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Weak Jobs Report? Blame It On Snow In The Winter

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As we said a week ago in "Scapegoating Nemo", it was only a matter of time before Wall Street's heroic band of permabullish lemmings used a snow storm in the middle of, gasp, winter, as a "valid" excuse to justify why an economy priced to central planning-perfection may deviate slightly from a path that has missed every major upside inflection point in the past four years (but... but, there is always a reason... if only for the Fed to print). And appropriately enough, the first such excuse comes from none other than Groundhog Phil's nemesis Joe LaVorgna who just cut his Non-farm payroll forecast to 125K due to "inclement winter weather." Truly odd how there is never an exogenous reason for "better than expected" data. Ever. Next, and as always, rain in the spring will be blamed for a Durable Goods plunge in April, sun and balmy warm weather in the summer will be the cause of a collapse in retail spending in July, and finally, a gust of wind in the fall will lead to a double dip depression.

From Lavorgna:

Commentary for Monday: This is the survey week for February nonfarm payroll employment so we are concerned the next batch of jobs data could be adversely affected by inclement winter weather. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the number of people who could not report to work because of bad weather—we have dubbed this series “weather workers”, and the top five months for weather workers are the following: January 1996 (1846k), January 1977 (1100k), January 1982 (1079k), February 2010 (1031k) and January 1978 (843k). Using initially reported nonfarm payroll figures, the average reading for these five months is +2k, although the economy was in recession in January 1982 when payrolls were down -231k. If we exclude this observation, then the average gain is 62k, better but still obviously very weak. In light of the possibility that February nonfarm payrolls are adversely distorted by weather, we are estimating only a +125k increase, down from a trailing three-month moving average of +200k. However, if jobless claims trend lower during the employment survey week and other measures of employment such as the ISM and ADP surveys show further improvement, then we will obviously adjust our forecast accordingly. Moreover, the level of January employment is likely to be revised higher, as this has occurred in four out of the last five years. Incidentally, the survey for the unemployment rate is conducted one week later, so there should not be a noticeable impact on the rate, which we expect to edge down one-tenth to 7.8%.

 


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Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

There are no bad news, just good news weighed down by bad circumstances.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

It's got to be "bullish" somehow, look at the USD on a tear.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Can someone please inform Krugman to adjust his numbers cuz both my shovels broke and my snowblower stalled several times needing a tune up i bet.  I hate having to piss away money on things i don't like or need but the PHD from Princeton tells me this is good for me so i'm gonna take my medicine like a good sheep and spend spend spend.

PS my shoulders and lower back are also soar so i better go to the Chiro and MD to get some adjustments and meds to help boost GDP.  I'm just doing my part

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

He'll probably tell you to smash all of your windows while you're at it.

It's good for you!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

And STOP using NBC's (Weather Channel) names for storms.  These are based on characters of NBC/Universal movies or other memes they would like to promote.  There is NO government body sanctioned for naming winter storms.

When a blizzard named "The Voice" hits the NE, will you belive me?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:02 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

never noticed, next storm Optimus Prime?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

What fuking snow?  It was raining in New Yawk this am on GMA.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:13 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

yep espirit, saw a newcast from Laguardia during "Nemo" and was like, "WTF?, there's no snow there"

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

Agreed, but 'Nemo' is actually a Disney/ABC property. 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

which is wierd.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 00:16 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Guess Jules Verne's copyright didn't extend to Captain Nemo...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I always wonder if these asshats like LaVorgna realize how stupid they sound

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Every time a gerbil farts, I subtract 1,000 from my NFP estimate and 10 basis points from next Q GDP...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

IT'S BECAUSE THE SNOW IS WHITE!!!! OBAMA SAID SO!!!

RACIST SNOWFLAKES BE DAMNED!!!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:47 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

that's why new york snow is a mixed color 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you weather channel and al roker.  fucking economy killing fuckers.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

LongSoupLine,
You're on a roll today!

DavidC

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Comcast's stable of prostitutes

 

-NBC

-CNBC

-Weather Channel

-MSNBC

-Weather Underground

 

From their cable to your home 24x7 propaganda

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's almost as if....the government "allowing" all the media to be held by a small handful is somehow...bad for democracy 

probably why the founders put the first amendment last

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

A resort town in the north of Belgium is exploring the possibility of suing the private weather service Meteo Belgique due to forecasting bad weather in the month of August.

http://www.dotwnews.com/focus/weather-service-sued-for-bad-forecast

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 00:18 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, first Vulcanology, now Meterology...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Isn't this what seasonal adjustment is for?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

FAIL!!! That sort of logic is going to get you reeducated.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's Bush's fault that it snows in the winter... [Global warming is his fault too]...

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Senior or the 60 year old Junior?

