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Japan Refuses To Exit Triple-Dip Recession As Q4 GDP Disappoints Expectations Of A Positive Print

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite so much pent up hope that Japan would post a 0.4% annualized growth (and a 0.1% rise Q/Q) in its Q4 GDP, finally exiting that pesky triple dip recession it has been stuck in for the past five years, moments ago the Cabinet Office reported that contrary to optimistic expectations, in the 4th quarter the economy again contracted for the third straight quarter, this time by 0.4% annualized, and 0.1% on a Q/Q basis. This was driven by a whopping 14% SAAR implosion in exports, which should not come as a surprise to those who have been tracking the ongoing destruction of Japan's trade balance (and current account surplus). "Japan's economy may show some weakness for the time being. But it is likely to resume a moderate recovery thereafter due to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing, the effect of an emergency economic package, as well as an expected moderate recovery in the global economy," Economics Minister Akira Amari said in a statement. True: there is hope. And there is the reality that all the BOJ is doing is desperately trying to offset the loss of the Chinese export market, which courtesy of the ever escalating foreign relations snafu involving a few islands close to a massive gas field, remains as shut as ever. And as long as China refuses to assist Japan in its trade and current account deficit predicament, Amari can hope, and hope, and hope.

And the components:

 

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Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:28 | 3241578 MrX
MrX's picture

dead horse.....beating one, that is. See here regarding Japan: http://vimeo.com/15056028

 .....the 2nd half of that video pertains to JAPAN specifically...and quite dramatically(painfully)

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:29 | 3241589 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

The Chinese will just wait until the radiation makes the country too sick to go to war. Then there won't be any fight over the islands, and not a shot fired.

Won't take long.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:29 | 3241590 espirit
espirit's picture

Koolade drinkers rejoice! The global economy is recovering...

Yep, /sarc.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:29 | 3241591 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Now Abe is going to really throw gas on the fire! He has his an excuse to print away, if any of his C/B cohorts bitch about the soft yen.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 22:00 | 3241796 TotalCarp
TotalCarp's picture

Y'know this is just gonna be spun off as bernanke is so smart, fed is doing so well, us recovering nicely blah blah. Zero concept of nominal v real these ppl have..

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 23:02 | 3241961 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Can you please translate that last chart for the rest of the group?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:35 | 3241594 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Tyler, if smashing the JPY doesnt (as we know) improve Japans exports then why do you always suggest that rising EUR is bad for German exports? if you would be so kind as to explain your bias or reasoning i would appreciate it. Thanks.

And on a more interesting note.. GBP is going the way of the dodo and will drag the USD with it two weeks from now.

Pound goes Dollar follows...

Hello Gold

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:51 | 3241617 Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Germany =/= Japan.

Japan is excelling at pissing off a major importer of its goods. No amount of yen weakening offsets that.

Japan is importing massive amounts of energy (weak yen makes that expensive).

Cue FUBAR balance of payments.

 

Germany relied on exports to the EU. Now the EU is impoverished, it needs to sell to non EU countries, via an expensive Euro.

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:12 | 3241648 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

The majority of German imports also come from Europe (69%) so the price of all these went up no?

and you dont think Germany needs massive amounts of energy (from Russia) and raw materials and machined components?

Strong currency = strong country

Typical EUR bashng with no substance.

Its not the point that the EU is a joke, because it certainly is.. its that it seems to receive a rather biased treatment from the anglophiles

....and when you are selling engineered products, especially automobiles, machinery, metals, and chemical goods then you can maybe charge quite a bit for them and do ok. germany doesnt make plastic cars it makes porsches whom i do belive just posted rather large profits

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 22:25 | 3241869 Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Oh, I agree with you that a strong currency makes for a strong country, and that weakening your currency for short term export boosts is very much a banana republic knee-jerk.

But, it is true that the German and Japanese raw materials and energy import needs are not similar at all. Japan could also export high vallued added goods with a strong currency, what is currently happening to it is very much china-specific. And no weakening of the yen will help them. If Germany started pissing off Russia or its importers, the picture would differ.

 

Then again, it is not the anglophiles(?) voicing this bias.

Germany has stated worries over a strong Euro.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 06:54 | 3242517 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

They are just saying that to help support the USD and stop it collapsing. EUR and USD are managing one another to stop collapse untill we get a new currency reserve from Asia. Germany is totaly on board with China and Russia and US is to be cast aside as scrap. This whole weakening EURO thing is just to prolong the inevitable decline of the USD..

its called "buying time"

Prior 2008.. originaly a UK/US specific crisis... a strong EUR didnt seem to be too much a concern for german exporters or Gov... What changed there i wonder?

Anyway. Watch EURGOLD to call the top in equities.

Wont be much longer

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:35 | 3241595 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Did they run out of Hopium?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:36 | 3241725 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Nope, markets up. Fundamentals no longer matter.

Recessionary bull markets forever!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:38 | 3241599 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

Nikkei is up in early trading.  Q4 was so last year!  We've moved on to Yenflation, and it's all good from here!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:59 | 3241633 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Bad news = bullish. Good news = bullish. Win-win.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:40 | 3241600 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

kuyashii...

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:39 | 3241601 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

and with that news, the nikkei is up 45 pts. makes sense, contraction = up market in this market

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:53 | 3241619 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Yup, now they can print even more than unlimited money, turning the knob up to 11 because it has been so successful so far. As long as asset prices keep rising faster than fundamentals (bubble) all is good my son

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:52 | 3241609 besnook
besnook's picture

china is whispering sweet nothings in japan's ear. "do you want that fat, smelly yankee dog fisting your ass or some sweet chinese lotus blossom tickiling your balls"

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:54 | 3241622 Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

+1 woke my neighbour with a really weird middle of the night LOL

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:40 | 3241614 chump666
chump666's picture

Japan is becoming increasingly an isolationist nation within Asia.

