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Gold At $1600, Recoupling With Stocks Post QE2
The media appears to be gorging on the 2% drop today in Gold and 11% drop in the last 4 months. Gold's demise today appears triggered by JPY's dump at around 8amET - though longer-term, it appears gold and stocks are recoupling in the reflation trade from around the start of QE2. At $1600, gold is back at August 2012 levels but +134% from the 2008 Lehman 'event'.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Very believable given the players involved and the no-rules-market of commodity futures.
This trend will continue until buyers begin taking delivery. It's really just that simple...
Caputulation time,give up your bullion and we will
gladly be buying with our freshly printed fiat shit.
Not me,I am buying all of the discounts.
Fck the banksters.
When we get to $1400, I'ma send a card to Goldman Sachs, JPM and CitiBank telling them:
Dear Sirs,
Though you suck in most every way, and will surely end manipulation soon, I'd like to thank you for the recent price drops in metals. I hope your next prostitute has only herpes, and when you get to hell, someone takes a cooling piss on you.
kindest regards,
J6P
I'm not following your logic as to why you are waiting...
mayhem, 'cause at $1400 paper I'll actually be able to buy physical at around $1500.
I was more wondering why you were waiting to send the card. 8D
They are nice group of whores (or is that their political minions, I'm thinking of?), aren't they. Maybe I will send cards ! :)
Let 'em know we're still out here, and we've figured them out. We're still makin' your lattes, and cleaning the lexus, fixing the plumbing and tending your children, to fighting your wars. There are alot of us, and we're catching onto you sly bastards! We get why you make so much "money", bash that barbarous gold, bitchez!
Global Deflationary depression which is getting worse by the day. It will take much mohr then $85 billion a month to reverse it. That's why Japan, Venezuela, Argentia, etc are getting desperate and devaluing their currencies sooner rather then later. The USA needs to consider either printing faster or in the middle of a Friday night, when everyone is fast asleep, announce a 30% devaluation of the dollar.
Larry Summers said similar in 2009. he was right, I'm afraid. Except for a handful of people here and there (mostly on Wall Street), daily life is worse and getting worser.
I know I'll get lots of feedback about this but that's what we need since there is no structural growth.
Here's my feedback...why did you green arrow your own post so quickly?
If Larry Summers was right-- it would be worth remembering cause it sure as hell doesn't happen often!
My target is between 30% and 50% devaluation for major currencies. This means that outstanding debts are less and subsequently the wealth on the other side of the balance sheet drops as well UNLESS that wealth is protected in gold or silver (and other tangible assets).
Stocks will not jump 30% to 50% the day after a currency devaluation, metal prices will. There's the inflation they want.
Currency wars are being discussed openly now on all channels. We're already two years into it and the noose is getting tighter.
So what happens to gold if the Fed takes their foot off of the Brent pedal?
Their command to you is simple: buy AMZN and HLF, not physcial gold and silver. This is all well known. Will you obey?
{crickets}
No.
THe unusually large volumes in GLD and SLV suggest a bottom may be near.
I am going to rub one out to Blythe tonight.
"I am going to rub one out to Blythe tonight." Even without her show of force today, I would do nasty things with Blythe, in a heartbeat!(If I could get permission from the wife, alas, doubtful. And no shit talkin' unless you're single, about my post. EVERY married man has simply forward hedged on return pussy, every married man!)
Just bought a coin. The premium is higher than it was about a year ago, and the dealer says that they are finding it difficult to get the coins they need. They will pay about 2% above spot if you want to sell. Charge about 6% above for you to buy.
Those premiums are a proxy for the physical-paper spread.
had 15 double eagles offered at 2% over melt. trusted source. oh well no dry powder left had to pass.
Provident, OPM gold bars $19.95 premium over spot all day long. Made in USA by the way.
Fuck the high premiums it all melts the same.
Perhaps this is beginning of the leased German Gold, that Fekete alluded to, making its long tortuous 7 year journey home. ;)
Western Central Banks are still feeding the beast apparently.
"One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!
NOTHING!" (Another)
Cause golds over price. Its shiny, very shiny. How much is shiny worth?
