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Art Cashin Rolls His 'Snake' Eyes At The Bull Market

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As most of Asia is on vacation for the lunar new year, UBS' Art Cashin is growing more and more concerned with the excessively bullish tone. While not screaming for an outright short, the venerable volatility-handler fears many factors he sees in the market currently from sentiment to vauation, and a lack of 'rotation', and while the January Effect and the Super-Bowl are in the bulls favor, he gently reminds that the 'Year of the Snake' has typically not been a good one for markets or man...

 

Via Art Cashin,

Will The January Effect Get Swallowed By The Snake? – The ever-alert Jim Brown, over at Option Investor, notes that the year of the snake is historically the least bullish of the twelve signs in the Asian zodiac. The prior snake (2001) saw a loss of 13.1% after losing 28% at one point. In the snake before that (1989), the S&P did manage a gain of 9.7%, while 1977 saw a loss of 17.5%.

 

Rick Weissman of Gleacher and Company cited the rather spotty event record for past years of the snake. We saw things like 9/11 (2001), the attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) and the stock market crash (1929).

 

Super Bowl and January are on the bull's side, while the snake threatens on behalf of the bears.

 


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Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

Another boot on the neck of VIX futures going onto Wednesday's expiration....Cashin has yet to acknowledge to devious actions the FED will take in order to keep the Ponzi afloat.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:05 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Never short a bubble....just sayin.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

My balls being handed to me pretty much tipped me off...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

The snake represents transformation. Patiently waiting...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

2013 ~ Year of the one eyed snake...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:52 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

You and me both Nid.

DavidC

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Long XIV vs. my SPY puts is the only reason I ended the year only down 10%.  

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Agreed, I'm nominal bullish, and real bearish!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 13:29 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Today's volume is D.O.A.  I don't remember a day this low in quite some time.

Tomorrow night the bullshitter-in-chief does his rose colored glasses parade charade, and it may be that the Fed is holding the market together in order to better align with his planned lies about the economy.

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well, the bull seems to be on in Japan...

“Japan’s economic minister wants Nikkei to surge 17% to 13,000 by March”

“We want to continue taking (new) steps to help stock prices rise” further, Amari stressed, referring to the core policies of the Liberal Democratic Party administration — the promotion of bold monetary easing, fiscal spending and greater private sector investment.”

You can only do that a la Weimar and Zimbabwe.

This is either a bozo babbling. .or it is “Checkmate”.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/10/business/japans-economic-minister-wants-nikkei-to-surge-17-to-13000-by-march/#.URjkaqXILZc



Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Yeah.....let's 'legislate' a higher Nikkei......that'll end well.

 

(What is that?  The BOTTOM of the Rabbit Hole?)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Au/Ag = anti-venom.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

Snake oil salesman.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HEY!!!! WHERE'S THE SNAKE?!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The last 'year of the snake' in 2001 gave us 9/11.

Hedge accordingly, slaves.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Just do what is contrary to common sense, and you'll do fine.

 

Put all your money on the Don't Pass line.  Snake-eyes!  Winner!

 

(BTW:  in Australia it's 'SNIKE'-'I's)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

chinese zodiac, goat entrails, tea leaves, whatever

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

His issue is the same one many other long time traders are experiencing - what is happening now does not match up with historical trading patterns.  This throws you off your game.  This type of behavior has happened in the past - look to the last 6 months of 2007.  Despite tons of bearish/bad news the market just kept powering higher.  Through Nov of that year shorting for any decent gains was tough - until the music stopped.

There is very little rotation now because there is no fear or uncertainty.  GDP dipping does nothing.  If you think there is a floor and the fed has your back there is no need to ever sell.  Selling is a perception that something is expensive now that might get cheap later (as in I sell high and buy low).  If there is no "buy low" anymore then you cannot sell because you will be forced to buy higher.

Of course this logic is total crap but that is what these guys get paid the big bucks to come up with.  When it all falls apart they can just blame "the market" for their crap performance vs being a moron sheep lazy ass idiot investor.

 

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

+1 Excellent point

On every King World News  interview to date Uncle Art has dished out like a broken record  the fairy story of no inflation in spite of Uncle Ben's helicopter "because the 100$  bills are being stashed away in the garages and not being used out of fear" - what total bullshit, how can someone be so naive after "half a century in the markets". Senility strikes.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Jeez, bears are really getting desperate for anything to pitch to people. I cant believe we've sunk down to the equivalent of Astrology...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Baaaa byyyyyy Snaaaaa kes

late at night is when they come out

I think you know what I'm talking about

(Frank Zappa)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

While everyone seems to be focused on Stocks and bonds, everything is priced in Fiat. That is the real story. That is the real disaster. It's not even a black swan it's out there for everyone to see.

Hey Art, what does your snake augur concerning that? Are you a shill or a moron?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Excessively bullish?  Hmmmm.  SP500 is up 6 weeks in a row as government debts soar, GDP shrinks and earnings RATE continue to decline.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-sixth-week-row/

 

And today's top looks very similar in price form to that of 2007.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

I could make a comment about how relevant past peformance is....

But, WTF the snake in the picture is swallowing a baby's leg!

 

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

I know!
I wanted another larger pic of that snake. I'm building a portfolio of ZH emoto-pics...you know, the ones that make your eyes bug out for a second.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

I was born in the year of the snake.. bitchez

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Me too, and I'm getting even.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

Is zodiac trading part of the new normal too?  things are starting to make sense Bernanke with a wizard hat and crystal ball in a seance with geithner and company

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Yes, Mars ascending is in conjunction with Uranus.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 13:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The one eyed snake is conjuncting Uranus...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 15:14 | Link to Comment jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

We saw things like 9/11 (2001), the attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) and the stock market crash (1929) and the list goes in and on every twelve years.

Finally you get it, it is the most negative pull vs. the dragon which was the most positive. The patterns are all there just research you don't have to be Chinese or read placemats at lunch to notice.

Have everything done well in advance is the score these days.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

Here is my Astro prognmosis:Snake wil bite us from side no one of us expect,Bernanke will be ill and ....illness will catch all people involved in pumping process,if not,they should die from overprint :)
!

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