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Shanghai Gold Exchange Volume Soars To Record As India Gold Imports Surge To 18 Month High
While the recent move in gold lower, attributed primarily to the fickle rotations of assorted hedge funds who have gotten crushed on their AAPL holdings and thus forced to liquidate profitable positions mostly in ETFs and other paper gold representations (as demand for physical precious metals has never been greater), has seen many pundits scream (as they do every year) that the move higher in gold and precious metals is over, what everyone as usual forgets is that the big move up in gold in 2011 was not driven by Soros or Paulson or Einhorn buying (or selling) laughable amounts of the yellow metal but by relentless end consumer demand out of China and India, when inflation was surging. And with the entire world now openly reflating the one country that has the lowest buffer to hot external money - China - is about to see prices for all products go parabolic once more. It's just a matter of time. Of course, last week's Lunar New Year and closed exchanges bought some time for the bearish gold thesis, but that is now over, quite literally with a bang as demand out of both China and India explodes out of the gates, proving that the sensible money is merely waiting for every dip in the PM complex to buy.
As GoldCore reports, gold volumes for the benchmark cash contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange soared to a record today (see chart below), as the market re-opened after the New Year’s week long holiday and bargain hunters started buying.
The volume for bullion of 99.99% purity exceeded 22,000 kilograms (22 metric tons), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices fell 2.8% to 327.25 yuan/gram ($1,630.29/oz) as of 5:04 p.m. Singapore time.
“Chinese investors returned to the market today after the holiday, and the slump in gold prices in the past week provided great incentive for buying as many Chinese are still holding a bullish outlook on gold,” Qu Mingyu, a trader at Bank of China Ltd., the 4th largest lender
by assets, commented today.
As for India, this article from the Gulf Today should put to rest any worries that Indians have, after centuries of treating gold as true money, suddenly stopped doing so after a brief 10% pullback.
India’s gold imports surge 23% in January
India’s gold imports in January surged 23 per cent from a year ago to their highest in 18 months as traders snapped up supplies ahead of a hike in duty, undermining the government’s efforts to control a ballooning current account deficit.
The world’s top bullion buyer imported 100 tonnes of gold last month, the head of the Bombay Bullion Association said on Friday. This is about 40 per cent more than the country’s average monthly imports last year.
“The total imports figure for 2012 was around 860 tonnes, so 100 tonnes in a month is too high. Also oil is trading firm above $95 (per barrel), so this will impact the oil import bill and overall deficit targets,” said Navneet Damani, associate vice president with Motilal Oswal Commodities.
Alarmed by the mounting current account deficit that hit a record 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product in July-September the government moved to rein in its gold imports - second only to oil in value - by raising the import duty on the precious metal to 6 per cent from 4 per cent on Jan.21.
“So many people imported and dumped gold after rumours from the first week of January of an import duty hike. People waited for the duty to increase and earn more profits,” said Mohit Kamboj, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.
The government will announce its budget for the year beginning April 1, 2013 on Feb.28 and if gold imports continue apace, traders are concerned New Delhi may take further action to curb demand.
The Reserve Bank of India has indicated it could limit gold imports by banks, which corner about 60 per cent of the supply, if the deficit remains at 5.5-6 per cent of GDP for the next three to four quarters
Given India’s passion for the precious metal, traders and industry experts expect any impact from the Jan.21 duty hike to be short term. They see imports tapering off in February and March and the bearish mood lifting after that.
Gold is considered a sign of wealth and good fortune, and is traditionally given at weddings and festivals in India.
Demand could be as much as 965 tonnes in 2013, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, without giving an estimate for imports. In 2012, imports accounted for virtually all the demand of 864 tonnes at 860 tonnes - down 11.25 per cent from a year ago, partly as a result of a previous tax hike.
Spot gold prices have gained for the last 12 years and its attraction, while Indian inflation continues to eat into returns from other investments, remains high.
If prices do not rise any more in the next two to three months, buying will re-emerge, said Daman Prakash Rathod, director with Chennai-based MNC Bullion. India’s fiscal deficit is expected to reach 5.3 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of March.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/18/gold-mint-idUSL6N0BI2YX20130218
Britain's Royal Mint has started to manufacture gold sovereign coins in India for the first time in almost 100 years, it said on Monday.
