This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Is China Mobilizing For A War With Japan?

Tyler Durden's picture


We don't know if it merely a coincidence that a story has emerged discussing a Chinese mobilization in response to the ongoing territorial feud with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands (and the proximal massive gas field) the very week that China celebrates its new year (and days after news that a Chinese warship was very close to firing on a Japanese destroyer). We don't know how much of the story is based in reality, and how much may be propaganda or furthering someone's agenda. What we do know is that the source of the story: offshore-based, Falun Gong-affiliated NTDTV has historically been a credible source of information that the China communist party desperately tries to censor, such as breaking the news of the SARS epidemic in 2003 some three weeks before China publicly admitted it. Its motto is "to bring truthful and uncensored information into and out of China." If that is indeed the case, and its story of major troop movements and mobilization of various types of military vehicles and artillery into the Fujian and Zhejian provinces, bordering the East China Sea and closest to the Diaoyu islands, is accurate, then hostilities between China and Japan may be about to take a major turn for the worse.

Fujian and Zhejian provinces highlighted below:

The clip that NTDTV released late yesterday covering the news is presented below.

As for the accompanying commentary, we recreate it below in its entirety so nothing is lost in translation (original source).

NTDTV February 8, 2013 News - the continental network transmission, Fujian and Zhejiang troops for several days active. Plus before the news that Chinese warships radar has repeatedly aimed at the Japanese ships and planes, therefore, the media have speculated that China may "prepare for war" Diaoyu Islands .


According to friends broke the news: February 3, Nan'an, Fujian Highway 308, artillery units practical exercise for several days.


February 3 to 6, Fujian, Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Huzhou, a large troop movements, nearly 100 vehicles of various types of military vehicles, armored vehicles, artillery filled the entire road, endless, Xiamen and even the scene of a traffic jam 10 kilometers.


In addition, on February 3 in Shiyan, Hubei, a large number of tanks, wheeled military base from Shiyan room counties is delivered to the coastal areas. Many local residents of the tense situation of some concern.


Prior to this allegation, January 15 and 30, the Chinese navy guided missile frigate, twice the fire control radar lock frigates and ship-borne helicopters of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, is also considered to enter a combat state.


According to mainland media quoted the "People's Daily" front-page article claiming that China will not change in point of view on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands , and have to prepare to win the war.


The international media alleged that China has purchased from Russia 239 engine, used in the manufacture of the H-6K. Combat covering the Diaoyu Islands, in this model, the engine can also be used to manufacture transported -20 transport aircraft purchased.


If the engine assembled, will greatly enhance China's military power.


Integrated these signs and reports, people have come to a startling conclusion: Day might want to go to war.


According to military experts, the Sino-Japanese war in the Diaoyu Islands, Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, is the most important logistical base. If the war to expand, at any time, will spread to the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:22 | 3229863 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Note to Chinese Tank drivers when liberating those islands. Dont hit the turning brakes or your ass is getting wet.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:40 | 3229905 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Why would they need heavy tanks to invade tiny islands????? I think these islands belong to China based on the historical record. Why Japanese would invade mainland China in these two provinces???? It does not make sense from the military point of view but something bigger may be brewing.

I hope that USA stays completely out of any mess there. Enough of wars. If others want to kill each other, let them fight their wars.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:43 | 3229919 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

China could never win a modern war against a people so acclimated to radiation.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:10 | 3229977 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture




full disclosure: I am Japanese (American)...went to a nice Chinese restaurant last nite, and I am Year of the Snake.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:41 | 3230014 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Well then Happy new year, and I apologize in advance for my Connie Chung and Pearl Harbor comments further down the thread...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:48 | 3230033 AssFire
AssFire's picture

War does not determine who is right, war determine who is left.

