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Guest Post: The Final Countdown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Governments have refused to accept the necessity of a period of economic re-adjustment following the credit-bubble. The bubble burst about five years ago and economic progress has been effectively suspended ever since. The consequences of this refusal to accept reality are at a minimum to make this adjustment unnecessarily drawn out and needlessly painful, without offering a better eventual outcome.

Reduced to its bare bones, the choice has been either to accept that unviable businesses and over-extended banks must go bust, or to ignore the problem and hope it goes away. We are familiar with this dilemma as investors: a business that refuses to adapt to new realities will eventually fail. Before it does, its investors have the chance either to sell their shares and perhaps reinvest their money more profitably, or to refuse to accept an early loss on their investment. Most of us, being human, take the latter course and usually regret it.

The lesson, if we care to learn it, is that the product of time and money is more valuable than the desire to avoid a book loss. In economic terms, it is better for resources to be deployed efficiently than to tie them up in inefficient or unwanted activity. This is a decision for markets, not governments, which brings us back to the necessity for economic re-adjustment. Governments have simply not faced up to the reality that we are in a post-credit-bubble mess: they still hope the problem will be resolved by time.

At this point we must dismiss objections that you cannot compare national accounts with those of a business. Such platitudes display wishful thinking more than a grasp of reality. However, wishful thinkers have a minor point in that governments have the wherewithal to put off the inevitable for longer than failing businesses; but the result is the zombie-like economy we face today.

Governments are refusing to let markets clear: prices have not been permitted to fall to a clearing level. They put it off because the American economist Irving Fisher came up with a plausible theory about financial deflation in the 1930s, and they don’t want to face the bankruptcies of the over-indebted, the businesses that rely on the state for their survival, and the banks that have foolishly lent them too much money.

Reality is now catching up with western governments. Their underlying financial position is rapidly deteriorating, with welfare costs spiralling out of control and governments already heavily in debt. They cannot realistically underwrite the global banking system, which is insolvent and considerably larger than the governments themselves. The economic recovery which is the governments’ get-out-of-jail card will not occur without that economic readjustment.

We are long past the point of no return: that was probably when the Federal Reserve Board under Greenspan decided to rescue the stock market by cutting interest rates to 1% in 2003/04. It has been crisis management by the state ever since. We have progressed to the point where governments have chosen to protect themselves, in preference to looking after the true interests of their electorates.

Governments are now reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality.

 

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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:56 | 3256884 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

My money is on the monkey on the right

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:08 | 3256924 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

While ZHers consider a "tail risk" to be something akin to a Lehman type invent with the stock market crashing to the ground, but with equities making all time highs week after week many professional investors believe that the real tail risk is being under-invested and missing a huge rally. When you consider the oportunity cost of not owning stocks, cash doesn't look that attractive any more. Who wants to be sitting in cash while stocks are rocketing toward all time highs? If you're really afraid of drawdown in Equity prices, then top investment professionals would recommend US treasuries as a safe-haven alternative. With treasuries, you get a steady semi-annually compounded cash flow, but with the added advantage of zero risk. If you want to get clever, then you can also use 'modern portfolio theory' like the proffesionals, to hedge away all risk in your portfolio using historical correlations.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:09 | 3256927 redpill
redpill's picture

'Governments are now reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality.'

 

Last refuge?  Please, screwing the electorate is the DEFINITION of government.


Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:33 | 3256988 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Well, it is not necessarily the definition of "government," but it is the only real example we seem to have right now.  The screwing is just getting more obvious as bits of the facade continue to break away.  Once the avalanche commences, it will begin to get weird (sound familiar, Red Pill? :) fast.  Hmmm, "avalanche" and "facade" are French words.  Perhaps that's where I believe it's going to begin in earnest, IMO, because the French citizenry will be much more willing to pay their bankers'-and-their-cronies' a visit for impromtu "house-warming parties."  But there I go using French words again.

 

And they are way too obvious in their eagerness in these African campaigns...

 

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:53 | 3257105 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

The 'govt's' don't care. 

This can will be kicked near and far until it's someone elses problem.

After that, why would they give a fuck with the money they made off our backs?

What does inflation mean to 'them' when they have fuck you money?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:54 | 3257110 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Been hittin' those HerbalLife pills hard there MDB?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:01 | 3257564 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Sarcasm with a tinge of wit, that's more like it MDB.
I liked the hat tip to portfolio theory.

Hysterical..

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:09 | 3257586 CH1
CH1's picture

screwing the electorate is the DEFINITION of government... Well, it is not necessarily the definition of "government"

Of course it is. Taxation is nothing but taking money from people via force or intimidation.

All arguments to the contrary are rank deception.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:44 | 3258075 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It's falling apart and the only thing they have left is bilking there own people who they think won't fight back or are dumbed down.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:51 | 3257690 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

When it comes to survival, I have to think about the words sung by Jefferson Airplane, in a slightly different context. "I'd rather have my country die for me."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:52 | 3257692 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Government is the enemy of every decent honest hard working person and the friend of every  mooch, pimp, four flusher ,  chiseler and grafter.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:11 | 3256932 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Gold, pure gold.  Tell me MDB, what is the "price" of something you need for survival, but that I refuse to sell?  One of your better satirical posts.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:49 | 3257088 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I can never decide to give MDB an uptick to show that I get it, or a down tick to go with the irony of his posts.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:04 | 3257574 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

That's easy:  We haggle and barter for real assets/equities we both need to survive.  E.g. swap you two 0.223's for three 9 mm's.  Q.E.D.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:16 | 3257606 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not if one of us is dropped at 300 yards with an IR scope.  Please, you don't think that these elite families have there security details already worked out.  Several plantations in places like barbados where this is already the case.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:14 | 3256940 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I realized what an idiot you were when you used ($) as an emoticon!  ( Two Dollar Douche)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256953 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

