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Guest Post: Is Europe Next For A Shale Natural Gas Boom?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Daniel Graeber of OilPrice.com

Is Europe Next For A Shale Natural Gas Boom?

Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell are getting an early start on shale exploration campaigns in eastern European countries. With the United States fast emerging as a shale natural gas leader, European economies eager to bolster their own energy independence are working to follow suit. Shell plans to spend more than $400 million to tap into Ukrainian shale, while Chevron has similar ambitions in eastern Romania. While regional shale gas production isn't going to match that seen in the United States, it's expected to eventually weaken the Russian grip on the region's energy sector.

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration estimates that, together, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania may hold many trillion cubic feet of shale natural gas. That was enough to give U.S. supermajor Chevron the confidence to move ahead with an exploration campaign there. The company began taking on shale concessions in 2010 and has since announced plans to start exploration. If EIA estimates are close to accurate, there may be enough shale gas in Romania to cover its energy needs for the next 40 years. The company, however, still needs environmental permits to move forward with its campaign.

Royal Dutch Shell, meanwhile, announced in January it was spending $10 billion to develop the shale potential in neighboring Ukraine. Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said on the sidelines of last month's economic summit in Davos, Switzerland, that his company sees "a lot of potential" in Ukraine, where the EIA puts the reserve estimate for shale natural gas at 42 trillion cubic feet. That's the third largest for shale of any of the Eastern European countries. Kiev says domestic natural gas productions should eventually eliminate the need for imports altogether.

Russian energy company Gazprom said Friday there was no way Ukraine could avoid paying the $7 billion it owes for unused natural gas last year covered under a "take-or-pay" scheme. Both sides have been at odds over gas contracts since at least 2006 and last year, the European Commission launched an anti-trust probe into the natural gas giant's business practices in the region.

For shale oil, PricewaterhouseCoopers reported that production could add another $2.7 trillion to the global economy per year by 2035. For shale, the picture could be just as bright. In the United States, shale natural gas could add another $118 billion to the country's gross domestic product by 2015 and triple to $231 billion by 2035. In parts of Europe, however, nearly 70 percent of the gas consumption is covered by imports and as much as 90 percent of that is from Russia. In terms of conventional reserves, however, few in Eastern Europe have enough conventional reserves to make a difference. Dutch company KPMG says that Romania and Ukraine are among the leading shale gas markets in the region, however. While the reserve potential is significant, it's no match for the United States. Nevertheless, KPMG, in a 2012 audit, found that shale gas production in Eastern Europe may eventually contain Russia.

"Shale gas production will not reach the same volumes as those of North America, it is expected to be a competitively-priced source of energy, as compared to that of imported Russian conventional gas," the audit states.

 

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Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:11 | 3253739 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Not if the Russians can do anything about it

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:27 | 3253755 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Perrier avec methane?

I wonder if the naturally methanated version is going to be giving the naturally carbonated version a run for the money. Something about flaming mineral water seems to me to be a natural for marketing as The European Economy burns to the ground.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LBjSXWQRV8

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:30 | 3253795 Babushka
Babushka's picture

The most scary documentary about fracking - Gasland.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1558250/

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3253851 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

POLAND I have read (elsewhere) may have huge deposits, as hinted at on the map above.  And it would be good for Europe;s own energy security to have options other than Russia...

I have also read that flame came out of faucets in PA before fracking ever started, just sayin'.  And if Europe does not WANT to frack, they do not have to!  It's their decision.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:59 | 3253874 Vashta Nerada
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Any company wanting to fracture in Poland had better be willing to tear up any contracts with Russia first.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:09 | 3253909 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Frack You! That's Why!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:25 | 3253948 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Look at that map...Iceland wins again! 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:48 | 3254156 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I've read that gas lines were hooked up to the faucet prior to filming.  Also, ever been to Yellowstone Nat'l. Park?  Man the smell of sulphur is so strong in places I'd be scared to light a match!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:15 | 3253923 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

The scariest part of that documentary is that people believe it despite there not being evidence of a single well contaminated by fracking.

http://www.ibtimes.com/epa-says-no-evidence-fracking-polluted-water-rural-pa-426212

The next scariest thing is that fracking will remove Terror and the Middle East from being the center of conversation as it has for the last 40 years. 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:33 | 3253965 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

go drink and bathe in that water for a few days

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:31 | 3254105 nflux
nflux's picture

I just got back from rural eastern ohio where they are fracking, bathed and drank the water and didn't even give a thought about it. talked to many people from the area and never once heard anybody say athing about the water being bad or tasting funny. They didn't say anything about fracking at all.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:21 | 3254682 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

as with anything, there can be failures of the 'well'....you can rupture the casing (pipe), you could blow out a casing shoe (concrete bottom or concrete seals in varying parts of the casing), or you could have a BOP blowout......but there are indications that the well has blown out.....then you could determine where it is blown and have an idea if there is even remotely any groundwater contamination potential.....