Like farting in elevator, wrong on many levels.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 06:26 | 3230217 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

There will be no war between China and Japan because everyone knows that it can only escalate with unforeseen consequences once it begins.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:31 | 3230314 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"everyone" does not include lunatics or the money behind war. To them, it's very profitable.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:45 | 3230332 markmotive
markmotive's picture

If it is over resources then yes they will fight Japan.

China is already battling the West in a cold war for Africa's resources:

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:57 | 3230406 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

maybe the chinese want to encapsulate fukajima?  its still a hotspot on this globe.....i wouldn't want to live within 1000 miles of it

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:45 | 3230785 akarc
akarc's picture

Your point?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:45 | 3230884 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Just like WWII when Japan invaded China? It's day's like these when economy's collapse, politician's look to take people's minds off thier failings and want to become "the great war leaders". Death,death and misery await the World once again. Remember, only the victor gets to write the history books and enslave the people.

If i was Japan, i would announce they have turned nuclear like now.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 09:39 | 3239963 whirling tword ...
whirling tword freedom's picture

China can do what China wants to do.  All they have to do is pull the ambassador aside and say, "Stay the fuck out of it or we will dump your bonds."

The end.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:53 | 3230814 unrulian
unrulian's picture

"Fujian Highway 308,"

308 coincedence? i think not...i heard highway 76251 is very similar


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:00 | 3230824 11b40
11b40's picture

xin nián kuài lè.

fàng bian pào.    

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:14 | 3229983 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:04 | 3230041 ACP
ACP's picture

Fire ONE...ok, fire TWO...ok fire THREE!

What do you mean nothing is working? What? The guy who stole the technology from the US is living in the US now with the money he stole from quality control?

What??? Command says just drink some baijiu and press on? WE ARE FUCKED!!!


What is that Command, say again..?


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:53 | 3230795 Jake88
Jake88's picture

That's right. They've mutated to have super powers.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:50 | 3229939 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

They don't need heavy vehicles for tiny islands.  Taiwan on the other hand...

Head fake Japan, conquer Taiwan...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:09 | 3230067 dunce
dunce's picture

I thought Korea until i saw the map. Taiwan seems more likely as you observed still that seems silly too unless Taiwan is building a new weapon system now that obama has clearly abandoned them by giving F-16s to Egypt and refusing to sell them to Taiwan. Stupid economics and stupid foreign policy.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 05:32 | 3230205 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Taiwan, the disputed islands and some long overdue payback to Japan (if the Japanese insist).

First you get the money, then you get the power, then you get the (comfort) women.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:48 | 3230798 akarc
akarc's picture

Were I Tiawan I would something more than F-16's 

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:42 | 3230328 neptunium
neptunium's picture

One of the many reasons I don't take anything ZH "thinks" in geopolitical terms seriously is this sort of article. 


Mobilizing "NEARLY 100 VEHICLES!. 


This is the sort of sensationalist story that, were this blog not full of apocalypse-anticipating weirdos would be laughed at. 


IF China was mobilizing for war you would not see "Nearly 100 Vehicles of various types" You would see several thousand vehicles - major movements of air-power including transports, fighters, tankers, patrol aircraft, you would see tens-of-thousands of front-line troops and reservists being sent to the region from all over the mainland - you would see a huge build-up of naval assets - landing craft included and most of all you would expect PRC media outlets to start ratcheting up rhetoric to the point that it would be impossible to mistake their intentions. 


But don't expect such rudimentary analysis here, that this blog thinks "nearly 100 vehicles" is what to expect when the PRC really means business you need to seriously have a look at the PLA and PLAAF. 


