Oil Pops, Apple Drops, And Stocks Take Out More Stops

Tyler Durden's picture

Another low volume, low range, low average trade size day in stocks as recent high (stops) were run again with FX markets ruling the day in terms of volatility. The G-7's initial statement fell on deaf ears , after Draghi's early comments (on a higher EUR implying a stable Europe) pushed the USD lower against EUR, then the restatement rallied JPY and that USD weakness provided further support for US equities. New highs in the S&P (though not in the Nasdaq as AAPL slumped 2.5% because Tim Cook didn't unload all his cash into shareholders high beta pockets). Homebuilders saw their biggest gain in almost 8 months before pulling back a little in the afternoon. Oil prices continue to rise and Treasury yields bled higher (though 10Y remained below 2.00%). Gold and silver limped higher (along with the USD) after Europe's close. Credit markets (CDX) jumped tighter today (especially IG) after dislocating for the last few days - and HYG outperformed - as we suspect the credit-equity arb has become too tempting. Will SOTU be a catalyst for a pullback - VIX sure didn't think so as it dropped 0.3 vols to 12.6 - its lowest close in 3 weeks.


S&P 500 futures popped another set of stops and ran out of buyers - with volume (lower pane) drastically below average...


as the two-month trend continues...


Credit and equity recoupled in the short-term - though remain notably dislocated from the start of the year - as we noticed a number of sell-side shops pumping the long credit, short stocks trade looking for the convergence...


FX markets were large and in charge today in driving risk support - JPY rallied (solid green arrow) on the restatement of the G-7 note and EUR rallied (dotted green) on Draghi's 'Stabiliteeee' comments...


and commdoties all drifted higher (along with the USD oddly) in the afternoon - as Oil remains the leader...


AAPL was the biggest heartbreaker in stocks today - losing over 2.5%... as we warned yesterday the gap-fill, volume, and average trade size sent a darker message than crossing the chasm yesterday...


Homebuilders (and financials) had a great high-beta pumpathon day... Today was practically the biggest open to high day for builders in 12 months and close to close was the biggest jump in six months... why? what changed? stop run? come on....


as Builders are the winners post-Fiscal Cliff (and Tech the wreck)...


In general, risk-assets (mostly FX and Oil driven) were highly correlated to stocks today. Capital Context's ETF model saw HYG leading the way (as we noted above), but CONTEXT (the broader risk model) ended the day highly correlated (which is often a systemic indication of a lack of stock-specific flow) and well synced with stocks...


So Sequester On - BTFD; Currency Wars On/Off - BTFD; No News - BTFD in Builders; No News - STFR In Apple... and credit remains far less sanguine medium-term...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context


Bonus Chart: Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker notes that idiosyncratic risk is considerably higher than in recent years (relative to systemic risk) - upper chart below - even as it feelslike the stock market rises inexorably - stock-selection has been a dramatic outperformer (exemplified anecdotally in the Capital Context long-short portfolio - lower chart - this year). Parker's note (and confirmed by Capital Context) is to remain market-neutral as the return of systemic risk is high...

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Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Guys, let's please have a moment of silence for the guy who played "Asshole #3" on Storage Wars...

Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Afternoon News Update & Threadjacking


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NYC Mayor Bloomberg OK's Tuesday Night "Controlled Fireball Explosion" In NYC; Filming TV Show


Owe Back Taxes, We Suspend Your Drivers License; NY Governor Cuomo





Say What Again's picture

I think the second chart (ES Intra-Day) actually illustrates a THREE month trend, but who's counting?  As long as the Bernank keeps printing, the trend will continue. "The Ben is your friend."

adr's picture

You made me check to see if it was Barry. I sat next to Barry on a plane. Realy nice guy, the show is 90% fake just like all the other "reality" shows. I watched a couple shows, more real than CNBC which is 100% fake.

I was told they open and inspect all the lockers before the show to make sure there aren't drugs or dead bodies inside. A lot of the good stuff are actually plants. Things that were found by the show's producers and placed in with the garbage. The bidding is bullshit. Nobody would really spend $10k on a 100sq ft locker with an old mattress.

Half the abandoned lockers are meth labs or apartments for illegals. They never make it on the show for some reason. It would make it a lot more entertaining.

Whiteshadowmovement's picture

lol, Im sure everyone agrees Barrys the most likeable character on the show... Ive only caught episodes here and there but I always laughed when they happened to find absurd treasures in the middle of butt-fuck nowhere and there always happens to be at least 1 magic locker per auction. The sad thing is Ive often seen "storage locker auctions" come up as the most googled search results so my sympathies go out to all the idiots trying to duplicate the results of the show. Must be a nice gig for Barry though, hell be a quasi-celebrity for life and tell stories on airplanes for the rest of his life: "Hey you're Barry from storage wars!" and he'll say "somebody has to be"

Freddie's picture

i want to bid on a meth lab.   Supposedly they are nasty business with the chemicals and a fire hazard,

clara-to-market's picture

I've got your oil, Apple, and stocks.