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

Well rumor is Senior was in on the JF Kennedy kill, at least covered it later, so that saved us Americans from stupid silver certificates. Imagine those big silver dollars clanking in your heavy pocket they'd have forced on you. Imagine that!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

A Bush involved in something unscrupulous?

Never! And I stand by Prescott's grave as I say this.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

prey yahweh... i do hope you relieve'd yourself there-- if not, a totally wasted 'bm`visit'

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

that's funny, I just watched JFK last night.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Just looked at my fiat silver certificates last night, and they're worth less than what I paid for them.

I say, bring em back.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Bush's fault? Don't get me started on what is all Bush's fault from the perspective of a foreigner like me

sheesh, partisanship is ok, but please, have one second of honesty from time to time

or perhaps you should explain why Bush had any qualities, for you

except for not being a democrat, that is

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

You only get to chose from George III relative in America. That's why things are geared to fail. Somebody told the inbreed phycos they were special. They're not they're just euro.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In Belgium, februari industrial output will be bad because to many people are taking a week off...

In Holland, industrial.... whatever they make over there... will be down due to carnaval...

In France, they don't need a excuse and that's why industrial output will also be down...

And in Spain, industrial output will be down because nobody ever explained them what industrial means...

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Oh Sandy!  When will we ever be free from your superstorm clutches.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Funny you should mention Sandy. I heard a report just before the recent storm that some 2500 homes were still without power from Sandy.  That's when I did one of those 3 Stooges "spraying my drink out of my mouth" moments.  WHAT!?  They still don't have the power back on everywhere from Sandy?!?

I didn't know.  I mean I honestly didn't have a clue that power hadn't been fully restored 3 MONTHS later.

Bush's fault.  Definitely Bush's fault.  Not the ex-President, the guy who makes those awesome Baked Beans (that I have many cans stacked up in my basement).  Gotta be his fault.  If not him, then it sure as hell has to be somebody's fault.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

caution... discard any recent purchase of 'Dinty Moore' [hybred mule`rabbit?]!

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:51 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

blame it on the snowjob

and the blowjob

snowjob + blowjob =  no job

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

fuck these assholes.

 

the storm did not do any damage to the NYC metro area, the only areas that got it bad was the new england area, which does not contain the majority of the population, not to mention the storm hit on a weekend,

 

they always make excuses and its sickening.

 

do these fuckers realize there was a time in which we had strong job growth, and a stable economy, and it actually rained, snowed, hailed, iced, there were tropical systems all during that time to.

 

the weather has no fucking effect douchebags on wall st, there is always going to be weather, stop making excuses and look at the real problems, its not the weather

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

F**** global warming: I thought you were supposed to get heat stroke not frostbite.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Stop using the term "glabal warming".  That's old and out of fashion.  Only the uneducated and conservatives still call it that.

It is called 'Man-Caused Climate Change' now.

That way it doesn't matter if it gets hotter or colder, it's still all our fault.  See how that works?

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:17 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

"Extremes" is more apt to fit the socioeconomic climate. 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

A few snowflakes paralyzes the entire New England area? What if we had a real disaster?  After the Trillions the gubbermint spent on "protection" the last decade and this is the result?

 

I want my money back.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Sach Mahoney
Sach Mahoney's picture

Bernanke and the Gov't print 2.5 Trillion dollars per year to pump into this phoney economy just to keep on life support....and bequeath more debt to each of us.  WE STILL HAVE 24mm Americans OUT OF WORK and 20% ON FOOD STAMPS. DOA 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

How is this possible!? http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2013/02/10/identity-thief-box-office/1906229/

'Identity Thief' storms box office despite blizzard
Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

If you're a central planner or one of its accomplices you have to believe that bad results are almost always a result of bad luck. Otherwise you may indulge in some self-criticism, which, God forbid, may actually open the door to examining the unintended consequences of your actions.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:15 | Link to Comment TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

what difference does it make with any number they print when we all know the real unemployment rate would be closer to 20%?

 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment occupant
occupant's picture

The National Weather Service does not name winter storms.  This is a Weather Channel creation.  Now you have a name to go with your weather induced paranoia.  

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i cant wait this douchebag president tommorow during his state of the union blames the slow economy on sandy and the most recent snowstorm.

 

fuck u obama

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

He'll blame congress, then he'll blame Bush, He'll Blame Sandy Bush, He'll Blame Bushy Snow, He'll Blame The Bush's dog, He'll Blame Jenna Bush, Some other Bush and then His fat ass wife will give the American Flag the Finger.

We are living in the Twilight Zone.

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Bad shit.. 30 inches on long island. 

Mon, 02/11/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Funny how of two of the 4 most significant storms in New England since the arrival of Europeans 400 years ago have occured in the past 4 months...

The only comparable snowstorm to Nemo was the Great Blizzard of 1888....

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html

BTW, check the satellite shot of NEMO, goddam thing has an eye...

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