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:02 | 3230350 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

For islands the size of your backyard 100 vehicles is the equivalent of D-Day.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 11:00 | 3230409 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

how many of that 100 vehicles are rickshaws?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 12:57 | 3230652 Matt
Matt's picture

Why create a panic or give a warning by moving all the vehicles at once? Just move 100 per day for 2 or 3 months. There is no rush.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 12:10 | 3230474 giggler123
giggler123's picture

Your here, so you must be included in the apocalypse-anticipating weirdos clause?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 22:11 | 3231935 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

This war would be almost entirely naval/airforce in nature.  The armor might be to control their own people should war actually break out (riots, ect if trade is disrupted).  It is common Chinese practice to pull in troops from other providences to put down local insurrections.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:14 | 3230700 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Yep. Those tanks are going to be no help anywhere but Formosa.  But they will never arrive.  How many exocet type missles do you figure a major maritime nation like Japan has?    This is going to make the last attempted Chinese invasion of Japanquo look like a big success.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:01 | 3229961 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

3 heavy tanks would cover the entire island; just you try to land your own tanks, fire and maneuver!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:23 | 3230001 Karlus
Karlus's picture

If you are still using tanks to fight a war, they you are not paying attention...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:39 | 3230103 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:30 | 3230385 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Currency war > trade wars > real wars? In this insane and egostistical world of greed and corruption real wars are what sperates the men from the boys, the cock and balls from the tiny pin dick. Currency warfare can only go so far before the real wars begin, people and nations become desperate; nations fall or nations conqeur. You just have to ask; how powerful are the supposed 'law makers' and 'servants of justice', 'beholders and granters of civil liberties' because in times of facism, communism and police state esq surroundings people don't get asked what to do; they get told what to do.   

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:09 | 3230068 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Those aren't tanks. They are mobile artillery.


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:00 | 3230348 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Lunch Wagons serving freedom fries...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:36 | 3230762 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

We will bring those Seaguls demockracy. They will like it, and they will beg for more.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:55 | 3230820 unrulian
unrulian's picture

and latkes

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:50 | 3230112 Ausbroker
Ausbroker's picture

This is not about Japan, its about Iran.
The Chinese are saying by their actions that if you (USA) takes Iran we will take some territory from you while you are busy

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:35 | 3230128 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"Why Japanese would invade mainland China in these two provinces???? It does not make sense from the military point of view but something bigger may be brewing.

I hope that USA stays completely out of any mess there."

Dear FinarCorrapse

I know China has a LOT of people, with a LOT of time to engage in many tasks of the state but could you be a little more subtle?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 04:50 | 3230188 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Zackly. Looks like Taiwan to me (unless these are underwater tanks to protect the gas fields

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 07:20 | 3230236 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

The US will stay out of this one because the other side can shoot back.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:26 | 3230380 Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

Like the LAPD...

But they might not have a choice either.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 12:24 | 3230514 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

if like LAPD usa will fire at malaysia

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:40 | 3230324 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The tanks are for more than the islands. If other countries jump int this, China will have to react. Viet Nam and China have been adversaries for 40 years. Viet Nam is allowing US warships to use their harbors for refueling and resupply, for instance.  There are many other countries in the region that do not appreciate China's stance as a bully.  China would like them to know who is boss, these tank practices are also muscle flexing for intimidation purposes.


There are 25 million more men in China than women. Think about it.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 12:23 | 3230511 dtwn
dtwn's picture

Not just men.  But young men.  Of fighting age.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:16 | 3230707 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Maybe China is working on burying their excess population at sea?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:59 | 3230826 akarc
akarc's picture

Who, while in a perpetual state of horny, have no problem signing up for plundering, pillaging and raping.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:23 | 3230731 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

There are 25 million more men in China than women. Think about it.

The hand-cream and tissue businesses will be booming.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:31 | 3230895 ebear
ebear's picture

"Think about it."

Oh I am, sugar.  I am!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:45 | 3230331 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

When in the last hundred years has the US stayed out of a good war?   C'mon...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:46 | 3230334 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Oh.  Happy Birthday Federal Reserve!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 15:27 | 3230994 yogibear
yogibear's picture

A Federal Reserve currency war leads to real war.

We can see the results of  a US Fed consulted Japan.

NIce job Fed, print us into war.




Sun, 02/10/2013 - 12:11 | 3230476 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

Obama won a Nobel Prize for Peace, Yet is acting like a violent war lord.

