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Bonds Up, Stocks Up, USD Up, JPY Up! Fed Up?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Nothing matters - that is all. Some of the ugliest macro data we have seen in a while (apart from an 'estimated' initial claims print) and the moment the US opens - the bid is in (discounting Buffett's inflows?). It seems that the market has decided that if it quietly goes up day after day by a point here or there then noone will notice - and call it for what it is. S&P 500 has closed within a 4 point range for the last week - 1518, 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521. Financials were bid, Utilities offered, and Tech tracked AAPL up and down. Treasuries rallied notably from the open of the US day session, recoupling with stocks from yesterday's 'great rotation' sell-off. The USD leaks higher, with GBP weakness and modest JPY strength on the week, weighing on PMs further as Silver ran lower this morning (to test unchanged YTD) but bounced from the open on. VIX compressed to 12.65% and held stocks up.  Oil remains bid above $97 - handy outperfortmer on the week. So summing it up - 4 days of uber low volume, falling average trade size, gently rising stocks, flat USD, flat Treasuries, lower gold, and higher oil. And for the record, S&P options skew (complacency) is now at pre-crisis levels. 

 

Short-term realized volatility has only been this low once in the last 10 years! Each time the market has been this quiet - volatility has smashed higher shortly after...


 

The S&P 500 volume was once again well below a falling average and average trade size the lowest in weeks...

 

Oil is holding in as Gold and Silver slip..

 

Silver's dump this morning appears to be a test of the YTD unch line...

 

As the USD ends +0.2%, EUR unch and JPY regaining some much-hated strength (that we are sure Abe or his proxy will allow just through the G-20 weekend)...

 

as Bonds disappoint the rotation meme once again...


 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: This is the skew implied by option prices - i.e. by looking at options prices we can discern the distribution of potential returns implied by the market (as opposed to moneyness skew). This chart is interpreted simply - the higher the level, the more complacent about any downside - we are now at pre-crisis high levels of complacency!!


 


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Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Yeah, it is way past the point where it just doesnt not matter anymore.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Afternoon News Update & Threadjacking

Senator Elizabeth Warren Asks Regulators Today; "When Was The Last Time You Took A Big Bank To Trial?"  Followed by: "Why Are The Big Banks Trading Below Book Value?"  Anyone? Anyone?  VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxhyUAWPmGw

Matt Taibbi Explains How HSBC Partners With Drug Cartels And Terrorists

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-ja...

GE $14 Billion Windfall To Be Used For Buying Spree

http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/GE-s-16-7-billion-NBC-windfall...

Florida Law Would Limit Time Of Alimony Payments To 50% Of Marriage Time

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/hous...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

And guess what? Silver and gold smashed. Though platinum and palladium remain incredibly resilient. Just think, a few months ago platinum was $200/oz cheaper than gold. Today, it's $100/oz more expensive! Invest in rarities, invest in physical wealth, and wait it out.

The entire paper wealth paradigm is one gigantic ticking time bomb. ETFs, futures, and other forms of digital junk are about as useful as a chocolate teapot for us non-initiated into the cult of 33 Liberty street.

Meanwhile, as you can see from the charts on www.CompareSilverprices.com and www.CompareGoldPrices.com , the smack has simply led to higher premiums in the physical market. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

LOL. All those suckers who junked me earlier could have checked out the link, paid attention to at least my gold model (freely available), and might have either A) found some opportunity or B) saved their asses by using a bit of superior intel.

Anyway, today's action in gold and silver was yet again no surprise. If you're paper trading these markets or trying to gather enough physical at decent prices, you better be using good tools or you're giving away your money.

And no, DCA is for losers - especially in this day and age.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/02/14/goldsilver-3/ - Updated.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

What will crude peak at in USD this year? Seems to me that is what matters at this point.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Really.

My PM's are priced in PM's.