I've got them hanging between my legs.



Renewable Life's picture

Who cares about apple stock and oil, when we can watch "Police Gone Wild" LA Edition Live!!!!

They have there fucking guns drawn 50 miles away and are searching every car coming down that mountain! Closing freeways at rush hour, they dont give a fuck!  Its really pretty funny, watching all these fat and jacked up , union cops, running around like idiots with automatic weapons, trying to remember what their training said about this shit 15 years ago! Then you stop laughing, because its sooo fucking obvious, this is the future of America, nothing beats training, like the real fucking thing! 

I'm going to stop referring to "the militarization of the police" in future tense, and call it like it is, they ARE fucking militarized NOW!

SilverTree's picture

Bonus chart, Bitchez?!?

rsnoble's picture

No today was not a low volume day.  Today was an INSANELY LOW VOLUME DAY.  The type that could possibly signal mass destruction straight ahead.  I know that seem impossible from all that's happend and I couldn't agree more.  We'll see.

SilverTree's picture


ebworthen's picture

Those home builders are being played like the nickle Triple 7's (777) slots on Senior's night.

Careless Whisper's picture

Indeed. TOL LEN PHM have gotten bubilicious, but I'm not about to short them.

Cdad's picture

Classic price volatility indicative of the end of a trend.  They are all priced for stupid, and not one day goes by without some firm pumping them in search of chumps.

Best shorts out there.


Freddie's picture

Give us some tickers.  I need to make up for what granny lost on the slots. 

Careless Whisper's picture

I'm watching BBRY and DNKN. I like the long side, but not at these levels.

Freddie's picture

Thanks.  Granny needs new shoes.

adr's picture

All you had to say was:

Today made no sense in the sense that no day ever makes sense anymore, so BTFD until you can't BTFD because there is no dip to buy because what didn't make sense somehow made sense and there is nobody left to buy from.

yogibear's picture

Gasoline prices are already at 3.99/gal. 

Goldman's target is $150/barrel by summer. An easy target.

GolfHatesMe's picture

someone has to help the Endowment returns.  Non reportable oil futures contracts, giddyup

disabledvet's picture

Hmmmm. Be interesting to see what "Mr. Double Dip" has to say about that...

Tsar Pointless's picture

It's all so very...oh, I don't know...pointless, is it not?

Mercury's picture
Oil Pops, Apple Drops, And Stocks Take Out More Stops


Still more practice young Tyler. Then wise in the ways of headline writing one day you will be:


ebworthen's picture

If you cross Han Solo you get a blaster in the gut.

And Han did shoot Greedo first, as he should have.

George Lucas just lost his mind somewhere in the late 80's.


EclecticParrot's picture

Looks like the stops being run are low to moderate sized, easily picked off, like shooting at wedgewood knick-knacks atop a fireplace mantle with a high-grade slingshot.  Can probably continue for many weeks, no?  

No one knows the future, but I suspect there'll be a big 200 point down day that'll entice larger shorts, with stops a bit higher than the typical "all-time-high-plus-.0001%" we're seeing.  If so, perhaps their frantic covering when the stealth bomber algos jump back in will lead to the proverbial "blow off top" before a bigger plunge.  Alternatively, as the year's been so strange, I could see us slowly leaking, like a birthday balloon, back to unchanged by May, with 60 pts the biggest Dow down day.  This puppy seems more unpredictable than ever.

Freddie's picture

Slowly leaking like Pelosi diaper?

adr's picture

I heard Bawrny Fwank pays her $100 for each one when she's done.

hannah's picture

more like barney fff-franks asshole .....

EclecticParrot's picture

I'm surprised that so many fourth graders are interested in the stock market.  Encouraging, no?

Freddie's picture

Hey Mr. Parrot - I give you up arrows cause I like your posts.  But what is with the comma, no?  Are you French, no?

Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

Ahhhhh, nothin like an old fashioned currency war to get gold & silver going.... oh wait, this planet is occupied by fucktards who think Warren Buffett earned his money.

orangegeek's picture

Dow Jones hourly moving sideways - consolidation should finish followed by another pop.




The markets get pushed up and the media pumps how rosy things are - doesn't get any more "top" than this.  Big ugly to follow.

trendybull459's picture


What to expect in future for changing current model into more cruel one,you will understand why for now going weapon confiscation

They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

Meanwhile - abused, ridiculed, and shorted non stop - Gold still standing like a champ at $1650....


You Fedsters and Banksters crack me up.....