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Scoring The BoJ Governor Candidates

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We recently introduced the four main candidates in the 'how easy can we be' glamor parade that is the BoJ Governor race. With Abe potentially set to name his nomination as early as this week, the rhetoric is heating up. Citi grades the BoJ governor candidates on a scale of 1 to 5 from the perspective of JPY bullish/bearish. Mr.Kazumasa Iwata will be the most JPY bearish candidate as he is a proponent of the BoJ’s foreign bond purchase. On the other hand, Mr.Toshiro Muto is the most JPY bullish candidate among the big three but he would still be far more dovish on monetary policy (and JPY negative) compared with Shirakawa, the current governor. The third candidate Kuroda will be middle between Iwata and Muto. Also, we need to pay attention to who shall be the deputy governors with USDJPY projections from 90 to 100 depending on the combination.

Via Citi,

The BoJ Governor Candidates from most (5) to least (1) JPY-negative

 

We think that it’s almost certain that one of two must go to Mr.Nakaso, the BoJ executive director, regardless who will become the next governor. A question is who will obtain the other one. If Kazumasa Iwata takes the governor place, we believe one of the deputy posts must be gained by a former MoF bureaucrat with Eijiro Katsu and Yasutake Tango as the most possible candidate.

The total score of JPY weakness would be 11 (the highest) and 10 points and we expect JPY shall depreciate against USD to 95-100 and 92-97 in these cases (case 1 and 2 below).

 

and how the candidates will be priced into JPY...

In the case Muto or Kuroda wins the presidency we suspect PM Abe would ask someone who will follow his policy devotedly such as Kikuo Iwata or Takatoshi Ito to be the deputy governor. Kuroda-Iwata-Nakaso (case 3) will form a very JPY negative alliance with a 11 score as well as the Kazumasa Iwata-Katsu-Nakaso troika. The JPY negative score of the Kuroda-Ito-Nakaso and the Muto-Iwata-Nakaso troikas (case 4 and 5) is 10 points, when we expect JPY will weaken to 92-97 as well as the case of Kazumasa Iwata-Tango-Nakaso. The Muro-Ito-Nakaso regime (case 6) can gain only 9 points, the lowest among our supposition and USDJPY will stop rising and form a range between 90 and 95 in the near term, we expect. Notwithstanding, the JPY negative score of this case is far larger than the current troika by Shirakawa, Yamaguchi and Nishimura.

 

From a longer term perspective, no matter who is appointed, we would not expect any major difference in the degree of monetary easing to be carried out under the next BoJ leadership troika.

 

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Sun, 02/17/2013 - 20:55 | 3252031 knukles
knukles's picture

Any serious efforts any more are about as useful as the CBO hours estimated to finish notification at the bottom of all government documents or the tags on pillows, mattresses and the like proclaiming that under Federal Law one faces a penalty for removing said tag.

These things scare many small children, leaving life long scars upon their hearts.

Like whoeverthefuck gets there is gonna make a difference anymore for fuck's sake.
Jesus....

All my fucking taxes went up, inflation's eating me alive at the grocery and gas station, I'm earning 0% interest, the press keeps telling me that everything's A-fucking-OK because stocks are going up, the lawmakers are off enjoying some fucking holiday on the taxpayers dime and Shitty Bank is telling me someone in Tokyo is gonna make a difference.

Pass the cat food flavored Jello, please.

And people accuse me of being a cynic.

I'll bet you the guy who wrote this used to jerk off in the communal dorm showers with his buddies in college.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 14:22 | 3253568 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, I really think people are way, way overthinking this shit.  Here is everything we need to know:

Insolvency --> Printing

Printing --> Default

Worrying about the speed or scale of the printing is chasing windmills.  Preparing for default is the one and only thing us ordinary citizens should be focused on. 

 

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 20:53 | 3252042 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Zzzzzzzzzz........

Just can't find the energy to care about this on a Sunday evening.  Pick whoever you like.  I'm sure they'll do a fine job impoverishing their subjects.

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 20:55 | 3252046 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's getting fun``.  .  '

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:02 | 3252053 knukles
knukles's picture

Does this seem to you to be the last place on Earth for some light humor, mere plebeian attempts to retain one's sanity for those of us who otherwise really don't give a rats ass about anything anymore, but just want to blubber on and bitch about shit like a buncha old ladies?

Sure does to me.
And I like it like that.
Nobody is on my ass here about completing anything, making any effort to do anything constructive and I get the grousing out of my system so when I gaze upon the beautiful Chemtrails I don't go crazy.

Now, where's that chocolate?

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:07 | 3252065 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Long > Whiney old BitcheZ...

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:33 | 3252106 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Seriously, in the face of the ill (divine) winds that are blowing out of Japan, it seems they might know their only course of action.. looks like somebody stumbled across the minutes of the last board meeting..

General: Honorable kamikaze pilots of Rising of qua Japan,
today you embark-e on a most dangerous mission.
Today you take-a you kamikaze planes high up in the sky,
over the Yankee aircraft carrier.
Bring-a you kamikazes planes down fast,
crashing on the deck,
killing yourself and everyone aboard.

Now, before we have ceremonial sake toast,
are there any questions?

Yes, you in the back, Sakimoto.

Sakimoto: Honorable General-son

General: Ah so.

Sakimoto: You out of your f*****g mind!

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:43 | 3252120 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

W@ell done, Manthong. +1

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:03 | 3252054 disabledvet
Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:09 | 3252068 chump666
chump666's picture

I wish a samurai warrior from the past would come and kill these guys.

That would be cool.

Anyways probably a fat YEN bull-trap starting now. 

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:13 | 3252073 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thar she blows. usd/jpy. China is going to be fun in London!

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:17 | 3252080 chump666
chump666's picture

A clip for you Yen.

See it?

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:16 | 3252077 chump666
Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:45 | 3252124 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks chump that was sweet. ;-)

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 01:40 | 3252407 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Toshiro Mifune.

I vote for him.

But then I am surprised no one from the Squid?

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:17 | 3252081 Being Free
Being Free's picture

The job isn't even posted yet, wtf?

http://www.goldmansachs.com/a/data/jobs/japan-ficc.html

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 21:54 | 3252135 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Don't worry the FRYday,(usd/jpy) Gap needs to get closed. Not much on the calendar.  Long Single Malt! ;-D

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 22:42 | 3252185 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

What about Mr. Miyagi? Was he Korean or Japanese? Ehhh, who gives fuck as long as he knows how to add zeroes to a balance sheet.

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