Santelli: "In This Day And Age, Being A Trader Is Downright Impossible"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With central banks sponsoring their own (and each other's) bond markets, and every financial entity owning its own and each other's bonds, Santelli pops his lid over the Pollyanna business leaders (like Bob Lutz - proclaiming GM's European business is troughing because Goldman Sachs is buying European bonds) are pointing to market-based bond prices as indicative of optimism and that economically the worst (must) be over. "Forget the wall of worry, this is the wall of weakness", Rick rants, and the interconnectedness of global markets now means if Goldman is right (as we noted yesterday) that Treasuries are 200bps rich then how does that reconcile with growth that is just bumbling along as evidenced with today's GDP prints from around the world (and surging unemployment). Just what is the Fed going to do to save the world this time? - buy $160bn more per month if we see global weakness restart? How do traders react to slowing global growth? Buy Treasuries? Indeed, the good is bad but bad is better meme seems back and being a trader is, as Rick notes, nigh on impossible.

 

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Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:18 | 3244546 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Perfect example of a class warfare pawn! 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:12 | 3243828 PUD
PUD's picture

WHY SHOULD ANYONE BE A "TRADER" IT SERVES NO USEFUL PURPOSE. JUST ENABLES THE GAMBLING MENTALITY THAT IS RIFE IN THIS STUPID NATION

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:14 | 3244305 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

You need to study the evolution of markets during the past 30 years. It was traders that brought spreads from $0.50 or $0.25 to $0.01 - and for a while even less. Not to mention creating new exchanges (which eventually were gobbled up by the whales).

Traders also provide liquidity, often not allowing the Market Maker or Specialist to fuck-over the public (directly or through funds) .... at least not as much as they used to, or would like to.

If you were to study the market mechanisms, you'd understand that trading financial vehicles is no different than dealing in any other products. Retailers hold inventory longer and make larger profits for the risk exposure, wholesalers deal in tighter spreads and faster inventory roll-over.

As for "gambling" define it please.

If you are a business man, you are more of a gambler by signing a 1,2,3,5 year lease, or hiring some employee even after doing a half decent background check, as you are responsible for the full extent of the lease just as you are responsible for the actions of your employee. On the other-hand, as a trader, I can - and have - changed my mind seconds after entering the order, the result being a flat cancellation at zero cost, or liquidation either with minimal losses (few bucks) or even at a profit. When entering a trade, the smart ones gauge the risk/reward just as "investors" except we use different time-frames and criteria. Choosing your mate is a gamble, deciding to have children is a gamble, so educate yourself before trashing a subject. A true gamble is placing a bet on three lemons across, or on red 4 (sorry, I do not gamble so if I am incorrect on the Roulette tis cuz I never played it .... Vegas only got me for half a roll of nickels I found on top of a slot machine ... not my cup of java).

As for the nation going to shit, is not gambling, but lack of education and balls to take on the corrupt politicians who find gambling as the answer to all problems, then divert the revenues into the pockets of their masters.

But then, I am absolutely certain you knew all of these details ..... just as you know COMPUTER ETIQUETTE AND TYPING AN ENTIRE MESSAGE WITH CAPS ON IS A NO-NO !!!!

Having an opinion is one thing, not having a clue what you are TALKING ABOUT is another. Financial markets are clearly not your strong point.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 23:06 | 3245318 SmackDaddy
SmackDaddy's picture

You're fucking retarded.  The traders didnt narrow spreads.  The IT guys did.

And no, trading is no different than a slot machine.  And just as productive. 

Fri, 02/15/2013 - 02:05 | 3245583 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

"You're fucking retarded.  The traders didnt narrow spreads.  The IT guys did."