Gold is finite. Digits are infinite. You cannot keystroke gold. You cannot print 85 Billion in gold a month. Here, read this dipshit.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461159/Is_the_Dollar_Dying_Why_US_Currency_Is_... Google "Soviet Union currency" and see what you find.
Rebel, noted in the article:"Bove uses several metrics to make his point, focusing on the dollar as a percentage of total world money supply.That total has plunged from nearly 90 percent in 1952 to closer to 15 percent now. He also notes that the Chinese yuan, the yen and the euro each have a greater share of that total."
Fuckin' Zimbabwe dollars alone ("100 Trillion" notes!) could acccount for this decline in the last few years! Though I agree dollah has some probs, that argument is typical MSNBS stuff. Nonetheless, thx for the link.
The Germans must have sent another letter encouraging the FED to give them their gold back.
...and yet gas prices are at all time highs...Guess they need to extract every last dime of the middle class... if the tax hike didn't allready get it. Otherwise they might try to buy Silver Eagles with it.
WHY ON EARTH WOULD GOLD AND THE S&P NEED TO GET THE SAME PERFORMANCE OUT OF FREE MONEY PRINTING??...
LONG STORY SHORT : HENCE A BUY/SELL SIGNAL ON GOLD/S&P NEAR THE CROSSING OF THOSE 2 LINES THAT SHOULD DEFINITELY RATHER BE DIVERGING...
.....Free Money Capitolism, the path to Big Banker prosperity.
I would suspect the Chinese will be buying when they are back next week...
1600 will be tough to break, and anything below will be great for additions to swing trades
GDXJ new all time low ( $17.37 old low ) ... It opened when gold was round $1100 oz in late 2009.... GDX at $40 today same "smell" of $1100 oz gold.
Either gold is expensive or gold stocks are cheap ...... according to this "Market".
The future just isn't what it used to be. It's clear the system can kick the can far beyond what any individual can handle. Remember in the long run .........
Interesting, this last article by Jim Willie
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/willie020713.html
WE'VE been HERE before dudes. Bargains don't happen like this everyday. Watch the close of Au & Ag, the Chinks and Ruskies will be divin in.
we've seen this before, guys and gals. just keep buying at a discount. because when this thing impodes - as it most certainly will at some point - but not until that moment - only then the true value of the PMs will no longer be able to be manipulated.
The gold attack has a direct correlation with the DOW and S&P ramps stalling after breaking or approaching "new highs". That huge ass fiat snowball they keep rolling uphill is getting more massive by the day as is the shitpile the global lying kleptocrats keep trying to shovel onto unsuspecting masses. The little fiat that couldn't sharted on the G20s and nobody wants to clean the mess.
Shovel faster motherfuckers! (I would paraphrase Long Soup Line but I don't want to ruin my daily entertainment)
from Credit Suisse today:
Quarterly 13F filings published yesterday showed the withdrawal of several high profile institutional investors from the largest physical gold ETF. That has added to the increasingly bearish sentiment around gold in our view. Meanwhile, those factors we had thought would provide some support to the gold market in 1H have, to date, generally disappointed.
In the short term we would expect there to be a pick-up in physical demand below $1,600 of sufficient size to generate a modest bounce away from the first support level around $1,584. But the downside risks are obvious and it is clear to us that this is a market in which rallies should be sold.
Come on guys....give up....return your gold and the pain will stop.
Anyone have a gander at what this is about?
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/major-powers-plan-to-offer-to-ease-sanctions-on-trade-in-gold-and-other-precious-metals-at-february-26th-iran-nuclear-talks-according-to-western-officials-15-02-2013
Beuller? Anyone?
:?
Foot in the door, connected to the above linked article by J Willie?
<---Gold 1950 sooner than later
<---Gold 1350 sooner than later
You changed it to 1350 from 1250.
Either way though, gold has solid support at 1550. That is where the bottom of the last shoulder and the head tasted during the inverse head and shoulders gold formed last year.
Also, the expansion of debt/credit continues. This will continue to debase the value of the fiat currency. This will increase all asset prices.
I thought 1250 was a little low....I wanted a nice midpoint. I personally think it will muddle along between 1500-1700 for a while. I cannot see it going super low as the 85 billion a month of MBS and other shit will have to play out somewhere. I ultimately see gold going much higher long term and welcome a short term lower price so I can but more. My PMs are for decades down the road and in the "unlikely event" of a currency crisis.
