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    05/06/2016 - 06:03
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Guest Post: Note To Fed: Giving The Banks Free Money Won't Make Us Hire More Workers

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Lowering interest rate and making credit abundant doesn't make employers hire more workers.

 
The Federal Reserve's policy of targeting unemployment is based on a curious faith that low interest rates and lots of liquidity sloshing around the bank system with magically lead employers to hire more workers. I say this is a curious faith because it makes no sense. In effect, the Fed policy is based on the implicit assumption that the only thing holding entrepreneurs and employers back from hiring is the cost and availability of credit.
 
But as anyone in the actual position of hiring more staff knows, it is not a lack of cheap credit that makes adding workers unattractive, it is the lack of opportunities to increase profit margins by adding more workers.
 
If the economic boom of the mid-1980s proves anything, it is that the cost of credit can be very high but that in itself does not restrain real growth. What restrains growth is not interest rates, it is opportunities to profitably expand operations.
 
What the Fed cannot dare admit is that in a crony-capitalist, globalized, State/cartel-dominated economy, there are few profitable opportunities, regardless of the cost of credit. Yes, there is a natural-gas boom in the Dakotas, but outside of energy plays the harsh reality is that the only way for most businesses to increase profits is reduce labor, not hire more workers.
 
The second survival tactic is to lower labor costs by recycling full-time, full benefits jobs into part-time or lower-paid jobs. Rather than pay insanely high healthcare premiums on full-time jobs, businesses lay off full-benefit workers and replace them with a mix of part-time workers who receive no benefits or contract workers who handle their own healthcare costs.
 
There is another way to recycle jobs to reduce costs: fire a $90,000/year employee and hire someone for $60,000 to do the same job. Mish has shown that virtually all the gain in employment since the start of the "recovery" is in the 55+ age group: Startling Look at Job Demographics by Age (Mish)
 
 
Older workers often complain that they have been replaced with "cheaper" younger workers who will work for less, but the real trend to is to hire higher-productivity workers for less pay. In most cases, as revealed by the above chart, the older workers are higher productivity for a number of self-evident reasons: they won't take maternity leave, they know their work well and have proven a work ethic that younger workers may not have had the opportunity to prove.
 
It is difficult to transition to a new career or get a job as an inexperienced worker for the reason that employers want someone who can be productive on Day One. Sadly, it is too costly and risky to take chances with on-the-job training or mentoring; it is lower-risk to find someone who can do the work immediately.
 
Older workers' healthcare insurance costs are skyhigh, but the solution is to hire older workers as consultants and push the costs of healthcare onto them. In many cases, older workers are covered by a spouse's insurance, so they can afford to take a job that offers no benefits.
 
The other trend the Fed cannot dare recognize is that cheap credit enables employers to reduce labor by investing in automation and software. If opportunities are scarce (and they are), or if the business is hanging on by a thread, then hiring more employees is the last thing an employer would do to boost productivity: the solution is reduce headcount and invest in tools that make the remaining employees more productive.
 
We can see this reality in the following charts: full-time employment has returned to levels reached 13 years ago, but median wages are lower, reflecting the "recycling" described above.
 
 
Meanwhile, labor's share of the non-farm private economy has fallen off a cliff, along with money velocity, which measures the relative activity of cash and credit:
 
 
So exactly what mechanism is the Fed trying to boost with super-low interest rates and massive liquidity (free money) in the banking sector? Answer: push businesses into high-risk ventures.
 

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans: “The investment climate seems to be one where people are increasingly understanding that very low interest rates on super safe assets are going to be around for a while. And if they’re worried by that they need to take on more risk - and taking on that more risk will help get the economy growing.”

In other words, the Fed's policy is to push for more mal-investment. There is no other way to describe the flow of money into risky, marginal ventures.
 
Note to Fed: there is too much of everything. Too many restaurants, too many apps, too many empty dwellings (19 million at last count), too many malls, too many nail salons. There is too much junk for sale everywhere, from retail outlets to online to jumble/garage sales. The developed world is awash in overcapacity in every sector other than a relative handful of special equipment/services (deep-ocean drilling rigs, etc.)
 
Pushing businesses to borrow money to gamble in risky ventures is precisely what happened in Japan in the late 1980s. With interest rates low and credit in abundance, bank reps went around to enterprises small and large begging them to borrow money for essentially any reason.
 
The net result: massive bubbles across asset classes and an overhang of debt that remains 20+ years later, as unpayable now as it was in 1992. That is the result of pushing enterprises into risk-on bets: bubbles and collapses.
 
What those with access to the Fed's free money--big banks and hedge funds--are doing with the zero-cost credit is invest in rentier skimming operations: buying 5,000 single family homes, buying $1 billion in apartments and homes to rent out, etc.
 
 

“It’s hard to find a private-equity firm on the planet that doesn’t have a strategy in this space,” Gary Beasley, chief executive officer at Waypoint Homes, said last week at the American Securitization Forum’s annual conference in Las Vegas. The Oakland, California-based company has bought homes in California, Arizona, Illinois and Georgia.

How many jobs are created by rentier skimming? Very few. Get the houses painted, hire a few handypeople to take care of maintenance and a few people to handle the property management.
 
The other way to make money with nearly-free credit is to chase risk-on assets, for example stocks. Why would any hedge fund or bank trading desk with easy access to the Fed's free money bother taking risks in the real economy which is burdened with massive over-capacity and sclerotic State-mandated cartels (healthcare, defense, etc.) when the easy money is in chasing assets higher?
 
