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Freight Shipment Volumes Plunge To Lowest In Two Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Freight shipment volumes are rather obviously seasonal, but as Bloomberg Brief notes, the Cass Freight index shows shipment volumes have slumped for four consecutive months and are back to their worst levels in two years. This is the first year-over-year contraction since the 2007-2009 Great Recession - and places the reality of the dismal Q4 GDP print in context. If that wasn't enough good news about the real economy, the cyclicality of the shipments are losing momentum (i.e. each seasonal rebound in the last three years has been weaker - just as we saw in the lead up to 2008) and freight expenditures fell in January leading to a 1.6% drop over the last year - compared to a 27.2% rise in January 2011, and 22.2% rise in January 2012. As Cass noted, these volumes will not be enough to "have a significant impact on the unemployment numbers."

Cass Shipments (upper pane) are back at two-year lows but critically the momentum of each seasonal cycle (lower pane) has been weaker and weaker in recent years...

 

and Freight expenditure is now negative YoY for first time in three years...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:07 | 3255790 Sudden Debt
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THOSE FLYING SAUCERES ARE TAKING OUT SHIPPING JOBS!!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:14 | 3255826 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

Must be union

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:19 | 3255841 Manthong
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None of these fundamentals matter at all to the movement of “capital” and paper pricing of assets in the new normal where all things are paper priced and fractionalized according to the “policy” of politics and bank agendas..

until they all matter a lot and all at once.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:22 | 3255855 bolen
bolen's picture

 

QE5 coming.

Bullish 

news!

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:37 | 3255912 TruthInSunshine
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Very bullish, in fact.

People are obviously spending massive amounts of fiat to build what they want & need via the expensive, advanced 3D Printing method within the confines of their homes and small businesses.

This is good for the economy, good for the environment, and the dawning of a new manufacturing Renaissance.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:43 | 3255941 insanelysane
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Printed out a 3D roast beef the other day.  It was tasty but I had to use a lot of gravy cause it was a bit dry.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:09 | 3255960 TruthInSunshine
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Roast beef? You've been "horsin' around" again.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:47 | 3255957 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THE SHIT JUST GOT REAL!!!

I bet you'll even be able to make gold coins with them if they find something to meld gold wire...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:06 | 3256673 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Remember, Greedspan said the market is the economy!

/sarc

I'm afraid if the S&P closes above 1525 today, there will be much more pain for shorts.  By my reckoning, the current upper channel line seems to be right around 1525, and it seems someone wants the S&P to break out instead of head for the bottom of the channel.

Of course, max pain theory says a false breakout and then lower.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:38 | 3256593 johngoes
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Swap enough derivatives and the freight volume just becomes noise in the GDP.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:17 | 3255836 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

THEY TOOK OUR JOERBS!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:36 | 3255914 Sudden Debt
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THU TUUK U JUUUBBBSSS!!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:09 | 3255805 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's called VACUUM PAKCAGING!!!

It's sucks out the air and you can put in twice as much.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:10 | 3256262 tarsubil
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I'm thinking the quality of products has gone up so there are fewer returns to Amazon. This is actually bullish.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:31 | 3256341 graneros
graneros's picture

You sir could have a brilliant career at the BLS.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:14 | 3255806 Cult_of_Reason
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Similar to 2007 Head and Shoulders chart pattern.

http://i50.tinypic.com/fywrq.jpg

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:10 | 3255810 Shizzmoney
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If there is any datapoint that shows China's exports (and therefore, economy) is slipping....this is it.

WMT will sweat a bit more this morning.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:22 | 3255856 lunaticfringe
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When Chinamart, I mean Walmart said that their revenues for Feb were horrible and falling off the cliff, I knew this was good for at least a 50 point DJIA rise. This news probably good for a like amount.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:58 | 3256000 lunaticfringe
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DJIA now up 53. Call me Nostra fucking damus. Just add POMO.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:31 | 3256094 TruthInSunshine
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Not just Walmart, but now even Whole Foods...

Man, these FOOLS don't know...the shit is gettin' REAL...