That's impressive... I didn't think they actually had any gold.
They don't. They borrow it.
India has a very simple Gold strategy. They keep their volume in inverse proportion to their water table.
India Should Join The Modern Western Whirld,
And Buy All Thier GOLD On PAPER, And Stored At Secret Wharehouses On "The Fuck Knows Where Street"...
"fuck knows" - that's biblically redundant.
So, is that different than buying the Stairway to Heaven?
'attributed primarily to the fickle rotations of assorted hedge funds who have gotten crushed on their AAPL holdings and thus forced to liquidate profitable positions mostly in ETFs and other paper gold representations'-
WTF. When you're getting crushed on an asset you don't sell something else, you either buy a short or sell it. You still have to book the loss at months end regardless.
Time to stop with the excuses, the pm market is just as manipulated as the Treasury market, and there is no good reason to say other. If silver was fairly priced there would be no need for HSBC to go and buy 180,000 ounces of silver because supply would equal demand. They had to buy silver because demand is far outstripping supply, period, and they short it heavily with paper to floor the price whilst they still can with paper money backed by your taxes.
Quit with the excuses, please...
We are giving our assets away on the cheap so that politicians can claim to be doing a good job. They are selling us out and they should be hanging from trees. Period.
AND On It Goes ... NYC SELLS And Chinee BUYS ...
Shanghai Gold Exchange benchmark contract volume jumps to recordBy Glenys Sim and Feiwen Rong
Bloomberg News
Monday, February 18, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-18/shanghai-gold-exchange-benchmar...
Gold volumes for the benchmark cash contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange climbed to a record today as the market re-opened after a weeklong break and lower prices lured buyers.
The volume for bullion of 99.99 percent purity exceeded 22,000 kilograms (22 metric tons), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices dropped 2.8 percent to 327.25 yuan a gram ($1,630.29 an ounce) as of 5:04 p.m. Singapore time. Markets were closed last week for the Lunar New Year holiday.
"Chinese investors returned to the market today after the holiday, and the slump in gold prices in the past week provided great incentive for buying as many Chinese are still holding a bullish outlook on gold," Qu Mingyu, a trader at Bank of China Ltd., the nation's fourth-largest lender by assets, said by phone from Shanghai today.
"pride goeth before the fall"
The price of gold continues to correct. Still no sign of a turnaround in the short term. High levels of gold buying in China and India may have consequences in the future. I mean the speed and extent of recovery of the gold price. Of course, when this happens.
Might as well get some....it's on sale.
Ben Shalom takes your grandkid's money and slams PMs so he can even he can buy it cheap......he ain't nobody's fool.
True, the elite hate being called a nobody
The thing that gets me as far as jewelry demand, is this humorous notion that "because most gold is traded due to jewelry demand, it's merely a commodity, not money", as if that were some sort of excuse for "price volatility"/suppression. Let's examine that for a moment:
Scenarios:
1. You give a lady $5000 USD and say "will you marry me?"
2. You give a lady a gold ring with a diamond that cost you $5000 and say "will you marry me?"
Consider, this is (at base) a request for vaginal exclusivity for an extensive period of time (up to and including potentially life). This is the most prized thing a woman possesses. In scenario 1, you would be on the receiving end of a triple-pimp slap and and admonishment "what do you think I am, some kind of two-bit whore!?" In scenario 2, you would have a decent chance of trading that ring for potentially lifetime vaginal exclusivity.
Now, why would a woman get pissed about USD's, but happy about a gold/diamond ring? Consider another scenario:
1. You give a dude $2 trillion ZIM's (zimbabwe dollars) and say "will you marry my daughter?"
2. You give a dude 5 goats and say "will you mary my daughter?"
Similar concept here. You would be insulting your own daughter by offering such toilet paper in scenario 1.
Point?