Noob, you must have been looking in the mirror when replying to my post. A bad habit. Get your fucking facts straight, then we'll chat.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:12 | 3243830 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'd say just BTFD Rick but there isn't even a FD any longer to buy.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:24 | 3243858 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Respectfully disagreeing with you here. Gold and silver have been monkey hammered non-stop this week. I just exchanged more TP this morning for more of the shiny barbaric relics,  and I couldn't be happier.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:59 | 3244233 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

It is difficult to call the "opportunities" you speak of "dips" - but they are.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:48 | 3244448 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

. . . more like BTFF - Buy The Fucking Flatline (?)  

Or, perhaps GTFS:  Goose the Fucking Shorts, as it seems no matter where we end the day, the topmost pivot point gets licked once or twice (at least for the Russell 2K, the index I focus on.)

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:14 | 3243833 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

It is only "impossible" if you are not well-connected enough to be  privy to when and where the next intervention is going to take place. In other words, if you are a "non-muppet".

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:17 | 3243843 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wah, wah, wah,  fuck you, another fiat whore crying about how rough life is, fuck off...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:24 | 3243856 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's tragic to see that eveyone's DREAM of retiring at the age of 30 ~ & spending the rest of their life shanking balls 'on the DRIVING RANGE' with a laptop PC by their side, 'pattern recognition software', & 200 free trades will not come to fruition...

~~~

Can I interest you in a job as a WALMART greeter?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:25 | 3243864 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That which cannot be sustained, won't be. 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:23 | 3243855 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Thanks Rick and Tyler AND the ZHer's. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one out  here.

 

Now. Rick looks like he wants to kick some ass lately. Some keynesian neo-marxist socialist ass that is. Lets throw Krugman,Geithner and Bernanke into the pit with Rick. I know! It would totally be an unfair fight. That is why we would tie one of Ricks arms behind his back!

 

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:24 | 3243862 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Are they really going to nudge the S&P up 1 point a day from here on out? That is the plan?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:36 | 3243882 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

god willing, with lots and lots of churn and rotation, looks like the monkey method will serve you well

 

PS- isnt it cute that they keep Santelli on tv? when your rants make it to ZH on the daily, your 15 minutes of novelty factor are nearly up...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:43 | 3243915 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Fonz....Do you remember back before the collapse in 07 how they kept nudging it up a point or two every day. They nudged it up until it touched the old 2000 high.....   then whoosh it sank  faster than a Jim Cramer stock recommendation.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:19 | 3243958 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

yeah but between that and tanks on the streets, we pretty much decided it was better to go back to 2007.

And now for tonights entertainment, I present an 8-year old rapping about cars and expensive cheese:

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh8kLZk548uM6XKnIj

That was the market I got started in by the way doc (06-07), i remember like yesterday going to 100% cash (the reason im still around) just in time.

This time my gut feeling is things are totally different, everybody knows its rigged and would prefer this charade over the process of real change

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:11 | 3243999 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I remember it really well. I feel like I am watching a combo of 07 and 2000 play out.

When you march out Leon Cooperman and he is pitching facebook you have to know you are on the edge of a cliff.

But I don't see the catalyst. No one has any doubt Ben will go to 100 bil a month if he has to. So unlike both those years this time the market has to overthrow a sumo wrestler sitting on their back. I'm not saying it can't happen but it feels different.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:20 | 3244297 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Exactly, all the more reason to try and inflate the aggregate to counter the deflationary retiree population.

Look fonz, this isnt even a ZH insider thing. Just the other day USA Today did a thing on this:

"Recent and near-retirees, the first major cohort of the 401(k) era, do not have nearly enough in retirement savings to even come close to maintaining their current lifestyles."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/02/05/social-security-retirem...

