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2013 Earnings: Just Insert Hockeystick

Tyler Durden's picture


We have discussed various incarnations of market-reality separation from underlying-reality but none had quite the unbelievability of the following chart of earnings-growth expectations currently foreseen by the consensus of linear-extrapolaters and hockey-stickers known as the sell-side. Behold - hope, defined...

2013 Consensus earnings growth is +27% YoY...!


all done with 6% YoY top-line growth (which by itself is somewhat incredible given its triple GDP growth expectations for the year)...


and at the same time it appears pretty clear that EBIT Margins have rolled over...


Meanwhile, BTFD.


Charts: Goldman Sachs


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Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:31 | 3254256 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

What could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:38 | 3254275 Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!  The Tyler(s) have such little faith.  Yeah - great sales and EPS from companies this summer when gas is $4.50 a gallon and Calif will probably be $5.50.  Food prices will be just as bad.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:17 | 3254369 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A very partially-lucid Greenspan was rumored show up on a guest appearance on cnBSc recently literally claiming that "stocks can't decline."

Look at Greenspan's record of accuracy in his past predictions both pre and post his appointment to the Fed.

Caveat Emptor on BuyingTFanything Greenspan is selling.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:48 | 3254439 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Tilt your head to the left and all the graphs show a distinct unicorn pattern.

Subliminal messaging?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:00 | 3254458 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Bend forward a little if you desire to have that unicorn pattern shoved up your ass... [not you PERSONALLY, Rocky, I'm speaking to the flock]...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:58 | 3254645 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Rocky- Are there any skittles coming out the unicorns ass??? I like skittles!!! 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:50 | 3254444 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Greenspan will have his 'meeting' with the 'Law of Truth & Justice' soon enough. He will wish he never sought the approval of the ' power of man'....nor sought security in it. Only 'Truth' offers complete 'security'...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:02 | 3254652 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Greenscam actually died 3 years ago- what you see is a Zombie Greenscam- similiar to a Zombie Bank- kept alive with constant transfusions.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:31 | 3254257 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Hey, this is the only way you can still say that stocks are cheap! And never mind if you have to drop those numbers in half two weeks before earnings come out to ensure you get beats.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:26 | 3254391 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

All about the benchmark and expectations.

Raise minimum wage by 25% and watch sales expectations soar.

Of course, nobody in the adminstration understands that every 4th person who works at a federal minimum wage job will be fired, which is always awesome for end demand.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:03 | 3255293 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The BLS is doing earnings estimates now I see.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:33 | 3254260 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I don't get it-every store I go to is like a ghost town and even in places like Target people are only buying groceries

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:46 | 3254273 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

the new normal is finally here.

Gas to $50/gallon in a few weeks.

But no need to worry.

Homeland security has several hundred thousand rounds of "hollow point" ammunition to "protect you"

No need to panic.

At least not until you hear main stream media tell you not to panic.

When they do then for sure it'll be time to panic.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:56 | 3254643 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Several hundred thousand rounds? That's one way to put it. 1.2 billion rounds is another way. Your way sounds less diabolical. My way is more precise.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:31 | 3254712 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

They'll line up the federal employees shoulder to shoulder along the Atlantic, armed to the teeth, and fire a wall of lead into the flyover states until they run out of lead. Could go on for decades.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:25 | 3254864 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

protect yourself with .009Meter Pb.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:25 | 3254865 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

protect yourself with .009Meter Pb.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:40 | 3254280 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I know some people who have relatives or friends or others who work in these types of stores and restaurants.  They are cutting to bare bones.  The Obummer voters get free stuff or are govt unionized workers.  No pain for them.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254337 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture


Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:32 | 3254715 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Didn't the WalMart CFO say sales are worst in his memory?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:46 | 3254295 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

That's funny you post that.  Last Sat evening around 6:30pm I was out with my wife and we swung by Target and I commented that I had never seen a Target that empty...ever.  As you said most were shopping for groceries.  There were literally more people at the checkout line than rest of the store combined partially due to fact they only had 3 cashiers.  Admittedly, I don't go to retail stores often or even out Sat much...and maybe being Valentines weekend was part of it... but to me the lack of traffic was stunning.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:52 | 3254309 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Class warfare.

