 3225879 forwardho
forwardho's picture

but unfortunately the sheeps in Japan are the most gullible sheeps out there

gullible? The people of japan know as well as ZH's that all is an illusion, a fantasy, an artifcial construct.

Collectively, they must "believe" or perish in the ensuing slag of reality.

If we are to be honest with ourselves, we also take part in this grandest of false realities. 

You don't get to choose which realty you exist in, we react the the stimulus we are presented.

That is called... Life.


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:58 | 3225754 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

come on tyler, these criminals needed an excuse to make sure the major averages are up so much today, so we end green for the week and continue the streak.


both of them are fucking liars, bunch of thieves.  


i just heard jim cramer talk about how u.s.a is great and thinks its a great investing opp, i want to punch him so hard

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:10 | 3225799 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well we all know anything coming from the u.s. is bloated and from china is slanted.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:58 | 3225755 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is typical purist libertarian thinking. Not everything is black and white. Figures aren't always exact and perfect like a libertarian utopia. The world comes in shades of grey.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:02 | 3225773 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

How many shades of grey? Fifty?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:06 | 3225788 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "Figures aren't always exact and perfect"


MDB is right... That's why it's possible go to bed with a "10" & wake up with a "2"...

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:19 | 3225826 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

That quote made my week!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:11 | 3225801 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Apparently 96 billion shades of grey

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:33 | 3225865 W74
W74's picture

More agit-prop filth to turn (well solidify) more American women in to slutty materialistic bobbleheads.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:03 | 3225777 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Beating Tyler to the punch on Friday Humor.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:05 | 3225786 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

The world comes in shades of grey. - Supreme Master of Trolls. MDB


Au contraire my good troll...Dark Pools are not any fucking cheersome shade of "grey".

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:58 | 3225756 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Funny, this was my first thought this morning hearing the data. Whom exactly is China exporting to?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:58 | 3225757 toady
toady's picture

I hate lyres poker

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:59 | 3225759 fuu
fuu's picture


Government Designed Propaganda

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:59 | 3225760 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the missing 96 billion is sitting on the bottom of the pacific.  goal seek...bitchez.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 10:59 | 3225763 Racer
Racer's picture

That is an impossible question to answer!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:05 | 3225784 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

could be actual money that is "fleeing" China itself. We know the amount leaving the country is staggering "for fear of the State simply stealing it." Obviously this isn't "reported" per se but it's one of those things that we all know is going on as the New York Times so well reported vis a vis China's new Premier and "where his and his family's new billions came from." the whole state is a kleptocracy...along with so many others in the world..."they're just a more productive kleptocracy."

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:54 | 3226111 W74
W74's picture

Pretty much where we're headed.  Just look at government employees and (worse) private companies who's revenues come overwhelmingly or soley from government largesse.  The whole system is one big scam.

I live in Maryland, there are 5 types of people each divided into roughly 20% of the pie.

1. Government workers: Police, FFs, Teachers, road crews, NSA employees and other lettered agencies, and state and local office workers, MVA, more and more military due to BRAC, etc.

2. Governmet contractors: Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin, road maintenance contractors, L3, General Dynamics, and hundreds of companies that work at Ft. Meade, Aberdeen Prooving Grounds, Andrews AFB, the Naval Academy and one of the largest Coast Guard facilities on the east coast.

3. Retierees.

4. Welfare (who often make more than #5 below)

5. Private sector employees.

So who do y'all think is paying for it all?  My state is uberfucked once TSHTF.  Only criminals here have guns.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:00 | 3225764 kito
kito's picture

as i commented before, a shrinking trade deficit is the worst thing that could happen to ben and co.------without the ability to offshore those bennybucks and get them absorbed into the system around the world........ben is stuck....sure doesnt want to see dollars flow back home.........that is one avenue for hyperinflation to take hold......gubbmint better work harder to keep that deficit sky high........gotta have those dollars spreading faster globally than bird flu..............................

