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Art Cashin Rolls His 'Snake' Eyes At The Bull Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As most of Asia is on vacation for the lunar new year, UBS' Art Cashin is growing more and more concerned with the excessively bullish tone. While not screaming for an outright short, the venerable volatility-handler fears many factors he sees in the market currently from sentiment to vauation, and a lack of 'rotation', and while the January Effect and the Super-Bowl are in the bulls favor, he gently reminds that the 'Year of the Snake' has typically not been a good one for markets or man...

 

Via Art Cashin,

Will The January Effect Get Swallowed By The Snake? – The ever-alert Jim Brown, over at Option Investor, notes that the year of the snake is historically the least bullish of the twelve signs in the Asian zodiac. The prior snake (2001) saw a loss of 13.1% after losing 28% at one point. In the snake before that (1989), the S&P did manage a gain of 9.7%, while 1977 saw a loss of 17.5%.

 

Rick Weissman of Gleacher and Company cited the rather spotty event record for past years of the snake. We saw things like 9/11 (2001), the attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) and the stock market crash (1929).

 

Super Bowl and January are on the bull's side, while the snake threatens on behalf of the bears.

 

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Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:01 | 3233142 Nid
Nid's picture

Another boot on the neck of VIX futures going onto Wednesday's expiration....Cashin has yet to acknowledge to devious actions the FED will take in order to keep the Ponzi afloat.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:05 | 3233173 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Never short a bubble....just sayin.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:09 | 3233187 Nid
Nid's picture

My balls being handed to me pretty much tipped me off...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:42 | 3233350 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

The snake represents transformation. Patiently waiting...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:49 | 3233380 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

2013 ~ Year of the one eyed snake...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:52 | 3233398 DavidC
DavidC's picture

You and me both Nid.

DavidC

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 15:25 | 3234254 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Long XIV vs. my SPY puts is the only reason I ended the year only down 10%.  

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:12 | 3233201 redpill
redpill's picture

Agreed, I'm nominal bullish, and real bearish!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 13:29 | 3233801 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Today's volume is D.O.A.  I don't remember a day this low in quite some time.

Tomorrow night the bullshitter-in-chief does his rose colored glasses parade charade, and it may be that the Fed is holding the market together in order to better align with his planned lies about the economy.

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:59 | 3233144 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well, the bull seems to be on in Japan...

“Japan’s economic minister wants Nikkei to surge 17% to 13,000 by March”

“We want to continue taking (new) steps to help stock prices rise” further, Amari stressed, referring to the core policies of the Liberal Democratic Party administration — the promotion of bold monetary easing, fiscal spending and greater private sector investment.”

You can only do that a la Weimar and Zimbabwe.

This is either a bozo babbling. .or it is “Checkmate”.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/10/business/japans-economic-minister-wants-nikkei-to-surge-17-to-13000-by-march/#.URjkaqXILZc



Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:21 | 3233238 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Yeah.....let's 'legislate' a higher Nikkei......that'll end well.

 

(What is that?  The BOTTOM of the Rabbit Hole?)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:01 | 3233155 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Au/Ag = anti-venom.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:02 | 3233165 Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

Snake oil salesman.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:03 | 3233167 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

HEY!!!! WHERE'S THE SNAKE?!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:07 | 3233182 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The last 'year of the snake' in 2001 gave us 9/11.

Hedge accordingly, slaves.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:23 | 3233217 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Just do what is contrary to common sense, and you'll do fine.

 

Put all your money on the Don't Pass line.  Snake-eyes!  Winner!

 

(BTW:  in Australia it's 'SNIKE'-'I's)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:21 | 3233242 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

chinese zodiac, goat entrails, tea leaves, whatever

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:24 | 3233250 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

His issue is the same one many other long time traders are experiencing - what is happening now does not match up with historical trading patterns.  This throws you off your game.  This type of behavior has happened in the past - look to the last 6 months of 2007.  Despite tons of bearish/bad news the market just kept powering higher.  Through Nov of that year shorting for any decent gains was tough - until the music stopped.

There is very little rotation now because there is no fear or uncertainty.  GDP dipping does nothing.  If you think there is a floor and the fed has your back there is no need to ever sell.  Selling is a perception that something is expensive now that might get cheap later (as in I sell high and buy low).  If there is no "buy low" anymore then you cannot sell because you will be forced to buy higher.

Of course this logic is total crap but that is what these guys get paid the big bucks to come up with.  When it all falls apart they can just blame "the market" for their crap performance vs being a moron sheep lazy ass idiot investor.

 

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:54 | 3233416 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

+1 Excellent point

On every King World News  interview to date Uncle Art has dished out like a broken record  the fairy story of no inflation in spite of Uncle Ben's helicopter "because the 100$  bills are being stashed away in the garages and not being used out of fear" - what total bullshit, how can someone be so naive after "half a century in the markets". Senility strikes.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:38 | 3233323 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Jeez, bears are really getting desperate for anything to pitch to people. I cant believe we've sunk down to the equivalent of Astrology...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:42 | 3233352 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Baaaa byyyyyy Snaaaaa kes

late at night is when they come out

I think you know what I'm talking about

(Frank Zappa)

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:44 | 3233361 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

While everyone seems to be focused on Stocks and bonds, everything is priced in Fiat. That is the real story. That is the real disaster. It's not even a black swan it's out there for everyone to see.

Hey Art, what does your snake augur concerning that? Are you a shill or a moron?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:51 | 3233393 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Excessively bullish?  Hmmmm.  SP500 is up 6 weeks in a row as government debts soar, GDP shrinks and earnings RATE continue to decline.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-sixth-week-row/

 

And today's top looks very similar in price form to that of 2007.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:53 | 3233407 forwardho
forwardho's picture

I could make a comment about how relevant past peformance is....

But, WTF the snake in the picture is swallowing a baby's leg!

 

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:48 | 3233661 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

I know!
I wanted another larger pic of that snake. I'm building a portfolio of ZH emoto-pics...you know, the ones that make your eyes bug out for a second.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:08 | 3233486 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I was born in the year of the snake.. bitchez

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:17 | 3233533 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Me too, and I'm getting even.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:24 | 3233574 larz
larz's picture

Is zodiac trading part of the new normal too?  things are starting to make sense Bernanke with a wizard hat and crystal ball in a seance with geithner and company

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:57 | 3233689 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Yes, Mars ascending is in conjunction with Uranus.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 13:38 | 3233834 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The one eyed snake is conjuncting Uranus...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 15:14 | 3234214 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

We saw things like 9/11 (2001), the attack on Pearl Harbor (1941) and the stock market crash (1929) and the list goes in and on every twelve years.

Finally you get it, it is the most negative pull vs. the dragon which was the most positive. The patterns are all there just research you don't have to be Chinese or read placemats at lunch to notice.

Have everything done well in advance is the score these days.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 16:45 | 3234599 trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

Here is my Astro prognmosis:Snake wil bite us from side no one of us expect,Bernanke will be ill and ....illness will catch all people involved in pumping process,if not,they should die from overprint :)
!

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