I see the charts having gold consolidating in this price range until April and silver until May. Then there will be a break, and since I like gold I think it will be to the upside.
gold bears always get a hard on when it plods down, but ultimately, humna nature comes back in to buy.....I agree with you.
Does anybody know the real reason why gold is collapsing?
Risk-off is coming big-time,
where is the money going? more bonds?
Gold is a risk off trade, Orly. Gold bottomed before equity bottomed during the last crash and it began climbing even though the bond market and banking system had not been stabolized.
It was not stabolized by TARP, it was "stabolized" when the Central Banks began devaluing the currency ad infinum.
Fiat is not a risk off trade when the Central Banks have a unilateral agreement to print and devalue the fiat. Bonds are not a risk off trade because of this. Stocks are not a risk off trade either.
Gold is the only risk off trade Orly.
Bernanke found a unicorn that we will ride to financial recovery and the only man standing in his way of bringing the unicorn out of the magical unicorn cave, Shirakawa - the man that bought and leveraged ETFs on his Central Bank balance sheet for years - is stepping down.
There can be only one, and Bernanke will ride the unicorn to the highlands and bring forth his global domination!
[cough]
I mean recovery. Bernanke will bring forth global recovery.
velocity of money and outlook for interest rate being less negative. or disinflation, g-20 gifting china low buck baubles, doesn't matter. holding gold is a final desperate fallback nothing more. better to have it and not need it blah blah blah.
All of the macro stuff aside. It's simple. GLD opened below its 100 week moving average and is on pace to close under it for the first time since December 2008. Look for support around 150, at best. Ultimately GLD goes a lot lower from here. I made money buying puts this week and will keep buying puts until it closes back above the 100 week SMA.
Fine, the short term technicals aren't great. But medium and long term tech says gold will be fine. Add the fundamental nature of the global fiat money debt/credit system and maybe gold has a 5% to 10% downside, but it has an upside that is infinite.
I just BTFD! (Going out on the boat Tuesday, wish me luck!)
I think that MDB is on to something........ I noticed some weanies in with my beans today !!
Ask anyone in Venezuela if they would rather have Venezuelan currency or gold. When the time comes, the move up in gold will be much sharper than this small dip - but you won't benefit if you don't own gold.
The G-20 meeting where the big topic is currency wars....and how not to say it in public.......and gold and silver getting hit hard.....lets maybe they are worried that another stong backed currency will kill theirs.....it will...that is why they are taking it down....I think China will turn on the spigots come Monday.....they might even dump some of their treasuries to buy gold and silver...I know I would if I was them....
Secondly its expire day...so I also think they cannot make the deliveries...so tank it they do....I can only hope the contracts ask for delivery...
To any of your short timers out there that simply want to "trade" gold, good luck as in the end, TPTB are the only parties of any relevance so if you can time with them and make a buck, well done. As for the arguement that a real recovery is in place and all of the problems within the economy have somehow been magically fixed over the past five years, well I'm not sure if the people who are preaching this live in a state that has legalized weed, are paid pupets of their masters in Washington and Wall Street, are still bitter from missing the last run in PMs, or simply don't understand how to read financial statements.
In my view, the bull market in gold that occured from the early 2000's through 2011 was primarily based in CB actions designed to save the financial system from total collapse. This did not fix the problem but rather simply transferred large amounts of bad debts from one source (i.e., the banks) to another (i.e., the CBs). Of course the CBs are parties that provide (and I use this term with caution) currency to the markets which remember, is just another form of debt (as currency is an obligation on the right side of the CBs balance sheet which is a liability that is supported by some type of asset which in this case is nothing more than holdings of toxic MBS and soverign debt). So logic would hold that if the assets are worthless, the liabilities or in this case the currency, is not worth nearly as much as the stated value as it does not have a claim against a valid asset.