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:31 | 3225858 W74
W74's picture

I've been thinking about this for a long time.  What happens when our chickens come home to roost?  Once people around the world perceive a significant change in the value of the USD they'll be quick to unload that garbage as fast as possible.  There will be more sellers than buyers and that will last just long enough to become a vicious cycle.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:42 | 3225884 kito
kito's picture

im in the camp that believes, if there is to be an acute moment where everything goes to hell, it will be in the form of a massive asset deflationa style sell off --however, if i were to choose the path most likely leading to hyperinflation, it would be your thought-----that amerika will lose the ability to offshore its currency----

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:01 | 3225765 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

The answer is fatal.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:03 | 3225778 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe they're forgetting to christen their container ships which are subsequently as ill fated as my old sloop...

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:06 | 3225790 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

Chinese translation into English is hard: hence the discrepancy.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:07 | 3225792 adr
adr's picture

Who is lying more doesn't really matter. The FACT that everything is just a total pack of lies does.

Lying like this gives cover for the bullshit publicly traded corporations to lie about everything they sell. How much of the EPS beats were due to lies? I'd wager 99%.

Obamer desperately needs to avoid one mention of the recession word. Making up a trade deficit reduction, and massively increased exports, helps revise GDP higher. He did say he wanted to increase US exports, he didn't tell people the bulk of it would be oil and gasoline to keep us paying record prices. Fudge the numbers, LOOK NO RECESSION!!!

China desperately needs to make it look like their economy is booming. The citizens of China are getting antsy, they don't believe the numbers, but the factories enjoy the cash injections to keep workers working, even if the produced product goes nowhere.

I think the reason why nobody is allowed to dive to the bottom of the marianas trench, is they would find 3 miles of the 7 mile depth filled with consumer product booked as "sold" by publicy traded corporations. I mean that couple hundred billion extra produced product that was never imported has to end up somewhere.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:09 | 3225795 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Physical Gold and Silver in your hands is pure TRUTH.....everything else out there is Bullshit. This giant house of cards will fall sooner or later, and you better be ready. No excuses, you have had plenty of time. If it blows up tomorrow are you ready?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:11 | 3225803 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What about platinum? Or copper?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:15 | 3225808 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Hops, malt, or grain IN your copper is pure TRUTH... BlueSteel & Lead in your hands is even purer truth than gold or silver...

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:17 | 3225821 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm tired of magic metal.


Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:10 | 3225800 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

I dunno - I'm making a lot more money owning stocks the past eighteen months than in the precious metals. You tinfoil hat guys are starting to lose it.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:19 | 3225823 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fucking Tin Foil??



You fucking ADHD asshole, this isn't about herd mentality into full retard beta to brag about short term gains.  It's about a fully encompassing structural fuckfest that is going to destroy economies and billions of innocent people worldwide.

Get your fucking head out of your ass.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:44 | 3225886 Michelle
Michelle's picture

I've said this before but I'm saying it again...nobody knows when or how this will end and could go on far longer, decades or centuries perhaps, than anyone expects and the ending may not be that of financial collapse. My uncle predicted it would happen in the 70's and has since died, his son is still waiting, too. In the meantime there is always an asset class where funny money can be made as a "hedge" so diversification is a good strategy just in case the whole thing doesn't blow up as so many here predict.

I have referred friends to this site and after some time reading the articles concluded that this site is just too negative and no longer visit. I myself have to glean through the opinions and data and draw my own conclusions. For the most part this site draws the most pessimistic of the pessimistic and I have to remind myself of that fact whenever here.

The bottom line is that there's always some place to make money and understanding the limited amount of time we have to accumulate wealth is the biggest reason for not boxing ourselves into a certain asset class. I chose not to be like my uncle but to each their own.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:51 | 3225912 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

And other than being overly negative about stocks, what exactly has zh been wrong about? I'm sure there are plenty of fluff pieces in the WSJ or on CNBC for those of you still hugging your normalcy bias. 

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:55 | 3225920 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Brethren and sistren, be seated!

Negativity (which includes "realism") is un-American. Plain and simple.

Don't mess with Mr. In-between.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:34 | 3226028 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Not saying ZH is wrong, just saying that the timing is unpredictable.