Always worked for my family over 200 years.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

pricedingold.com

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

--does not--

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

A point a day keeps the bears away!

why didn't we think of this before, rig it for a point a day and we will get another 200 points on the SPX for the rest of the year or 13%....yea...were gonna be rich bitchez

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment rahbii
rahbii's picture

God bless the USSA!  

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This is what QE and ZIRP were meant to do.

Drive retail out of the equity markets, to make it easier to lurch them higher on little-to-no volume.

Less volatility=higher prices=rich get moar richer.

Sure, a 401(k) will boast nice gains, but then, so will commodities and food stuffs.

So, stick that in your retirement portfolio and smoke it.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I would argue "major league unintended consequence" actually. And with 200 billion still vaporized from Lehman and it's no wonder Syria was declared "verboten." unfortunately we appear to either a: have double dipped or b: are about to. It won't be hard to tell if so. Look for retail prices to start plunging "and proceed from there."

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Pro's afraid to sell, Fed buying what it can, and retail is already gone.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Retail doesn't need any more bubbles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEuNk4JMsUM

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

well...don't fight it...

my portfolio - UP!!!

Just playing the game with 'em.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Hey Fred! ~ Ya hear that?.... add another joobuck gazillionaire to the scrap heap...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Unemployment Up, Mass Murders Up, Real Inflation Up, People on Welfare Up - awww, who gives a shit any more!  This ponzi scheme is going to the moon bitches!

I'm going long tulip bulbs before they run out!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

+1

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

Alternatively, the headline could read Dollar Down.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

USD closed up on the day, no?  It's been rallying all month.  

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Feels like the calm before the storm.  QE was just increased to over $1 Trillion a year and the market is D.O.A.?  WTF?????!!!!!!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I wonder how many secondary offerings we'll have today?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

lol, no worries, if your company isnt really living up to expectations, you will just get taken out by buffett. At the end of the day the Fed can just underwrite Berkshire to sweep the markets clean of anything too onerous to ramp

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Ha!

 

You're all fucking expecting "fundamentals" to fucking kick in when chief of all fucking ponzi's is fucking pumping $85+B a month into the fucking TBTF's to take and fuck everyone else up the ass?

 

Fuck you Bernanke.  You have succeeded in fucking creating the fucking financial bomb to end all fucking bubble bombs you fucking pure evil dick.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

+11 F-bombs.

Love it!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

You're becoming blatantly gratuitous, and for that I thank you.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I scroll through posts to look for Mr. Bubble which means you, which means a shitload of fucks. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

It is Valentines Day.......everything is locked and loaded and ready for take-off.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

5 cents please... [nickles bitchez]...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

how about if a stock in a company that was  minted on a physical gold coin. Say a 1 oz APPL gold coins that had 10 shares of apple stock printed on it. dividend paying gold and hedged equity in the palm of your hand.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

As one of the last shorts standing and having my a$$ handed to me along with giving back all my January gains (not to mention getting beat by a 16 yr old trading genius), I must admit that another day of this will drive me to cover and stand aside.  I may have to make a sacrifice to the short gods.  A market fall will arrive shortly thereafter.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

You *should have* been right. It's just that the overlords are running the game.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Sequester drama + "sell in May and go away" will claw back Jan. and then some.  We'll end the year up 8-10%, but there will be some swings.

Remember, ever year we've had since the 2009 bottom has had some "down events" peppered into it in order to make it seem like the market isn't totally fucking rigged.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Don't bail yet.  Given the recent GDP news both here and in TROW, the tide may finally be turning, and if we slip into "official" recession again, even Ben's $85B a month won't be able to keep stocks up.

Give it another week or two, at least.  I've been waiting years, and am not about to give up now.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

RETAIL is ALL OVER THIS MARKET...it is the "pro's" that are screwed. All the guys I know (retail) have been short gold/silver, long the banks for sixteen months and making huge dough. Yeah it looks and feels phony but all this really represents is my "Best trade for 2013: SHORT CASH and CASH EQUIVALENTS

Cash is trash and while stocks may be overpriced, cash is absurdly expensive. The Central Bankers are telegraphing that and have been since 2008. "No deflation on my watch - no-sir-eeeee."