Watch for him to enter the fray.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:44 | 3230779 akarc
akarc's picture

And you believe ownership means anything?  And you think the USA isn't involved?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 07:18 | 3230235 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Yeah I think they will have a problem when the sea starts sloshing over the turrets of those tanks. How long can a Chinese tank driver hold his breath?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 11:41 | 3230446 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

Well there went the element of surprise.  If something was really going to happen, would they be broadcasting it over the news?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:01 | 3230832 akarc
akarc's picture

Why not? Like who would seriously be surprised?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:23 | 3229864 Legolas
Legolas's picture

Does the US really have to take sides in this one? 

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:35 | 3229898 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

I think the US is happy about this. They might even be partially responsible.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:39 | 3229906 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Krugman ordered it.

"takey outey"

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:52 | 3229945 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

And you thought broken windows boosted GDP...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:31 | 3229996 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture



Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:13 | 3230073 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

The US won't respond but there will be an excuse for a gigantic increase in defense related spending

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 15:38 | 3231019 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Lol! "Partially"

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 06:29 | 3230218 Suraj Corominas
Suraj Corominas's picture

Yes, they do have to take sides. Under the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, the US is bound to intervene if Japan is attacked. It's one of the longest-lasting security alliances in modern history, and the justification for having such a large military presence in Japan and Japan's (supposedly) not being able to possess a proper military of their own. I'm guessing it was supposed to be a lot more relevant in the Cold War days, but it's still very much an active treaty now.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 07:46 | 3230243 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ouch. you said that word. treaty

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:09 | 3230293 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 11:35 | 3230440 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

August, 1914

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:32 | 3230748 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

A treaty but open to "interpretation". The O administration backed by Holder legal opinion would interpret treaty obligation to Japan as:

U.S. using strong language to dis any Chinese aggression.

U.S. supplying Japan with surplus guns from Fast and Furious stockpile.

U.S./Japan gun exchange program: a bottle of sake in return for each gun mailed to Japan.

U.S. sending California rice (at a reasonable war time price) to Japan along with Michele's cookbook "100 Rice Recipes to Fight Obesity".


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:03 | 3230835 11b40
11b40's picture

I always find it amusing to see down arrows when someone states a fact.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:12 | 3230852 Bandit und Buster
Bandit und Buster's picture

Oh hell, That treaty's ONLY a G-D piece of paper!"

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 05:29 | 3232469 Andre
Andre's picture

"I have here, from Herr Hitler, a piece of paper!"

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:42 | 3230327 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Take sides? The US has already done so. Who do you think trains the Japanese army, navy, air force? The US still has air bases all over the region. There is no doubt whose side the US is on.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:14 | 3230855 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Right.  And all of those lobbyists in Washington who represent American economic interests in China (the same ones, BTW, who want the US to sell Japan more weapon systems) are going to let America back Japan in this dispute?  America has too many conflicts of interests in Asia to get involved.

American oil companies are ready to explore those waters but are simply waiting on the sovereignty issue to be resolved first.  They don't care whether China or Japan wins, they just don't want to commit resources until the winner is declared.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:23 | 3229865 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The Year of the Snake.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:30 | 3229885 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:27 | 3230129 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

in amerika, it's still the year of the Snack

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:33 | 3229893 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

The Year of the Snake Oil*


That's a Chinese specialty, right?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:39 | 3229908 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

The supreme snake oil salesman. Obama, is pretty good at it.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:02 | 3229965 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

His managers seem to think so.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:02 | 3230351 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

We're stuck on the 'Year of the one eyed snake'...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:02 | 3229989 Ag Tex
Ag Tex's picture

This has nothing to do with him.  He is merely a clay pot with a different coating of glaze applied by his master.  Everything is being orchestrated by a few people taking orders from the fallen cherub, Satan.  These individuals and their minions will be betrayed and discarded very soon by the master who they loyally serve, whom has given them earthly wealth and brief power.  Satan did not shed a tear for Judas, and he will not shed a tear for them either.