FWIW, I have MADE FAR MORE MONEY being OPTIMISTIC and have only LOST MONEY when being PESSIMISTIC. That speaks volumes to me. Not that anyone here cares but my family cares and that's all that matters to me.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:43 | 3226062 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

As long as you're reaching your goals.

My goal is to avoid trying to serve two masters. That's just me. I'm doing a great job.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:48 | 3226082 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Being optimistic? Are you fucking kidding me? It's that $85 billion per month slush fund under your ass.

It has nothing to do with optimism. Tell me how optimistic you feel the next time you leave the grocery store or gas station!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 13:32 | 3226272 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Yup, and I was buying in 2008 and 2009 before the liquidity started flowing again courtesy of BB, but I was OPTIMISTIC. Of course I knew if everything went to shit that everything would be worthless but I figured I had nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Yen, obviously you use the financial markets to make money, why bother? It's all worthless, right? I'll bet if I placed all my worthless fiat cash in a clear plastic bag and set it on a park bench nobody would steal the worthless shit. Sure.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 14:43 | 3226536 joego1
joego1's picture

It may not be clear how long the illusion of making wealth is going to last but it is clear to me that the same crooks that robbed me in 2008 will be back again at some time in the near future. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind about that. By the time you get the news the market is going down your shit will be gone in a wall street nano fuck second. If you can't touch it you don't own it and if you can touch it the government wants to tax it or take it.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:44 | 3225890 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

I say who gives a shit. Let the idiots have their day in the sun with a few percent of nominal gains. It won't be long until they lose most of their real wealth. The fact that this clown reads zero hedge and still doesn't get it, is testament to the inevitability of the coming hyperinflation. 

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:10 | 3225955 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Really, really intellectually lazy comment. Wooohoo I'm making money. You know how many people said that in 2007?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:48 | 3226083 Black Swan 9
Black Swan 9's picture

Unless & until you book those illusory paper profits, you haven't made anything.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:23 | 3225831 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Get fuckin' real.  The Chines will never be able to outlie us.  After all, the Chinese are buying megatonnes of gold behind their little lies, while our government is accepting the USTreasury bonds they printed years ago for the gold.  We're fuckin' livin' the lie bitchez.  We lie to ourselves so effectively that nobody outlies the USA.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:23 | 3225835 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Just as you have the Bamster trying to nick your weapons lets me give you an idea whats going on here,

Britain has a national debt of around 1.5 Trillion pounds sterling.  Un-employment is rocketing, we are over run with both legal and illegal immigration, we produce nothing of value bar fucking crime from the "City Of London", we have been over run with "Health And Safety" at work places around the country, our elected politicians are either peodophiles, fraudsters, out-right thieves, incompetant, and so are the members of the judicary, police force, and high level governmental positions, gas and electric bills are going up on average (combined, just before christmas 16%), wages stagnating and food banks exploding last year by 40%.

And do you know what our right honourable gentlemen are worried about?

Fucking "Gay Marriage".  I kid you fucking not, we are so far deep in the shit we cannot get out and all the fucking in-bred cunts are worried about is blokes getting married to each other.

Once again, and we wonder why we are fucked??  Google a bloke called Chris Spivey if you want to find out some fucking surreal shit going on here.  I have genuinely had enough of this shit.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:30 | 3225855 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Funny, I wonder where your representatives learned THAT slight-of-hand?!?

Surprised 'gay marriage' wasn't the #1 topic at Davos. 

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:36 | 3225870 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I feel like I am living in a fucking void poor fella.

And now these fuckers have introduced a "Bedroom Tax" for poor fuckers on the dole, any less than two per bedroom and people who cannot afford it, lose benefit money when the likes of the Queen and her in-bred blue blood cunts get away with it, and the fuckers who impose this shit on us, they are also exempt as well.  And bear in mind, we pay for both the queen and the fucking thieving politicians who implement this shit on us.

But some poor cunt hardly getting by in a three bedder on a council estate has to pay this "Tax"???????

Buckingham palace has 246 bedrooms, go figure, these fuckers seriously need hanging, I am fucking sick of this shit mate, sick of it.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:54 | 3225919 poor fella
poor fella's picture

WTF!?!?!? God DAMN we are WAY into the Looking Glass! 