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

fuck you troll.  You do know what fucking website this is right?  Go back to Yahoo fuckstick.

 

(note: if you forgot the "sarc/" tag at the end of your post, disregard the above fuck you's)

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:33 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That was fucking hilarious...

~~~

Now I want to hear this guys 'Oscar' predictions... Let me guess...

- A Spielberg sweep [because of his ACCURATE portrayal of Lincoln]...

- Statues for Zero Dark Thirty [because of the riveting, edge of your seat, depiction of the Bin Laden raid]...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

Well they got me.  I blew my load fighting the fed, even though I was told as a young man to never fight the fed.  I just refused to believe they would take the ponzi to this level.  Well, I'm out now don't give a rats ass and will never play again after a lifetime in the business because well really....what's the point.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

There is no point.

It's pointless!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Well, I'm out now don't give a rats ass and will never play again

Sorry you went through that, but welcome to the outside.

Screw the system!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Law97
Law97's picture

Yeah, me too, lost it all shorting the market on fundamentals.  I finally lost another little $5K nest egg (saved up from wages) on SPY puts over the last month.  Figured the market wasn't going to get its good earnings, rebound in hiring, rebounding Europe, and robust Q4 GDP growth it was pricing in.  I got everything right except the which direction stocks would go as a result of all these negative macro surprises part.  But, now I'm out-OUT.  For good.  Fuck them and their short term ill-gotten trillions.  They only had to bring down America to do it, but eh, when you have a few hundred million stashed in Cayman accounts and Picasso's, who needs America anymore anyway?  As the above poster noted, I'm finaly free...nothing left to lose is another word for freedom.  Let's get going on this reset so at least my kids might have a future. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment wrs1
wrs1's picture

That is why options are useless.  They zeroed all the puts on both SPY and IWM today and there are massive numbers of in the money calls ready for the ensuing crash.  Seen it happen over and over to gold and silver, looks like the same setup for the call holders tomorrow and next week.

 

SPX looked to me like it topped yesterday, I went 100% short and am just trading in and out on the rips and dips.  When it dips, I sell some SPXU and when it goes back up as it always does, I buy it back.  Been a good trade for a week or so, you just can't hold the stuff or if you do, at least trade half of it in and out.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Fucked up.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

HYG and JNK still sending the "sell" signal, as are emerging markets.  T bills flip off every single talking head meme for the last seven weeks...the so called "great rotation"....pffft.  The TLT actually gave a significant upside reversal signal today before during and after today's auction.

European fundamentals absolutely roll over...not that they were any good to begin with.

The NY Fed makes a statement in the closing hour that it has not intervened in currency markets.  LOL!  There is your Bernankster laughing at you...talking to you as if you are a moron.  

CNBC talking heads urging folks to quick open up their 401k statements in an obvious attempt to locate moar greater fools...while simultaneously giving air time to Bernie Madoff bitching from his prison cell.

And the Roach Motel [SPY] closes up.  We have truly entered that market phase that the ZH brotherhood can love...with only the severely mentally retarded algos firing now.  

What an embarrassment this has all become.  What a laughing stock...a truly ridiculous joke.  Sell anything with a pulse in the morning...and ahead of closed markets on Monday.

Good grief...and by that I mean...I was born in the morning...just not yesterday morning.

Thank you Ben Bernanke for this ridiculous wasteland you have created for us.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Wheres Robottrader to cheerlead this market higher?  I miss the tits on his avatar.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 21:21 | Link to Comment wrs1
wrs1's picture

Here he is making fun of you guys on this thread

http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=112121&post=411043

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

1518, 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521.