"proffesionals"
love that one, straight out of the Ivy League?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256954 Doode
Doode's picture

I actually agree with that statement. End of the worlders are digging their own graves - and say they are right and I invest while the end does happen. No gold investment would save them either. As they say Treasuries are riskless not because there is 0% of a default, but because if they do you won't have to worry about any kind of finance, but rather your own physical survival. And these crisis events happen all the time - nothing but long term tremendous opportunities.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:30 | 3257004 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

so supply lines never break huh?  I think that there is some history that you have missed.  Good luck.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:19 | 3256961 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

I've felt for some time that there was no reason to sit on the sideline and complain about the the market. Yes, it's a joke. Yes, the Fed is a joke, etc. but the market continues to move higher. As much as I've come up with every reason and argument to the contrary, I held my nose and bought stocks. And while I hate all of this nonsense, at least I'm making money while it continues its lunacy.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:50 | 3257092 adr
adr's picture

If you have enough cash to invest in the market to actually matter, you really don't have anything to complain about because you are in the top 15% buying luxury cars and speculating on real estate. You have money and most likely don't have a productive job.

As idiotic as the Tesla Model S. If you can afford to buy the car, you can afford to be driving a V12 that gets 10mpg.

If you have $20k in savings and you invest in any number of momo nonsense stocks, then yes you may double your $20k to $40k in a year if you are lucky. If you go the ES or QQQ route, you may see a 12% return again. That $2400 might buy you a nice vacation. You would need to make extremely risky gambles to turn $20k into enough money to matter. In fact your chances are probably better in Vegas on a roulette wheel.

The point is, the money you make in the stock market won't mean shit if you lose your job or are forced to make $9 an hour at Home Depot.

Productive labor matters, not the stock market. The higher the stock market goes, the greater the loss of productive labor.

So forgive me if I wish the stock market and everything attached to it goes up in smoke. Every day gets harder and harder to actually make money in private industry. My company can't print stock to pay me my salary.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:08 | 3257176 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

He suffers from same affliction of most Amerikans - the inability to distinguish between real and nominal returns.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:43 | 3257321 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Related to this, it's worth noting that human civilization worked fine prior to the invention of stock markets.  People ate, drank, worked, fought, fucked, and died, 100% independent of a fucking stock market.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:52 | 3257364 new game
new game's picture

and held gold as a store of wealth-imagine that, the relic lives on...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:30 | 3257775 Law97
Law97's picture

True.  But stock markets bring super-efficient allocation of capital to profitable enterprises as long as those markets are allowed to operate freely.  ...oh, wait...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:27 | 3256987 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture

"top investment professionals"? would that be the same group of geniuses that failed to see the credit bubble and drove people's portfolios off the cliff for fear of being under invested? are you more of a Tropical Punch or a Lemon-Lime guy?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:27 | 3256989 natronic
natronic's picture

What if the "professionals" are wrong?  How many of your "professionals" predicted 08?  How many of them now are saying housing is back?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:36 | 3257032 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

MDB you really don't get ZHer's point ! We're talking mid / long term here, not about daily trading. Face the truth, bonds are junks, derivatives are not even to be mentionned, shares are overvalued compared to commodities and, yes, i agree with you, cash is worth nothing !

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:42 | 3257064 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Tail risk" is when a man finds himself alone in the men's room with Barney Frank.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:47 | 3257077 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Missing a huge rally MBD??? Lets see...2007 S&P= 1,500/gold at $650
2013 S&P at 1,500/gold at $1,650

Hmmmm...what rally am I missing again?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:00 | 3257397 viahj
viahj's picture

a sarcasm meter?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:04 | 3257148 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

This is perfect, I can always count on your expert advice. I just then let my dyslexia kick in and do the opposite. All is good! Keep the advice coming bud :)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:08 | 3257174 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The market crashes this year.  There are many choices left to be made but some events are already set in stone. What will be the response after the crash?How will we work toward an improved economic syste? Those things are not set in stone. The world won't end with the crash unless it involves the use of nukes. Think about what comes after.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:09 | 3257181 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Hey MDB, which commenters on ZH do you think represents this kind of thing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-28/cointelpro-techniques-di...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:09 | 3257184 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

Come Match 1st... He might be yelling SELL! Keep playing - 8 Days and counting.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:16 | 3257437 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

how about physical gold as a major holding with a few hedge bets thrown in...just in case, by some miracle, this economy can shit out one more glorious 'business cycle'.

MDB...and I know you are a bot of some kind, so I'm just pretending to address you as I would a person...the real tail risk is missing a currency collapse....but first you would have to believe that that was possible. Start with this phrase "America can never pay it's debts in money of current value" ...say that until you believe it and then go back and rethink your entire existence. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:57 | 3256890 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

In this day and age, many don't need anything other than alternative currencies! Get some silver, gold, platinum palladium, get some bitcoin, and then call it a lifetime of drugs, rock and hennesey!

http://goldsilverbitcoin.com

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256952 CH1
CH1's picture

Gold, silver and Bitcoin... you're singing my song. :)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:12 | 3257591 CH1
CH1's picture

LOL... did I get dinged for Bitcoin? Or by the paid antisemite trolls?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:49 | 3257687 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

"paid antisemite troll"? hahaha

who's paying and where can I join?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:58 | 3256895 busternc333
busternc333's picture

No shit.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:00 | 3256903 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Long " Animal Planet".  I wake up to Animals every morning!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:01 | 3256909 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I just wanted to note that referring to this charade as a "currency war" or "competitive devaluation" I think misses the big picture a little bit, particularly when you consider that, just like conventional war, there is always an entity (or small group of entities) that wins regardless of who the victorious party in the "war" is.  In this case, just like conventional war, it is the finance/industrial complex who will come out of this having won big time.  Keep in mind, the idea of the "military/industrial complex" misses that military/industry are one in the same, and the other party, the financiers, are somehow always able to avoid being mentioned, despite being the primary drivers for war activity of any type.  Keep always in mind that the guys in virtually every position to decide the fate of their respective currencies are all playing for the same team.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:02 | 3256910 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

"they still hope the problem will be resolved by time."