No, what we have now in the PM markets is simply a volcano just clearing her throat getting ready for the big erruption which will plain and simple be failed fiat currencies. Although a temporary lull or sense of calm may take hold for a short period that could last for two to four years, in the end, the massive debt problem will simply not be resolved in any reasonable manner and eventually the weight of the debt will cause the system to implode. Simple law of economics as when the market finally realizes that debt cannot be repaid, it will price it accordingly creating a debt crisis and then a banking crisis (as the banks hold all of the debt including the CBs) and then a currency crisis.
So for all of you PM investors, that have been in PMs since the early 2000's (this is when I entered), the current price action has been witnessed numerous times before and will most likely continue to be realized over the near term as the first lag of the PM bull market ends (based on CB actions) and the second phase builds it legs (based on currency failures). So for all of you that are traders, good luck and for all of you that are investors, the next 12 months should offer a great entry point to build your insurance portfolio against the coming debt collapse.
Well said. I can live with with my other investments and low return savings, even if gold stays flat or drops a bit -- as long as the US Dollar retains some global buying power. The only fear I have is what you have stated - what will heppen when the first fiat currency goes belly up and triggers a massive wave of defaults and bankruptcies. When that time comes, do you really want to own any government's bonds or any equities? When that time comes, I want to already have enough gold sitting beneath a thing coating of dust.
I'm mainly an investor in physical and global PM producers such as ABX, Gold Corp, Newmont, and Freeport. Just dumped anything that resembled or is tied to government debt as there's just no way to make money here. So while I undertand your concerns with equities, I tend to invest in equities that are more "real" in nature than "fake". As for real, base energy, PMs, and food companies (too bad I missed the Heinz opportunity but then again, I'm not on Uncle Warren's payroll), all with global operations. Also like businesses with strong IP or content. I also like COP, a global diversified energy company with a solid yield. My point is that with real assets of value supporting a company's equity price, the damage with a fiat currency implossion should be managable.
As for the fakes, well there are plenty of technology companies that fall into this classification (e.g., Groupon, Netflix, etc.) that really don't have much IP and will fall prey to commoditization of their markets. Also, the financial industry is full of land minds as I still don't think they have any idea as what is on their balance sheet and even if they do, how to value it (speaking about derivatives here). Just don't have much interest in this market segment but I have no doubt Wall Street will pump and dump this group to the public in the coming year.
So my real fears are two-fold. First is with the PM companies as if all hell breaks loose with a Fiat currency implossion, these companies could quickly be nationalized. Second, is the when associated with a Fiat currency failure. When the Arab Spring started, a number of people point to an impoverished individual who set himself on fire (either in Tunisia or Algeria I believe). Just this one rather insignificant event started an entire revolution. Same concern with a potential currency crisis as even a small event, off most peoples radars could start a waterfall of events that trigger a much larger scale financial crisis. Given how leveraged the system is, how little assets are really available to support massive debt levels, and basically how corrupt the system has become, even the smallest of events need to be watched closely.
That's the real problem as if a stampede were to start from just a single gun shot, the damage and carnage will be uncontrollable as everyone attempts to exit at the same time.
same price as it was in July 0f 2011. coming uo on 2 years of a flat return
Its stock options expiry on the GLD and SLV today. Check out all the February 16th Calls that got thrown out today. I dont think the hammer is done as in a week and a half we have the expiration on the Comex contracts..................remember the December options calling for delivery ?
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2.aspx?symbol=gld&selected=gld&qm_page=5518&qm_symbol=GLD
This is EXACTLY the kind of thing you would expect to see in a world dominated by unlimited free money and highly leveraged speculating banks. It's obvious that someone placed a big bet on gold going down, and they are being relentless in driving down the price in order to make their bets pay off. Hang tough, because now the upside bets can be placed just as cheaply, and just as leverageed, and soon the unlimited HOT MONEY will flow that way.
Gold is WAY undervalued right now, but even today one can see a microcosm of what it does. It preserves purchasing power, and usually enhances it, too. Today it did the former as crude is way down, too. So your gold coin is still worth the same # of gallons of gas. Corn has been selling off along with gold, coffee, too.
I hate all the gold/silver justification and group therapy. It's embarrassing. If you think this is a buying op then just buy it and be happy.
cmon, get some more washed up actors pimping it, like the reverse mortgages.