 

most oil/gas wells are deep >6000 feet. most water wells are no more than 200 feet. you do the math on the amount of 'earth' that is between the two.....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:09 | 3254562 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

ROTFLMAO....  The above post wins the award for Profound Stupidity....... I don't know were to start...  with no evidence of a single well contaminated by fracking or the implied belief that fracking will solve our middle east energy dependency.....

I would suggest you take the time to read about this little "super fund" site,  in Pavillion Wyoming, the attach link is to the EPA Report.

http://www.epa.gov/region8/superfund/wy/pavillion/

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:32 | 3255070 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

"The next scariest thing is that fracking will remove Terror and the Middle East from being the center of conversation as it has for the last 40 years."

Putting aside the marketing slogan about lets drill at home because it will remove these problems we have with the Middle East, it is just wrong. But, nice, very nice, even Stalin would have been proud of you as such propaganda slogans touch everone and at the same time has nothing to do with the technicality, EIOER or safety of the process.

But hay since we are on the wave of sloganism, I would put it in this way:

The next scariest thing is that fracking will NOT remove Terror and the Middle East from being the center of conversation because it does not address  the CORE of the pblem with OVERCONSUMPTION of Natural resources the US has. Only when US start to leave with its means, then we shell have Peace.

Sorry to sound as the Sith Lord in "The Revenge of the Sith".

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:48 | 3255740 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

If 'americans' do not manage to consume both the remaining resources in conventional oil/nat gas and stuff like shale nat gas, they will shame all their ancestors.

The very idea of the world 's resources to be enough to cover 'americans''consumption does not belong to 'americanism'

'Americans' consume as much resources as there are available.

Adding more inputs simply means 'americans' will consume more.

In time, 'americans' will achieve independence. When a site is depleted of its resources, one no longer depends on the site for the resources it no longer holds. One is independent.

This is the only independence 'americans' are able of. They wont know other independence than depletion of resources.

'Americans' growing independent of a resource when it is still available? Nah.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:31 | 3253954 Forbes
Forbes's picture

Scary, because Gasland is mostly fiction and fraud. Fracking has nothing to do with elements in the water long before fracking started. Anecdote is not data. Folks with their hand outstretched looking for a payday from deep pockets, is all. Do some simple research before spouting celebrity-promoted propaganda, sheeple.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:35 | 3253970 dark pools of soros
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wow what a fucktard...  simple research >> go drink a gallon of that poison or stop typing about it

 

simple enough?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:47 | 3254529 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I haven't seen Gasland and I don't care to.

For fracking to "work" successfully you need two key components.....  the rock you what to fracked is "softer than the surrounding rock" and a full understanding and mapping of the fault lines...  something the Oil and Gas patch boys in Texas have a real grasp for (they are the ones who have been using this tech for many years, google George Mitchell),,  you have neither of those conditions in the Marcellus Shale found in NYS and Penn.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:10 | 3254567 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

you have neither of those conditions in the Marcellus Shale found in NYS and Penn.

correct, that's why they're trying to rig the rules to commandeer as much land area as possible.  and yes, i watched Gasland but turned it off, b/c there was too much cheap propaganda for my tastes.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 00:09 | 3254996 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

First it is not fracing it is REFRACKING, just this tells you something form an engineering point of view ( if you have some IQ to realize it of course ).

Second, you actually need 4 things ( not 2 per your post ), if you ever wonder what these are just look here: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-01-04/shale-gas-and-fracking-jan-4

I am sure Dr. Ingraffea, will be very happy that his talks help people to be educated in the BASICS of the process.

And finally the third, "they are the ones who have been using this tech for many years" - I guess that under many years you have in mind something like 5-7, because if you listen carefully the above lecture, you will realize that all the needed technologies ( the 4 things needed, mentioned in "second" ), have become viable technologies ALL TOGETHER only in the quite recent years.