 

And you still hope there is such a thing as a market. And you are wrong.  This simplistic idea that there is a nemesis out there waiting to take revenge for bad policy, is simply a sophomoric way of viewing the facts.  Or it is in bad faith--because you don't understand, or don't want to grant (the latter is much more likely), that there are human rights issues at the bottom of this social deterioration.

 

In any event, you are living in a fool's paradise if you think the market is going to "strike back" at the "evil empire."  You're just being silly and immature.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:53 | 3257104 harami
harami's picture

Everyone keeps thinking we're about to enter epsidoe six "Return of the Jedi" but actually we're in about our 454th rerun of the Empire Strikes Back.  It'll be on loop for the rest of your natural life, please enjoy!

On a side note, people like episode 5 the most, so maybe it's not so bad?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:24 | 3257248 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Funny, but the pendulum does eventually swing back.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:06 | 3256915 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'm voting everyone out on the next election except Sherman, Warren and Kucinich and a few others.

Feinstein. That bitch is outta there. Same with the rest of the banksters.

Heard the pharmacist complaining to a customer this week. He said one antibiotic went from $85 last week to $1,012 this week. He told the customer he can't carry it at the new price.

You're in good hands with ObamaCare. Traiter M'Fer.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:07 | 3256923 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 If you evict Feinstank> I'll venture fund your needs for 5 years!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:19 | 3256958 CH1
CH1's picture

I'm voting everyone out on the next election..

That has been tried a hundred times and never works. Worse, it keeps you right in the middle of their game, playing vigorously.

Drop out of the slave system and start living your own life.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:19 | 3256959 Jason T
Jason T's picture

guy in my lions club, older retired guy, he's got a property he rents to a woman who works at home depot... she got her hours cut to just 29 per week.

HD pays crap to begin with.  disaster.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:03 | 3257406 DosZap
DosZap's picture

she got her hours cut to just 29 per week.

Because ObaMaoScare has defined FULL time workers @30hrs per wk, and the Employers must provide Extended additional bennies to their health plan.

Nothing new to see here, always has been part of the plan, the more folks that MUST come for Bennie Bux,the more Dem whores are onboard the SOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUL Train!!.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:35 | 3257656 JR
JR's picture

Feinstein is entrenched; in the U.S. Senate since 1992, bought and paid for, a darling of the liberal corporate media.

According to her Campaign Finance Reports, on April 13, 2012 her cash on hand was $7,279.096.15. Her total expenditures for her 2012 re-election as of her July, 14, 2012 quarterly report came to ($5,952.326.71). So much for grassroots elections.

She’s a Democrat in a state where Republican registration has fallen below 30%. She received 7,864,624 votes in 2012, or 62.5% of the vote. Of California’s 38,000,000 population, growing rapidly via Federally-mandated open borders and free welfare for illegal aliens, the white population in 2011 dropped to 39.7% and is still dropping.

Here are Feinstein’s constituencies from On the Issues:

Rated 100% by NARAL, indicating a pro-choice voting record. (Dec 2003)

Rated 0% by the NRLC, indicating a pro-choice stance. (Dec 2006)

Rated 88% by the HRC, indicating a pro-gay-rights stance. (Dec 2006)

Rated 89% by the NAACP, indicating a pro-affirmative-action stance. (Dec 2006)

Rated 86% by UFCW, indicating an anti-management/pro-labor record. (May 2012)

Rated 91% by the NEA, indicating pro-public education votes. (Dec 2003)

Rated 0% by the Christian Coalition: an anti-Family-Value voting record. (Dec 2003)

Rated 88% by APHA, indicating a pro-public health record. (Dec 2003)

Rated 8% by USBC, indicating an open-border stance. (Dec 2006)

Rated 92% by the AFL-CIO, indicating a pro-union voting record. (Dec 2003)

Rated 100% by the AU, indicating support of church-state separation. (Dec 2006)

Rated 15% by NTU, indicating a "Big Spender" on tax votes. (Dec 2003)

Rated 80% by the CTJ, indicating support of progressive taxation. (Dec 2006)

Vigorous support for State of Israel against Hamas in Gaza. (Nov 2012)

Move the US Embassy to Jerusalem. (Nov 1995)

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Dianne_Feinstein.htm

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Dianne_Feinstein

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:17 | 3256920 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'They' - our controllers - TPTB - global elite - 'whatever' - dont give a fuck about you or I and our well being. Zero.

.

How many more speeches, presidents, world leaders, bad ideas, bad execution, bad design, mistakes, poor planning, etc...can be made by the best of the best - educated, talents, best schooling/universities, best resources, best minds of this world, etc...

...CAN KEEP GETTING IT WRONG for 5,000 years?

.

Someone please explain why humans on this planet are the fuckin unluckiest people in the universe!? - unless it was on purpose?

.

Its astronomical odds for us to be this unlucky, unless the system was rigged. PERIOD.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:53 | 3257103 e-recep
e-recep's picture

for the umpteenth time : they did not get anything wrong. they are not stupid, on the contrary they are very intelligent. what they told you was a lie. they did all this for personal benefits. greed and intelligence become a deadly duo when they also have all the authority. they are greedy shrewd bastards but they are not stupid. never ever underestimate your enemy.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:57 | 3257383 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'how can you underestimate a shadow,... when the light of day can never get past the perpetrator's back?'

