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Dow & S&P Surge To New 5-Year Highs, USD Unch

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Volume was nothing to cheer about after a long weekend, but it seemed the forced buy-ins and stop-runs remain as stocks pushed on to new highs even as the USD ended unchanged from Friday's close and Treasury yields up 2-3bps. A 1.2% rally in S&P futures from Friday's lows as Copper and Silver were slammed lower (former on China 'tightening' and latter on equity short-covering margin unwinds we suspect). In general risk-assets were not playing along with stocks' exuberance but as the after noon played on and stocks saw at most a 1 pt reversal, so bonds pushed higher in yields - recoupling risk and stocks towards the close. VIX led the way - testing Friday's decoupled lows around 12.08%. Credit markets remain underperformers but tracked stocks higher on the day. Oil prices - seemingly the only thing that could potentially foil the current rally - pushed around 1% higher from Friday's close, as Gold fell back modestly to $1605. AAPL ended the day unch - with a huge volume spike at the close, as homebuilders suffered post-NAHB. 

VIX closed at its lowest since April 2007.

S&P futures did see some huge deltas today as we broke to new highs - the highest since before the sell-off into the fiscal-cliff debate - but the up-trend remains...

 

S&P 500 futures had their biggest open-to-close rise of the year.

 

Indices just kept chugging higher all day long... with the main surge once again coming on a stop-run above previous highs...to fuel the rally

 

but in general TICK never accelerated until the close when it went a little crazy exuberant...

 

The USD ended the day unchanged from Friday's close (as did JPY) while GBP and CAD weakened notably (and AUD strengthened)... 

 

and Oil outperformed once again... post EU Close...


 

Is oil all there is left to spoil the party? (via Credit Suisse)...

 

As is clear on the right, Capital Context's CONTEXT risk model suggested the non-equity part ofthe world was not buying in to the strength - but as the afternoon wore on so bonds and FX carry joined the party and Oil's strength also pushed up risk. ETFs (left) remained well synced...

 

though risk-assets recoupled short-term, they remain notably decoupled in the medium-term...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture

Bernank, I will have the handcuffs ready for you when this phony POS market blows up in your MOTHERFUCKING face.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Hope and Change.

Yes We Can!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

and my small business hasn't had a sale in over 36 hours

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

YOUR small business?  The NERVE!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment The Thunder Child
The Thunder Child's picture

What are you waiting for muppets? Come on in the waters fine!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You didn't grow that.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

You need to go massively into debt and become a big business if you wish to survive.

 

I feel your pain

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:55 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Nonsense! To infinity and beyond!

(And then into Bernanke's Black Hole.)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

At 13:00:04 a single trade for 25,000 shares of SDS went off at $46.66

Does trading in VXX, SDS, etc have any effect on ES?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture

so far, that trade is a loser

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

That's not the question.

Does the Intra-Day trading in VXX, SDS, etc. have any immediate impact on ES?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

I would think so. ZH article recently showed how the NY Fed prop traders short UVXY and VIX futures to set the right 'mood' for the algos to come in and buy. UVXY got nailed today, too. Obviously the there is contango, etc., but it was way out of proportion with the modest VIX decline today. I think they use these major ETFs (UVXY is traded a ton, as is VXX) as proxies to set off algos and it is like dominoes, ultimately setting the stage for green shoots.

 

TBT was interesting today. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

That's a conspiracy theory.  What does happen HFTs support ranges all the MA's they do very well with all with out assistance, you don't have to be rocket scientist to see the patten.  Longs, institutional, are then dumped onto the supported ranges, 'good news' filters through then you have a rally.  All and all this is still a tight market liquidity wise, you can see this on the DXY and the 10s, 30s haven't collapsed (no great rotation).  It's a greed rally on mega leverage (Wall Street), I would also discount that retail are in this, most likely they are not.