So, if you post something, please do not insult the analytical skills of the readers here, post intelligently misleading information ( at least ), otherwise do not bother to post at all.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:35 | 3254266 Sabastian
Sabastian's picture

Gasland is pure propaganda and dribble.  Take misrepresentations and the movie is as scary as Dr Who.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:04 | 3254036 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

THE SHALE ENERGY DELUSION

Here we can see the folks at the EIA and IEA are still putting out HYPE & GARBAGE.. nothing has changed.

Not only are the depletion rates for Shale Gas & Oil somethng like 40-50% first year and neary 80-90% by year 5, the EROI - Energy Returned on Invested is much lower than conventional oil and gas.

EROI for Shale Oil is about 4-5/1 and is probably lower due to the huge amount of drilling in the past few years.  Shale Gas is much higher... something like 50-70/1.  However, a great deal of that EROI ratio falls when you have to pay for pipeline and transmission costs.

Let's not forget a modern society as ours, needs at least a 10/1 EROI or higher to sustain itself.  Who cares if we have lots of shale oil... if the net energy is not enough to keep our way of living??  Does anyone in the ENERGY INDUSTRY ever think of that?  Or course not.

Anyhow, we get to watch again as the ENERGY INDUSTRY spews more HOPIUM, just like it did in 1999, when it said $10 a barrel oil would be here for a decade....LOL

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:44 | 3254526 greyghost
greyghost's picture

oh holy shit, simple math says that they wouldn't drill if there wasn't money to be made. eroi is just another worthless equation thunk up by some ass professor who never worked a real job.....ever

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:46 | 3254942 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

Your simple math is wrong due to a fundamentally inaccurate assumption that they are using their own money to drill. Guess what, they are doing it on CREDIT, and they DO NOT CARE but to get the money and show some extremely optimistic numbers, and who do you think will finally pay for all these inflated forecasts that will get down to Earth and crumble in the next 3-4 years. Sure enough, you, me and everyone else with their TAX ( and inflated ) $$$.

Brace for the impact, for it will not be pretty, and it will be COLD.

Unless of course you build your own Rocket Mass Burner, could not resist the joke ...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:29 | 3254704 alex_g
alex_g's picture

yet another idiot who doesn't know the difference between the words "depletion" and "decline".

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:41 | 3254738 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

alex_g... actually you are correct.  That should read decline rate.  I often type faster than I think.

However, typing the wrong word, doesn't change the fact the EROI is everything.  Here we can see that those who have the MENTALITY OF A GNAT still have a say.

GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:12 | 3253748 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Fugged about it. We dont want this shit here. Underground water reservoirs are much more precious than this.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:21 | 3253778 W74
W74's picture

Ogallala is uberfucked.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:01 | 3253883 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The question is how much water is still LEFT in the Olgalalla aquifer.... water levels are dropping fast    so at least the 'good' news is that we'll be contaminating LESS water with fracking fluid....

Truth is that the West is screwed when it comes to water with or without fracking - Read 'Cadillac Desert' - written in the 80's.   The real sin is tht we're destroying the water supplies in the Northeast (incuding NYC's reservoirs) in pursuit of a short term limited supply of gas.  Think of what the US did with the North Slope oil - no preparation or switch to renewable energy.  Instead we built big ass pickup trucks and SUV's.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:11 | 3253916 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Contaminating water? Excuse me, but I believe the phrase you're looking for is "aquifer replenishment & rehabilitation."

Please correct yourself in the future.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:25 | 3253788 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Flaming faucets, what's not to love?   ;)

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:12 | 3253918 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Endless supply of hot water on tap!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:27 | 3253950 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

Flaming faucets, what's not to love?   ;)

**********************************

The Gasland MOCKUMENTARY is a fraud ,, these areas have had gas bubbling into the shallow well water for thousands if not millions of years ... the shale deposits being fracked are seperated from the aquifer level by A BUNCH ..

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:37 | 3253976 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

ya, animals been dying around there for millions of years.. funny how they stayed there for so long through that eh?

 

or..  the place is turning into a toxic town..   energy companies never destroy environments right?  no history there right?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:39 | 3253817 Kitler
Kitler's picture

But we will never truly know how much more precious unless we can put both resources on the market at once!