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:16 | 3257438 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Agreed e-

.

Thats what im saying...in my analogy...its pure design by intelligent pyschopathic occultists.

.

The people on earth arent that naturely 'unlucky'...the bad luck was created...by 'them.'

.

As i often say - 'Evil is dysfunctional' - that will be its down fall...just when?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:00 | 3257396 new game
new game's picture

yup blotto, without insider info you will be tourched.

i drive by a casino and the parking lot is full and they aint having lunch.

two suckers, 1 scammer and .001 bankster was just born...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:59 | 3257700 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

You only think we're unlucky. Anyplace else, we wouldn't have stood a chance.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:06 | 3256921 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

These Criminal Banksters own the “government”. The “government” does not tell them what to do, they tell the “government” what to do. They are the reason there is war everywhere, why the “government” ruling over us attacks nations all over the planet committing murder and terrorism against them and treason against us every day. I can’t imagine what sort of force will have to come to the fore to stop these Criminals, but they must be stopped.
 
The “government” is a criminal organization. They rule with fire power. They are a gang that numbers in many thousands. Their goons are everywhere. America in under an occupation of criminals and will continue to be until they are at last forcibly removed from our land. Their economic Ponzi scheme is about to collapse and the main mechanism of their control will be gone. Their central bank, the Fed Reserve, (see fifth Plank Communist Manifesto) has run its course. A 100 year conspiracy is coming to fruition and the deed is done. Just one big problem for them, 200,000,000 guns in the hands of free Americans who hate their guts, and are hell bent of restoring this Republic to Constitutional legitimacy. Whatever cruelty, whatever ruthlessness the criminal “government” uses we must exercise even more so. Don’t forget, they want us dead. No quarter for traitors! No quarter for the enemy!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:07 | 3256922 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Governments are now reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality.

Which, even Constitutionally, is cause for revolution!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:11 | 3257595 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yeah, there's a word for what they're doing: "Front-running".  You may also view it as a (Fiscal) Preemptive Attack on ammo.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:11 | 3256931 Doode
Doode's picture

People been shouting the end is near for some time now - yet nothing happens. The reason is a remarkable resilience of the current system as there are both visible and invisible to the common man ways that the governments can continue doing what they are doing right now for decades to come. Japan is but one example of that. The fact that something might happen could be true, but it could also happen 10-15 years from now if ever - should we sit and wait for it? You guys sound just like end of the worlders - it is def. happening this time around! And then it never does.... The Bible wrote something about that - false prophets and such. Perhaps more facts with specific deadlines would at least weed out me too prognosticators that are polluting the airwaves. BTW, the sun is going to blow – “soonish” like in 5 Billion years so you better be prepared you know...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256951 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

I agree with your thesis for the most part (not a big bible guy though). Regardless, you are correct, worldwide governments have figured out that they can create "money" and keep the economy moving along for years if not decades. At some point it explodes but we may be in the 2nd inning with a long way to go. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:25 | 3256971 razorthin
razorthin's picture

No.  If you were American, you would know that "live free or die" would eventually exert itself.  There is too much pain and unrest clearly visible and accelerating to believe it would take decades.  And every point ramp in the Dow industrials without a commensurate increase in income will fuel that fire.  Bernanke and his global colleagues won't get out of this alive.  It's not a threat, it is simply a prediction.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:26 | 3256985 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Well, we're approaching half a decade now and it appears to avg Joe with a 401k that life is good. His monthly statements are up, his home value is moving higher. He feels better. It's going to take quite a while before that unwinds. Like I said, this is like the 2nd inning. Long way to go...unless we get a rain out.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:34 | 3257025 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I think are overestimating the number of intact 401Ks left out there, for one.  Secondly, they will be confiscating them too.  They've already indicated that.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:53 | 3257101 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

I closed out all of my IRAs and retirement accounts in 2012.  I'll pay the penalties and get on down the road and put my money in PMs where it will retain purchasing power.  Those IRAs and 401Ks are the last big wad of cash laying around (that hasn't been printed out of thin air).  Big brother will eventually get around to going after them.  Remember, "Never let a good crisis go to waste."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:16 | 3257221 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Did the same thing in 2007-08.  Best financial decision my wife and I ever made - Thanks ZH!

Our latest investment?  1/2 acre of Deer fence for our new orchard/garden at the homestead.

Lots of "opportunity" out there these days - it just wears overalls and looks like work. . .  =]

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:41 | 3257669 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

My Iowa cousin who did not make it into the Star Fleet Academy like I did  ;-)  lost his job at an aerospace company in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.  He had to close his company-sponsored 401k, and covert it to an IRA.  In so doing, he converted his holdings into cash, to counter his own "tail risk".  He'll need it to meet his cashflow needs that the puny UI payments do not cover.  He wishes he could BTFD and stack PM bullion, but he's got more pressing priorities than putting silver or gold on the table.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:55 | 3257116 adr
adr's picture

That would be Joe 50+ 401k. Joe Jr. was offered a 401k but since the average job lasts six months to two years, the 401k isn't a very good option. Also Joe Jr. is working for peanuts and needs the extra $20 he could put in the 401k a week for gas to get to work.