*I've been on edge ever since they took kombucha off the shelf.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:47 | 3256153 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

You are Nostra fucking damus

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:48 | 3256150 DonutBoy
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Yes - DSXO (Discretionary Spending eXcluding Obama) is falling fast.  I don't understand, is it because my taxes just went up, my health insurance premium just went up, or my gasoline is costing me $4.70 a gallon?  Thank God there's no inflation or I'd be in the hurt locker.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:13 | 3255820 orangegeek
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Baltic Dry Index is back at historic lows. 

 

Guess that means recession is over.  Prosperity for everyone.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:33 | 3255899 Sudden Debt
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Well, it's because oil is as cheap as piss and that's whats pressing the costs? No?....

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:13 | 3255823 LawsofPhysics
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When goods and services stop crossing borders, troops will.  Same as it ever was...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:20 | 3255848 Cognitive Dissonance
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Mrs. Cog and I are readying for war. We will know it is right around the corner when the nationalistic cheering is the loudest.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:30 | 3255889 LawsofPhysics
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Indeed.  Compared to 1907, China=Germany and U.S.=France.   As a former AMEDD officer, it hurts to have to say this about the new military model, but here we are.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:15 | 3255833 TooBearish
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Frieght volume clearly shifting to EFTs so net effect is bullish....sarc off now....

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:17 | 3255835 lunaticfringe
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This is exceedingly bullish news! Futures are up! Go long everything!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:17 | 3255839 Cognitive Dissonance
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The various black holes are slowly being drawn into the singularity.

<What's that sucking sound I hear?>

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:24 | 3255866 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Possibly the last thing you will probably hear.

Long :Global thermonuclear War.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:19 | 3255844 youngman
youngman's picture

Noone ships anything anymore..we just send Bit money...electronic fiat...we don´t make things anymore...we have invented synthetic Derivitives...much better and eco friendly....

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:19 | 3255845 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Yes, but did you see Kate Middleton's baby bump?

And that "Blade Runner" guy. What a terrible thing.

Oh, and the Lakers. What of the Lakers?

Priorities, bitchez.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:56 | 3255995 GeezerGeek
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I always get a kick out of the term 'baby bump'. Why isn't it a 'fetus bump'? I asked a pro-abortion activist that question one time and she showed me her IQ by raising a single finger. I thanked her for informing me of her IQ and she turned purple. If only there had been a 'purple people' eater around... 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:59 | 3256900 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Didn't you know that, like quantum particles, unborn humans are effected by the mere act of observation, as well as the state of the observer.

If the observer wants the unborn human, it is a cute, cuddly miraculous "baby".

If the observer does not want the unborn human, it is a yucky, slimy, parasitic "fetus".

Duh!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:09 | 3256041 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I certainly hope the freight decline doesn't effect the Kardashians

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:21 | 3255852 yogibear
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Currency wars then real wars. Like the history of the last century.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:23 | 3255861 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

meh, show me the data after June, otherwise this is the typical cyclical movement.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:41 | 3255933 Mike in GA
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yeah, typical for depressions

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:24 | 3255863 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope and Change.  This should be good enough for a 200 point rally in the Dow.  Still railroad robber baron Warner Beuffer still loves Obummer.   Crony facism.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:21 | 3256066 DoChenRollingBearing
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Elections DO have consequences.  You have to play the cards you are dealt.  If economic repression is what we get, play their game (or not: by buying gold).  

But be ready to bail...  The guys at the top are not our friends.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 09:26 | 3258953 SilverDOG
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US elections are a simple continuum.

Consequences preordained.

And no, one does not "have to play cards you are dealt."

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:29 | 3255882 Kaiser Sousa
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and................................................

"WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY...."

Sincerely,

Timmy 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:34 | 3255901 falak pema
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this is mind boggling, as the Squid says the world is on the verge of an epic surge; all markets on green.

how come the shipment stats dont say this? 

Has the squid lost his global compass and commercial bible?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:36 | 3255917 Hulk
Hulk's picture

That info is for their clients. They trade the other side, remember ???

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:41 | 3255932 Cognitive Dissonance
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When you run out of 'natural' greater fools just whip up the next batch.

