Initial Claims Plunge As Department Of Labor "Estimates" Claims For Illinois, Connecticut; Blizzard "Blamed"

Tyler Durden's picture

The last time the US government showed its predictive data crunching euphoria, was the week of January 24 when the fine folks at the Department of Labor "estimated" the initial claims for the most populat US state - California, resulting in the lowest initial claims print since January 2008, or 335K (followed promptly by a claims surge the week after). Today, we just got an initial claims print of 341K, far below expectations of a 360K number, and even more below last week's upward (of course) revised number of 368K. On the surface- great. Until one reads the actual release: "Jobless claims for Connecticut and Illinois were estimated by the Labor Department, a spokesman said as the figures were being released." Because apparently, the "blizzard upset the application process." And there you have it. The government no longer even pretends to collect data when pulling numbers out of thin air and seasonally adjusting it. Now it literally makes up numbers, and then seasonally adjusts it. Since the number is now nothing but noise, there is no point to even comment on it. In the meantime, the algos are more than happy to react to even absolutely meaningless "data" - just as expected.

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spastic_colon's picture

yaaaay.....QE is no longer needed!  /s


besides, futures were down doncha know

GetZeeGold's picture



Claims are always down.....initially.


Always wait for the revisions......just guessing we're still gonna need some more QE.

HoofHearted's picture

We're probably all fooked because we're even reading the bullshit numbers that the B(S)LS puts out. At least none of us believe the doubleplusgood numbers. Fuck you, Ben Bernanke. And fuck Big Brother. Or is that Big Brotha? Don't tase me, man.

SeattleBruce's picture

They don't call it the B(l)S for nothin'!

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Jobless claims for Connecticut and Illinois were estimated by the Labor Department, a spokesman said as the figures were being released." Because apparently, the "blizzard upset the application process."

The unemployment application for CT is on-line.  So I call BS on the blizzard excuse.

ebworthen's picture

Well, you know, to "do the right thing" the FED will eventually need to raise rates and get that inflation thing "officially" humming.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Very good.  I will also be "estimating" my income for 2012 on my tax returns.  Fuck you Bernanke.

SeattleBruce's picture

I hear Timmy Geithner has a good tax guy...

Melson Nandela's picture

I bet we see /TF 925 today...short it. I would rather be too early to the short party than be the last long bag holder .

spastic_colon's picture

Cdad's picture

Nothing like overpaid bureaucratic employees...except overpaid bureaucratic employees that can't ever seem to do their jobs properly.  Tell me again...why do we have the BLS? 

Might I humbly suggest that, in a small effort to reduce the federal deficit, this entire department be sent home permanently?  A crazy thought, I know.

SeattleBruce's picture

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.  How many federal goobermint departments could disappear tomorrow, and our lives would be dramtically better off?

Sudden Debt's picture



monopoly's picture

The Madness continues. At what point does it end?

Cdad's picture

At what point?  When everyone is suddenly and violently cut in half, their net worth once again confiscated by the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.  I'd say it will happen "one morning," but with the advent of HFT, it can happen any second...literally.

This ship is leaking so badly at this point...could be today, in fact.  I understand the SEC has got that whole flash crash thingy all figured almost three years later.  And when it happens, anyone dumb enough to own this ridiculously broken market gets exactly what he deserves.

Good luck out there, folks.

Everybodys All American's picture

Dont you get the feeling that when the market does break down the ptb will just back out all the trades anyway?

fonzannoon's picture

my guess is they will blame the hft crash on all the "cyber wars" going on. We will have an excuse to go to war and it will take 25 years of litigation for them to decide not to make anyone whole on their losses

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  It won't stop then either.  It will stop when the supply lines for essential commodites breaks and food and fuel are hard to come by.  Then the world goes to war.  History is very clear on this.


Remember, ALL eCONomies are really local, hedge accordingly.

HoofHearted's picture

I say go long debt in fiat currencies. Blow every fucking credit card out, take that extra home quity loan. Hell, see if you can get the Native American dude advertising on the radio to give you a payday loan. Then buy the shit out of guns and ammo, gold and silver, but most importantly foodstuffs and arable farmland. Then sit back well-armed and growing stuff, being willing to trade a few ears of corn for the previous debt. It worked to perfection in Weimar land...