25-40 has no money outside the doctor, lawyer set. The average wage is about $12 an hour. Think there will be a country after the boomers die?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:29 | 3257000 Doode
Doode's picture

When they ask a drugdealer - he thinks that everyone is a drug user or tried it at least once. When you ask a prostitute - she thinks everyone is either a whore or uses one. When you talk to crazy people they all say that they are normal and things should be this way. If you only listen to histeria perpetuated in the comment section of ZH and do not talk to anyone else then the end of the world happened yesterday and the news just has not made it out yet - somehow... You are under the influence of your surrounding and it shows. The US can clearly go on for a decade or more before any trouble happens - that is 3 administration or an eternity in a political world. Then you pull the 1950's with inflation against a drop in retirement benefits and problem is solved. And things are not as bad everywhere even today - they are not good either, but not bad enough to call for the end today!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:22 | 3257231 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"The US can clearly go on for a decade or more before any trouble happens. . . "

The past 5 years don't already qualify as trouble?

Folks who know enough to see what's coming should be latching on to this artificial calm before the storm to get their houses in order and get prepped and resiliant.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:23 | 3257245 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Dude, what fucking US are you talking about? The "trouble" has already started. Have you checked UE numbers, price of gas, food, healthcare? Wake the fuck up already.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:28 | 3257269 Doode
Doode's picture

The market is up, the economy is growing, and the war is mostly over. My 401 K recovered in 2009 fully and been growing double digits ever since. My house value is above where it was in 2008. Inflation is still low - gold is down, Eurozone and Euro are still intact, and BLS numbers are all triple digit monthly - is it something to cheer about - no, but is it bad - not really. That is my US - what is yours? I live in NYC btw and fly around the country almost weekly.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:43 | 3257323 fuu
fuu's picture

I doubt your sincerity.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:38 | 3257501 Doode
Doode's picture

See my drug dealer post above.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:51 | 3257536 fuu
fuu's picture

138 weeks, 14 posts. 6 today, 7 last week, and 1 in January. Nothing else.

I continue to doubt your sincerity.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:58 | 3257698 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

"the economy is growing. . ."

Aye!  Really?

The bullshit sure is growing - that and debt and inflation - but that's about it in real terms.  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:08 | 3257723 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

Is that you M.D.B.???

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:49 | 3258655 kareninca
kareninca's picture

This guy is just making stuff up.  No-one who LIVES IN NYC refers to his "house value."  That's just not the usage.  And the "fly around the country almost weekly" brings it further into fantasyland.  A pretender, inventing stuff online.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:01 | 3257566 e-recep
e-recep's picture

"The US can clearly go on for a decade or more before any trouble happens"

no.

you are not paying attention.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:09 | 3257851 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

No the dumbass has no common sense and can't comprehend whats coming. You just keep on believing what you believe Doody,I'm sure it will work out good for you. sarc/

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:13 | 3257208 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>>Bernanke and his global colleagues won't get out of this alive.  It's not a threat, it is simply a prediction.

Reason for quivering lip?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:09 | 3257418 new game
new game's picture

o-care will be a spark(for anyone that has researched), but gun registration is the line in the sand that will ignite the revolution.

the question you will need to answer; will i fight for my freedom or live a serf...in or out?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:26 | 3257460 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It must be admitted that most of the reasons given in the 2008-2010 time frame for near-term collapse have been dealt with.  At the very least it must be admitted that they can kick the can on the issues far longer than you and I expected.  Maybe longer than you and I will live.

Clearly they have the tools to stomp PMs while letting stocks rise.  This would have been considered impossible in 2008.

Face it.  They have ripped up the law book completely.  Accounting means nothing.  Markets mean nothing.  Widespread unemployment means nothing.  Burgeoning welfare means nothing.  Morale hazard means nothing.  Malinvestment means nothing.  To these people.  They must have one hell of a lifeboat.

Meanwhile we must earn.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:25 | 3257637 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

"Accounting means nothing"

If you were ever to purchase a business would you believe the "accounts" you were shown ?

Or would you do your own research?

Accounts DO matter, as does which set of books you use...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 07:35 | 3258789 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Mark to model.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:38 | 3257041 marathonman
marathonman's picture

This reminds me of an article by Gonzalo Lira called Waiting for Lehman.  His assertion was that TPTB were so scared by Lehman going under that they would never allow another failure.  Two years later and a whole shit storm of water under the bridge and we are muddling along.  No one has gone to jail, Obama was re-elected, Democrats continue to hold the Senate, and that rotting carcass of the EU is still festering but animate.  We all know it can't go on.  And it won't, but calling the moment of impact is difficult.  TPTB won't tell you because they want you conned into believing that its all good or its pointless to resist, while they quietly loot your purchasing power and enslave you and your children.  It will end.  At the end of the Soviet Union, the communists just stole whatever they could get away with and retired to Switzerland.  That's what's going on at the moment.  TPTB are wrapping up the rest of our loot on their way out the door.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/10/waiting-for-lehman.html

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:41 | 3257054 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i agree with you, Japan is one good example that govs can print endlessly BUT only if something drives the world economy, not when all then engines (USA, EU, China, JPN) have stalled the same time.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:10 | 3257855 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Japan had trade surpluses and the world was growing during their problems,we are not Japan.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:44 | 3257071 harami
harami's picture

Mentioning the bible around here tends to get you down arrows, so I gave you an up version.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:03 | 3257147 adr
adr's picture

In Canton Ohio they have built at least a dozen mega churches over the last ten years. One in the old Hoover Vacuum Cleaner distribution center. It is insanity. Each one wants to pull in between $15-20 million a year to keep the doors open and run its programs.

They ask for $600 a month minimum from each member. There are quite a few retirees and pensioners who pay that and more. I don't think there is anyone under 40 that can afford to pay $100 a month.

My cousin works as an assistant pastor at one of the mega churches and gets paid $55k a year. I asked him how the place will ever be able to afford to pay him that without the boomers who keep the church alive. I asked how much he could afford to pay a month in tithes. He said, if I pay every extra penny I have at the end of the month, about $300.

