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Chart Of The Day: Spanish Debt

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Beleaguered Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy just broke another record. As if a plague of corruption scandals was not enough, Spain's debt-to-GDP has now reached levels not seen in over 100 years. As El Pais reports, Spanish debt levels rose at an alarming EUR 400 million per day in 2012 making for the largest annual increase in debt in the nation's history - all the while proclaiming austerity.

 

The EUR 146 billion increase in debt in 2012 is the equivalent of more than 14 percentage points of GDP leading to a staggering EUR 882.3 billion or 84% of GDP overall - far exceeding the government's own budget forecast of 79% and expected to rise significantly further in 2013. The last time levels of debt were this high relative to GDP Spain was recovering from war and the loss of its colonies.

 

At EUR 38.7 billion, Spain has never spent so much money to pay only the interest on its debt, 33% more than budgeted for last year. Despite the apparent Draghi-inspired truce that investors appear to have agreed with Spain's bond markets, the average interest expense remains 4.1% and as one economist put it, Spain fails in all the variables that serve to stabilize the debt: its economy does not grow, its pays a relatively high interest rate, and has a primary deficit (prior to payment of interest on the debt); unless this situation is corrected, this "is a dynamic that eventually leads to non-payment," especially as the nation's unemployment surges and GDP shifts from recessionary to depressionary.

 

Still think Europe's crisis is over?

 


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Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Shock and awe....didn't see it coming really.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Just like 100 years ago.
Ah, the good olde days

When I was a kid we used to walk uphill in the snow 6 miles each way barefoot to school and back with a sack of IOUs on our back and...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

When will the politicians learn how to pronounce b-a-n-k-r-u-p-t-c-y? 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 03:06 | Link to Comment All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Once the gang banksters are done looting trillions in debt money (offloading the debt that created that debt money to the citizenry) and offloaded their trillions in bad debt holdings to society.

Greece is the "dry run" for America and the larger European nation states.

Each nation will be bankrupted and enslaved in the "bailout" process.

It's all a fraud based on 5th grade math...

http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/4768883/debtmoneytyranny-6-1-pdf-60k?tr=77

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:42 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

You had FEET?  We had to share a pair!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 14:10 | Link to Comment TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

84%? Not a big deal...Its nothing that couldn't be brought in line by another Franco.

Debt fell steadily during his tenure.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Meanwhile, the U.S. is at 105.9% debt to gdp and counting.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Yes, yes we are worse off than Spain (somehow).   

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

And the problem is....?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 11:26 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Nothing Dr. Krugman could not solve with a few space aliens.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Rajoy just broke another record. As if a plague of corruption scandals was not enough, Spain's debt-to-GDP has now reached levels not seen in over 100 years

 

Just like that kind of metor that crashes down on earth every 100 years...

1 week later, people will respons you: "WHAT METEORITE? NEVER HEARD OF IT..."

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Unstable Condition
Unstable Condition's picture

Tried to give you a +1, but the arrows aren't working on your comment.

No worries, I'll forget what you said by noon...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I do that with mindcontrol... all of the time...

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The left brains handles Logic. So it you have braindamage on that side, you can work for the European government.

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Classic, SD. Pure classic.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

The official "€-stat" measure of govt debt excludes a lot of liabilities. Acc to Bank of Spain in Q3 2012 Spanish govt liabilities were 1015.507 bn. At the same time the official measure showed 817.164 bn. That makes a difference of roughly 200 bn (almost 20%-points in debt/gdp terms). Stats can be found here: http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/estadis/infoest/a1105e.pdf

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

So Spain's debt-to-GDP is 84%, whereas the U.S.'s is +/- 102%.  Yet Espana is "suffering" 4.1% interest expense on that debt - about a 200 bp premium on the U.S., presumably for all of the extra "risk".

It is going to get ugly beyond belief when the US Treasury yield dam breaks and interest rates start to move toward where they ought to be.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Ugly is in the eye of the beholder.  Some of us may find it quite pleasing.  Got food?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Just wait until the peasants find out the bankers rehypothecated all the gold 20 times and there is no gold.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment The Mist
The Mist's picture

The US interest on treasuries can't increase, you have the FED that will monopolize it. Free money!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:57 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Then the dollar dies faster.  The BRICs are already moving away from the Fed's monopoly money, so should you.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Spain's debt-toGDP ratio is over 100% if one uses the true GDP and one accounts for all the public debt.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Bullish! As that cocksucker krugman would say, more spending and debt equals more GDP growth. Oh wait GDP is contracting?? That just means they're not spending enough. Look at the low yield on the spanish 10yr, the market is begging them to borrow more. sarc/

Hope all these keynesians burn in hell.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment plaspotje
plaspotje's picture

Europe's crisis is over, at least in the eye's of the political elite, but perhaps its good for europe, it may be able to get this euro  close to the 1 to 1 dollar  and the quickly peg the fucker  1 to 1,  the way it should have been done from the start

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Time to send some ships to the new world, gather (steal) some gold, and enslave some locals.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

New world? Iceland?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Mayhem

You don't get it.