For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the powers, against the world forces of this darkness, against the spiritual forces of wickedness in the heavenly places.  Ephesians 6:12


and My people who are called by My name humble themselves and pray and seek My face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin and will heal their land.  2 Chronicles 7:14 


Jesus said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me.  John 14:6

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:27 | 3230091 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Relying on "an invisible man... who lives in the sky..." to "save" us isn't going to get rid of the evil that has infested our institutions.  We (humans) build the society in which we live.  We are both the problem and the solution.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:30 | 3230131 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Don't rule it out Terminus...

as the magnitude of Creation is beyond our comprehension, so too is the darkness of this world

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 04:03 | 3230148 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Holy BeJeebus Banana,

Everyone knows the Flying Spaghetti Monster created everything-

and I'm not even a Pastafarian. His son, Ramen died for our sins.


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 07:28 | 3230239 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

While it is stylish these days to discount religion, don't make the mistake over discounting the valid messages it delivers.

My favorite - Jesus tossed the money changers from the temple challenging the corruption of his time. Three days later he was hanging on a cross "for our sins".

Funny how that got turned around on us isn't it. Jesus challenges usury, and it is "our sin"? Me thinks the World is awaking!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 11:40 | 3230443 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The jews served him up to the Romans because he was cutting into their vig... Some things never change...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:09 | 3230848 akarc
akarc's picture

Hmmmm, what was that Occupy thing all about I wonder?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:33 | 3230097 JacktheTab
JacktheTab's picture

@Tex: Bullocks. 

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:41 | 3230137 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Bullocks are Ox. Bollocks is the word you're looking for.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 04:11 | 3230156 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Sandra's not an ox. 

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 06:14 | 3230212 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

...... but she has a nice bullox

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:06 | 3230357 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

2013:  Year Of The Snake-eyes.    :   ..

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:05 | 3230837 akarc
akarc's picture

It's a Fed, Banker, Congressional specialty year end year out. Wax on, wax off. 

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:23 | 3229866 rahbii
rahbii's picture

more like  China, Russia, Iran vs. USSA and some frenchies

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:45 | 3229928 mc_LDN
mc_LDN's picture

Just to add - That mobilisation doesnt look like Japan. It looks like the movement is closest to Taiwan.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:59 | 3229954 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Interesting.  In fact, it would be difficult and basically useless to land those tanks on the Senkaku/Daioyu Islands.  The war over that island will be an air/sea battle.  Of course, Air/Sea Battle just so happens to be Americas operational plans designed to contain China.  Funny, huh?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:16 | 3230077 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

Maybe they plan to build a bridge from an occupied Taiwan

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:01 | 3229962 easterner
easterner's picture

the "disputed islets" are directly facing the red area and at the northern tip of Taiwan.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:04 | 3229967 suteibu
suteibu's picture

A two-fer.  And boy won't the Japanese be pissed if the US jumps in to protect Taiwan after leaving Japan hanging out there as this thing has built up.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 07:27 | 3230238 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

If this goes nuclear Japan will have the advantage their troops are already irradiated to f***. You could say their troops are already acclimatised.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:25 | 3229871 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well China will be in real trouble soon enough...

IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits

China’s vast reserve of cheap workers in the hinterland is vanishing at a vertiginous pace.

We can now discern more or less when the catch-up growth miracle will sputter out. Another seven years or so - enough to bouy global coal, crude, and copper prices for a while - but then it will all be over. China’s demographic dividend will be exhausted.

Beijing revealed last week that the country’s working age population has already begun to shrink, sooner than expected. It will soon go into “precipitous decline”, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Japan hit this inflexion point fourteen years ago, but by then it was already rich, with $3 trillion of net savings overseas. China has hit the wall a quarter century earlier in its development path.