<OK so that's two parts greed, one part hubris, an eye of Newt Gringrich........>

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:46 | 3255954 insanelysane
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They will be graduating from high schools and colleges in May.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:05 | 3256025 falak pema
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imagine Harvard runs a course on leadership skills; I know where all those bright eyed MBAs end up : as GS shills selling the pot of gold at end of rainbow; all the while they take your fees and their contrarian put plays to the bank! 

Having said that, to get to the top of that infamous heap, you must have a nose that can stand any type of stench, for ten + years doing all the dirty leg work; Abacus and Abacus squared, seeing your clients burn their dreams. 

Bllankfein's smile says it all if you can get past that landmark pyramid of shitpile, branded as potential 33 degree squid meister of banksta world.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:35 | 3255911 ramacers
ramacers's picture

the "feel" out there in stores, on the roads,  etc. is palpable and it ain't a good one.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:48 | 3255962 Cognitive Dissonance
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Purely my personal observation, but a trip through various parts of normally busy Northern Virginia mid day Sunday was surprising for its reduced vehicle traffic and only half full mall and shopping center parking lots. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:39 | 3255928 Cursive
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Dismal forward outlook from UPS and FedEx support this data.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:43 | 3255940 digalert
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Damn, I'm amazed how the markets continue to hover just inside the green, It's like magic...day after day...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:54 | 3255986 lunaticfringe
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week after week, month after month, year after year.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:16 | 3256054 lead salad
lead salad's picture

It is magic....magic fairy dust appearing out of nowhere and the Bernanke spreading it around.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:45 | 3255945 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The boxcar doors are open boys. Time to get back East.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:45 | 3255949 natronic
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Don't worry frieght shipments will go up when the keystone pipleline is nixed again so buffets trains can get the contract to ship the oil.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:54 | 3255987 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

Stepping back a bit, looks like frieght is just about at the 1994 level!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:00 | 3256006 GeezerGeek
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1994 was a pretty good time to get into the stock market. And now?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 10:55 | 3255989 MFLTucson
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This is why the stock market is up today.  Couldnt understand what was going on but, now this makes perfect sense!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:02 | 3256013 pauhana
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I smell slowly boiling frogs . . . .

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 23:07 | 3258316 Papasmurf
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There's nothing like the smell of freshly baked muppets in the morning.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:05 | 3256022 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm in this business and can tell you we are down over 40% from last year Jan/Feb. The slowdown started to show up in Oct and Nov and Dec were down y/y by about 20%. We keep hoping next month will see a pickup. I'm using my meager profits to buy shiny metal things

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:05 | 3256023 agNau
agNau's picture

If it fits, it ships!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:28 | 3256081 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Check out Baltic Dry Index too...738...yikes..

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:32 | 3256102 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

This will get real interesting when we dip down to the 2002 level and then 2008 level.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:35 | 3256111 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

The BDI is still one sick puppy! And getting sicker.

Has never made it back, near to its 200 DMA let alone touching it, since the crash.

Rail car loadings have fallen off a cliff!

 And can someone tell me what has happened to the Ceridean/UCLA Index? Last published May 2012.

I guess something or someone, doesn't want the public to know just how sick the transport sector is.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:18 | 3256270 ATG
ATG's picture

TRAN so sick in fact it is at all time highs, targeting another +37%:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24tran

/sarc off...

BDI in a world of hurt, target -61%:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24bdi

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:36 | 3256116 Catullus
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I'd like to see the ex-coal shipments. The coal market is being decimated from low natural gas prices.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:44 | 3256141 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Getting the garden in now.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:20 | 3256734 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Adding 40% to mine this year...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:09 | 3256256 ATG
ATG's picture

Intermodal rail containers and trailers up +5.7% YTD:

http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/rail_and_intermodal_volumes_are_mix...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:47 | 3256424 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Intermodal (piggyback) proves shippers are using rail more, rather then road transport which is more expensive. This is where the Ceridian/UCLA Index came in handy, measuring diesel usage by the trucking sector. The Index stopped publishing data as of May last year! Sure would like to see where the index sits today!

Rail coal shipments (tonnage) have fallen off a cliff.  

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