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G-7 Officially Kicks Off The Currency Wars By Denying All Currency Wars

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With the world so obviously gripped in currency war even the hotdog guy has moved away from saying how technically undervalued AAPL stock is to opining on who is leading the global race to debase, it was only a matter of time before the G-7 confirmed the only strategy left is FX devaluation by denying it. Sure enough, a preliminary statement from the G-7 came earlier, in which the leading "developed" nations said, well, absolutely nothing:

We, the G7 Ministers and Governors, reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets. We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates. We are agreed that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will continue to consult closely on exchange markets and cooperate as appropriate.

This follows a statement by the US Treasury's Lael Branaird yesterday in which she said that she is supportive of the effort in Japan to end deflation and “reinvigorate growth”. Lastly, the SNB's Jordan also confirmed that the Swiss National Bank will continue to do everything to crush its own currency, and will the 1.20 EURCHF floor, stating that Japan is merely doing the right thing to stimulate growth (i.e., doing what "we" are doing).  In other words, let the FX wars continue and may the biggest balance sheet win, all the while everyone pretends nothing is happening.

Sure enough, the EUR took this statement as overriding French concerns on EURUSD strength, and promptly spiked by nearly 100 pips, in the process hurting all European exports but hitting Germany the least and everyone else more, as the true currency war toll of beggaring thine neighbors continues.

Expect nothing to change until i) the price of Brent/WTI surges high enough to where the Brent Vigilantes as defined previously stop the global devaluation party dead in its tracks, or ii) spring finally comes in China, and brings with it gobs of hot money, and soaring food and property prices, and a repeat of the spring of 2011 which, too, saw a rehearsal of the global currency war, which however was promptly ended when the PBOC cleared its throat.

Otherwise it has been a quiet session, with most still digesting the water cooler fallout from the North Korean nuclear test and the resignation of the Pope, and little in the form of macro data, which means FX crosses, and thus central bank balance sheets, will once again define risk levels and market conditions.

A summary of events to keep an eye on from SocGen:

The currency war will remain a key theme today after a salvo of comments from US and Japanese officials overnight kicked off a fresh rally in USD/JPY, though the UST/JGB 2y rate spread is tagging along (23bp). ECB President Draghi has successfully dampened the EUR's ascent since last Thursday, and ECB colleague Weidmann's comments yesterday failed to make gains stick overnight above 1.3400.

Today's meeting between EU's Juncker and French President Hollande in Paris will be all the more important ahead of the G20 meeting taking place at the end of the week. The currency war is clearly opened: the Japanese have successfully weakened the yen which is poised for being on the defensive for long even as net speculative JPY positions have stabilised over the past week. As for EUR/USD, the situation is less clear. The US authorities have no interest in a higher USD, while the Europeans have given conflicting messages regarding the euro of late, as they were clearly concerned by the speed of the EUR's strength in January. However, they may be reassured by this week's price action: is it just a question of volatility or a matter of levels? Mr Hollande may reiterate his own point of view today for the eurozone to have its own exchange rate policy.

The economic calendar will be very light today. However, the Spanish and Italian auctions will be worth watching amidst a fragile political climate and as Mr Draghi is visiting Madrid.

* * *

An exhaustive summary of the past 24 hours via DB's Jim Reid

In an otherwise quiet start to the week for newsflow and economic data, perhaps the most interesting developments in the past 24 hours have been in Japan where the Nikkei is up 2.2% overnight. The latest positive catalyst has come from comments from the US Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, Lael Branaird. Although Branaird warned that “the G-20 needs to deliver on the commitment to move to market-determined exchange rates and refrain from competitive devaluation”, she said that she is supportive of the effort in Japan to end deflation and “reinvigorate growth”. Markets appear to have interpreted Branaird’s comments to mean there will be no US Treasury interference if there is further yen depreciation. Indeed, USDJPY added more than 1% on the headline and is currently trading at 94.00, or close to three-year highs. The Nikkei is also playing catch-up after being closed yesterday when Asia Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda, a candidate for the next BoJ governor, commented that he thinks further monetary stimulus is justified in 2013 and after the economy minister said that he would like to see the Nikkei at 13,000 by the end of March. If only it was always as easy as picking a number for the market to gravitate towards!