The ageing crisis is well-known. It is already six years since a Chinese demographer shocked Davos with a warning that his country might have to resort to mass suicide in the end, shoving pensioners onto the ice.

Less known is the parallel - and linked - labour drain in the countryside. A new IMF paper - “Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?” - says the reserve army of peasants looking for work peaked in 2010 at around 150 million. The numbers are now collapsing.

The surplus will disappear soon after 2020. A decade after that China will face a labour shortage of almost 140m workers, surely the greatest jobs crunch ever seen. “This will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world,” said the IMF.

There is little Beijing can do to head off the shock. The effects of low fertility rates - and the one child policy - are already baked into the pie. It would take half a century to turn around the demographic supertanker.

The Lewis Point, named after St Lucia’s Nobel economist Arthur Lewis, is when the supply of workers dries up and city wages soar. It is when labour turns the tables on capital, and profits crash.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:36 | 3229903 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture



After the bottleneck, the remainder will certainly have the chance at greater comfort (hard to find a word because neither 'wealth' nor 'prosperity' apply). There will be fewer claims against capital, some of it will be carried forward. There will also be plenty of work, demolishing the vast numbers of derelict concrete towers littering the landscape.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:43 | 3229920 bluprint
bluprint's picture

"IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in"


When that happens, you just start a war. Can't make new jobs? Eliminate the job hunters. Then there will be a long period of prosperity!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:01 | 3229959 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Or they could invade NKorea and take it over, that would make them 20 million new slaves.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:06 | 3230049 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Labor shortage??? -I think it is/will be exactly the opposite.  Production worldwide is moving toward automation, robotization, technological advance, driverless cars, trucks, production without hands...deflationary forces globally continuing to create fewer jobs as MBA's do their productivity mapping, streaming, ever higher productivity on all fronts.  Unemployment is just getting started.  Labors day of wage increases and power via shortage of labor is done.  There is a reason labors share of the pie is shrinking and will do so globally...debt serfs are more compliant if kept on edge...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 04:44 | 3230182 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

If there is higher productivity, there is higher consumption. So yeah, it tells the conclusion of the story, infinite growth, producing more than consuming and the rest.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:21 | 3230374 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I don't think that is necessarily the case. It could lead to higher consumption, but if you have a lot of people making next to nothing then how would consumption increase. So far higher productivity has gone to the global elites, who are the true benefactors of globalization.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:16 | 3230368 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Every time I hear the 'population's shrinking' meme, I just have to laugh.  Oh, sure, maybe the native demographic is aging, becoming less active or dieing.  But not to worry:  Third worlders MORE than make up the difference.  The world's population doubles what, about every 30 years? 


But the labor force is 'shrinking'?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 13:07 | 3230680 Matt
Matt's picture

Do you think China will allow a mass immigration of Arabs, Africans and Latinos to make up for the demographic shift? I bet no.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:51 | 3229943 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Does China have a Dream act?   Maybe they could annex Mexico?  

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:59 | 3229957 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Then MAYBE, just MAYBE the US would protect the border??

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 10:57 | 3230405 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Dear Leader won't allow the southern border to be protected. He needs more third worlders to further his goal of destroying and remaking the US.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:37 | 3230323 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You missed the point, they were to tired to sleep long enough to have a concrete dream.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:15 | 3230857 akarc
akarc's picture


My new word for the day.  Will try it out this afternoon at Biker Sunday.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:26 | 3229873 Hopium Dealer
Hopium Dealer's picture

Let them eat dog...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:01 | 3230119 Dane Bramage
Dane Bramage's picture

Mmmm, Hundeschinken.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:28 | 3229879 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

War makes everything OK again. See 1929 - 1933.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:29 | 3229881 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Let me fix that title again. China Is Mobilizing For A War With Japan On Fukushima Carbon Credit Trading Price?