Melson Nandela's picture

Don´t dare gamble on the home equity loan, they will take your house. Unsecured Debt on the other hand is not such a bad idea. Especially if you have thought ahead and buried my precious outside the reach of TPTB.

SeattleBruce's picture

"Don´t dare gamble on the home equity loan"

Just make sure your rates are fixed.  At some point soon, you can repay it with worthless fiat - maybe in a 30 to 60 day period if Weimar be our guide.

horseman's picture

I am sure there is a super secret clause that  allows banks to hike rates on a fixed loan in an "emergency".  And if there isn't one presently, Obama will ex order one when the time comes.


Sudden Debt's picture

Just click your heels 3 times dorothy, and say: "there's no place like home, there's no place like home"....


but first.... you'll need some rubby slippers...

and for that you need to kill the witch...


yrbmegr's picture

It doesn't.  Why would it?

Suisse's picture

They should start estimating other figures like GDP. Everything will be great then! Then again, they probably already are doing this.


When will Silver spike? Any ideas???


Cdad's picture

Ummm...after it first leads the entire market down in a bitter correction?  Seriously, who knows anymore?  As was mentioned yesterday via the Santelli rant, you cannot know because the basis on which you calculate value [the dollar] is unknowable.  All that is left to do is bet on which illegitimate sovereign government is more efficient with its currency devaluation.  Good luck with that. 

Thank you, Ben Bernanke, for this wasteland you have made for us.

MyBrothersKeeper's picture

In my opinion, any type of default in Europe/JApan will send the dollar soaring higher and drop metals further.  That will be the time to go long just before panic and capitulation.

SeattleBruce's picture

"Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported Thursday that central banks last year bought 534.6 tons of gold last year, the most since 1964, as global gold demand reached a record level. Gold demand in value terms reached a record in 2012."

Demand for phys gold is not the problem.  Market manipulation, either outright in paper gold, and of the fiats is (currency war) thing for sure, the fiats are based on NOTHING.  The USD may be stronger relatively, for a while longer, but all fiats (the basket of currencies) are setting up for a drop closer to their true worthless value.  Then gold will shine.

Iocosus's picture

Forex didn't even blink; even currency traders don't take this stuff seriously anymore.

thismarketisrigged's picture

futures were down modestly, no way they were going to print a bad jobless claim number and have it slip further. 


fuck this shit, it will just make it that much sweeter when we get the 80 percent collapse

francis_sawyer's picture

So it's all the fault of a Dairy Queen milkshake?

Everybodys All American's picture

The con is the new normal. Atlas shrugs yet again. sigh.

Walt D.'s picture

When there is a blizzard, the Department of Labor pulls these numbers out of a place where the sun isn't shining. The problem is that is where  they always pull the numbers from.

ImReady's picture

Thats funny, I live in IL and we didn't have a blizzard. Silly me, I must not have been paying attention.

Maybe it was the blizzard of bullshit coming out of Springfield. Unable to sell bonds(Due to the recent credit downgrade) to finance the schools and upcoming roadwork season, things are only going to get worse.

More estimates to come for IL...

ebworthen's picture

O.K., so claims are down and Buffet is buying Heinz so he can own the ketchup he licks off Quick's tits.

However, futures are down, -50 for the DOW, what am I missing?

That thing should be green to the moon (?).

SeattleBruce's picture

Now it's green - 90 minutes in...

Sandy15's picture

This has been going on since January 2009..... estimate, manipulate, hide, etc, etc....... then the next week they are revised up!!

Market reacts to the positive numbers, but NEVER the revised numbers.......  Gives Ben a reason to pump up the market.  7 weeks of S&P movement.  Something is going to break soon as Ben stretches the rubberband more and more.......

SeattleBruce's picture

"This has been going on since January 2009..... estimate, manipulate, hide, etc, etc....... then the next week they are revised up!!"

Hey, it was a great tactic to help get Obamao relected.  Who are we to question our second black POTUS?  The UR doesn't matter much to people that don't work - for a living!  The bankstas, corrupt politicians and the permanent SNAP card underclass - a perfect triad to be filed under 'how to take over a free country.'  Unlike the 'hope and change' mantra, the permanent food stampers are a perfect foil to prevent any kind of change to the status quo, the PTB, from actually happening.  When the free food supply gets interrupted, that's when the SHTF.

LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you Obama and your fucking entire manipulating administration. Fucking assholes, I hope you all fucking get the slow fucking painful trut h shoved up your fucking asses, you fucking pigs.

ebworthen's picture

I'm fucking with you!

Obama says "Be Mein" (you have to see WB7's Valentine's Day Massacre post).

Seig Heil!

lunaticfringe's picture

Market will be down today. I predicted it 2 weeks ago after seeing the 18 day POMO schedule for Feb. Today is the first non POMO non MOMO day of the month. 

Lord Of Finance's picture

Ok. Maybe we don't have a fascist nazi regime in control of the political apparatus, yet; but we certainly have an economic propaganda apparatus on par with such a regime.

MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Well said.....and it's a global propaganda apparatus

MyBrothersKeeper's picture

It's all part of of the unvirtuous cycle.  Think about a set of stairs with many ups and downs that eventually lead you to the same place.  How many times in last 14 months have we seen the mainstream media trumpet "lower than expected" initial claims?....and then have the revisions, adjustments, estimates from large states essentially ignored? How many times have we heard there is no inflation? But gas is pushing $3.80 again, food comtinues toi climb, healthcare skyrockets etc?  The bottom line is as nominal wages continue to stagnate or decline and financial repression squeezes the middle class further and further it will start to dawn on people that their quality of life seems to continue to get worse vs the point that they cannot ignore it anymore. At some point you bein to realize that you are taking as many steps down as up. The bottom line is there is no recovery unless employment goes up dramatically.  The "plow horse" economy rhetoric is just bs because one of 2 things is going to happen: we will either see  dramatic increase in full time employment or we are going to get an event that shocks the system back into full recession.  The harvest time is a short window, unless the QE bs starts paying major dividends soon, the chances of a fulcrum event grows.

Notice Bernanke and Obama's rhetoric becomes less and less effective every day.  That creates a very fragile psyche which will take less and less of an event to turn the public to a severly negative bias.  Once that happens, the government(s) propaganda will no longer have an effect. Obama and Fed are trying to keep Europe afloat until they can make the US intentionally less competitive as that is the only way Europe gets out of it's mess.  But now Japan and Argentina are racing toward tipping points; NKorea is being NKorea, and the middle east is being the middle east again....their simply are not enough resources at Obama's disposal to keep it all under control. He thinks he can keep it under control until the 2014 mid terms and that is the goal. If he does, he's looking for carte blanche to really implement his socialist doctrine, if he doesn't it's going to be 2010 all over again.

thismarketisrigged's picture

why the fuck are we not down triple fucking digits?


why the fuck are the financials, the main sector that should be effected by slow gdp, etc, down slightly at best?


this is so fucking retarded, i cant take it anymore. what the fuck kind of news do we need to have a crash?


stock are so fucking overbought, every fucking country is fucking contracting, yet the markets continue to go green, or slightly red when they should be dramatically red. fuck u obama, telling the american ppl housing and the markets are rebounding u fucking asshole, things are getting worse u fucking douchebag, stop misleading the american people u douchebag.

Hohum's picture


OK, it's rigged.  Why don't you make some money off it?

thismarketisrigged's picture

@hohum, the reason i wont put money in this market is because i have missed the run and i would rather wait for the big time crash that is inevitable and buy stocks at a 50 plus percent discount, then overpay for stocks at these prices.


this can not go on for much longer, every bubble bursts eventually and this one will be fun to watch when it happens. 

Herkimer Jerkimer's picture




If I could give you a hundred thumbs up, I would!


Thank you for having the melt down that I would have had, if you wouldn't have.


I just can't take it anymore.


And all the sheeple, just go'in with the flow.



bk1037's picture

Anyone who puts a lot of stock in these politically motivated statistics is naive. Yes, it is interesting however that they aren'y even hiding estimates for some states, makes me wonder how many estimates have been employed in the past. This whole exercise begs the question, if the statistics can not be relied upon, then why the hell do they get published week after week? Seriously, is this a broken paradigm or what? Why do the same incredible crap over and over?