Jump Da Gold Shark, Fonzi, whats in your safe...and and and....ITS GONE.http://youtu.be/4TlPo0yCSa4
Once again, this time, it is NOT JPM "dumping." It is JPM COVERING in mammoth fashion.
JPM understands all too well that emerging into the open as CDE's main advisor on the Orko acquisition, while it is widely known JPM and its surrogates have held pretty much the entire CDE Short position - which has more than halved the past 4 weeks! - is not merely a dangerous game, it is a highly unethical and illegal game, which could cause years of scandal and government hearings if not reversed quickly.
So it WILL be!
To be frank, I'm surprised they didn't allow follow up from yesterday in the PM stocks, which are now at 2,000 year lows - or thereabouts - compared to the underlying metals prices.
GG had a perfectly fine earnings report, and the spectacle of it being taken down a dollar on it, while the likes of Angie's List - what do they have? 3 emplyees? being taken up 25 percent or whatever after theirs - Well, High Farce is High Farce.
As I have said before, 99.9999999999 or more percent of the world's people - and possibly as high a percentage of active market participants - do not want the world wrenched back to those halcyon days of 1997, when Hong Kong was still part of the UK and Dollah! Dollah! Dollah! was still the tool of The Empire.
And despite the efforts of an entire pod of Whales, sooner or later - hopefully very, very sooner - everyone else on earth will get their way.
Repost from Bloomberg's headline article on Gold:
Gold Bears may spout whatever propaganda they wish to spout for whatever reason they wish to spout it.
But Gold hasn't functioned as a "safe haven" at all since the Great Crash of 2008, because Gold-haters themselves have not allowed it to.
"Safe havens" tend to trade against Risk Assets. And anyone with eyes and a brain realizes that Gold has traded WITH, not against, every other Risk Asset, for quite a few years now.
This makes perfect sense to Gold Bulls - not "Bugs" - because we realize that everywhere in the world except the Gold-hating US and UK, Gold is now perceived correctly as a GROWTH sector.
Gold represents the inexorable rise of a true Bourgeoisie, a consuming Middle Class, in the approximately one-half of the planet which has not had one previously.
That one-half of the planet coincides with those countries and regions which have loved, respected, and coveted the Monetary Metals - Gold and Silver both - since the beginning of recorded human history: China, India, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
Gold and Silver should, indeed, be considered on the same footing as every other kind of desired product a rising new Bourgeoisie wants to purchase or consume: appliances, home furnishings, automobiles, apparel, electronics.
But Gold and Silver are Growth markets in another important sense, of course - one which Progressives, as well as Conservatives and Centrists, who value a fairer, more equitable world should be educated now to appreciate:
Gold - and Silver - are prime movers in the New World Currency Regime just beginning, in which the Central Banks and other world depositories of Wealth are diversifying their holdings away from any one dominant "Empire" or "Colonial" currency towards baskets of currencies and other assets better representing the realities of world growth and world trade.
If you support a vibrant, growing, more just world, you should support Gold, not scorn it.
And also - Wink Wink Nod Nod - read comments from EU leaders on how damaging it would be if the US were the only major power to opt out of a gradually implemented worldwide Tobin Tax.
Also remember that the newly launched Chinese Gold and Silver ETFs are going to be strict about having real bullion - not tungsten, tin, or chocolate candy in Gold leaf - back them up.
Da Boyz see - and have already acknowledged - the Writing on the Wall Street.
It is they - not we - who need to "capitulate" en masse.
Venerable One - this time we are in agreement, I too was disappointed that the gold Stocks did not continue the rebound that Barrick and GG displayed. Coincidence? Perhaps - Maybe the Cartel wanted to squash the momentum before it got started. Certainly you have seen what happens when these gold stock get momentum behind them.
I'm excited and curious to see the Chinese response on Monday and Tuesday- will they go in and buy? India? Turkey? Russia? or will they let it sink and buy it cheaper.
I think we get a little rebound to about $1620 or so on Tuesday - but from there it looks like a short. IT really needs to get above 1650 to breathe a bit.
Oh the Irony that CHINA of all countries is going to have REAL PHYSICAL GOLD behind their ETF's ....
When do these come out btw?
Cheers
That you, Herr Faber?
