2013 Earnings: Just Insert Hockeystick

Tyler Durden's picture


We have discussed various incarnations of market-reality separation from underlying-reality but none had quite the unbelievability of the following chart of earnings-growth expectations currently foreseen by the consensus of linear-extrapolaters and hockey-stickers known as the sell-side. Behold - hope, defined...

2013 Consensus earnings growth is +27% YoY...!


all done with 6% YoY top-line growth (which by itself is somewhat incredible given its triple GDP growth expectations for the year)...


and at the same time it appears pretty clear that EBIT Margins have rolled over...


Meanwhile, BTFD.


Charts: Goldman Sachs

Your rating: None

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Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:31 | 3254256 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

What could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:38 | 3254275 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!  The Tyler(s) have such little faith.  Yeah - great sales and EPS from companies this summer when gas is $4.50 a gallon and Calif will probably be $5.50.  Food prices will be just as bad.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:17 | 3254369 TruthInSunshine
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A very partially-lucid Greenspan was rumored show up on a guest appearance on cnBSc recently literally claiming that "stocks can't decline."

Look at Greenspan's record of accuracy in his past predictions both pre and post his appointment to the Fed.

Caveat Emptor on BuyingTFanything Greenspan is selling.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:48 | 3254439 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Tilt your head to the left and all the graphs show a distinct unicorn pattern.

Subliminal messaging?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:00 | 3254458 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Bend forward a little if you desire to have that unicorn pattern shoved up your ass... [not you PERSONALLY, Rocky, I'm speaking to the flock]...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:58 | 3254645 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Rocky- Are there any skittles coming out the unicorns ass??? I like skittles!!! 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:50 | 3254444 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Greenspan will have his 'meeting' with the 'Law of Truth & Justice' soon enough. He will wish he never sought the approval of the ' power of man'....nor sought security in it. Only 'Truth' offers complete 'security'...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:02 | 3254652 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Greenscam actually died 3 years ago- what you see is a Zombie Greenscam- similiar to a Zombie Bank- kept alive with constant transfusions.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:31 | 3254257 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Hey, this is the only way you can still say that stocks are cheap! And never mind if you have to drop those numbers in half two weeks before earnings come out to ensure you get beats.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:26 | 3254391 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

All about the benchmark and expectations.

Raise minimum wage by 25% and watch sales expectations soar.

Of course, nobody in the adminstration understands that every 4th person who works at a federal minimum wage job will be fired, which is always awesome for end demand.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:03 | 3255293 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The BLS is doing earnings estimates now I see.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:33 | 3254260 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I don't get it-every store I go to is like a ghost town and even in places like Target people are only buying groceries

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:46 | 3254273 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

the new normal is finally here.

Gas to $50/gallon in a few weeks.

But no need to worry.

Homeland security has several hundred thousand rounds of "hollow point" ammunition to "protect you"

No need to panic.

At least not until you hear main stream media tell you not to panic.

When they do then for sure it'll be time to panic.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:56 | 3254643 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Several hundred thousand rounds? That's one way to put it. 1.2 billion rounds is another way. Your way sounds less diabolical. My way is more precise.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:31 | 3254712 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

They'll line up the federal employees shoulder to shoulder along the Atlantic, armed to the teeth, and fire a wall of lead into the flyover states until they run out of lead. Could go on for decades.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:25 | 3254864 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

protect yourself with .009Meter Pb.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:25 | 3254865 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

protect yourself with .009Meter Pb.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:40 | 3254280 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I know some people who have relatives or friends or others who work in these types of stores and restaurants.  They are cutting to bare bones.  The Obummer voters get free stuff or are govt unionized workers.  No pain for them.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254337 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture


Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:32 | 3254715 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Didn't the WalMart CFO say sales are worst in his memory?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:46 | 3254295 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

That's funny you post that.  Last Sat evening around 6:30pm I was out with my wife and we swung by Target and I commented that I had never seen a Target that empty...ever.  As you said most were shopping for groceries.  There were literally more people at the checkout line than rest of the store combined partially due to fact they only had 3 cashiers.  Admittedly, I don't go to retail stores often or even out Sat much...and maybe being Valentines weekend was part of it... but to me the lack of traffic was stunning.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:52 | 3254309 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Class warfare.