All commodities are money in some way, shape, form, or fashion. If it can be traded, it is money. Gold is particularly good functionally as money, but really anything of value (even actual toilet paper) is going to be a better thing to store your wealth in than fiat paper/digits.
and yet the price in fiat remains range bound. No manipulation there... This should end well (like it has every other time moral hazard and fraud runs wild - world war).
I strongly disagree. I wouldn't be stacking if I expected WW III anytime soon.
But I am keeping some cash to burn through it with pleasure in the unlikely event you are correct.
You'll be burning through it in your fireplace
Yep. All those hedge fund managers are right. Looks like a gold bear market to me.
Turn those machines back on Mortimer or some such expression...I hate holidays.
Good heavens, this story should be worth about 35 more stories and interviews on King World News.
Until it gets hacked.......again.
Hehe, yeah, man, no shit!
I have to wonder who is doing it.
Charlie Munger.... Culprit.
Big cash buys talent.
Even 'hacking' talent.
Who's got the "big cash"? And if they run short, they just print more!
What better way to combat the 'truth' on the net, then hacking and taking down the truth tellers?
Just sayin. Follow the money.
Those leopold 20's are looking mighty cheap right now!
I'm sorry, but when I hear "leopold", I can only think of this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt1V61SPI_w
Nothin like a good party...
I'm ready for a St. Feuillien blonde.
Waiting 9/10 bears then sale begins
down trend will hit reality
wade release soon
29.25-35 silv
1550-60 gold
JMFO
The real price of gold and silver is how many fiats you need to part with to get it physically in your possession. Right now, that is about 1,690 USD/oz. gold and 35 USD/oz. silver.
correct, the decoupling is accelerating.
like everything else
I was looking if someone will comment on the price.
The article says that on SGA it fell to $1,630/oz. According to Kitco, it didn't cross $1,615/oz.
The delta may be something worth tracking in coming weeks and months...
To your point: I buy physical (e.g. last Friday, silver) at a low mark-up and I'm not seeing any shortages or extraordinary mark-ups and never have. Sometimes I wonder if some of you get your stuff from stores that don't sell a lot, but I know there have been posts that of relatively significant premium even at large dealers... That's why I can't say to have a good answer to that mystery of higher prices you're seeing in your neck of the woods.
Shortages and markups vary wildly from one part of the world to another.
I think the US markup on silver is gigantic, can't judge shortages personally.
The markup in PIIGS is also huge, for both gold and silver, especially gold. (silver is a special case, carries VAT). There is not much retail demand for phys.
No shortages in SE Asia, markups on goldlarger than in PIIGS as I've seen.
What part of the world are you in?
Depends what you are buying.. Here 10oz brand new Silver bars 59 cents overspot, Delivered FREE.
http://www.tulving.com/bullion/ntr_10_oz_999_bu_silver_bars.htm
And Gold coins special 30$ over spot Free delivery
http://www.tulving.com/Australian/2013_kangaroo_9999_1_oz_gold.htm
Great company, I alway buy from them, cheapest prices, Free overnight delivery.
Nearly all Indians are aware that their Governments are corrupt and that banks cannot be trusted/depended on .Now with the scams galore
it only reinforces their thinking and actions.
They also know that the paper currency they use has reducing value each day.
For centuries the rural Indian has always saved his wealth by holding/buying gold and silver only.
From what i hear from friends in India, it appears that after the British left India, an Italian empress is now doing the looting along with her cohorts.
I had never even considered that they may have blown the fake gold market bubble so large (in order to divert and dilute money from the physical market) that the effect of margin selling or damage control because of losses in stocks like AAPL (even though CFTC is lowering margins on gold as fast as they can) or fund redemption could collapse the paper market at the same time the world is scrambling to secure as much real physical gold as possible. The question is where does the line cross between the influence of paper being flushed and scarcity of real gold cross ? How low can GLD go ? Where ever that line is, either right here or 20 points lower is where it finally becomes obvious to all what's going on and the gold market is going to explode higher and never look back.
History has a very clear answer to your questions. Simply put, all paper promises can easily go to zero. When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law. Some things never change.
I mean I was aware of all the everyday manipulation going on but this margin selling in GLD and SLV could develop into a storm that even JPM didn't see coming and it's influence on physical gold which is getting smaller and smaller could create a major opportunity to back up the truck in real gold (if you can find it) before most folks realize what's going on.