We're losing.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:06 | 3254346 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

ditto, Keepers. I cannot believe how spooky the mall was this weekend despite the massive sales. JCP, Sears...even Macy's were pretty quiet. The smaller stores were totally empty excpet for American Eagle.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:03 | 3254969 Lore
Lore's picture

Ditto from Canada. The malls and department stores are practically deserted. Aisles are filled with racks of winter stuff when they should be rolling out spring stock. Even Wal-Mart is quiet. Consumer debt is one factor, but lousy selection is another. Quality is gone. New merchandise looks like it came from a dumpster. Everything is disposable. 

We speculated that doors would start closing after last year's sales were tallied, but it hasn't happened yet.  In this context, the 'hockey stick' allusion is appropros: maybe store operators are still stuck in the same state of denial witnessed years ago at the IPCC, with their infamous 'hockey stick' graph.  Real estate professionals are another group apparently predisposed to ignoring the negative.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:27 | 3254394 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It doesn't matter as long as stocks keep going up. Greedscam said the only thing that matters is an ever-higher stock market.


Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:22 | 3254855 augustusgloop
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...but they are buying online! That's why Amazon's profit is so high.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:40 | 3255466 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Turn over is high.  Profit is not

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:36 | 3254268 hannah
hannah's picture

at th end of the year we will have to have 400% growth to make up for neg growth all year...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:39 | 3254276 falak pema
falak pema's picture

here is an interesting article of how America could change its collective mindset : 

23 Laws The US Should Adopt - Business Insider

TD once extolled the quality of the articles of ZH and labelled BI as a "tabloid".

I don't doubt that broad brush categorisation of both blog sites, but BI does have a few thought provoking articles; even if they are there are ephemeral stimulants to  intellectualise its tabloid format consumption.

Just saying, lightning can fall from all directions like the enlightenment! 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:26 | 3254697 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Bus Insider = automatic red arrow.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:48 | 3254752 natronic
natronic's picture

Alright hippie gimme some of what u smokin

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 02:37 | 3255352 poor fella
poor fella's picture

damn pessimists! There's not much chance avoiding doom, but that's a good list anyway. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:39 | 3255464 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Business Insider is fluffy soft shit

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:41 | 3254284 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Earnings? What do earnings have to do with nominal stock valuations anymore? The FED (and other CBs around the world) control the market now. Earnings could fall off a cliff and the S&P would probably rip another few hundred points higher.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:43 | 3254288 Nid
Nid's picture

Yet the Eq Markets continue the melt up....there is no stock for sale.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:47 | 3254297 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Well, on Bizarro World, Htrae, this indicates growth and huge bonuses hence coming.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:00 | 3254323 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It always ends up (elbows and assholes)<>

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:02 | 3254328 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They are going to have the IRS open up their accounting standards to include fraud this year. The banksters are going to run this one to the end. All those hollow points for the Mother Land aren't for nothing.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:01 | 3254461 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The bankers and central banks will also bow down to the 'Law of Truth & Justice'. It is coming. Be patient my friend of Self-Knowledge....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:12 | 3254487 which way weste...
which way western man's picture

The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks. 
Lord Acton 
Read more at 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254334 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

'Better then expected,' I'd say.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:04 | 3254336 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

by April GS will lay off people, at least in london

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254342 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Can you verify your comment?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:28 | 3254395 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's bullish, the market loves layoffs.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254340 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

My expectation for 2014 is that I'm finally going to set up shop with a Victoria Secret's model who will keep me in my underwear all day.

Subject to downward revision.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254341 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I can't wait for this shit to crash.  Then the MSM will say "oh noes, who'd coulda seen it coming!"

Can't wait until they eat a bag of cold dicks.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:59 | 3254455 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why should it ever crash? I mean it isn't like it's a real maerket or anything.

I think you need to study zombie life. Then it will all make sense.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:34 | 3254719 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Exactly. The entire stock market is what, 30 banks? All trading back and forth from exchange to exchange, sunup to sunup around the world. It may never crash, unless we have a global power outage.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:03 | 3254463 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

They'll blame it on the republicans for cutting govt. spending when it all comes crashing down.  Its pre-planned, baked in already.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:38 | 3255462 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

You can't wait for this shit to crash?

Are you out of your mind?  Or is your life just so bad that you would like the world to join you in your misery?