Outside of Japan, there have been no shortage of headlines in the Asian session despite much of the region remaining closed for Lunar New Year holidays. South Korean media reported that a magnitude 5.1 “artificial earthquake” was detected across the border in North Korea which the South Korean Defence Ministry later confirmed to be from a North Korean nuclear test (Yonhap News). Both the Japanese and South Korean governments have convened their own National Security Council meetings in response to the incident and the South Korean military has reportedly raised its state of alertness. The market response has been relatively muted however with the KOSPI (-0.15%) seeing some weakness and the Won paring initial losses after a South Korean official said that the US and China were given forewarning on today’s nuclear test (Yonhap).

Turning to Europe and if the region’s leadership uncertainties weren’t already confusing, we had the surprise news that Pope Benedict XVI had decided to step down yesterday, in the process becoming the first sitting Pope to resign in 600 years. That aside, much of the recent macro headlines have centred on the chatter around the euro’s valuation, which is sure to get further airtime at the G20 meetings later this week. The euro finished with a 0.31% gain against the dollar yesterday after late-day comments from Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann who argued that the euro is not significantly overvalued despite its recent appreciation, echoing similar comments from the Luxembourg and Austrian finance ministers.

Weidmann added that an exchange-rate policy to specifically weaken the euro “would lead to higher inflation in the end". He also called for politicians to "hold on to the established division of labour", commenting that politically-induced depreciations "don't normally lead to a sustained increase in competitiveness" In the US, the S&P500 managed to climb back from the early lows to finish with a small loss for the day (-0.06%). Volumes were on the light side, probably hampered by commuting difficulties experienced by some New Yorkers following the weekend’s snowstorms in the US Northeast. The US wasn't alone as I spent the whole day yesterday at Geneva airport after numerous flight cancellations after heavy snow. For the record, yesterday’s S&P500 volumes were the lowest since the day after Xmas last year and the lowest volumes for a Monday since Xmas eve.

Helping sentiment towards the close were comments from Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen who said the Fed may hold rates near zero even if unemployment and inflation hit its near-term policy targets.

Yellen said those targets are "thresholds for possible action, not triggers that will necessarily prompt an immediate increase" in the FOMC's target rate. "When one of these thresholds is crossed, action is possible but not assured," she said, perhaps hinting that the Fed does not intend to back away from continued purchases in the near-term. In other market moves, 10yr UST yields added 1.4bp yesterday to close at 1.963% while gold finished down 1.15%.

In other news, Bloomberg reported that banks in the EU may need to comply with liquidity coverage rules sooner than in other parts of the globe. Ireland, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, is pressing for an agreement to have the rule take full effect on Jan. 1st 2018, a year ahead of a deadline set just last month by global central bank chiefs, according to a document cited by Bloomberg which was drawn up by the Irish government on Feb. 8th. On the topic of Ireland, S&P revised the country’s BBB+ rating outlook to stable following the government’s decision to exchange promissory notes provided to IBRC for longer term Irish government bonds. S&P says that the move will reduce the government's funding requirements and funding costs, and increases the likelihood of a full return by Ireland to private financing at the end of 2013. Finally, the Eurogroup’s Dijsselbloem described the Greek program as “on track” with the next tranche of bailout payments likely to be made later this month.

Looking at today’s calendar, Eurozone finance ministers will be convening again in Brussels. The official agenda today includes preparatory discussions for the upcoming G20 meetings and an update on the implementation of a single supervisory mechanism for banks. The UK will publish the RICS house price survey and we'll see CPI for January. In the US, President Obama will deliver his annual State of the Union address in the evening. Ahead of that, the NFIB small business survey is due and we may get the MBA’s mortgage foreclosure and delinquency data for Q4.

 


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Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:20 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let the official denials commence.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:25 | Link to Comment MrX
MrX's picture

they denied the parking wars too, and then that tv show came out:

http://youtu.be/aXGt2XOeCJc

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

not only is there no currency war, but we have also upgraded our recommendation on lehmanBroz from "hold" to "buy with both fists"

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:37 | Link to Comment edb5s
edb5s's picture

"[...]reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates[...]"

 

LOL.  "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:38 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

 

 

We, the G7 Ministers and Governors, reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets.

 

 

This reminds me of the bacon and eggs breakfast story.

When asked if I was committed or just involved with my job, I couldn't help thinking about it. Now I know the hen that layed the eggs was involved, but the hog that provided the bacon, well, he was committed. So I says to him, "I rather just be involved".

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

The Swiss Central bankers aren't denying anything. They're buying stocks and are damned proud of it apparently. Let the games continue......