Watch the premiums on physical gold and siliver (currently about 4.5% and 14%, respectively, depending on where you look). Those spreads are a proxy for the paper-physical decoupling and give a better indicator of the real price.
correct, moreover, "most folks" are completely oblivious to these things. Stupid fucking sheep that are nothing more than cannon fodder at the end of the day. It is what it is, move on and protect yourself and family.
It's a self feeding fraud - resource depletion I think. The fraud has never been worse because the credit systems have never been so far removed from a real economy based on physical things and valid promises looking forward. The fraud increases justified by those in power trying to hide it or the stupid ones thinking more of the same solves it. I debate which one is the greater force but my "criminal" instincts and history bend me in one direction.
my "criminal" instincts and history bend me in one direction.
Not sure what image you were shootin' for with that word choice, Davey... Great post though.
a prison, priestly & politician comment korner
lol...very nice.
Had to, presidents day and all
I was thinking about presidents day and maybe we should have a class presidents day instead and use it as a holiday. I know they're not historically important, but they've caused less destruction.
the banking cartel is just one big bunga bunga circle jerk party.
It makes me wonder whether people are also losing faith in Eric Sprott and PHYS & PSLV where the premiums to NAV have plummented to record lows (PHYS = 1.22%, PSLV = 1.39%).
"Possession is 10/10ths the Law," my Dad used to say.
Russia, China, India and probably a few others are hoarding gold. So WHO is dumping it to keep prices down so low? I don't think I will like the answer.
They're dumping paper.
hummm........ Let me see, 1 nice new soft shiny coin to go in my boat or 3 shares of Apple stock held in my brokers name and I get a pretty little green light turned on that says I own it and the SEC has my back. Boy that was easy, next question.
"The volume for bullion of 99.99% purity exceeded 22,000 kilograms (22 metric tons), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices fell 2.8% to 327.25 yuan/gram ($1,630.29/oz) as of 5:04 p.m. Singapore time."
22 metric tons, while prices fell 2.8%. Gotta love this stuff right here.
heavy buying pressure in physical markets creates downard price movevment now dont ya know. Its only buying pressure in PAPER markets that levitates the price. Its the new normal Bunga Bunga time!
12 year bull market in gold is ending. Ironic but true.
I blame if all on 3D printers really.
6000 year bull market in gold will never end as long as there is still one politician.
I feel the same way about teenage prostitution
Na, the only thing that's ending is the consolidation period. It could go down, but I'm inclined to think gold spot price will continue to follow BASE money supply which would, eventually, put it it around $2,800/oz.
But, who knows... We do live in Bizarro World.
12 year bull market in gold is ending. Ironic but true.
You must be right, WTF2. 'cuz the price of gold has never been manipulated...er, fallen...at any time in the past 12 years. /s
BTW, why would it be "ironic"? Sounds like you have no conviction, just repeating someone else's sentiment...
I say ironic because the bullish arguments have great merit on their face. But markets are ironic at bottems and tops. That is why so many get caught and ultimately whipsawed. Gold is up 8 fold from the 2000 bottom and that more then accounts for the inflation and economic collaspes we have had since the mega gold rally started.
On manipulation, it is quite possible that the Great Bernake will help pop the bubble as an argument for his engineered economic recovery arguement. So I am short SLV which will fall even faster.
Gold is up 8 fold from the 2000 bottom
How much debt has the US acquired during that time? Are you skipping class to post on ZH?
Get Zee Gold you obviously hav an axe to grind.
Well I'm not handing out participation trophies.
I'd rather grind an axe than a population
Do you clean Jamie Dimon's toilet and are reading his scribblings on the stall walls?
(btw, the ones who get 'whipsawed' are the ones who think they can recognize bottoms and tops...know anyone like that?)
Mayhem Korner stay flexible and stop name dropping.
Start making valid points are he probably would.
I'd take "substantive" points, "valid" seems way off in the distance for him...
it's like Pluto
not the dog
but he is obedient
So I am short SLV which will fall even faster.