Come on now... aren't you just a little curious to see your morning coffee water boil itself?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:18 | 3253760 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Shell plans to spend more than $400 million to tap into Ukrainian shale."

More bang for their buck if they spent $400 million to tap into Ukrainian females.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:14 | 3253921 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'd hit that for $400M?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:18 | 3253930 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I'm all in...   Those beautiful Ukranian women!

.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:06 | 3254042 walküre
walküre's picture

The late Colonel Muamar Gaddafi clearly had good taste.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:18 | 3253761 pingpongthesecond
pingpongthesecond's picture

Never knew KPMG employed geologists, or did their calculators do all the ground research for them...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:20 | 3253763 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

<removed>

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:21 | 3253775 W74
W74's picture

Poland has a lot of Coal in the Sileasian portion of the Carpathians and a lot of Amber in alluvial deposits, but other than that it's just farmland, and a few forests.  Nat gas might (might) be under the few remaining swamps, but perhaps it wasn't enough for Exxon.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:31 | 3253955 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

And what about their silver...?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:19 | 3253764 W74
W74's picture

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vrThsGmakQU/TLbfZ4BFvdI/AAAAAAAAAFA/XLv8g0rnZB...

 

Where's the Coal/Nat gas deposits and why?  I wish I had a better map of this.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:19 | 3253765 Whatta
Whatta's picture

EU can frack themselves.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:20 | 3253770 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

How about Scotland? Scientists were extracting "rock oil" from Scotch shale deposits before the first oil well was drilled.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:23 | 3254502 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

The difference between Shale Oil (which is REALLY CALLED Tight Oil that requires fracking and other "advances") and Oil Bearing Shale...  "sedimentary rock that contains solid hydrocarbons called kerogen (e.g., Green River Formation)," looks more like coal than oil, to get "Shale Oil" NOT TIGHT OIL..... you have to finish "cooking" the rock...... lots of energy and water, not feasible with today's technology, many times more intensive than tar sands.

The MSM has screwed up the usage of the terms.... not your fault.... and there is a world of difference, like calling coal, oil and thinking the two are interchangeable and "one and the same".

See Rapier's explanation on TOD

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9085

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:21 | 3253774 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Must. Suck. Out. Every. Last. Ounce.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:23 | 3253782 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

....Before.  Ponzi.  Collapses.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:21 | 3253776 ReeferMac
ReeferMac's picture

I don't see Eurpoeans allowing it w/ all the environmental concerns. Won't happen over there like here. Their politicians can't be bribed the same way their US counterpa... 

HAHAHAHHAA, Almost got it out w/o laughing that time, LOL!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:22 | 3253779 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Next for a shale gas boom?

Lol!

Here in America we are being told we are having a shale gas boom!  And prices are....

....rising?

Hmmm, I wonder why?

Could it be....EROEI?!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:02 | 3253887 kito
kito's picture

shale gas boom.......i often have that after eating too much dairy.................methane is the next big thing...............

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatulence

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:28 | 3253781 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm {Whistling Dixie} out of my ass~hole.  So Crude isn't profitable under$ 80 something a bbl. O h Wait, big oil will export crude to keep the prices fixed! Scum sucking parasites! All of them!   Fuck off big Oil! Record profit economy destroyers!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:24 | 3253786 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The Russians are secretly pouring millions into European environmental organizations to put a stop to fracking.  Russia does not want a gas boom in Europe to close out its largest market and environmentalists are their tool.

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:50 | 3254001 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You can bet that this green agenda is playing out in many places on many levels.

Otherwise, Gore would've never "cared."

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 20:07 | 3254470 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Link and source to support your statement please..........

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 23:22 | 3254857 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Russia has a pipeline to China - that will do for them - at least until the Chinese figure out thorium fission.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:26 | 3253790 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi are getting an early start on shale exploration campaigns in eastern European countries

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:31 | 3253797 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Poland shale gas reserves estimate was just last year slashed down 10x. Just for the sake of discussion.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:33 | 3253806 doggis
doggis's picture

"If EIA estimates are close to accurate, there may be enough shale gas in Romania to cover its energy needs for the next 40 years."