Gotta look that up. The colonies will have something similar too, except ours will be a tax if there's more than one person per room and they're not making babies! With our declining birth rate and all. The computers are telling TPTB it's time for another amnesty of breeding workers.

At this point America should make people buy tickets at the borders for the strangest ride ever created. Fuck it, privatize the whole fucking thing

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:02 | 3225936 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I am being deadly serious poor fella,

These cunts are destroying what is left of this once fucking marvelous, now a fucking shit-hole of a dump place I call home.

The only solace I can find is that people ARE waking up.  Google Chris Spivey and read a few of his articles, it will blow your mind mate, and bear in mind what we do, you do not long after.  You have been warned.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 14:36 | 3226519 joego1
joego1's picture

I read someplace they are going to tax the air that you breathe in the U.K.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:44 | 3225891 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Mix - deep breath...stack...deep breath...stack.  The people you're compaining about will get it right in the arse eventually and you can have the best laugh of your life.  

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:28 | 3225845 Kish80
Kish80's picture

So when the market is dropping it will of course recover to "finish off its lows". But on an up day, nothing to hold it back?

Even just watching this is sickening.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:43 | 3225885 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Getting acclimated to this, seems like every day now. Almost as if the ratchet isn't strained in the slightest? Hard to tell. 

Print a negative GDP (THE measure that's pounded into U.S. brains as something that matters) vs. a paltry 157k jobs number?!?!    flat market on the first and rally on the second. A negative QI and we'd get a rising market in the midst of an official recession, which Americans know is a flat out Depression? That would be interesting.

It's enough to make a person pull an Albert Finney in Network! And at some point, your neighbors WOULD KNOW what you're talking about. 

AOL is up... that's it. Bullish on this thing called dial-up! And the cloud! Have you heard of it?!?

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:30 | 3225846 gould's fisker
gould's fisker's picture

Tyler your post says essentially that the books should be in balance--that's a CNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, NY Times, Washington Post, yadda, yadda, yadda story, not worthy of Zero Hedge except for hyper-sarc.  There are no fucking "books" anymore, or hardworking bookkeepers to balance them--we got those computer programs run by lying fucktards and they start with the output numbers they need, and work back from there putting in "data" until the numbers work--most recent USA example is BLS working end of the year employment numbers adding a couple of hundred thousand there a month here, and minus a couple of other thousand over there, and nobody blinks a fucking eye.  That's what all of our "investments" are founded upon. Sweet dreams.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:32 | 3225862 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Orthodoxy means not thinkingnot needing to thinkOrthodoxy is unconsciousness. "

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:33 | 3225866 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

What indicators do you look for to be able to time this perfectly so my investments can run up with the market but I can jump out and buy PMs just before the crash.  I'm a rookie ZHer, so any insight would be appreciated.  Rookie hazing is also ok.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:47 | 3225900 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I was afraid someone was going to say that.  Looks like I have to ask my boss to fire me and hire me so I can get my 401k money.  

I think I'll go slam my head in the car door now.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:07 | 3225949 gould's fisker
gould's fisker's picture

Don't take it personally, everyone is fucked.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:57 | 3226121 Black Swan 9
Black Swan 9's picture

My first, and maybe only, laugh today. Thank you. :)

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 14:27 | 3226494 joego1
joego1's picture

If you wake up with a woody in the morning that means markets going up.

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 11:53 | 3225903 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

PBoC accounting can't see through all the smog. China is beyond corrupt! Then again the session is also a corrupt fucking joke!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 12:04 | 3225943 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You're lying!

Nuh uh! YOU'RE lying!

Well, yer lyin MOAR!

Uh uh! YER lyin x10 double dog no take-backs!

Oh yea? Well you're triple dog lyin double stamp no do overs!

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 13:39 | 3226306 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Slight breach of ethics goin' to the triple dog dare...

Fri, 02/08/2013 - 20:28 | 3227695 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

Net U.S. export growth YoY has been steadily declining from 2009/10, 10/11, 11/12...

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