You know what crash means don't you?  Suffering on an epic scale.

And you are wishing for this?  Wow.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:05 | 3254344 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

accounting gimmicks, smoke, and mirrors

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:04 | 3254464 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

+ one buzz

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:15 | 3254368 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

Printing presses are bullish for stocks - period - think Zimbabwe.

The Fed and the Treasury do not care about anything other than the collateral backstopping the loans held by the NY Money Center Banks. Thus they will reflate everything in order to see the underlying collateral get hockey-sticked back above impairment levels. They have to skate the real estate market to new highs in order to repair the balance sheets of the banks and U.S. homeowners - everyone else can swing. Seniors living on fixed incomes and non-homeowners looking to buy a starter home are fucked. In fact, all responsible citizens that pay their bills on time and SAVE are fucked. Which is why stocks are going to parabolic new highs....

NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary Wiemar-like spiral. Short cash and cash equivalents at all costs.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:31 | 3254713 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It's pretty simple. Bank holds a $300,000 mortgage on a house worth $200,000. Write it down today and lose $100,000. Get Ben to jack up inflation and make the house worth $300,000 and then dump it in some bundled derivative at full price. Bonus time baby!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:19 | 3254372 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Today I made Kale soup in my West Bend slow cooker, made in Wisconsin circa 1982.

I'm certain of the following:  it is now made in China, the factory in Wisconsin a dlapidated hangout for unemployed teens, the people who used to work there are struggling to pay untenable healthcare costs, and that it is NOT 1982 anymore in the U.S.S.A.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:26 | 3254388 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  We need some "SOUP"  ebbie.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:31 | 3254401 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Obama, Bernanke and the Welcome more people on Food Stamps and welfare. More new voters to keep the socialistic agenda.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:33 | 3254407 Uber Vandal
Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:45 | 3254428 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

The rest of the mammon seeking corporate scumbags would rather just rename it West Bendover rather than try to bring manufacturing stateside.  I believe we should tax all American charted companies on all profits, foreign or domestic.  I prime example is GE.  Pull that scumbag corporations license to do business in the US and see how fast their tune changes!!  This goes doubly for the bottom feeding scum sucking banks.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:46 | 3254433 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

True. Been there, done that myself when after automating the living crap out of our facility, it was still moved to a "low cost" country.

Kind of funny looking up some of the "management team" on LinkedIn, for obviously it is not only Ivory Soap that floats.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:08 | 3254658 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Thanks for that.  I know there are good people out there trying, it is just that our crony capitalist structure is parasitic; starting with management sharks and all the way down the food chain with the lawyer lampreys and politician krill sacrificing the average person and a living wage for their greedy maws.

Colonel Klink and Uver Vandal have it right; greed has supplanted honest work.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:01 | 3254459 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

If you don't mind, indulge me with that Kale Soup Recipe.  I have a garden full of that stuff!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:03 | 3254642 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Cape Kale Soup

1 large onion chopped

1/2 tsp. crushed garlic

2 tsp. vegetable oil

1/2 tsp. crushed hot peppers

2 large carrots diced into coins ~1/8" thick

1 large red-skinned potato, washed and cut into 1" cubes

3 Cups water

2  15-1/2 oz. can kidney beans

1 16 oz. can whole or diced tomatoes (cut up the whole tomatoes)

1 16 oz. can chopped kale with liquid, 1pkg. frozen, or 9 oz. fresh chopped (fresh is best)

1/4 cup vinegar (cider or white - I prefer cider)

1 Tbsp. liquid smoke

 In a large saucepan, sauté onion and garlic in oil.  Ad hot peppers, carrots potato, water, and kidney beans.  Add tomatoes and their juice to the soup.  Add Kale and simmer for about 45 minutes or until the carrots and potatoes are soft.  Just before serving, add vinegar and liquid smoke.  Add more garlic and hot peppers or hot sauce to your taste before serving.

Be careful with the vinegar, start with 1/8 cup. 

You can add more kale if fresh - the best way to make it.  I usually use the whole bunch I buy at the grocery store.  Cut the fibrous stems out of the center and chop the kale up some.  You don't have to cut it up too fine as it becomes very soft after cooking.

You can add more carrots too without hurting it.