 

Dude this is ZEROHEDGE! please do your homework. This piece is garbage. Question: how accurate has EIA estimates been in the past? Indeed, if they have the Accuracy of a CBO - then i ask you "WHAT THE HELL!"

question - what IS the NET/NET from fracking? HOW MUCH ENERGY INPUT IS USED UP IN  ORDER TO RETRIEVE THE ENERGY OUTPUT OF SHALE NG?

huh? i hear crickets..............

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:43 | 3253830 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Xactly.
Energy wars.
To be continued.

Actually I have found recently very interesting info about nuclear fuel reserves in the world (HEU/LEU) and reprocessed military enriched U and available uranium by countries and enrichment facilities capacity. In short = west will run out within 3 years.

This will be even bigger shock than dollar collapse.

Hope i can post something more about it here in future ( source is russian)

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:54 | 3253859 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

OK,
Read here
http://crustgroup.livejournal.com/28261.html

Hope I can translate this for ZHedgers. But at least this.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:48 | 3254155 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Hmmmmmm.....? And Obummer is talking about decommissioning the nuke arsenal.  Hmmmmmm.......

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:20 | 3253934 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

In Pa and Ohio and Dakotas, what you are hearing are not crickets but new Hemi Challengers and F250 pickups En Regalia.

Landowners are getting paid up to $6000/acre to sign up for this tremendous negative cashflow.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-05-29/fracking-environment-gas/55845708/1

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:40 | 3253981 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

wow a whole $6000 ..  what a payday!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:58 | 3254172 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

That's per acre, plus roaylties which can range from 12% to 25% depending on the lease.  

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:07 | 3254558 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

First, the "landmen," or agents from drilling companies, show up offering three- to six-year drilling leases to property owners. The payoff can be as little as $15 an acre or up to $6,000 an acre, producing a new class of wealthy landowners, though some have used the windfall to simply pay off old farm debts.

this reads to me that royalties are included.   the only way landowners are going to get $6k/acre is if a motherload is hit on their land.   of course, with horizontal fracking, much of that 'motherload' could actually exist on someone else's property.  

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:41 | 3253823 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Gas in Europe?  LOL.  There will be enough to pop some popcorn, maybe.  And the price will be the permanent fouling of all of Europe's water and air.  Plus the fjords will melt.  Europe's temperature will skyrocket by .0000001 degrees.

WHAT ABOUT THE MANATEES??????

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:47 | 3253838 frenchie
frenchie's picture

...

i see only foreign yid companies on the hook

sad for the  locals...

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:50 | 3253845 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

So this means big oil wins again and re-newables get buried again. Great. Let's just leave it for our progeny to solve this issue too.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:55 | 3253860 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

eddiebe

If the dollar crashes suddenly the renewables will look very good. It is not possible to have them be cost effective in the USA when we print the reserve currency and use it the way we do. The 'exorbitant privilege' was great while it lasted....distortions and all....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:15 | 3254212 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the greatest blessing to the world would be for the Arab countries to decide to throttle back their production; to not waste it in the current mad mayhem of consumerism. you would see the spurt into alt energies then spike.

THis decision is all political and societal : what sort of world do we want to live in? 

We have depleted our resources built over  millions  of years in TWO SHORT centuries; think of that, and for what????

SO that these extractive empires can rule the new oligarchy world on fiat+oil devastation?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:52 | 3253850 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Is the EROEI off because of the need to re-re-re-frack or just due to high input costs up front? With great waves of optimism sweeping the land one hears little about the problems of fracking (except the questionable evnvironmental ones).

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:56 | 3253864 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Yep, they will frack for fracking.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:56 | 3253867 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fracking isn't the problem. It's all about "price structure". Excess crude will be exported to maintain the machine!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:46 | 3254748 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

Clearly you have no idea about the industrial scale of the process and in addition its low EIOER.

Please check the facts and educate yourself before writing nonsense.

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:57 | 3253868 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

the western european environuts will never let it happen.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 15:59 | 3253875 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Whom should we believe? Josh Fox "Gasland" or ANGA, America's Natural Gas Alliance?

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 21:13 | 3254571 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

neither, investigate both sides of the issue and make an informed decision for yourself.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:05 | 3253884 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

The American Indians had the same problem with a fracking operation forced upon them by the early colonists.

