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Sentiment More Bullish Than 99% Of All Prior Readings

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Movements in equity prices are driven by many factors, such as the economy, government policy, earnings, interest rates and valuation. But we think tactical moves (<3 months) are often better explained by sentiment, positioning and technicals. While macro, policy and valuations matter, sentiment has worked well in recent years as a contrarian tool to identify short-term inflection points in asset prices. According to BofAML's new Bull & Bear Index investor sentiment toward risk assets is at a more bullish level today than 99% of all readings since 2002. The current reading of 9.6 (out of 10) is close to max bullish and thus triggers a contrarian "sell" signal for risk assets. In their view, the relative risk-reward of owning equities is unfavorable at this juncture. Since 2002 a "sell" signal of 8.0+ was on average followed by a 12% peak-to-trough correction in global equities within three months.

Via BofAML,

We believe risk is the permanent impairment of capital and that reducing risk when sentiment is bullish is fundamental to effective risk management.

The current level is extreme by any measure...

 

with a very clear divergence between sentiment and economic data...

Chart 4 below shows periods (grey bars) when B&B was in EXTREME BULL territory (8.0 or above). During these periods, we believe risk should have been taken off the table.

The red lines in the chart show the maximum drawdowns for global equities that occurred within three months. The drawdown, defined as the peak-to-trough decline in MSCI ACWI within three months of a “sell” signal, would have been 12%. The forgone upside, defined as the upside return from the initial trigger to the subsequent market peak, would have been 3.0%...

 

Components

1. Flows: investor risk appetite as indicated by flows to EM equity funds, EM debt funds and high-yield bond funds

2. Positioning: investor risk exposure as measured by long-only fund manager cash levels, equity vs bond allocation, cyclical vs defensive sector allocation and futures positioning across fixed income, commodities, FX and equities

3. Price action: market technicals as implied by global equity market breadth and relative performance of global credit markets to US treasuries

 

Source: BofAML

 

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Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:49 | 3238588 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

SPX retard levels could last a few months i feel, so ye "within three months" sounds about right

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:53 | 3238614 rahbii
rahbii's picture

Up to FED pumping and pulling...ie fucking

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:51 | 3239140 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Even if the economy does start improving it will only drive oil prices up to the point that we slow down again. We've entered a new boom bust cycle and most don't realize it.

The next 40 years won't be as easy as the past 40.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/02/12/nate-hagens-things-are-not-goin...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 04:56 | 3239717 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

We're not yet at 100% Bullish, so there is plenty of room to run

Buy, Buy, and then Buy some moar!!!!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 02:40 | 3239663 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

We did not have Ben in 2002. Markets cannot go down...can they?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 05:39 | 3239748 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NOP! I'M PRETTY SURE THIS ERECTION WILL LAST FOREVER!!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 03:05 | 3239674 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I really like Tyler/Tylers but he/she still thinks there is a real stock market.  It is O/The Bernank's casino not a real market.  It is beecoming a real Dorner.   The "market" has gone full retard like the LA PD.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:49 | 3238599 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

But it's still not the most bullish it's ever been.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:03 | 3238645 CH1
CH1's picture

Which means we should be bullish!!!!

Right?

Seriously, this stopped being a market a long time ago. It's a rigged casino, and it can keep going up for a long time if Bennie's bosses tell him to keep printing and injecting.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:07 | 3238668 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

thats the spirit!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:48 | 3238815 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

It's a dick tease market.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:14 | 3238682 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

All "historical " data is bullshit at this point, its apples and oranges, there has never been this warped of a centrally planned attack on the market, as what Bernanke has waged this time, nothing even close!

As the dollar collapses, the stock market could go to 25,000, but as the dollar goes, so goes the society! Inflation will outpace even the stock market and the required social spending payoff needed to sedate 200 million+ people, will become unsustainable, its already unsustainable! They now this, its why they have to round up the guns, track every person wikth a gun or ammo or with any means to survive outside the system, and stock up on guns, ammo, and equipment themselves (which they are doing)! 