"Never short a dull market"--and it would be hard to find a duller market than silver, which has been chopping sideways in a flat channel since September of 2011. The gold markets are notoriously difficult to trade because the price is managed by the central banks as they themselves have said repeatedly, and because gold is NOT just a commodity, nor does it trade like other commodities. Gold is a referendum on the stability of fiat money, as Volcker himself noted. The gold "crop" is not relevant because gold is not consumed like coffee or cocoa or cotton.
And silver is gold on crack. If you're not incredibly nimble (and lucky) you'll want to have a basket ready for your head.
> bottems and tops.
When I see how you spelled that, I sense you might be just as clueless in other areas as well. Such as money matters, for instance.
Yawn...
PM longs should take profits and say thank you very much Mr. Market. Am I in great risk if I say I like the US dollar vs the Euro?
For the most part, "PM longs" here are in the same building as their position and not about to give that position up. (We call it a "stack", btw). And so long as the "market", as you call it, is sponsoring a 4-digit USD price for paper Au, few if any of us are going to even blink at these machinations.
As to your question, the fact that you are debating a choice between fiat currencies means you're entire line of thinking is risk-incoherent...
Arguing the virtues of one fiat over another is like making a bet on who will be named the smartest retard. In the end, they're all still retards.
SLV and GLD ARE NOT metals...they're paper...and shorting them may seem smart - if not for the fact that only "greater fools" are still playing that game at all.
Phys. is reality, and reality hasn't even BEGUN to assert itself yet.
You will be a candidate for the Darwin Awards in due time.
WTF? Did I miss the blowoff top, you know,where the 'cash for gold stores all switched over and were selling gold to the public, and people were lining up to buy real gold, and talking about it constantly around the office and at parties?
Or I get it, this is a special bull market, that just ends gently, so everybody can get out in time, plenty of room at the exits. Gee, thas's so nice - not really characteristic of bull markets in general, and gold bull markets in particular, but still nice of TPTB to let us all have some time to come to our senses.
Thanks for the heads-up.
Who turned off the printers to end the bull market?
Who created positive savings rates?
Is the bond market suddenly sound?
WTF. WTF?
No,no ATM, you and I must have missed the memo that WTF2 got - Wall Street and TPTB have decided that this time instead of fucking over the public by drawing them into the parabolic final phase of a manic bull market, they're going to call it off early and spare the masses the humilation of being bagholders.
It's really out of character for Wall Street and the FIs but I guess they're feeling contrite after all the swindling and thievery of the past 6 years especially, and have decided to make it up to all of us by calling off the parabolic end-phase of the gold-bull. And don't even think about stuff like supply constraints, and global demand - fuck, who you going to trust - Chinese, Indian rand Russian etail demand figures and central bank buying, or the good samaritans of the US investment industry like Warren Buffet, Charley Munger, Dennis Gartman, etc.?
I'm just glad WTF2 showed up to give us the heads-up, otherwise I might get sucked into worrying about the value of my paper money and be tempted to turn it into a real asset.
wow, sophistacated analysis and charts to go along with the call... thanks. I'm selling all of my PM's today & getting my hands on as many 30 year treasury notes as I can.
+1 for the comment and the moniker. Wonder how many here remember Reilly, Gene Rayburn, and the cast of characters on Match Game...
CNR was a legend in his own right. Queerer than a $3 bill, but his perfromance in Cannoball Run II was Oscar worthy.
His repartee/banter with Bret Somers on Match Game '74 was classic.
He'll always be Hollywood Squares to me.
Treasuries? You pussy. JGBs and Gilts are where the real action is.
yeah right, fiat currencies look more and more robust as days go by. debt is sustainable, payable and slowly diminishing. young people find jobs, get married, make lots of children. the barbaric relic has run its course. finally, the bright days are upon us. /sarc
I take the -11 to 0 as a strong argument for why the top is in for gold and silver.
comment bookmarked. stay around, don't get lost, ok?
Top was $300 ago. WTF have you been?
I take the -11 to 0 as a strong argument for why the top is in for gold and silver.