Low fat, no meat, but the liquid smoke and vinegar makes it taste like it has meat in it.  Very healthy mix of stuff in here, pig out without worry.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 08:47 | 3255627 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Killer Thx!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:31 | 3257654 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Kale is one of the top 2 green vegetables to eat. The other being brocoli. I would argue its number 1. One serving has more vitaminc then 95% of the vitamin c contained foods AND it also has more vitamin A then 95% of the vitamin A contained foods! Kale greens are a rare breed indeed! They are also loaded with tons of phyto-chemical micronutrients that your body needs just as much, if not more, then your standard requirements for standard minerals and vitamins!


Red onions are another superfood that is underated. They do not have high vitamin and mineral content, but they are the only food that has the organo sulfite compounds our bodies need to prevent disease and cancer. Look it up. Watch Dr. Marc Furhman's presentation on PBS titled 'Immunity Solution'  The man is a medical saint!


Thank you for that awesome recipe!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:36 | 3254725 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

West Bend? Read about that in a western mythology text I think.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:27 | 3254393 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Lets have some fun


Guthrie Govan

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:44 | 3254423 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Like I said in a previous post, many sell-side analysts will have their 'cummupance' with the 'Law of Truth & Justice and lose some much needed muscle (brain) and bone (skull)-mass when the fraud of greed is purged from the consciousness of the Holy.....mock me if you will, but the Master will have 'His' way before this is over. Woe to those who worship at the altar of worldliness. 'Truth and Justice' is an Eternal Law and that Law acts in Love.....This is a tenet of most majorv religious belief, and although not bound by the creed of organized religion, and in direct negation of many, Truth acts and that action is not only Just, but Holy and Religious in nature....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:25 | 3254494 which way weste...
which way western man's picture

greensplat is a heavy-eyelidded gargoyle-faced "jew".

But did you know that he loves jazz and used to throw a great curveball?

That ugly kike beard bitch of his (andrea mitchell) looks like she got her jew face smashed with a frying pan.


(meant as a reply to LOOSELEE)

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:37 | 3254726 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

He could be a Saudi and you'd get the same outcome. They have their rules ya know.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:36 | 3255461 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The Israeli General's Son - forward this to the world

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:49 | 3254531 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Uh-oh. We're dun goofed.

BTFD! Can't get any worse! LOL

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:21 | 3254685 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Given the payroll tax hike, much higher gasoline prices, a likely sequester, and a reasonable chance that the Fed will start slowing down the QE gravy train, this makes no sense.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:35 | 3254723 orez65
orez65's picture

What's this shit about "payroll tax"?

It is the "Social Security Tax".

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:24 | 3254691 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

when you get some time, check out the definition of "coup d'etat".   i really wonder if this is what has happened to the u.s.a.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:38 | 3254729 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Silent but deadly. Like a quiet fart.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:40 | 3254734 orez65
orez65's picture

I think that you are correct.

The US is being run by the "The Too Big To Fail Banks (TBTFB)".

They let us play with social issues like "Gay Rights" and "Abortion".

But the economy is now centrally planned and controlled by the TBTFB.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:25 | 3254693 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

When in doubt, do as the 2.0 companies do and only report adjusted EBITDA numbers and have the underwriters get the collusive media to only write articles touting how great earnings are (no matter how bad they suck).

It provides great cover for the crooked policy vehicle, and wall street/ politician fraud device, once known as the stock market.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:07 | 3255340 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Yeah it's a hockey stick alright. And the middle class is the puck. AND Bernanke is about to take a slap shot. AND. . .



                                                 'HE HIT THE POST!    HE HIT THE F#CKIN' POST!'

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:05 | 3255384 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Another start to a week where ZH reports one thing and the MSM reports otherwise.


MSM is just keeping the sheeple informed.


Let's see if we get our start to a crash this week or a another week up - that would be 8 in a row.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:42 | 3255468 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The Israeli General's Son - forward this to the world

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 07:06 | 3255542 falak pema
falak pema's picture

R you saying that the supply side meme in total deregulation is now hitting an asymptote as demand disappears as the Wal mart razmataz now makes apparently clear.

King Consumer on food stamps and w/O the credit card pump now is facing dire consumption withdrawal pangs; less bangs per buck on supermall spends?

Wow, wow, wow, we'll have to change that old supply side model that churns out stuff like Ipads/Iphones that nobody buys! 

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