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Guest Post: Europe Is Not "Fixed": Two Charts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The Eurozone is not a debt crisis that is "fixed," it is a debt crisis waiting to implode.

The happy-talk that the Eurozone debt crisis has been resolved is ubiquitous. But when did ubiquitous happy-talk make it correct? Since the crisis is about debt--too much of it, and too much of it cannot and will not be paid back--then perhaps it would be prudent to look at two charts of eurozone credit, courtesy of the insightful chart-based website Market Daily Briefing.

Here is total Eurozone credit since the inception of the euro. This is roughly equivalent to TCMDO (Total Credit Market Debt Owed) in the U.S.

Notice that total credit owed has nearly tripled since the introduction of the euro in 1999, and that it continued to expand robustly after a brief pause in the global financial crisis of late 2008-early 2009. Recently, its expansion has flattened, but there is essentially no evidence that credit has declined, i.e. deleveraging.

Next up: Eurozone credit growth. Recall that debt-based, consumption-based economies like Europe, the U.S., China, Japan, et al. cannot expand without credit growth. Thus any decline of credit growth spells deflation:

This is not a debt crisis that is "fixed," this is a debt crisis waiting to implode. Total credit owed is still sky-high--only a trivial percentage of the debt has been written down or renounced.

Meanwhile, the credit growth needed to drive expanding consumption has literally fallen into the abyss.

This is the worst of all possible worlds in a debt-dependent economy: a massive overhang of impaired debt and a collapse in credit growth.

The only thing that's been "fixed" is the mainstream media's perception management propaganda. So is perception all there is to reality? The next six months should provide an answer.

 


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Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Oh, and half of the youth population is unemployed.

But who need jobs? Wealth? European millionaires and billionaires are doing better than ever, and accordign to central banks - that is ALL THAT MATTERS.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unemployed my ass.  There is more than one "market" in the euro-zone now.  I will be in France in July, need to confirm the rumors myself then.

The tighter the banking/financial overlords squeeze the more people slip through their grasp.  Fuck the motherfucking paper-pushers.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

On the other hand laws,

A mate of mine has been out of work for nearly 12 months and has applied for a shit load of work, he just cant get one.  In one case he reckons more than 200 folk applied for the job he did, and hes a sparky an all part P registered the lot, just not much going out there and getting worse.

Oh and its fucking snowing again, I fucking hate snow me.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Snow is great when you have skis on, otherwise, not so much.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Here in the United States, I submitted 3000+ resumes over the course of 2 years before I got a (shitty) job.

A Croatian girl I used to bang, a engineer with a PhD, can't even find work. AN ENGINEER.

Shit's bad, man.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 13:01 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Companies don't hire based on resumes. Most of the time the request for resumes is a formality and they go straight to the garbage can. Most good jobs are found via personal contacts - knowing somone who already works in the company. Of course, that doesn't help young people fresh out of school much.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

She has a PhD so maybe she can help Uncle Ben with engineering economic growth through the printing press. /sarc

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Those charts are just flat out fucking time bomb scary.  That's it, I'm buying more fucking silver.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment natronic
natronic's picture

That's what i'm doing.  I'm keeping my same ratty vehicle.  Not buying anything I don't have to and collecting silver, and a few weapons :-)

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Can you spare 56 trillion dimes brother?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

sorry... I only have 2,5 trillion 1964 silver dimes...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:05 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

CHS does not understand the new, NEW credo of NWO capitalism : Fiat Debt is ASSET.

And it works for both the private and public sector oligarchs! 

Everybody on board this titanic fiat juggernaut. 

Its now a battle between holders of fiat Assets in the form of CB notes OR in the form of private bank CDS/interest arbitrage/currency arbitrage paper on mega shitpiled OTC deals. 

The 64000 $ question is : whose assets are more witches' brew or true holy grail nectarine...eeny meenie miny moe! 

The chalice from the palace has the brew which is true! RIGHT???

Le bouffon du roi (1955) - Memorable quotes

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:05 | Link to Comment praps
praps's picture

Likewise US Treasuries yield rising.  Nobody wants debt any more.  Buyers strike.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

 

Greece is fixed again.  Everything is fine.  Relax everyone.  Have faith.  The bankers are here to help.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WE'LL NEVER BE FIXED!!!!!

ANYBODY TRIES TO TOUCH MY BALLS IS TOAST!!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just a question....has Europe tried solar panels?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

germany is energy self sufficient even after they turned off the atomic reactors. Enough energy during peak hours with no wind and sun is a problem. easy to solve with gas generators.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Huh?

German Energy Agency Chief 'We'll Need Conventional Power Plants until 2050'
SPIEGEL ONLINE - November 15, 2012

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-energy-expert-argues-...

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

sorry i forgot the word not enough energy during peak hours and no storage possibilities when the sun is shining or wind is blowing during non peak hours.
storage is key and peak is key, hence we still need gas or atomic, but i guess not as long as 2050, unless the atomic lobby lobbies as strong as they have so far, not solving the storage and peak electricity problems.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Have they figured out how to send the power from the offshore windparks into the grid yet? Last I heard was they built all those fancy windparks in the open ocean but didn't connect them via cable to the grid. I found that hard to believe but maybe you can shed some light on it.

FYI shutting down all nuclear power was the dumbest thing Fräulein Merkelchen ever did. She did many stupid things but that took the prize. She's a total moron.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

No its not easy to be green - without the use of Norway's pumped storage we would have the same problems in Denmark and not so many wind farms

Here a good visual of the problems with fluactuating energy in Germany:

Fluctuating Output, Wind and Solar, May 25 and 26, 2012:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/bild-852815-389683.html

Spiegel, Energy topic:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/german_energy_revolution/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/renewable_energy/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/fossil_fuels/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/coal/

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment piliage
piliage's picture

Sure...right. And they imported 32 million tonnes of coal in 2012 why, just for pleasure?

http://www.icis.com/heren/articles/2012/05/16/9560393/coal/edem/german-c...

 

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"..And they imported 32 million tonnes of coal.."

Yes, but..but they will burn the coal in very green coal power plants ;-)

A New Role for Coal in German Energy Revolution
SPIEGEL ONLINE - September 07, 2012
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/new-coal-fired-plants-could-...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:17 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Europe Is Not "Fixed"... and the US is?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Yes, the markets in the US are fixed. 

They are fixed every day at 3 pm.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment skistroni
skistroni's picture

I deleveraged by 25% in my company last year. I tell you, it feels like shit.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 13:20 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I feel your pain. Go underground. That's my recommendation to friends in Germany. Black market is thriving.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone just marching in place, kicking the can yet another 24 hours....for what....I'm not sure I even want to know.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 13:18 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

24 hours can kicking ... to live to see another day.

We haven't evolved past being day laborers except for a few blips on the long line of human evolution.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

"... consumption-based economies like Europe, the U.S., China, Japan, et al. cannot expand without credit growth. Thus any decline of credit growth spells deflation. ..."

 

Ahh, deflation.  And it's going to hurt real bad too.

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