Well - on the bright side, I am sometimes in the depths of despondency and sometimes in the white heat of anger. In either case, it is generally a Buy! Buy! Buy! And this time, BOTH are true.
On the doom side, they truly hate me now, to the point they want me literally dead.
OK - send Ninjas. Send Cramer. I am at a Bobby McGee moment, where I feel I - and probably many, many others - have "nothing left to lose," so let us fight the Bleepity-Bleeps with our rapier pens, sometmes stronger than their algorithmic swords.
Otherise, we will all just live on our collective beach in the Caribbean, existing forevermore on cheap rum and slug fritters.
We understand life. They are 23 - and don't.
After building up a respectable physical stack of Au and Ag i have started building up positions in junior miners. I know they're extremely risky but all i need is for 1 explorer to go nuts during the mania stage and i'll be happy. 100K shares of 100 miners means i'll have a small shot of getting ridiculously lucky. I won't be unwinding until after 2015 so i'm not in any rush. I'm posting this comment for historical purposes. Hopefully zerohedge will survive until 2015 so i can look back and see how clever i was in 2013.
Why not just buy GDXJ?
Why can't the USA just export inflation by force?
Invade a country, actually make them happy to see you to give the CIA a local base to operate and then start to destabilize the surrounding countries to get them on greenbacks- because everyone is seeing how happy and well the invaded neighbour is doing. And start to “export” that inflation to those countries, like a carry trade with an ar-15. Become the best of the worst.
Or do the same thing less the invasion, with Columbia and Venezuela and Bolivia, with a Argentina thrown in for good measure. As long as you get new players in the game its ok. Hell throw a leaf to Chavaz, give him some dictator crack dollars to get him started, its not like he doesnt hit all the points for a good "ally" like all the other dictators that 'merican presidents shook hands with. (and he actually has real shit to trade, gold and oil)
Like casinos that give you a couple chips to play with, even offer free lessons to their customers at the hotels. They know they get it all back plus more at the end of the day.
Knuckle bump pic with dictator obama and dictator chavez.
History, Six centuries is so 400B.C.,
Brand, Please, so 1980,
Scarcity, no, lots of things are scarce.
The one truly different thing is that the stock of gold , barring some unforseen tech revolution, is very difficult to increase by more than a few percent a year, and this trend has been with us for a very long time.
The geometric growth in technology has been matched by the geometric size of the imaginary gold cube that signifies the total above ground stock.
The idiot savants who populate Wall Street tried to use oil as money in 2008 and discovered very quickly that it's above ground stock can grow very fast when the price rises.
Not so gold. atleast until some cheap way to mine it or filter it out of seawater, or land an asteroid of it comes into play. always a risk, but a very low compared to the risks associated with other means of storing wealth.
Yes, it's sacrilege, heresy, and blasphemy all rolled together, but does it ever occur to those whose faith rests in gold and silver that they might be wrong? Does it ever cross the mind that there is no equation, no inherent law in a market that says if this, then this, for if there was, everyone would have figured it out and everyone would be enormously wealthy? Do those who champion gold and silver ever step back and try to assess dispassionately what "money" really is, rather than just endlessly repeat the prayer of the faithful? Is emotional capital and ego preservation more valuable than financial capital and wealth preservation? Is pie-in-the-sky tastier than meat and potatoes? Why is the APPL investor who has held on from 700 an idiot, even if he "bought at 20", while the ones who have held on to silver from 48, and who might have bought at 4, are spiritual?
I'm willing to admit I do not know what tomorrow brings. I seem to be somewhat alone in that willingness, but that is the curse of the agnostic. I guess I don't belong to the original Original First Church of the One Absolute Truth, though here I am at the revival meeting listening to the same songs again. It's an odd thing to witness, but I guess that is why it is called the madness of crowds.
I know, here come the fatwas.
I'm willing to admit I do not know what tomorrow brings.
***********
Isn't that big of you--I'm sure everyone will sleep better knowing that-
You..asshole have the audacity to post your "therocarcy"--with fuckall to back it up against an 11 year bull market that is performing as any true bull market should--if you had any technical smarts you could see this is nothing more than a back test of the july 2012 breakout/monthly--
Please..show up here when you get your head handed to you--I have you short at 1600--remember that-