Must have dawned on the person programming these results that it would look suspicious, so they swapped the Monday and Tuesday numbers. Much better.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Is it wrong to actually WANT the crash to come so I can watch the ignorant fucks of the USSA wonder what the fuck happened; as those in the EBT brigade kill each other for Hot Pockets because the ghetto Visa cards don't be workin' no mo; as the self-appointed most-compassionate liberals, who always vote to raise my taxes, fist-fight over the last bottle of water on the shelf; as the public-sector employees who voted for Democrats to consort with the unions to give themselves the ability to retire at 55 while I work til I'm 65 to pay for it wonder if they're going to have to eat Alpo because the state can't pay their ridiculous pensions, etc. etc., all while I enjoy my stockpile of food, water, fine tobacco, and exquisite liquor, run my fingers over my stacks of gold and silver, and laugh like a maniac?

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Please give it a month so I can sell my house.

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Conax
Conax's picture

You could see it all today in microcosm aboard that drifting disaster in the gulf.

It's a carnival of shit out there. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment fortune114
fortune114's picture

Excellent visual especially if you look like your avatar.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Haha!  I don't, but that's a hilarious visual.  

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

Nope.  Not wrong at all.  Its fucking perfect! +1

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

G's up

Ho's down

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Who cares what the world economies are doing when the money is being spoon fed from central banks? In fact the more economic recessions the better, it guarantees moar central bank printing. Share markets are drinking up like a baby sucking its sustenance from mummy's big tit.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

I'm going back to bed.

Today was the oddest yet.Which is the dream ?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Its all FIXED...US Fed balance sheet liabilities grew to a record USD 3.056trl as of Feb 13th vs. USD 2.997trl the previous week

- Fed holdings of US Treasuries total USD 1.728trl as of Feb 13th vs. USD 1.717trl the prev. week.
- Fed holdings of agency debt total USD 74.61bln as of Feb 13th vs. USD 75.11bln the prev. week.
- Fed holdings of MBS total USD 1.010bln as of Feb 13th vs. USD 965.88bln the prev. week.

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/us-fed-balance-sheet-liabilities-grew-to-...
Nice typo last sentence...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Bubbles aren't built one grain at a time -- sandcastles are.  

And, we know what happens to sandcastles, don't we ?  After initially impressing the cute coeds on the beach, eventually an iron-pumping bully gets jealous and knocks it down.  

Best guess at this year's bully -- your friendly neighborhood congressmen and senators, who are presently comparing Fiscal Cliff Notes.  Given Washington's stellar record of trading returns, when volatility starts to get bid up, we can get ready for them to hit the Sunday talks shows and crumple this puppy back to horizontal.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

You must be a seller.  The last 5% changes nothing.  You chumps gonna bail fast enough to avoid the cellar?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:45 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Thank you ZH, very good summary.

About USD strength, it's the mass of buying from South America (inflation) and China (inflation and uncertainty).  The DXY has been bid for months and bonds haven't collapsed = stocks are now so over priced on thin liquidity, that buying into this market is suicidal.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:06 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

volatility has smashed higher shortly after...

 

 

If you call 6-8 months later 'shorty'

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:07 | Link to Comment FecundaGoat
FecundaGoat's picture

With all the Gold and Silver advertised on this website, did it ever occur to anyone that Tyler was trying to herd ZH readers to the advertisers?

Or is that just toooo obvious?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

So when does this all end...how does it end?  Maybe never, and central banks can create new money all over the world and all will be well.

 

Nobody seems to want to ask the question "what would happen if the Fed stopped printing money to buy debt nobody else wants?".  I think the world would fall apart in about one month....total anarchy. 

 

It is great to be at the mercy of a banking cartel headquartered in the old world.  Way to go Amerika!!

 

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment wrs1
wrs1's picture

You can find him here

http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=112121&post=411043

Making fun of you guys every day.  But that's OK because we give him shit all day long for his absurd play by play of the always crashing PM markets, commodities, Peak Oil and so on.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!