Not to mention, considering this entire stock market run has been on government funded QE and not organic growth, how bad will the loses be, when this bitch falls THIS time!!! There wont be a bailout big enough to calm shit this time!!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:15 | 3238688 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

can't you see I am trying to eat my steak over here?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:55 | 3238840 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!!!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:51 | 3238604 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

money managment advice 101: sell more risk premium in a pomo primed/QE forever market to readers that despise all centrally planned activities such as manipulated markets that are chomping at the bit to short such outlandish and self serving policy tools

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:51 | 3238605 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Maybe they're right this time. 

After all, free money can do wonders!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:52 | 3238609 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

We are going to break through new highs and keep climbing. That is when it gets fun. Once we hit uncharted territories they will march out the dow 20k club avery half hour. They will pound the table that shorts better cover because they could possibly suffer unimaginable losses. How far can they push the psychology this time? Will people scramble to throw some money on the table or regret missing the greatest stock market run in history? They are going all in with it this time.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:57 | 3238626 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Looks like the final consolidation eh? Speaking of which, I see the Destroyer in Chief is going to label his work on the economy as "an unfinished task" (wink wink) during his 'what's left to ruin in the State of this Union' speech.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:08 | 3238641 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

He is going to pause during his speech and rip a loud fart that will sound like "keystone pipeline" and that will be good for 20 ES points tomorrow.

I put a 2% probability that I just got junked by the pres himself.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:37 | 3238763 Being Free
Being Free's picture

+1 Fonz ... fuck the president.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:54 | 3238617 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Didn't one of the Rothschilds say: "Sell when the trumpets are playing and sell when there's blood in the streets."?

Bought some DOG at 14000. 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 20:55 | 3238622 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

Haha maybe that was a Freudian slip.  

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:02 | 3238648 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

"The current reading of 9.6 (out of 10) is close to max bullish and thus triggers a contrarian "sell" signal for risk assets.'

I'm no bull when it comes to playing in a corrupt casino - But the "Contrarian sell signal" point is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read.

So in english, it must means this; Everybody who has had the balls and inside info betting on this market parabol, driven by Fed intervention, will eventually make more money, until the Fed stops raising equity value through QE. BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Because contrairians didn't get the memo that Ben is buying the market!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! 

 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:10 | 3238658 yogibear
yogibear's picture

There certainly is market euphoria. The Fed equates printing and an ever higher market with the wealth feeling.

Ask the people in Zimbabwe how wealthy the felt when their stock market hit record highs.

 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:08 | 3238669 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Dance muppets.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:12 | 3238678 joego1
joego1's picture

Wow! 99% high on this sentiment stuff? Maybe I should ditch my meds and get some of that!

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:24 | 3238701 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

FED500? Mmmmm....  roast lamb....

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:28 | 3238723 mrfreeman
mrfreeman's picture

Everyone is soooo childish on here.  I presume you all gave up trying to trade this lunacy some time ago?  But anyway, if anyone is seriously trying to trade still, is it appropriate to note that the commercials have gone heavily long on treasury bonds, and short risk assets (S+P, copper, silver etc.)?  So would that *usually* mean risk off approaching?   Or doesn't that have ANY relevance anymore? 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:34 | 3238747 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"Everyone is soooo childish on here. I presume you all gave up trying to trade this lunacy some time ago? But anyway, if anyone is seriously trying to trade still......"

listen to yourself....and you are throwing stones? Head over to seeking alpha. Everyone on here mailed it in a long time ago.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:45 | 3238805 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

obvious bull trap is obvious.

still playing on half-life?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:39 | 3239073 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL! Med Giraffe and Fonz!  Half life.  

Hey Fonz Seeking Alpha is so effing lame.  Old guys and kids writing articles on how great Apple is and What Buffett Would Do?