Let this ride out, then wait for a 1987 moment. 

http://youtu.be/YREuwmo4URc

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

if gold, silver and copper are getting crushed even though we have "the lowest interest rates in recorded history" then clearly there is a problem with the economy. while those who are shorting this thing keep getting slammed around like some toddler that just fell into the Gorilla cage at the Zoo we're still completely lacking in any "generalized price rise" to justify profits...and profit MARGINS...going forward. As a bull "resting" (long Treasuries right now...but still in one name in the market which i think will outperform the average over the next three months) while i do feel that i'm missing out...i'm also feeling very much "show me"...not so much to Wall Street which has done spectacularly well given the collapse but Washington...which seems to be "beyond struggling" when it comes to...ahem..."engineering"...ahem "a recovery." as a card carrying member of the "downtrodden" the facts are the facts: this economic recovery SUCKS YOU PHUCKING DEMOCRATS. forget "merely" jobs...where the phuck is the growth with all those trillions being borrowed and spent? in "gun control legislation and making illegal immigration legal"? REALLY? and this is with the backdrop of a war no less? GIVE ME A PHUCKING BREAK. These clowns couldn't create a recovery if they were handed World War II. Now HERE was a guy (a GOOD Democrat) who knew "how to get the job done": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_L._Ickes i mean spare us the friggin SPEECHES for phuck's sake. DO SOMETHING.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:04 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

" those who are shorting this thing keep getting slammed around like some toddler that just fell into the Gorilla cage at the Zoo"

LOL.

I hear ya brother, it's a f*cking con job.  Wall Street is getting high again, real high...and it won't be pretty when the panic hits and it will.  This rally is just a greed fueled mania line of coke, nothing more, nothing less.  The bears will be laughing the asses off once this thing blows taking out Obama's 'recovery' and making the Fed look 100% incompetent.  It will be a glorious day.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Depends on your definition of "immediate" in a market that correlates in nanoseconds, but yes, due to hyperfast arb trading that is the bread/butter of HFT, there are all kinds of "tail wagging dog" effects in SPX related instruments.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

If one were to look at the trading for the DOW today, as illustrated on drudge, one might find a very perculiar nice upward, smooth line of "trading" from 3:30 on.  Weird

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

TD; "TICK never accelerated until the close when it went a little crazy exuberant..."

Also look at the VOLD (Diff between UP Vol & DOWN Vol).  VOLD got a hard-on at the end of the day as well.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

The chart is a Yahoo chart. They suffer "anomalies" like this occasionally where they're missing data, so they just draw a straight line between the two known good data points. Many of Yahoo's charts today have a similar smooth line at the same time. My guess is that Yahoo Finance suffered a glitch.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Huh?!?!?

I have a direct data feed.  I rarely look at charts from Yahoo or any other free internet based service.

$TICK, $TIKQ, $TIKRL, $VOLD, etc all had the EOD surge.

 

It is interesting to note that TLT was level-flat-line until 13:30, when it had a signicant break-down.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

1.2% rally in S&P futures from Friday's lows as Copper and Silver were slammed lower (former on China 'tightening' and latter on equity short-covering margin unwinds we suspect). 

Another fucking lie!  This was JP Morgan at its finest! The crime syndication at its best!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

More evidence you want to stay the f*ck out of this rally.  It's gonna blow, it's a 'greed is good' play on 1000:1

 

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Impressed by ES (planners) today.. especially copper doing its thing.  looks like it wants to test 1550 to me.

I was in the pullback camp but now beggining to think this thing will just drift sideways and up continuation untill someone pulls the rug a month or two from now...

Last time copper did this though ES also ignored untill day 3. At that stage it realised and fell 3% over 5 days.

Howevever,, in this environment Thor himself would have to smack this to turn it bearish in the eyes of the MOMO crowd..

USD is going down in protracted fashion in my opinion, GBP cross' have been dragging things down and i do believe EUR going higher..

metals will go down with dollar untill violent snap which willl not happen untill equities stall...

Who knows?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Violent correction coming, but who knows when.

Everybody (except many here, of course) thinks it can't go down.  You know what that means.

Risk/reward.  Mania ignores the numerator, except for an acute perceived opportunity cost of staying out.  Feeling lucky, punk?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:07 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

people here think the market only goes up? hehehehe. that's the best chuckle i've had in a while. THE WORLD WAITS FOR AN EXPLANATION AS THE MARKET RALLIES WHILE GOLD, SILVER AND COPPER GET ANNIHILATED! (sound of crickets chirping.) there are only
TWO options going forward: "one is a disinflation" (the nice version) "the other an outright DEFLATION." somebody's lever TO THE HILT in gold (who's the hedge fund guy in Connecticut everyone is in love with here?) and when that thing coughs up the hair ball "you'll see who else is levered to the hilt long everything but Uncle Gorilla (which these same people have been shorting massively going on ten years now.)" hedge funds, pension funds, endowments--it's all the same game. "make me Abbie-normal money." And what does the Fed do then i ask? I SAY NOTHING.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

man... that VIX looks awful tempting-- i think i'll throw some darts and 'put-up' 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

S&P 1600. Nearly a certainty at this point. Only question is "When?".