I then asked how many members of the church are under 40. He said about 350. Doing some quick math put the total take, if each of those members could pay $300 a month at just about $1.4 million. I then asked how much his church pulled in last year, he said about $8 million. His church also lost money last year and had to cut staff.

Just like welfare, the church isn't going to make it. Even if they took every penny the under 40 congregation made, they still couldn't hit their funding goal.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:25 | 3257249 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Sounds like the members are buying a stairway to heaven.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:25 | 3257251 durablefaith
durablefaith's picture

Your financial analysis of the mega church model is spot on. What is worse however are the spiritual implications.

Just as the government will turn on their electorates to stay in power, so too, the churches are changing the message to keep the working people giving. To keep the buts in the seats they change their tune to suite itching ears.

The "everything is great, keep giving" message alienates the unemployed, underemployed, and the dissillusioned college grads who know all too well that tomorrow will not be much like today.  

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:13 | 3257429 new game
new game's picture

bingo, pull tabs(for quick trip to heavan) and god forbid, but the back room...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:07 | 3257413 viahj
viahj's picture

stop refering to Japan.  Japan had the benefit of selling cars and TVs to the US and EU during our debt binges.  we've run out of credit and jobs so now Japan is fucked. 

who is going to buy "our" products with expanding debt?  oh wait, we don't make anything except debt slaves and mindless slobs. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:26 | 3257459 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Doode

'Just because something is inevitable does not mean it is imminent'   Doug Casey

But when it does happen you had better be ready....a year too soon is better than a minute late...

Yes the longer things hold together the dumber we look, I agree and it is frustrating, but in the end those who prepare will live, those who do not will be much much worse off. They will say things like 'better a whore in the house than a dead baby in the crib.' (When Money Dies)...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:16 | 3257518 Doode
Doode's picture

A fair assessment - I just want the doomsayers to acknowledge that bad things may not happen in our lifetime if at all. The British Empire collapsed after nearly 40 years, Soviet Union actually collapsed in the 1970s based on the KGB's own secret internal reports, Roman Republic took hundreds of years by going to through the Empire stage first, Great Depression was certainly a great antithesis to what is going on right now - it was really bad while in it, but inflated/fought out of it and all was well again.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:09 | 3257724 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

You believed Reagan's "Morning in America" election ad? 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:21 | 3258016 Doode
Doode's picture

I was 1 or 2 then.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:48 | 3258654 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

This crash will be fairly quick - because it is caused by the end of CHEAP energy.  We borrowed and now we print to try to stay afloat - but the reality is undeniable.  We have reached the end of growth.

That means a death spiral as jobs and govt revenues continue to drop - until we have a cataclysmic economic collapse - don't expect uncle ben to stop humpty from smashing to bits like he did in 08...

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:45 | 3258651 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Japan has lasted 20 through 20 years of money printing and deflation.  But the end is in site with 230% debt to gdp

You might note Japan was suffering alone and could tap international export markets - now everyone is Japan.

It might not crash tomorrow - but it IS going to crash.

QE is not prosperity.  The stock market is not prosperity.   Without real fundamental growth the illusion will implode.

And there will be no return to real growth because we are at the END of CHEAP energy

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:13 | 3256941 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

When all manufacturing will have been transfered to China, India and Co. there might be some reaction. It might not be too far from now...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256948 ramacers
ramacers's picture

all the better for the rivers of blood. gotta happen.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:16 | 3256950 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The socialists eventually eat their own - they exist on OPM and it always runs out.

 

Europe is toast.  Ben and Barry have ensured another four Dem years, but they are now toast too.

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:42 | 3258650 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

FIST TO THE FACE of anyone who posts partisan politics on this site.

As long as the lobbyists are allowed to legally bribe the politicians, your representatives are the representatives of corporations - NOT YOU.

And by taking sides you allow yourself to be played like a fool

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:26 | 3256984 JohnGaltsChild
JohnGaltsChild's picture

What is that strange cracking noise?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:40 | 3257013 fuu
fuu's picture

It's like a family reunion.

Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil, shoot the evil.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:00 | 3257132 Hulk
Hulk's picture

you left out "make out with the cousin"...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:05 | 3257158 fuu
fuu's picture

Dude I am not your wife.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:35 | 3257030 csmith
csmith's picture

"Governments have simply not faced up to the reality that we are in a post-credit-bubble mess: they still hope the problem will be resolved by time."

So they make time "free" via ZIRP (time = money | money = zero | time = zero) and thereby destroy all urgency to invest. Brilliant!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:37 | 3257038 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

The biggest problem we face today is the fact our leaders really believe if they prop the stock market up with taxpayer cash (zombiedollars), then the economy will follow. This is what they've stated, and really believe!

This is a classic case of putting the cart before the horse, or described in the bluntest of terms, ass-backwards.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:49 | 3257086 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

you're so right, stock market prices should be resutling from a sound economy ... but inflating smp won't make the economy better

 

To put this into perspective i would say it's a bit like driving your car expecting this would fill the tank :-)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:37 | 3257039 harami
harami's picture

Everyone speaks of revolution and is blind to a few inconvenient facts.

1.  Most people are completely apathetic to wtf is going on around them.

2.  Most people that cry for revolution via their glowing screen in the safety of their home won't put their money where their mouth is.

3.  For every one person that might actually fight the man there are easily 8 or people indoctrinated in the system that would snitch or fight back.

4.  Most people might sacrifice themselves but not their families (which is what civil war really means).

5.  And the most blatantly glaring reason of all, people get more excited and active over stupid shit like the Harlem Shake than anything to do with holding their government accountable.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:54 | 3257113 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

regarding point 3. you forgot something : if you fight back (or just complain), you're a terrorist, consitutional right don't apply to you and you're worth more dead than alive !

so typical of any dictatorship !