Theres no fucking around here fonz, put yourself in the position of TPTB, you have only a few weapons tp counter this massive deflationary trend,
expanding the market that these 401ks are based on and continue to supplement more and more welfare income (this requires some fine tuning, but that is why we call them central planners, isnt it?)

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 18:26 | 3244589 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

And who exactly buys this inflated aggregate? The younger 401(k) worker? The Hedgie? Talk about a Ponzi scheme. And just because they print a quarterly statement, doesn't mean your 401(k) is funded.

I agree, it's not going to be like 2008. It will be worse because the TPTB have shot their wad. The only thing left is to start shooting the masses.

The real culprit is the Global Progressive Movement or whatever the fuck you want to call it. Governments want to keep the status quo, the power elite are sick of funding disfunctional government so a little quid pro quo is in order. Governments get to kick the can down the road and maintain their lush lifestyles in exchange for a blowoff in equity markets so the elites can rake it in when the pensions panic and chase the return from the blowoff.

Let's see what happens the day NO-BID flashes the news wire for anything.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:21 | 3244335 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah I saw that. A couple of thoughts come to mind. The first is that those 401ks are looking more and more attractive to the feds every day. Secondly their returns are based on funny money. If Ben ever slows down the printing these people will find that they are four years closer to their retirement and in for a rude awakening.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:27 | 3244366 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I call bullshit on Ben the atruist. Take that 4 trillion dollar balance sheet and break it up and send everyone a check. Or better yet credit it towards their own personal debt write down. It will never happen. He will hand that money to the banks and they will issue it as more debt to the sheep. The market may be going up and most of the sheep have missed it.

QE is by the banks, for the banks.

Joey 401(k) can go out back and Dorner himself for all Ben cares.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:32 | 3244395 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Well fonz, I think you are being a bit rash- you know perfectly well why they cant and wont send everybody a check. Printing money doesnt solve anything. Fixing prices kinda postpones it though...

Altruism doesnt really come into it, its either this or the abyss and most people cast their lot with the former. Welfare and a bit of wealth effect is intended for baby boomers who wouldnt stand a chance in a real collapse

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:28 | 3244373 Whiteshadowmovement
Whiteshadowmovement's picture

Im not following on the first point dpc, what do you mean by attractive to the feds exactly?

On the other point, thats why I think as long as you accept the notion that the markets are rigged by the Fed, in part for this very purpose, its unlikely to assume we are due for a repeat of 2008. It depends on how deeply you believe the Fed is in control of markets, but if they are it really is a new paradigm and not history repeating itself

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:33 | 3243887 mattdubz86
mattdubz86's picture

Its 10:30AM where was your gold sell order?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:47 | 3243936 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I know Lutz from my years in Detroit. Great car guy-lousy businessman. Those old time automotive guys are just like govt workers, spend spend spend

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:50 | 3243941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Traders' are whining its hard to trade now? Gee, what a shame....aren't they the same guys who BEGGED Bernank to do all this? Now they dont like it so much?

I recall a quote having something to do with a 'bed' and those who make it must go lie in it.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:57 | 3243965 raki_d
raki_d's picture

I wonder why CNBC hasnt fired Rick Santelli yet ..

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:58 | 3243974 A. Magnus
A. Magnus's picture

It's called 'controlled opposition' for a reason...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 19:22 | 3244805 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

'cuz he is one of two who truly have a clue what drives the markets and have the integrity not to play the ponzi game this fucking administration has been playing via the Fed.

Instead of addressing the economic problems through sound policies, the idiot-in-chief is spending like a drunken sailor, the crooks on the Hill are rubbers stamping the projects for they are too ignorant and/or crooked to do otherwise, and then lob it at the Fed - Ben - to deal with the heap of shit through fiscal engineering which is total bullshit. The Feds job is to keep the vehicle on the road not to draw maps, build roads, design & build autos, and keep the damn thing on the road.

Ben is complicit by not quitting so to spotlight the issues.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 20:21 | 3244946 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