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

And what happens in the meantime.  Hard to say what will come of the whole sequester thing.  Would be pretty fucking funny if "the market" ignored it completely.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

The market will ignore everything because it is totally manipulated.  I have never seen anything like it.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:06 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Think America's #1 enemy cold war. This is that and anyone abetting these crminals will 'pay' so to speak...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:18 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, the newly unemployed will find it fucking hilarious.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 keeps inching along - similar to this time last year.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-hovers-channel-resistance/

 

Difference this time around - adjusted revenues/earnings, record low labor participation rate, highest debt and deficit in the history of the planet, 47M Americans on food stamps and higher taxes.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So should we fear irrational exuberance?  Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Risk isn't following the ponzi game. Those Spanish, Italian vs German spreads are creeping up!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

Full retard mkts shrug off all the negative GDPs here and in Europe, lousy sales of things like cars, etc.. But it was 'warranted' I guess for the melt-up as the Germans are 'confident.' 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

'Markets' are the summation of its participants. Therefore, it is the 'RETARDS'buying this 'market' that make it do what it does....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Especially when one of the participants has the capacity to be almost infinitely retarded.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment rayban
rayban's picture

Italy could be the spoiler. The election might end up with no clear winner and Europe would be in a mess again. Hence the party could be over in less than a week.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:55 | Link to Comment busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Somebody said the trannies hit a new all time high today.  If so, as a leading indicator, the future must be very rosy. 

But I used to think high gas prices were bad news for transportation; did that change?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

If you are asking if the trannies are blowing (off) on top, then the answer is yes.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Thanks, I missed that post. 

I feel better now -- it's not fundamentals, and I guess I should have known that -- it's just more of the visible hand (Ben's) in action.

Shades of 2007: even as the fundamentals were obviously crumbling, the market moved steadily higher... until it didn't.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Yea, but 2007 did not have Cocksucker Ben printing 85 large every fucking MONTH.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

VIX closed at its lowest since April 2007.

dear god that's scary.  the elevator down this time is going to be brutal.  who knows when it actually happens, but when everyone is so complacent that Ben's got their back, and all shorts disappeared from the market after burning their faces one too many times, no one is even going to realize its a correction til its too late.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If greed is so strong that they don't get out, I have no sympathy. They are the contributors to this accelerating disaster.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

By the time Ben Lets this market move on its own shorting will be illegal.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This is what happens when the banks have access to an unlimited cash surplus.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:04 | Link to Comment toros
Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:59 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

And that'll do for me.

 

Think I'll take a look at vixy or vixm.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

There is a house in New Yorken, they call the rising sun of Dow J...its been the ruin of many a man...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"I shoulda quit you...a long time ago...."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaVrtf3C2Kc

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

A heads up: if you post anything they feel is negative, yahoo, business insider, ny post, or wsj. They will block you from posting. "We only want "rah, rah , rah, sis boom bah!" The two worst lying criminals are Joe Weisen-kike, and Jeff Mackey, the "I melt down after too much coke/Im a bitch.com"

Men of samll character and penis.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

I'm schooling the libtards on Yahoo,i'll change my name to nightshiftsucks

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Nobusiness, a no-short edict is a tool in their box; starting with the banks.

Ma & Pa are already mostly in long-only 401(k) funds.  They will absorb the risk while the banks hedge and short around their positions.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:49 | Link to Comment EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

One wonders if the nonstop energy (by Feds, bankers and algos) required to keep the wall intact is distracting these apparently (and unfortunately) powerful players from seeing the hairline cracks ...

["A strange boatman – I know all those who usually pass here, but this one is stranger – has just told me that a great wall is going to be built to protect the emperor. For it seems that infidel tribes, and demons among them, often gather in front of the imperial palace to shoot their black arrows at the emperor."]

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

Like my german girle friend said leaving me at 30 to the 55years guy:"I love you baby,but I can not help you in this point",I found what was a point as this guy was real estate rich mogul with art dealing stuff,ohhh SP,SP-you smells same thing

follow us:

http://trendybull777.blog.com/2013/02/20/special-rubrics-from-around-worldvery-catchy/

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The best thing that can happen with this phony market is for it to keep going up, with no apparent reason.  We should take comfort in the lunacy.  More, faster, higher, please. 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 01:27 | Link to Comment luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

even as they look to "buy the dip"...i'll still be "shorting" this puppy!

 

i'm patient and i know all too well

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Tilt on, Quixote!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!