Ethan Allen and his treachorous Green Mountain Boys poisoned entire native nations and polluted the landscape of Western NY in their quest for the filthy black gold.  The methane leaks in the sacred hunting grounds of the Navahoe persist to this day. 

http://blogs.agu.org/magmacumlaude/2010/11/12/gas-seeps-in-western-ny/

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:07 | 3253899 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Not to worry if we suck the planet dry of any energy, pollute all the wwater suplpies and poison the soil.  Jesus will be returning and we'll all be saved - or so the fundies think.....

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:12 | 3253917 Nassim
Nassim's picture

Funny how Poland has a big circle and ExxonMobil is listed as an explorer. In fact, they drilled a few holes and found that the gas was 50% nitrogen and withdrew.

 

ExxonMobil ends shale gas tests in Poland

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e883fdc-b94c-11e1-b4d6-00144feabdc0.html

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:19 | 3253932 jubber
jubber's picture

Australia is the next one up

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:25 | 3253949 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

Did the writer not do the homework on Poland's reserves?  Several major players are dropping serious coin over the next 10 years as soon as the tree worshippers and the Russians get out of the way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/fracking-boom-delayed-by-kites-as-poland-seeks-gas-independence.html

BTW, how many of these comments are on the payroll of the Kremlin and Israel?   There a lot of interest on their part to not make Europe and the US dependent on Commie and Middle East oil.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 16:54 | 3254014 falak pema
falak pema's picture

fart assed turds all over europe, who wants to open up the can of smelly bangers n mash?

Its a pity that mankind has not found a better way rather than destroy the planet by making it into poisoned gruyere cheese; like Cherno and Fuku.

Its not that human intelligence is dead, its that its stifled by short Term ROI, the essence of Reaganomics, via Saud oil pumping n dumping and western addiction to it, and Thatcher's mayhem in North Sea. Along with the collateral goodies of Allah O akbar and Jehovah's zionist witnesses at loggerheads. What a scene out of a Groucho Marx movie like ' duck soup'.

We are such suckers for masochistic punishment. Freud was right and Darwin must be laffing in his grave; I hate to think what good ole Marx must think about us oligarchical c*** suckers.  

Poor old Aldous HUxley... all that brilliance for nothing. 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:00 | 3254032 Aztec Warrior
Aztec Warrior's picture

To cut "greenhouse gases", Europe will burn 2 gallons worth Shale Gas to grow biodiesel crops and then convert those to half a gallon of "green biodiesel" to use. #manbearpig

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:06 | 3254043 epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

Better educate your self what Shale Gas ( natural and unnatural, sorry could not resist the joke )  and Oil is: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-01-04/shale-gas-and-fracking-jan-4

Look for Dr. Anthony Ingraffea lecture. 105 minutes dense with memorable information and 101 in Engineering, for those of you who never studied anything reasonably quantitative. The science oriented minds will just enjoy it!

Not sure how this will play in Europe that is about 4 denser populated ( and in some regional places up to 10-15 times on average ) than US, and people are a lot better science educated ( can better understand the risks ) and a lot more environmentally conscious. But one is clear people are a lot better prepared to say no to such (poisonous) development.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:22 | 3254085 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture
Is Europe Next For A Shale Natural Gas Boom?

NO.

Only a few countries are considering this seriously and even there, progress is glacial. This will not weaken dependence on Russian imports even if a crash program is implemented - unlikely. 

The USA is also still an importer of natural gas.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:23 | 3254087 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

All the information' about this massive revolution in natural gas is coming from highly reliable lying sacks of shit companies such as Shell and Chevron. Where is the independent analysis? A: there is none that supports the shale gas story.

 

Meanwhile:

 

"shale natural gas could add another $118 billion to the country's gross domestic product by 2015 and triple to $231 billion by 2035!"

 

Then again it could not. Rig counts in natgas plays are declining. In fracking plays where depletion rates are 90% by year 2, increased drilling is necessary to maintain flat rates of extraction. The current Henry Hub price is too low to support more fracking holes ... meanwhile, higher prices constrain demand and final sales. 

 

It is hard to see how gas companies are going to meet existing contracts if there is a decrease in the drilling. Meanwhile current exploration in E. Europe and China are turning up dry holes b/c the play structures do not produce as do US shales.

 

Time will tell, but generally something too good to be true is.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:56 | 3254099 razorthin
razorthin's picture

They need to find the right secret sauce.  Fracking attempts in Europe so far have been disappointing.  More toluene and xylene perhaps.  Must compete with the Japanese I-131, you know.