The function of Europe is to transfer its fuel ration west & east of its shores.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

The scale on the right side of the 'Spain Debt"  graph looks off...882,300 is above the 1,000,000 mark

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment The Mist
The Mist's picture

Well... With currency wars going on, what currency shall I exchange my Euros for?

And don't say gold. Gold when it isn't physical is junk and delivered by scammers and ponzi schemes. Physical gold demands an incredibly high VAT and is so incredibly illiquid that it's a shitty investment. When things get so bad that you need physical gold, it's better to have weapons and food.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:02 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Since you seem to have made up your mind, why ask?

Stick to weapons and food.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Fine gold does not pay VAT (European directive), check your facts (silver does btw)

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"Fine gold does not pay VAT (European directive), check your facts (silver does btw)"

VAT, silver (coins)

UK 20%

DE 7%

DK 25%

BTW, Estonia, VAT free Silver:

https://www.libertysilver.ee/en/vat_free_silver

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

IBEX down just 0.4%,or just 30 points, it  has already recovered 100 points...How???

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Kicked the printer and it's running again.....sorry about that.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

And of course, why not toss those non performing loans over to the government's bad bank too? More debt for the Spanish citizens to cover instead of the banks.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Yup, Spain is in good shape.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:21 | Link to Comment harleyjohn45
harleyjohn45's picture

Spain is not doing it right.  They need to buy all their debt, just like the USA does.  See problem solved.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment skydrake
skydrake's picture

...still lower than US debt

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ertt3o1x65c

 

Spanish songs in Andalucia
the shooting sites in the days of '39
Oh, please leave, the ventana open
Federico Lorca is dead and gone:
bullet holes in the cemetery walls
the black cars of the Guardia Civil
Spanish bombs on the Costa Rica
I'm flying in a dc-10 tonight 

Spanish bombs; yo te quiero infinito
Yo te quiero, oh mi corazón
Spanish bombs; yo te quiero infinito
Yo te quiero, oh mi corazón 

Spanish weeks in my disco casino
the freedom fighters died upon the hill
They sang the red flag
they wore the black one
but after they died, it was Mockingbird Hill
Back home, the buses went up in flashes
the Irish tomb was drenched in blood
Spanish bombs shatter the hotels
My señorita's rose was nipped in the bud 


The hillsides ring with "free the people"
or can I hear the echo from the days of '39
with trenches full of poets
the ragged army, fixing bayonets to fight the other line?
Spanish bombs rock the province
I'm hearing music from another time
Spanish bombs on the Costa Brava
I'm flying in on a dc-10 tonight 

Spanish bombs; yo te quiero infinito
Yo te quiero, oh mi corazón
Spanish bombs; yo te quiero infinito
Yo te quiero, oh mi corazón
oh mi corazón
oh mi corazón 

Spanish songs in Andalucia:
mandolina, oh mi corazón
Spanish songs in Granada, oh mi corazón

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Spain need to find another Continent filled with Gold and "naive" inhabitants.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

I told you so. For the last few months, I have been periodically visiting the Spanish budget situation. Whenever I analyzed the actual amounts of bonds sold and other metrics, I came to the conclusion that Spain's budget deficit was much worse than admitted by the Spanish Finance Ministry.

Prime Minister Rajoy and his People's Party should have zero credibility today in light of the massive corruption scandal recently brought to the fore, but the mainstream media has yet to report the large discrepancy among what the Spanish claim the budget deficit will be, 7.4% including bank bailouts, 9% from confidential sources within the ministry, or what appears to be the actual deficit, 14% according to the El Pais article.

How do we calculate 14%? The Spanish government issued €146bn in new debt for 2012. This figure does not include the rising amount of IOUs to government suppliers, the drop in the government's cash position or intragovernmental loans from pension and other assorted funds to the central government.

To make matters worse, Spain will need to borrow at least €173bn to finance itself in 2013 meaning that it is less than a year away from a 100% debt to gdp ratio:

Spain Firmly Within Juncker Zone

Spain is ripe for an "aha" moment, that point in time where investors realize that they have profited as much as they could from their bond holdings and begin taking profits. Spain will default on it debt pile, but it will not be called a default. Rather, the troika will use an Orwellian euphemism to refer to the entire disaster.

 

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Mon, 02/18/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

Ibex futures now just 10 points from the high of the day...if by magic!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

I am wondering....

Have we invented a perpetual ecoomic motion machine? 

GDP in almost every major economy is now negative - some big economies are in depression - joblessness is at record highs and worsening - corporate profits are soft

Yet the stock market keeps going up

And as The Fuck-Faced Wizard Greenspan said on CNBS the other day - that's all that matters (I don't watch CNBS but the interview was posted on ZH or other and I like to self-flagellate wondering why in the fuck he is not a pariah while watching this cocksucker)  See the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4XQaO3RYX8

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