Ben is much more culpable than complicit...when he decided to destroy savers and purchasing power by blowing bubbles and debasing the currency through QEternity.  This just when there are many fixed income retirees and baby boomers on the verge of retirement who are not physically capable of starting over in life.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 21:47 | 3245124 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

Ben is much more culpable than complicit

OK. I'll go with that, if you agree that in addition to demolishing the retirement nest eggs, and thus sending us into the "Brown Cesspool" (aka "the crapper") instead of "On Golden Pond".

Also, this lead to giving a vasectomy to the former 'middle class' by shifting our wealth into the pockets of the already wealthy: the former middle class lacking the $, could no longer participate, and thus compete in purchasing assets ultimately bought by the already wealthy. This allowed the purchases at drastically cheaper prices than otherwise would have, and at much lower carrying costs due to historical lower interest rates. This is also explaining the increasing disparity in earnings and net-worths ....aka class war-fare. That debasing is the root of numerous problems America is facing today, with tricky choices, since what would solve one problem will exasperate another, causing us to choose between bad and worse. Which bring us back to 6-7%, which is the point at which the fireworks should have begun.

IMO, once the crooks on the Hill begun taking apart the American System on wholesale level, the destruction begun. I am speaking of demolishing the manufacturing system which was the 1st to go. Since then, it has been one "system" after another. We have nothing left that is worth as shit. NOTHING. The last to go is the legal system and the Constitution is has been the nation's foundation, on which all else was built. I guess that explains why the thief-in-chief and his team of thieves are so eager to disarm the civilian force, pretty much the last thing standing between them and the spoils.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:56 | 3243968 A. Magnus
A. Magnus's picture

The markets have all been rigged when 'Red Ronnie' Reagan created the Plunge Protection Team in 1987. Where the fuck was Santelli when his hero was turning the US into a Marxist controlled economy? That's like Jews crying about Hitler after the last Nazis died in Paraguay from old age...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:16 | 3244012 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Obamanuts blaming dead Republicans, Obamanuts blaming alive Republicans, Obamanuts blaming...

All Obama has to do to get rid off all the Republicans is sign a Excutive Order making them illegal.

He will never do that though. Without someone to blame he will have to look at Moochelle.....

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:59 | 3243977 jomama
jomama's picture

he seems to be doing alright...?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:08 | 3243995 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Buy now or be priced out forever!  

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:11 | 3244000 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

If you want to know what QE buys you, read this:

http://www.france24.com/en/20130213-everything-table-us-eu-trade-talks-us

Judging by the tone of the article, team USA feels they are dealing from a position of strength.  Remember how things were back in the early days of the EU?  Remember how the EU was going to dictate to the world?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:48 | 3244172 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Just as every other freetrade agreement has resulted in more jobs so this will as well.

We are so fortunate to have leadership in the US and EU that work tirelessly for the common man/woman/transgner/lesbian/gay/pediophile citizens.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:44 | 3244046 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey Santelli, if Al Gore can start some shit ball leftist snake oil TV station and sell it to the Arabs for a net $100 million, this might be your clarion call. Instead of ranting on that piece of shit 24hour infomercial CNBS , you should put some like minded people together put your money where your mouth is , and start your own gig. People might take you a little bit more seriously. Ed

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:25 | 3244050 raki_d
raki_d's picture

What Fed is clearly doing is reflating the deflating economy. They feel 'ouright deflation' compared to 'steady inflation by printing' is more damaging than the latter. Cheapening the debt with rising stock market flooding the banks with cheap money is their agenda. But whats not clear to me is how all this debt accumulated by govt & fed is bad in long run. I read articles that all this printing will be bad in long run - will blow up, sink the ship, cause a panic, meltdown etc etc. Im trying to get a definitive answer how / when: at what point will that happen ? what would be the trigger?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:55 | 3244211 centerline
centerline's picture

There are good articles here on the shadow banking system that is collapsing (deflationary event of course).  The hole it leaves needs to be filled, else the near infinite chain of counterparty exposure takes down the global banking system in a blinding white flash of digital destruction (hyperdeflation).  This hole is being with electronic cash, which for the most part goes nowhere.  But, the big difference is that this cash is tangible.  It can be mobilized and spike velocity.  Just needs a trigger.

