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Lowest Volume And Range Day In Months As Stocks Shrug Despite JPY Dump And Oil Pump

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today was simply dreadful. S&P 500 futures saw their narrowest day-session range in six months and lowest day-session volume of the year. No matter what was tried today - vol compression, EURJPY (carry) ramps, Oil stop-run - equities did not respond with any algo-driven exuberance. Stocks ended the day practically unchanged even as AAPL did its best to hold them up - filling its post-earnings gap and fading. Five things dominated the day: Gold and Silver were slammed lower early on; ECB's Weidmann slammed EUR higher early on; Oil prices surged above $97 (WTI); and then France's Moscivici spoke and retraced all the EUR's gains; and then a 3pmET rampathon in JPY. For the bulls, this is healthy stabilization; For the bears, this is a day where normal risk drivers had no impact and stocks never followed through on new highs. Credit remains pensive as renewed rises in oil prices will crimp margins (and the consumer's pocket) but none of that matters as JPY crosses remain in play.

Today's day-session range (middle pane) was the lowest in six months... Today's day-session volume (lower pane) was the lowest of the year...

 

But what was different today - aside from the total lack of participation - was the fact that risk-assets (as proxied by Capital Context's CONTEXT model) were not tracked higher by stocks... this is something we have not seen for weeks. Typically since this rally began, we have seen any risk-asset fade bought up to equities; today something shifted...

 

It appears the final result today is Germany 1 : 1 France as Weidmann's impact was negated by Moscovicis's response... but what is very evident is the 3pmET inverse rampathon on JPY as it dumped...(and no response from stocks)...

 

It remains unclear what the catalyst for precious metals to plunge about 830ET - though Gold clung to $1650 by the close. WTI surged over $97 by the close - but stocks did not ghet excited as they normally do...

 

And all of this happens to have started on November 14th - when Noda dissolved Japan's parliament...

 

Lots of noise today - but stocks and bonds tended to stay close together (in a narrow range) with Oil surging and Gold down and the USD unamused...

 

Very odd day - stocks (for once) really not playing along... even as VIX closed below 13%.

Today had the sense of some epic towels being thrown in - between the precious metals dump pre-market, Oil surge, and then late-day JPY implosion - these are not natural moves!!

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL filled its gap from earnings but saw a very large average trade size (and low volume) - this suggest strongly to us that this was bigger blocks exiting as opposed to reloading longs...


 


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Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Narrow Range days are one of the best candle patterns there are.

Also, I like the way the first chart shows the New Moon & Full Moon days.  Now I know when its safe to go out at night!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

YEN is of the charts

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Perhaps you could draw a YEN Diagram.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Perfect set up for the tuesday blast off on no news.  Fake money vs. reality has thus far produced 3 years of success for the sheeple

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

but of course.  its closed up for 6 weeks straight, but today we had a correction of 0.92 points.  BTFD.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The stock market gets pumped up and the gold market gets hammered so that

the big dollar boys can unload their stocks at a profit and buy cheap gold to protect

their wealth from the coming fiat collapse.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Is there a name for this arbitrage play?

How about; "The Bernank Transfer Wealth Arb Play?"

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

Waiting for Barry's speech tomorrow night then all hell will break loose.

I don't know about anyone else but I take exception to the fact that he's giving his address on Lincoln's birthday.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

why? lincoln that pyschopathic killer of bothers ,destroyed the republic. barry er obuma er also knowna as , wet dream is a repeat.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 07:39 | Link to Comment FreedomCostsaBu...
FreedomCostsaBuck-o-Five's picture

Obamas gonna speak?! I KNEW there was magic in the air this morning! We may be in a turd circus but as long as he speaks all is well.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:32 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Michelle, Lincoln's birthday is a perfect time for the speech. Lincoln was responsible for the

death of over 1,000,000 Americans by declaring war on them. It was not a civil war, it was

a government war on it's own people who did not agree with the government. The South

wanted to peacefully secede from a union whose leaders had overstepped their charter (constitution)

Lincoln denied them the right to do so and sent troops to attack them. Lincoln caused more death

and suffering of Americans than any foreign enemy had ever done before or since, including WW2.

It appears that Obama, Through his policies of class warfare, is on tract to pass Lincoln in causing

suffering for Americans. I just hope that history doesn't make a hero out of him too.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

+1

What will history call him when he declares himself king? A hero or a traitor?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

I do not watch shit TV or Hollywood as they support all of this.  The media and Hollywood keep talking Lincoln.  It is an inside joke as Lincoln declared war on Americans and murdered millions for nothing. 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Done paying attention day to day insofar as equities are concerned but not currencies. If margin is being obliterated (it is odd that margin rates are coming down for gold and silver...but so is price) then that does not bode well for Mr. Speculator going forward. If oil cracks I look for real estate to follow. We'll see how equities can hold up then. "that's a lot of pricing power" and will all this hot money sloshing around somebody could very easily get burned.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:12 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

lol with the Fed backstopping the EUR, you can't go wrong.

Asia (holiday) mad bought USDs, capped equities on thin volumes.  HFTs just support ranges, but no new long position.  Oil is bid on geopolitical/safe haven hedge, Gold is oversold.  Japan/China skirmish is on the cards in 2013, one of the first central bank induced wars.

Could we have a market top in a now 100% euphoric market?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Things were too quiet
Something had to break
Just what changed and why?

The problem with getting all the sheeple excited about " economic recovery" is that you have to have the cheap oil to back it up.

Now if for example a large oil producer had knowledge of an impending production decline, along with increasing forward orders, and if they also had large paper gold positions.

What would be a profitable trade for them?

Hmmm let me think...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

No animal spirits today. Chemtrails and flouride have taken its toll on traders' testosterone levels.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 18:57 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Pure, unadulterated trading Hell, today was.  Absolutely NOTHING happens for 5 hours, save a few low volume acts of algo chicanery, then the Russell does it's typical 3:00 fuck-the-shorts ramp.  

Without question, we're looking at a 5% down day in the RUT soon, likely in Feb, but of course the machines will take most of that in the overnight and pre-market, then execute a cynical mini-squeeze from 10:30 - 1:00 before tipping it over into a sudden, single-candle tank before everyone gets back from lunch.  Shitheads.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 19:29 | Link to Comment cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

Where's CPL? Oh, I'll just go ahead:

Bullish!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Several momentum indicators, such as Bullish Percent Point and Figure Charts, and SPX stocks above their 50 day moving average ($BPSPX and $SPXA50R, stockcharts.com) show that the current rally still has a few months of legs left.  These indicators tend to top out somewhere in the middle to late part of the rallies.  The values of these two today are 82 and 85 respectively, just off of the highs set a week or two ago.  About a third of the time, the market peaks right along with these indicators, but 2/3 of the time, the peak is up to 6 months later.  Shorts, bet not thy whole wad.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 20:56 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

all markets around the globe are fucking jokes.\

 

however, as big of a joke as the  u.s markets are, which are a very big joke, as are the european markets, nothing compares to the asian markets.

 

japan and china make ours and europes markets look somewhat normal.

 

someone in japan came out earlier today and said they want the nikkei to be at 13000 by fucking march ( a 17 percent jump from where it is currently). that alone has brought the nikkei up 2 and a half percent early.

 

it is such a fucking joke, keep printing assholes and keep manipulating data china u fucking communists fucks.

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