Here is a perfect example of the lunacy of Keynesian based economic liberalism with it's Rousseauist influences. 

Nothing will stop the inevitable.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 22:17 | 3241837 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey chump did you notice the ASX moved through the 5000 handle? The Asian markets are ramped beyond belief. (Hang Seng trading @23323 currently) This shit isn't going to end well.

   I'm already starting to see some cracks in the markets,as I'm sure you are as well. ;-)

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 22:54 | 3241868 chump666
chump666's picture

Oh yeah I agree, I would say that Asia will bring this down. Hang Seng will be on my watchlist for an Asian panic.  ASX200 is an all in trade, retail could be now throwing their lot in as opposed to US markets, which I think are not going retail all in.

Asia could be entering the retail fleece stage on euphoric mania.  As you said, looks topped and cracked

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:56 | 3241618 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Abe needs to stop playing with his "Love Doll" and get serious....either poop or get off the pot! mPrint faster!!

 

http://www.odditycentral.com/pics/only-in-japan-love-doll-brothels-are-b...

 

 

"Some people tend to compare Japanese Love Dolls with regular western sex dolls, but in reality, they are on a whole other level. Believe it or not, people actually pay big money to sleep with a doll, at the bustling love doll brothels across Japan."

 

What a strange place.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:01 | 3241639 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Japanese Love Dolls

Do you think they whine about you taking too long?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 20:59 | 3241632 Aunty Christ
Aunty Christ's picture

Don't see how Japanese trade balance improves with Abenomics. The countdown to a new administration has begun. Sayonara Abe!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:22 | 3241673 adr
adr's picture

Strange there would be a contractionary print? Japan is actually very good at copying the cooking of other countries. I've had French food in Japan better than Paris.

Somehow the art of book frying must have been passed over.

You can bet on at least a 1%+ upside revision to US Q4 GDP. Good for at least S&P 1580. LOOK WE THOUGHT WE CONTRACTED, HA MADE YOU THINK SO!!! This is America, we never go down.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:28 | 3241689 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

More printing!

More sushi!

More hamburgers!

More college loans!

More offshoring!

More "green energy"!

More monkeys!

More baboons!

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:29 | 3241694 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Maybe we can send the master of hope, our esteemed Dictator, over to Japan to show them how it's done.  Afterall, we have enjoyed a monumental rise in GDP thanks to the spectacular central planning initiatives enacted by our socialist fathers. 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:33 | 3241701 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Kinda tough for Tokyo to hide all of the -20% of GDP that China has put the kaibosh on. Anybody who believes these govt. numbers doesn't live in Japan (outside Tokyo).

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 07:42 | 3242545 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

why did japan's gov just mandate a 20% reduction in refinery output??http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2560849.stm

can't sell gasoline / petrol in a strong economy?? gotta laugh

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:34 | 3241717 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

This is the only example of a modern day triple dip recession, no?

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 21:44 | 3241747 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Japan needs to be honest about whose bitch it is.

Reality is the US can't pay its bills.

Time for Japan to pleasure the mighty Renminbi.

No rush Abe your country is only disintergrating on your watch, time to put on some lipstick.

 

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 22:22 | 3241856 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

Silver Dragon its not Lipstick .....its Diapers - get with the program.

Wed, 02/13/2013 - 23:39 | 3242043 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Bottom line Japan is f*cked.

They pissed China off so China is closing their economy down.

Not real smart the Japanese.

Add to that all the usless youth and tens of millions of unproductive old people.

Japan needs to reset at 80 million people and be real nice to "Daddy".

Japan has to get used to having the same economic and political influence as Korea.

F*ck all!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 00:09 | 3242104 oak
oak's picture

japan should be very worried about north korea in a military way.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 00:55 | 3242223 chump666
chump666's picture

I wouldn't get too cocky. Japan knows China will come off (economically) worst in a war.

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 01:08 | 3242253 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

All Japan knows is that China is crushing its economy like the bug it is. If China gets real pissed off it could just seize all the Japanese companies and Japanese manufacturing plants in China to use to compensate the Chinese negatively impacted during WWII.

That puts Japan back in the stone age.

The Japanese military couldn't punch their way out of a wet paper bag, ten of millions of useless old people and tens of millions of useless young people. The cuntry is f*cked.

Alternately the Chinese can just wait and let the Japanese reactors kill of the Japanese slowly.

Either way, game over.

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 01:43 | 3242306 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

> If China gets real pissed off it could just seize all the Japanese companies and Japanese manufacturing plants in China

Great way to attract foreign investment!
I'm sure American and European investment would surge...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 06:15 | 3242491 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Non Passaran,

And where would they go? Producing stuff is also about sourcing affordable components and and the transportation of all those components in time to the manufacturing facility while maximizing cashflow and then getting the product with minimum transpostation costs to market. So China is kinda a one stop shop!

Make stuff elsewhere and have higher transportation, component, salary, water, electricity, rent, management etc costs. Make stuff which costs you more than your competitor, yeah real smart.

Aint happenning! The FDI will keep rolling as China is the only game in town. Oh wait up the US and Europe are broke so aint much FDI coming from them anyway. However business people from those countries care about making profitable products so they will keep coming.  Its just business! No feeling, no emotion!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 07:12 | 3242533 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

The land of the setting sun. RIP

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 13:30 | 3243505 silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Japan be dead!

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