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 17:42 | 3254137 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Yeah people, let's waste our precious drinking water so the Shell people and other mofos can cash in those big fat bonuses. Let's continue the 21st century using fossil fuel extracted by 20th century technology. If Shell and the likes are done, privatised water companies in Europe will charge €20 for a liter of clean drinking water. Because privatization of drinking water is next on the agenda of the democratic -ahum- EU, right after having a free-trade -ahum- agreement with the US which will kill small farms in Europe, overflow Europe with hormone infested American meat, with GMO which is poison and with cars that break down after three years. Way to go Europe, kill the future!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 18:57 | 3254287 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Hard to counter this thingy...............

http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Incremental_crude_Eu...

The North Sea was a big beast once.

 

Now not so much.

 

As for Gas ?

Well very fast depletion is inevitable when you libralize your utility sector.

 

Nuclear & coal investment stopped for the infamous dash for gas journey.

 

 

Eurostat energy production and dependence rates 2008 -2011.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/8-13022013-BP/EN/8-13022013-BP-EN.PDF

Lithuania has gone through what appears a second post Soviet collapse with the closure of its unit 2 reactor in dec 2009.

A 24.5 % collapse in consumption is major war stuff.

 

 

Lithuania import dependence was 51.2 % in 2009
81.8 % in 2011.

 

 

Germany is in a very poor energy dependence position.
Almost as bad as Greece.

Greece Y2009 : 67.8 %
Y2011 : 65.3 %

Germany Y2009 : 61.6 %
Y2011 : 61.1 %
Not much of a improvement despite the much vaunted energy fetishes that Germany gets up to.
2012 is likely to be much worse for Germanys import dependency given their Nuclear shutdown policy.
It may indeed reach Greek levels soon !!!

In contrast France seems much more successful for the moment (although  some factions within the socialist party wish to shut down the French nuclear programme also)

French energy import dep.
Y2009 : 51.3 %

Y2011 : 48.9 %

This is a result of the foundation like sci -fi islands it has built.
http://www.sytral.fr/

 

The energy crisis in Europe is a result of market state policies post 1980 /86

Europe is not a nation state , its a large Amsterdam like Entrepot economy

 

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-12-051/EN/KS-SF-12-051-EN.PDF

This means the banks will just produce "assets" to burn through the capital base as fast as possible.

 

Who cares if they get another 5 years out of this ?

Another 5 years of this means even less capital to play with when this is all over.

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:34 | 3254379 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Nuclear electricity % change Jan - Nov 2011 - 12.

 

Belgium :  -15.1 %

France   : -4.3 %

Germany : -8.6%

 

Gas / renewables can only replace these decline rates for a very short time if at all.

 

All industrial systems need subsidy

Nation states use subsidy to increase redundancy within their own borders.

Trading banking republics always extract from colonies , thus reducing their own internal redundancy so as to increase short term wealth.

Before the post 1980 period of globalization each western country was a mixture of these two systems

After 1980 they all became extreme trading / global banking market states.

Therefore there was a further loss of redundancy within the system.

 

 

Europe post 1980 / 1986 ~ has  made a choice to subsidize the banking system (external extraction) over the Nuclear energy system.

 

It will implode........shortly.

 

Its no more then a Giant Belgium without a Congo.

 

Fucked.

 

 

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:27 | 3254392 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

lasvegas,

 Yes! I would just like to add that sometimes it is worth while for government to get involved to create infrastructure. After all they do it all the time with insane ventures. (Non-provoked war comes to mind, for one. To do something worthwhile like renewables will of course not be allowed to happen by TPTB until it is in their own best interest.) A shame!

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 19:32 | 3254402 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

IEA Nov report………

http://www.iea.org/stats/surveys/natgas.pdf

Italy is indeed imploding (notice its gas market is /was very large)
Almost as big as Japan in 2010.
And pretty much of German scale.

Gross consumption (million cubic metres)

Y2010 : 82,983
Y2011 : 77,832
Y2012 : -4.6 % (Percentage change over corresponding period (beginning of year to current month) of previous year.)
Nov 12 vs Nov 11 : -16.6 %

Japans consumption has exploded since nuclear shutdown.
Y2010 : 100 ,285
Y2011 : 112,588
Y2012 : + 11.2 %
Nov 12 vs Nov 11 : +9.4 % :

Korea consumption also very much up.

