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VIX vs Stocks vs Credit vs Rates

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Starting at around 10amET this morning, the 'markets' began to get a little more odd than normal. The glimpses we got overnight are playing out in FX, Treasury, and credit markets - i.e. they are trading in a notably risk-off mode, recognizing the doubt over economic recovery and perhaps even concerns at the sequester. However, while it may not come as a huge surprise to many, equities have no fear and as bond yields test the day's lows, S&P 500 futures test the day's highs... recoupling on the week. All is well...

 

 

and summing it all up - Capital Context's ETF Arb (left) and cross-asset-class CONTEXT model indiate just how divergent today's unreality is...

 

Though we do note that Treasuries and stocks are merely recoupling today on the week...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:41 | 3243913 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

This market cares not for your charts and graphs, models and ES divergence.... it says 1 thing loud and clear to all: BTFD

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:49 | 3243939 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Honestly -- if shorted ES every time CapContext's ETF Arb said it was rich, I'd be waiting for Little Dorrit to bring my soup to Marshalsea....

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:53 | 3243954 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Hey, thanks to TD for the earlier article on Goldman's SELL ratings and HNZ. I noticed in their chart they also have a SELL on GIS.  Whoooooaahh, up 3% today to an ALL-TIME high. 

Props to the TD research department!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIS&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p84379016075

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:59 | 3243976 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

For the last month I have shorted it and now I qaulify for the Obama phone.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:48 | 3243942 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I have a confession to make.

The market's behavior today is all my fault.

I finally decided that the Bernank is right, and started biding on SPY.  I'm using every order type available; Hide 'n Slide, hidden, pegged, etc.  Once I started doing that, SPY took off.  I'm gonna get real rich and move to the Caymans.

I feel so much better now that I've joined the dark side.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:44 | 3243927 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Looks normal to me

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:49 | 3243943 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Same here, looks perfectly fine to me....

except I had part of my brain removed last week and lost 80% of my vision after some drone took me out for bringing a plastic bb gun to my high school reunion.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:47 | 3243937 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Opa!

 

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:53 | 3243957 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Bunga Bunga?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:55 | 3243963 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

another fucking day, another fucking Fed dick up the ass of the middle fucking class.

 

Fuck you Bernanke and your wall street fucking dick sucking puppets.  fuck off fuckers.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 15:59 | 3243979 Crispy
Crispy's picture

SPX is fixing to get its clock cleaned in a major way. Strap in...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:36 | 3244090 Freddie
Freddie's picture

How do you figure?  The Fed/Bernank/Obummer will not allow markets to go down.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:01 | 3243982 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

No worry, 10Y and S&P just playing chicken.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:06 | 3243991 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

aside from the obvious how this market is extremely blatanly rigged, is it just me, or is it a very boring market?

 

i mean since the summer, how many fucking flat days have we had?

 

the excuse in the summer was that it was light volume because many people take vacation, ok fine. however since labor day, when the ' unofficial end of the summer'' is over, and we have seen so many light volume flat days since.

 

after that, the excuses became that investors wanted certanty, such as who was going to be president, etc, but even after that, aside from a few weeks of selling, its been so flat and lame.

 

why the fuck cant these mother fuckers get the fuck out of the market, let it run on its own, and maybe, just maybe, although it will be painful for a few years ( not like its enjoyable now or anything) but in the long run, we would have a real recovery, and volume will pick up because investors will feel good again. with this qe shit by the fed, no fucking way i am putting money into this market.

 

all u need to do is take a look at a stock like aapl. how the fuck is aapl everyday whether the market is up a ton or down, its always flat? this is the worlds most valuable company and it is as flat as ever

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:47 | 3244163 topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

"""""""""""""""why the fuck cant these mother fuckers get the fuck out of the market, let it run on its own, and maybe, just maybe, although it will be painful for a few years ( not like its enjoyable now or anything) but in the long run, we would have a real recovery"""""""""""""""

because since they have the ability to manage the Direction, Hit a pre-determined point move 'On the Nose' in any Index or Asset Class, they keep making Bazillions, and in their own accounts, scattered around the globe under various names and/or numbers

as long as they keep getting away with this outright, blatant, in your face, "yes we're doing it and you can't stop us" attitude, don't expect any change

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:20 | 3244022 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Concerns Raised over Fed Distortions, or How do they Bailout a Bailout

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1184021-concerns-raised-over-fed-distort...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:24 | 3244045 dcb
dcb's picture

glad you did a post on it, because it's one of the most fucked up days I've seen. of course there will be no invesstigation on a day like todayy where there should.

I also wish bernenke realized a big reason I never bought into this market w2as because treasurues weren't buying into it (sellinf off).

his buying (if you beleive it) is the reason I didn't get a proper sell signal into stocks).

although I wonder where the market would be without his fixing the market.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:27 | 3244055 raki_d
raki_d's picture

What Fed is clearly doing is reflating the deflating economy. They feel 'ouright deflation' compared to 'steady inflation by printing' is more damaging than the latter. Cheapening the debt with rising stock market flooding the banks with cheap money is their agenda. But whats not clear to me is how all this debt accumulated by govt & fed is bad in long run. I read articles that all this printing will be bad in long run - will blow up, sink the ship, cause a panic, meltdown etc etc. Im trying to get a definitive answer how / when: at what point will that happen ? what would be the trigger?

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:40 | 3244121 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

We are getting close to the point where all the ZH-ers capitulate and dump their "stacks" and go long NFLX and BB and start wearing brand new "DOW 15,000" hats. At that point, I will start shorting this pig with Granny's savings...

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:23 | 3244344 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

I'm already there.  On MOnday, sold my GLD, AU and PTM which was half my portfolio and bought Netflix, Facebook, Groupon, Apple and Linked-in.  Up on the week so far!

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:46 | 3244146 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Considering how bad the recent GDP prints were for EU nations and the USA (the two largest economies in the world), it makes PERFECT sense that the US markets show resilience... since there is no market.  All that matters is that Chairsatan prints.

How long before Chairsatan announces the Fed will simply buy every distressed asset on Earth?  Why not.  How much more FUBAR can it get?

FUBAR.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 16:57 | 3244228 Confundido
Confundido's picture

They closed all the exits...There is nowhere to escape to from the fiat world. Ask the gold bugs if you don't believe me.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:20 | 3244330 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     The GBP is the clear winner in the currency wars this week. The GBP has been monkey hammered down against everything.

  It's down aprox. 400pips against the usd, 440pips against the yen, 400pips against the aud, just under 300pips against the eur, and we have a day of trading to go. Golf claps for the stealth debasing across the pond.

Thu, 02/14/2013 - 17:34 | 3244401 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

I'm going back to bed.

Today was the oddest yet.Which is the dream ?

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