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:30 | 3229884 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

One HUGE indicator that this is serious is that this is happening while the whole country is in holidays... it would be like the US doing full mobilization on December 24...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:30 | 3229886 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

My buddy's wife translated this whole thing for me. It says:

Nothing to see here, move along.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 06:15 | 3230213 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

Probably why you should never walk in their room when they are having sex.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:31 | 3229888 peter4805
peter4805's picture

Why all the tanks?...if I were in Taiwan I'd be a bit worried right about now.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:46 | 3230039 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Must be amphibeous tanks ;)

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:26 | 3230310 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

Giant infrateable tranks....

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 09:43 | 3230326 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:31 | 3229890 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture



So ... Japan which is already bankrupt ... will become more bankrupt.


China will burn more fuel fighting a stupid war as it would gain from the Senkaku region.


Like 2 children each with their hands caught in cookie jars, beating each other with the jars.

Har di-har har.



Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:59 | 3229955 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Well, the Central Committee read on ZH that Japan is ruled by aggressive rightists and so they think they're doing the world a favor.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:32 | 3229891 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

LOL, Asians driving. 50 car pile up, not one shot fired.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:41 | 3229916 Colonel Klink
Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:06 | 3229969 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Whomever I've offended, it's a joke.  Get a sense of humor!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:46 | 3230038 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture


Off to the FRont u go!  Lots o snow this winter.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:09 | 3230069 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'm assuming it's the Boston front you're referring to?  Another tea party?!?!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 03:34 | 3230133 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I thought it was funny, Coloner Krink.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:34 | 3230019 Jab Cross Hook
Jab Cross Hook's picture

They managed straight and orderly, but only using their tanks' and APC's view slits.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:35 | 3229899 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

War: What is it good for? Absorutery nothing.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:08 | 3229971 Bear
Bear's picture

With BHO we really don't have to worry about that

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 06:37 | 3230222 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Wars serve many good purposes including the display of stupidity at leadership level and heroism at a soldier level. Best of all however it sobers man up but only when it is too late.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 14:26 | 3230887 Bandit und Buster
Bandit und Buster's picture


Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:35 | 3229900 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Chinese worry the Year of the Snake may bite

When the Chinese-speaking world ushers in its new year on Sunday, its 12-year zodiac will turn from the dragon to one of the world's most despised animals.

As undeserved as the snake's reputation might be, its last two years did not go so well: 2001 was the year of the September 11 attacks and 1989 was when Chinese forces crushed pro-democracy protests around Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

Some wonder if this one also could hold bad tidings. "In Chinese mythology, snakes were often associated with monsters, or with incarnations of monsters, so some political turbulence can be expected," said Taiwanese astrologer Tsai Shang-chi.

This might be why they are doing this... they are expecting things to get out of control... well guess what, mobilizing your army might do just what you fear...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:36 | 3229901 lostcause
lostcause's picture

 When people run out of money they steal. When countries run out of money they go to war!

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:36 | 3229902 joego1
joego1's picture

Excuse me please point that some place else, I'm trying to drill for natural gas.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:40 | 3229904 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Might be a good time for the average Japanese to purchase a 1-way ticket to Hawaii, New Zealand, Australia, or similar (but not on a Dreamliner!).  War is seldom beneficial for the "average Joe."

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:41 | 3229915 mc_LDN
mc_LDN's picture

Please stay away. We dont want your wars.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 01:42 | 3230023 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Might be a good time for the average Japanese to purchase a 1-way ticket to Hawaii...

Yes, Japanese flying to Pearl Harbor just before a world war breaks out should work out well...

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 02:02 | 3230057 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture


Coming here (Honolulu) in almost record numbers...economy or not, it's an easy flight out for them to de-stress  with some blue sky, sunshine and of course our warm, cesium enriched waters....imo.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:40 | 3229909 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Maybe China will benefit from the newly enacted suspension of the 4th amendment of the Constitution within 100 miles of the border.

Oh wait, wrong story!  Sorry.  That's the USA.  Meh, it's all become the same difference now.

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 00:41 | 3229911 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!