---As if the rowdy fringe at ZH represented a broad cross sample of mainstream investment sentiment. Duh. Contrarian Theory is contrary to the mass of investors, not some narrow sliver of cranky bastards. I think you posted an actual photo of yourself for avatar.
Though doth protest too much.
The bull market in gold is not ending. It is being ended. I suspect you'd have to outwait the "system" and the chaos that follows for the possibility of the real value of PMs to emerge.
In the long run......
Go long AAPL and short Silver. Also, there are some great deals on Condos in Vegas right now...oh wait Cramer is on I gotta run..
TahoeBilly real estate and value stocks are not crazy investments like you suggest. As a matter of fact I bet both out perform gold. Cramer that guy is a loser has been never been.
Real estate outperform gold going forward?
Now that's bold if not reckless. Put your money where your mouth is if not already and let us know how it goes please.
I think he meant outperform as in the rate taxes can increase on it... right?
Whiteshadowmovements other account.
WTF2
Keep the stand up comedy coming !
... and the spelling lessons.
Cyaz.
Death Cross http://wallstreetsectorselector.com/2013/02/golden-death-cross-weekly-go...
Ahh yes technicals. Because those have proven so accurate in predicting the moves in this manipulated farce of a market.
WTF2, Death Cross on Weekly? What a Bullshit! Do you even care to check the weekly chart???
200MA on weekly at about 1415, spot price 200$ away from 200MA on weekly.
And on Daily it doesn't matter, cause it's already been crossing back and forth..
And why not? Our leaders are giving them a sale.
Within the next 18 month 3 mega hedge funds will make a run on Silver -EXCEPT - this time unlike the Hunt Brothers WILL TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY.
Gold will go up but not as much....this is about closing the ratio. The vault allocations are almost secured, The game plan is that the funds will take the physical delivery but buy options and other contracts with no delivery.
Comex will run out of physical Silver - citing "Unable to keep up with physical demand and deliveries to be months out." Comex hope this will derail the scheme.
These Mega Funds will repeat this process and not hand in their physical. In fact, they will continue to store. Their goal will be to be the main source of Silver for the electronics, automobile industry, commercial applications and yes military- as well as inflationary hedge. And ofcourse make lots of money on the speculative trading. As one attorney said, "If Soros can make a billion on Yen trading why can't these funds do the same on Silver?"
The US government has already prepared their case against these firms (should they intitiate it) as "Collusion and manipulation of a metals market and a threat to the US currency." They plan on threatening Confiscation/Freezing assets in order to protect the US currency ...
As a result the vaults are not in the US. This plan is well known by both parties and its going to be a showdown...
But only taking physical holding will cave in JP Morgan and HSBC...
One attorney I spoke to said - It could get to the point that the western nations will also require Silver miners that they can control to limit deliveries outside of the COMEX - a soft form of nationalization.
Comex's hope is that they ca nscare the add on speculators that since they wont deliver in a timely fashion that there is a chacne of default....
This is going to be a helluva battle....because the Silver market is small. what I fear the most for - are the Miners as they become objects of national interests...
If I had an ounce of silver for every time a person has said the price of silver is going to take off I'd be as rich as Carlos Fucking Slim.
Aint that the truth.......but watch for this one - I didnt say next week or next month - but there will be an attempt to take physical control of the Silver via legal deliveries..- if the cartel can still keep the price down even with this commercial phyaical shortage - hats off to them,,,,
Does ZH still have that encrypted contact system where you can leak info/facts/rumors ?
ZH what say yee about this ? Any thoughts ?
For the fucking miners, being objects of national interest might be a big step up for them.
Anything or anyone that can effect the US Currency is of National Interest...
Surging gold sales around the world can only mean one thing. The cartel will shit on the price and it will go lower.
... until it can't.
Something about there being no honor among thieves....and real money is worth stealing.
A lot of people think they have to take a shit. But it turns out they have no good delivery shit in them. And they die of a heart attack on the crapper trying to force one out.
History repeats itself. In 1970s, before gold windows closed, France used navy ships to move golds back from US. Today German demands their gold back from USSA, we are watching begining of the end. Of course, another gold window will close. I'm thinking hard which one it is.