 

so what do you offer ? do we actually get together and do something or are we too afraid to move and lose the senseless life of ours ?

i'm setting up a think tank with politicians, university teachers, economists and military officers, WHAT DO YOU DO HARAMI ?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:16 | 3257207 harami
harami's picture

I offer not getting caught up in the hype that is the doom and gloom of ZH.  This place is pretty good for a news source and keeping a pulse of what is going on in the world, but getting caught up in the frenzied lunacy of the comment section is something I'll pass on.

What is there to think about?  We, the few critical thinkers that exist (ie most people on this site) are well aware of wtf is going on and what most people here love to point out history is pretty clear it will repeat forever.  You think this time is different because of the internet?  See point 5.

All these fucking lunatics calling for the streets to run red with blood can crawl back into whatever hole they creeped out of and go fall on their swords else where for 'the cause'.

Some of the borderline schizophrenics here might refer to me as a 'sheeple' or 'slave' since I advocate taking part in the system but not being a product of the system but I have no illusions that all the revolutionists, libertarians, anarchists etc have my best interests at heart any more than the current administration.  They can fight amongst themselves who gets to be leader (hint, it will still be the banks at the end of the day).

Have as little debt as possible, don't have cable, don't watch any of the propoganda from Hollywood, get to know your community and neighbors, and have faith in God.

That's what I advocate, but usually people don't like my message.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:31 | 3257279 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Another option is to actually try and get a job for the government and then do as little as humanly possible (without getting fired) while collecting as many benefits as possible, ending with claiming permenant disability.  One slacker should be able to negate the productivity of at least 3 star workers (if there is such a thing in the government).  This starves the beast, while not injuring your local community.  One look at current govt. workforce should let you know that this strategy is already being employed widely.

In the meantime set-up a home business selling useflul stuff, like hoes and seeds, to your local community - as they'll surely be in great demand soon enough. . .

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:47 | 3257345 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Actually Harami there is a name for this type of defense: The virtuous turtle, employed properly against an enemy who cares about world opinion it may be successful, see Ghandi vs British empire.  Against other types of governments not so well, see, Armenian Christians 1919, German jews, Gypsies, Homosexuals etc 1940's Germany or anyone wearing glasses, see killing fields Cambodia.

The controls and laws our benevelence PBUH is orchestrating with the Bill Ayers and Cass Sunsteins of the world do not see your virtuous turtle shell as much of an impediment, in fact your defense should more accurately be called the ostrich.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:19 | 3257755 harami
harami's picture

Virtuous turtle shell or ostrich, I guess that's what it could be called but it's not derived from a fear of confrontation.  I pick my battles and right now I really don't think there is one to be fought.

I don't know at what point in the future the powder keg is going to light on the shit storm that is brewing in the great US of A but I think, particularly at this point in time, most of it is fear mongering.  Given the insane backlash over the new gun control laws how bat shit crazy would congress and POTUS have to be to actually pass some universal law to go out and get them?  That would create an armed insurrection instantly and we'd have tens of thousands of Christopher Dorns and Waco Texas incidents across the country, far beyond local law enforcement or the elderly DHS employees to quell with their billions of hollow point rounds.

So what could be the purpose then?  There are really only two options: The government expects the backlash and we're going to have civil war on an unprecedented and unpredictable scale OR they're intentionally stirring shit up, getting the fear in people's eyes, and ultimately they won't do anything about it. 

It's probably going to be incremental, this time it's high capacity magazines and they won't make another move for several years, maybe a decade.  I think they're testing the waters and as a whole we're the frog enjoying a nice hot bath with a temperature thats getting too hot to handle but we've long passed the point of having the capability to remove ourselves from it.

Mostly I just think all the rich old white men on this board have no fucking clue what real poverty is.  I've lived in the former USSR, southern Italy, and I've had month long trips to Egypt and Morocco.  Americans have no fucking clue what real poverty and desperation is.  They also don't realize just how little you can get by on AND still be fucking happy.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:40 | 3258649 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

I like the Amish model personally.   If we lived more like them the world would be a FAR better place

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:19 | 3257867 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Thats because you are wrong Harami

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:38 | 3258645 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

What disturbs me is not so much that people point out how thoroughly corrupted the system is - not that they sceam that it is going to collapse (It is going to collapse - anyone with half a brain can see that)

No - what bothers me is that people here seem to be actively cheering for the collapse.  They seem to wish it would happen asap and for dubious reasons

Is that simply because the tension is unbearable (kinda like you know you have  root canal coming and want the day to come so you can get it over with) - or is it because for some, life is so terrible that they want everyone - particularly the banker thieves who continue to live the high life - suffer along with them?

Personally, I am hoping for some sort of collapse for the following reasons:

- the economic model we are following which requires infinite growth in a finite world MUST change - perhaps collapse is the catalyst

- the model we are following is jeopardizing future generations as we pollute the world and deplete resources - perhaps collapse is the catalyst

All I know is that nothing will change without some serious pain.  Now will this result in a better world?  Probably not (I see totalitarian regimes with elites having private armies and the rest of us living worse than dogs).

But on some level I of course hope that we can get a better socieity out of this - even if that chance is at best 5% - it is better than the current trajectory - which means we annihilate the planet.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:35 | 3257292 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Actually he meant fight against the revolution, i.e., counterrevolutionaries and reactionaries. The Russian Civil War, as usual, provides all the necessary examples.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:30 | 3258638 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

One more point.

For everyone of the participants on this forum who will ever take up arms against the real enemy, there are 100 others who are so fucking stupid and ignorant that they will get co-opted by the elites and they will turn their guns on that one person believing HE IS THE ENEMY.