We're losing.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:06 | 3254346 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

ditto, Keepers. I cannot believe how spooky the mall was this weekend despite the massive sales. JCP, Sears...even Macy's were pretty quiet. The smaller stores were totally empty excpet for American Eagle.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:03 | 3254969 Lore
Lore's picture

Ditto from Canada. The malls and department stores are practically deserted. Aisles are filled with racks of winter stuff when they should be rolling out spring stock. Even Wal-Mart is quiet. Consumer debt is one factor, but lousy selection is another. Quality is gone. New merchandise looks like it came from a dumpster. Everything is disposable. 

We speculated that doors would start closing after last year's sales were tallied, but it hasn't happened yet.  In this context, the 'hockey stick' allusion is appropros: maybe store operators are still stuck in the same state of denial witnessed years ago at the IPCC, with their infamous 'hockey stick' graph.  Real estate professionals are another group apparently predisposed to ignoring the negative.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:27 | 3254394 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It doesn't matter as long as stocks keep going up. Greedscam said the only thing that matters is an ever-higher stock market.


Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:22 | 3254855 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

...but they are buying online! That's why Amazon's profit is so high.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:40 | 3255466 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Turn over is high.  Profit is not

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:36 | 3254268 hannah
hannah's picture

at th end of the year we will have to have 400% growth to make up for neg growth all year...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:39 | 3254276 falak pema
falak pema's picture

here is an interesting article of how America could change its collective mindset : 

23 Laws The US Should Adopt - Business Insider

TD once extolled the quality of the articles of ZH and labelled BI as a "tabloid".

I don't doubt that broad brush categorisation of both blog sites, but BI does have a few thought provoking articles; even if they are there are ephemeral stimulants to  intellectualise its tabloid format consumption.

Just saying, lightning can fall from all directions like the enlightenment! 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:26 | 3254697 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Bus Insider = automatic red arrow.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:48 | 3254752 natronic
natronic's picture

Alright hippie gimme some of what u smokin

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:37 | 3255352 poor fella
poor fella's picture

damn pessimists! There's not much chance avoiding doom, but that's a good list anyway. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:39 | 3255464 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Business Insider is fluffy soft shit

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:41 | 3254284 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Earnings? What do earnings have to do with nominal stock valuations anymore? The FED (and other CBs around the world) control the market now. Earnings could fall off a cliff and the S&P would probably rip another few hundred points higher.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:43 | 3254288 Nid
Nid's picture

Yet the Eq Markets continue the melt up....there is no stock for sale.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:47 | 3254297 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Well, on Bizarro World, Htrae, this indicates growth and huge bonuses hence coming.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:00 | 3254323 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It always ends up (elbows and assholes)<>

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:02 | 3254328 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They are going to have the IRS open up their accounting standards to include fraud this year. The banksters are going to run this one to the end. All those hollow points for the Mother Land aren't for nothing.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:01 | 3254461 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The bankers and central banks will also bow down to the 'Law of Truth & Justice'. It is coming. Be patient my friend of Self-Knowledge....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:12 | 3254487 which way weste...
which way western man's picture

The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks. 
Lord Acton 
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/l/lordacton409908.html#U6lQkWtozK1A78Ow.99 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254334 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

'Better then expected,' I'd say.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254336 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

by April GS will lay off people, at least in london

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254342 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Can you verify your comment?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:28 | 3254395 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's bullish, the market loves layoffs.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254340 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

My expectation for 2014 is that I'm finally going to set up shop with a Victoria Secret's model who will keep me in my underwear all day.

Subject to downward revision.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254341 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I can't wait for this shit to crash.  Then the MSM will say "oh noes, who'd coulda seen it coming!"

Can't wait until they eat a bag of cold dicks.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:59 | 3254455 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why should it ever crash? I mean it isn't like it's a real maerket or anything.

I think you need to study zombie life. Then it will all make sense.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:34 | 3254719 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Exactly. The entire stock market is what, 30 banks? All trading back and forth from exchange to exchange, sunup to sunup around the world. It may never crash, unless we have a global power outage.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:03 | 3254463 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

They'll blame it on the republicans for cutting govt. spending when it all comes crashing down.  Its pre-planned, baked in already.

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