How many jobs are created by chasing assets higher? Maybe the Fed thinks that high-end Manhattan restaurants will add staff to handle the influx of new money skimmed from the stock and bond markets, but if they think rentier/speculative skimming is going to add millions of jobs to the economy, they are delusional.
 

Perhaps if any of the Fed governors had ever operated a real business in the real economy, the board might have a somewhat better grasp on reality.

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Mon, 02/11/2013 - 02:36 | 3232386 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

How can an economy that is 73% supported by consumption expand? Just because there is cheap money ? The cheap money can only be borrowed by the people that don't need it (corporations). I said before, that the regular "Non-steerable" economy expanding inflation from the fractional lending system, has been suspended (why there is no job creation and DC never speaks about it anymore) All while they print up trillions of "Steerable" inflation directed to save the institutions that the money changers of the world store their generational wealth in (banks balance sheets). Because if you combined those two money inflation schemes, at the same time, the dollar or any other fiat currency would die within weeks. The generational wealth of the world is in the form of leveraged credit derivatives. If any of the balance sheets fail or deflate into insolvency the game is over............................ then the real printing of fiat to honor the leveraged bets will begin, ushering us into hyperinflation.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 02:46 | 3232395 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Short rates are already at zero. They could set long rates and eliminate IOR, but they won't because they are targeting the stock market and they don't want real inflation, respectively. The Fed can do nothing about ObamaCare or other regulatory burdens. The Fed's only tool left is to buy Treasury and Agency debt.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 04:15 | 3232446 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yeah, but the Maserati dealer will get a sweet fucking commission which translates to hookers and blow and THAT is boosting GDP!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:41 | 3233055 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

We're going to need to ask you to keep buying a Maserati per week until about 2030.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 07:25 | 3232519 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It's interesting how the Fed, with all their expertise, applies tactics to inflate that result in deflation.

 

Unless of course the Fed really wants deflation.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 07:36 | 3232525 Melody7773
Melody7773's picture

I see only way of employers hiring more workers: if their businesses will be booming. I think many will agree with me. Everything else is just a bad attempt to make us forget about unemployment. But I doubt that this is possible. One thing that pops up in my head is US National Debt Clock which makes me think that we are soon to see some worse numbers. You know, this is a very weird way of getting rid of the unemployment rate they are choosing. Funding would have been a better option. We need jobs to pay off rent, mortgages, online no fax payday loans, student loans and, finally, credit cards!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 07:36 | 3232526 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

Wow, a 1200 word article on the subject of monetary stimulus and the mechanism of interest rates influencing the economy and not a single solitary mention of the word ‘demand’.

 

Nobody at the Federal Reserve believes HR policies are based on interest rates. Interest rates drive consumer demand, demand creates the opportunity for corporate growth.

 

The idea of lowering interest rates is that it increases the credit limit of regular consumers it increases their gearing, their credit card limits rise when credit is cheap and freely available.

 

Except this time, the low rates are not making it through to consumers and are not making it through to small businesses because guess what??

 

THE BANKS AREN’T LENDING THE MONEY OUT.

 

All the new money in the system is not being delivered to consumers to spark demand, the new money is not leaving the banks. It’s pouring into off balance sheet black holes to cover shadowy losses as financial institutions scramble to sweep away their insolvent secrets.

 

Until the shadow banking system stabilises it’s precipitous deleveraging process, the REAL ECONOMY will struggle along in fits and starts as consumer demand remains anaemic.

 

Even corporations are stockpiling huge mountains of money because there is NO DEMAND being generated in the real economy. The system is leaking into the void of the deleveraging shadow banking system.

 

But the deleveraging of the shadow banking system is finite. And when it finally stabilises, it will sooner or later even if it goes to zero.

 

Then the new credit (from monetary easing) will start to trickle through to the real economy and demand will come back.

 

 

The problem is the collapse of the shadow banking system which continues to suck the lifeblood out of the real economy. Just wait patiently for the shadow banking system to reach zero (or wherever it stabilises) and then we will start to see new demand and falling unemployment figures.

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:32 | 3234929 Thisson
Thisson's picture

You don't seem to comprehend what the word "demand" symbolizes.  It implies having something to exchange for the good or service demanded.  Unemployed people do not have this.  Increasing their credit limit will not help, because it has the cost of increasing their debt service requirements, which are already maxxed out in the face of declining real wages and increasing costs for necessities.

The only solution to our problem is to lower the cost structure of our economy.  This can be done by restructure debt, bringing down debt service costs.  Allowing housing prices to decline (increasing affordability).  Decreasing taxes, reducing burdensome regulation, while at the same time increasing accountability and cracking down on financial crimes.  These things allow people to live off lower wages, allow them to accept jobs that pay less, lower the cost of employing people for job creators, and most importantly, place into the hands of consumers something to exchange so that they can properly "Demand" goods and services.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 08:06 | 3232577 Racer
Racer's picture

The Fed isn't interested in the slightest about jobs, it is just a facade, smoke and mirrors, to hide the real reason...

To rob from the 99% to give to the 1% ad infinitum

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 09:05 | 3232692 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I have no debt. But, every day I try to think of ways I could make money if I could borrow from the Fed at zero interest like the big banks do. So far, all I’ve come up with is starting a financial newsletter bitching about the Feds easy money policies.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:45 | 3233066 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You should try bundling fraudulent real-estate investment vehicles and naked shorting.

 

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