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:53 | 3239151 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

sheeping alpha

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:36 | 3238760 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

In a controlled economy such as we now have, it makes no sense to talk about "bullish" sentiment.  The market is simply under the control of the United States government.  It will go up or down as the government wants it to.  History is no guide to what is happening now.  All the U.S. government is doing is looking to the decline in the society itself, to tell it what level the stock market should be.  It has nothing whatsoever to do with investor sentiment.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:49 | 3238817 optimator
optimator's picture

Fed puts in 1.5 million in the market in a day and DOW drops  40+ points.

Fed puts in 3.5 million in the market in a day and DOW rises 40+ points.

 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:40 | 3238774 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Let's slaughter us some bulls. I hope Cramer will make another "they're dyin' in the streets" speech.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:41 | 3238781 Michelle
Michelle's picture

When anyone on CNBC is asked if they would be buying stocks at this level, the canned answer is "if you're a long term investor...yes" Got the message loud and clear.

5 seconds before the closing bell today CNBC interviewed a veteran TRADER, asked about the SOTU address and whether he'd be buying, he said he'd sell his positions and buy back later. Got the message loud and clear.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:11 | 3238908 Karlus
Karlus's picture

That trader was "winning the future?" or maybe winning futures....or would win in the future....not sure anymore

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:41 | 3239088 Freddie
Freddie's picture

TV and Hollywood are for retards like Dorner.  Keep watching and keep supporting it.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 21:58 | 3238856 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

More hopium please.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:05 | 3238886 q99x2
q99x2's picture

3 more months. That's not long compared to the 4 years of waiting so far.

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:30 | 3239009 chump666
chump666's picture

Great post ZH, thanks

Greed is usually punished in an euphoria all in market.  The old school way of get the f*ck out of a overbought death trap was getting stock tips from Hookers and Cab drivers.  But average humans don't trade stocks anymore, it's the Wall Street greed wagon about to crash and burn. 

 

 

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:37 | 3239063 ytraderx
ytraderx's picture

Japan's economic minister recently announced that the government wants to push the Nikkei at 13,000. It looks like Japan is set for some heavy duty monetary easing! Check it out: http://www.globaleconomicmonitor.com/2013/02/japan-economic-minister-cal...

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:41 | 3239083 Herkimer Jerkimer
Herkimer Jerkimer's picture

'

'

'

'

I've seen Chart 4 all over lately.

 

Where can I get a hold of that sucker as an on-demand thing, 'cause it looks like a nice one to have around. I'd kind of like to see it when it looks like the bottom is comin' around again.

 

•?•
V-V

Tue, 02/12/2013 - 22:58 | 3239167 jim249
jim249's picture

Is bullishness the next bubble to pop? Stay tuned!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 00:32 | 3239521 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

A 12% correction within 3 months? Not quite an epic crash...just another dip to buy.

The BofAML indicator is just another overbought oversold indicator that matches everybody else's sentiment.  I note that their indicator was essentially neutral in late 2008, and failed to predict the major part of the crash.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 00:58 | 3239562 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Well... Japan is doing well.  Thanks to the cold weather!

"Cold Weather Probably Snapped Japan Out of Recession: Economy"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/cold-weather-probably-snapped-j...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 01:18 | 3239586 collon88
collon88's picture

This time is different.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 02:33 | 3239658 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Deja vu 2007 all over again.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:13 | 3240046 mrfreeman
mrfreeman's picture

Still playing half-life? Lol, you know what, I would MUCH rather play half-life and video games than watch these pathetic 'markets' and all the idiotic manipulation which masquerades as fundamentals.  At least you get some enjoyment out of the games. 

The reason I posted about the commercials is because their positioning matters.  There is a definite correlation between their long/short positions and market movements.  But nobody here seems bothered about that.  But I agree that the stock market only seems to go up nowadays, and I wonder if Ben has been so keen to pump it up, why would the commercials smack it down again?  Only if they can make money out of the sheep/hedge funds in the process! (With a little help from the Bernank and Draghula).

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