Dutch consumption is also tanking at -7.7 %
UK – 5.8 %
Spain – 3.8 %

Of the smaller consumers
Finland down -13.5 %
Greece – 9.7 %
Hungary – 8.6%
Portugal – 11.5 %

Israel -36.8 % !!!!

French & German consumption slightly up……………

 

The entire European gas market is rolling over into the abyss.

Gas Consumption OECD EUROPE
Y2008 : 553,541 phony war
Y2009 : 526 ,936 crisis ……..bombing begins
Y2010 : 560,387 recovery ? the few bankers save the day.
Y2011 : 515 ,617 crisis worse then 1940.
Y2012: by November 1943 : -2.7%

Mon, 02/18/2013 - 22:44 | 3254746 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

All good Dork,but it doesn't matter, we have an instinct to consume, this instinct expresses it's self through all this huge expenditure on things which don't help us survive, which, we are now becoming aware,  hasten our demise, why is every light lit in every office building in New York or Chicago, or any other Big town in America? because the generators are consuming for someone, and consuming for all, no 0ne sees this misallocation of society's energy, because it all seems just and proper, but is it really, no matter how much energy we discover if consumption is going to rise, just because it can, and instinct silently and unconsciously urges us to consume all we can personally, and draw satisfaction from the Bacchanallia happening all around us! We have to confront that instinctual expression and redirect that energy into something which can help us survive?Time is probably short for these changes to happen and in the end nothing matters anyway so relax with your greatest pleasure and let the World takecare of it's self for a while!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 03:19 | 3255390 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Natgas boom?  In the face of near historical lows in natgas?  Not so sure about that.

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/natgas-weekly-breaks-channel-support/

 

But this is more hopium Europe looks for on  a daily basis.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:43 | 3255470 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Remember when there was a big battle over drilling for oil in the US ‘drill baby drill’…   Since most conventional oil as well as most offshore (other than arctic I guess) sources were fair game… I wondered what they were talking about…

 

I now suspect the battle was over whether or not to frack for oil and gas… with strong concerns at the top levels regarding selling out the environment…    Other countries are resisting (so far) including Europe – see Australia protests shut down fracking  www.smh.com.au/environment/agl-suspends-coal-seam-gas-wells-application-20130208-2e2cr.html 

 

I suspect this process is environmentally ruinous…  but that big oil has big power in the US and has as usual bribed the right people to allow this push (note that frackers are EXEMPT from the Clean Water Act in the US).

 

It’s not like this technology is brand new… it’s been around for awhile… I suspect it just took a bit of time to get all the red tape out of the way… and of course for energy costs to rocket up enough to justify the costs:

 

However, it was only in 1998 that modern fracturing technology, referred to as horizontal slickwater fracturing, made possible the economical extraction of shale gas; this new technology was first used in the Barnett Shale in Texas  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 04:59 | 3255473 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The end of CHEAP energy = the End of Growth.

What we are experiencing in the economy are the first symptoms of this.  Fracking does little to mitigate because it is simply another source of very expensive energy and it comes nowhere near replacing conventional cheaper sources of energy that are depleting rapidly. 

Growth tracks fossil fuels almost perfectly:  http://akarlindotcom.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/us-exergy-services-supp...

Things will get progressively worse year after year.

 

And btw who was that Jackovitch CEO who said he drank fracking fluid?  I've got a 1000 bucks for him if he will agree to do this (again...) but on video this time round.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 09:50 | 3255749 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Another disaster in the making.

Thing is as usual with 'americans', dont be on the wrong side of the disaster, be the one who is going to milk it and will run an extortion of the weak, farming of the poor business on people who will be on the wrong side.

Hedge accordingly. Hedge 'american'.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:03 | 3257711 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

Energy is life and with the negative cash flows on all the animal worshipping "green" sources, NG is the only short term prospect.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:56 | 3258097 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Maybe important to notice is that wre it says 'Germany' in the oval it in fact is The Netherlands. But heee you're Americans, you're stupid.

 

“Does anyone care what Americans think? They’re the worst-educated people in the First World.

They don’t have any thoughts, they have emotional responses, which good advertisers know how to provoke”

 

“We’ll have a dictatorship soon in the US”

 

“This isn't a country, it's an American aircraft carrier.”

 

Gore Vidal

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