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:26 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

If the economic data is skewed why would the oil data be different, especially in view of the emerging narrative about US production exceeding KSA and RUssia (NG). 

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international...

 

Makes you think twice about the those IEA exhortations about the skyrocketing US production followed by the trade data filling the gap

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No way dude.  We will totally be self sufficient in oil, all of a sudden, just when we need to be most.  No one is lying.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Melson Nandela
Melson Nandela's picture

You stole my line..if you want confirmation, just wait for an official denial!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is a currency "police action".

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:13 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

The fact it fucking has to be denied, is clear fucking proof it's happening.

 

Fuck you G-7 fucksticks.  All of you fuck off and step in front of a fucking bus assholes.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:15 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

When pretty much anything distributed for public consumption is a lie or half-truth, the only real news ( MSM-wise ) will be the first time the truth is told. And we'll all be scrambling to interpret this event, is it reverse pyschology, did someone break from the herd, did someone misspeak, OMG could this finally be endgame?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:17 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

I wonder if an FX Swap is a "domestic instrument"

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Devalue fiat to incentivise equity purchases as a hedge against inflation, sucking in money on the sidelines and destroying all of the rest who fail to join in. Sounds  like a perfect plan to me. Running up equity valuations helps those who are already in to get out, but still, what is the fiat worth at the end of the day? They ultimately must use their cash to buy real assets, while the rest of the sheep leverage their assets to get in on the ramp. The reason this plays out time and again is because people never change. And a little "conditioning" never hurts either.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:23 | Link to Comment It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

First rule of Currency War...You dont talk about Currency Wars

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Fear Not!

Doc, Grumpy, Happy, Sleepy, Bashful, Sneezy, and Dopey will save the day!

Silver For The People

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

" ... reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates ..."

Sure, the exchange rate is determined by the market that you manipulate every f'ing day.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Atlas Crapped
Atlas Crapped's picture

As QBAMCO rightly notes, they will carefully rotate exchange rate fluctuations in an orderly fashion so as to maintain CONfidence ... in their ability to sustain the current international monetary and financial system.

CONfidence to buy precious TIME ... TIME to move mountains of physical gold AT A TRICKLE using the public fishbowl venue at managed paper gold prices, in exhange for dollar reserves.

You cannot move tons at today's interbank premium, and certainly not publicly.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:42 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Fuckers.

Whos suprised then?  The only thing these fuck ups are good at is lying badly.

Its time we tore these cunts a new arsehole.

Pricks

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:43 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

They don't need to manipulate currency if each nation crapifies their respective export goods without corresponding quality-driven price decreases.  This whiskey costs $20/liter, but if you can't charge $25 to meet costs (bearing in mind that higher costs = higher prices = more fiat = more credit required at all payout points in the supply chain = interest = more printing), and your price is politically fixed at $20/liter, you can certainly charge $20/liter for a reduced-proof liquor of lesser quality.

This statement to my eyes is a frank admission that we are in a trade war as products crossing borders are now of dubious quality thus rendering trade across borders a dubious affair.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I will translate.."The danger is great and it is time to centralize all fx decisions and control into the hands of a few old european white men."

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

That worked well for my Great Grand Pappy in the trenches of WW1.  God rest his soul.  Never did find the body.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Sounds like they swore off selling gold to me.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Shevva
Shevva's picture

Get it to play tic-tac-toe and the world will be safe again. What it ain't that easy, we'll at least they know what their doing.

I'm going long umbrellas with all the bull shit flying around.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I know you know that I am lying to you, but, you still have to believe it because I say so.

That’s modern power baby, and money flows to power (Especially the power to print money).

 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 08:56 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

At some point as the world economy goes to shit and no one can sell any cars or afford gas they'll have to play a game of Survivor Island and evict someone, maybe using China to wipe out Japan and as an award  give them Taiwan but where I previously thought that could never happen recent actions over the last few years by all parties leads me to think not only can it happen but it must at some point..  someone has to go for the sake of GM, F and China exports.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 09:03 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I would call that a race to the bottom.

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment fancyfree
fancyfree's picture

Don't worry about the Treasury Department dissembling.  These currency skirmishes are "noise" surrounding a demand from the EU and other allies to the US: why not try tackling state capture?  In 1961 Eisenhower warned about the military-industrial complex:

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.  We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together. 

Who needs Treasury?  Fortunately, the 50 States are on board and addressing the problem alongside an alert and knowledgeable citizenry.  How did this happen without press coverage?  The internet!  Stay tuned. 

 

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