Since 2009 or so, I have been comparing it to fueling a rocket.  I wager than hyperinflation already occured, but we did not "feel it" or at least not yet, because it was vented into creative financial instruments.

Now, with the advent of such lunacy as CABs, it is pretty clear that we are heading for a hyper-something event.

In an even larger view, the real subject is our transition into a lower EROEI world on overly complex, intertwined global systems built on perpetual growth which clearly is in conflict with the reality of lower EROEI.  Something is going to give and it isn't EROEI.

By now I think we can all agree that everything including ritual sacrifice of throwing virgins into volcanoes will be done to kick the can a little further.  Based on this, we just waiting for the proverbial straw that broke the camels back (e.g. a black swan).  We will know the trigger and timing only after the event occurs, unfortunately.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:05 | 3244237 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Well you can not have a blow up on a boom fueled by base money. But as soon as the money is spent in real goods the inflation fire is lit up. Right now you had devaluation. How come? Fed pushes currency units in the system, that deleverages the bank but the base money is not used in teh real economy so far. It goes into stocks, bonds, Gold a bit (but later a lot) and in foreign currency and foreign assets.
Since it does not go into the local economy not much local inflation. Inflation seems high in comparison to commodities but it is not because were are using a lot of those, it is just that buying foreign currencies with the new units make the price look higher because the USD is pushed down. As Thomas Tooke said, dearness is money in the end of the consumers, cheapness is money in the hand of the capitalistl. So first maneouvre print a lot of money, that pushes that the currency down in relation to the others, that brings a bit of breathing room for companies competing. Next since you have printed a lot of fire bricks (base money) you need to light up the fire.

That is where the Gov gets into play. The gov does a thing similar to moving the wheels in the opposite direction as would be intuitively warranted when you skid on icy road. The Governmetn INCREASES SPENDING and RAISES minimum wages?

 

Why? REmemebr there is a lot of idle money newly printed, but as long as it stays idle and not lit-up nothign happens. You could print gazillions of new base money, if not used, not inflation. If going only into finanical assets, no inflation.

So Gov spends and jacks up inflation by raising minimum wages. Then the prisoner dilemma is broken. Inflation expectation rises, and company spend on shitty projects (low return) why? Because the other alternative to watch the cash melt because of inflation is worse.

Than the Gov can collect more nominal dollars and inflate upwards in tax revenues. Inflate away has always been the remedy. If inflation rises a lot, lots of nominally higher tax revenues. At that point the Gov can slow down a bit the spending, and remove some fuel from the fire place. Next Fed flattens a bit the curve. But anyway under this situation teh inflation is chronic.

WHEN DOES THE WHOLE SHAM COLLAPSE?

When what the Fed gets in return on its securities on the balance sheet is lower than what it is forced to pay on excess reseverves. At that point there is a cash flow problem because the receipts are lower than expenses. The Fed plugs the hole with newly printed money but that makes inflation worse. That is called hyperinflation. We are years away from that if it will happen ever.

For now PM are going down because the hyperinflationists are disappointed and the general dumb money don´t realize that inflation will go high single digit double digits in years. WHne we cross 5% on the 10 years and inflation at 6%, Gold will be on steroids again

When the curve steepens a lot, Gold spike happens, sell some of your gold and buy calls on short end interest rates.

 

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 20:38 | 3244981 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

"Since it does not go into the local economy not much local inflation. . ."

Your local economy must not have any grocery stores or gas stations.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:46 | 3244160 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

dont worry there is still scope for analagies within humor...get in the mood for friday fun...its going ot be a bad!

http://www.clipjunkie.com/The-Most-Offensive-Jokes-Ever-Part-II-vid13847...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:48 | 3244175 SmackDaddy
SmackDaddy's picture

Re: the headline.  Imagine that, you might have to actually work for a living.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:49 | 3244178 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

I will ask the obvious question no one asks..... how do I become a non muppet and get inside information of when and what the big boys with small brains and government connections are going to do?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 20:05 | 3244913 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

forge your birth certificate, marry someone with a fat ass, get a gang going who can force the pace on the internet...oh and get 5 billion dollars of someone elses money and RUN FOR PREZ...or congress if your consituents dont find out where you actually live.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!