Don't believe it?

Look at the Tea Party - a legitimate movement that was turned inside out by right wing money

Look at the Vietnam War - the elites had people spitting on soldiers and calling those who protested the war crazy hippies

 

They know how to play you - and very few of you will be able to figure it out.

 

And for every one of you with a gun when exactly are you going to use it?  When do you pull that trigger?  Because day after day I see people commenting that they are getting fucked by the govt -  yet day after day they sit here and take it.

I expect that you will be like frogs in a pot - you will sit in your basements with your guns and ammo and do NOTHING.

Because the moment you get off your ass you will be on CNN identified as a terrorist.  Oh the humiliation of it all!!

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:39 | 3257048 Catequil
Catequil's picture

Protests in Bulgaria escalating to rioting as we speak. Government may fall sooner  than next elections. Mainstream media mostly silent... for now...

This is what happens when too few steal from too many - eventually a limit is reached and beyond that....

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:41 | 3257055 reader2010
reader2010's picture

"The weak are meat the strong do eat." -  Cloud Atlas

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:00 | 3257129 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Governments are now reduced to screwing their electorates for their own survival, which is their last refuge from reality."

Thank you CONgress, Supine Court, and Executive Fascist Branches of government.

The tree of liberty needs some hardcore pruning.

Pollarding even.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:07 | 3257168 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

Xero Hedge has become a propaganda outlet of Austrian economic nincompoops who do not bother to take the time to look outside their (parents') houses (basements). 

 

"The lesson, if we care to learn it, is that the product of time and money is more valuable than the desire to avoid a book loss. In economic terms, it is better for resources to be deployed efficiently than to tie them up in inefficient or unwanted activity. This is a decision for markets, not governments,"

 

This is foundationally incorrect, the product of time and money is waste ... which has no value at all, money destroys value and capital,  there is nothing to prop up the wasting process other than more and more debt.

 

Only an idiot would say to get rid of the debt for a system that relies on it like a fish requires water to breathe.

 

Fine! Get rid of the debt, but getting rid of all the other pieces of garbage that come along with the debt! Cars, airplanes, militaries, Internet, TVs, vacations, cruises, highways ... office towers, suburbs, box stores, tract houses, insurance companies, Wall Street ... there is no way to have these things because they do not earn anything real only onrushing false promises of some payment 'tomorrow'!

 

The Wimpy Economy. We are it.

 

"Governments are refusing to let markets clear: prices have not been permitted to fall to a clearing level. They put it off because the American economist Irving Fisher came up with a plausible theory about financial deflation in the 1930s, and they don’t want to face the bankruptcies of the over-indebted, the businesses that rely on the state for their survival, and the banks that have foolishly lent them too much money."

 

The author of this nonsense is not worthy to sniff Irving Fisher's shit. The market clearing price is zero, where it will stay forever until there is more debt. If more debt cannot be taken on there is no more industry, there will be universal ruin.

 

Don't bother me ... I'm a Luddite and proud of it. Fuck the industrialists. They ruined everything, now they ruin themselves.

 

The Pope in Rome can declare a jubilee, the central bankers can be lined up and shot, the debts of the world forgiven, the banks liquidated and finance crushed ... all of this by Monday ... by Thursday debts in amounts greater than those written off would need to be taken on so that the precious machines might be allowed to run.

 

OOPS! No more oil!

 

Take your pick: debt and toys and no debt and no toys and a future than includes hard work and skill, does not include comic book heroes or the stuff of science fiction. This is why the world trembles: the managers with more sense than they are given credit for cannot see any other way ... out.

 

BECAUSE THERE IS NO WAY OUT!

 

Time, children, to put away the toys.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:18 | 3257225 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I still know people (myself included) that buy toys with their savings or invest their savings.  Novel fucking concept huh?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:13 | 3257738 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

Your debts are yours, they are someone else's savings.

 

Savings are others' debts.

 

Earnings are borrowing against the accounts of customers or accounts of the state or against foreign exchange. Our economy is daisy-chains of loans.

 

Savings are a phantom (I know b/c I have some).

 

:)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:58 | 3258290 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Fuck me, I thought I was the only one.
My credit card agents always start stammering when they try
and sell me a low interest rate balance transfer.
The concept of already having a zero balance blows their fucking minds.
I'm surprised they look at my "0.00" and still call.  Buncha fucktards.
Then they ask if I would want to take a vacation and use the low rate to do it.
Debt-pimps, the fucking lot of them.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:36 | 3257294 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

A luddite with a computer. Yeah.

I get it, it's sorta like a whore with a kind heart.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:37 | 3257298 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Steve, you sound like a closet Austrian Economist.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:24 | 3257765 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Maybe...

But the clown outfit might not get him in the door.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:45 | 3257335 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

For you Steve:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WfGMYdalClU#!

An animated short on Man's relationship to the world in 3 minutes.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 18:24 | 3257634 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Luddites only opposed mechanization in the workplace, not industrialization, urbanization, productivism, or civilization.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:19 | 3257756 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

One cannot be pro-civilization and pro-industrialization at the same time. Industrialization replaces everything real -- which it destroys -- with cheap fakes.

 

It calls loans 'profit' ... money 'capital' ... waste 'product' ... destruction 'production'.

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:49 | 3258656 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

I have a small farm in Asia - I employed 10 guys to clear the land - I bought a chain saw - they (I think) intentionally broke it - they usually cut trees with small axes - initially I though 'you stupid bastards - it's so much easier to use the chain saw'

But then I thought - you smart buggers - you got a couple of months more work out of not using the chain saw

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 01:59 | 3258605 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Im giving you a green arrow in a sea of red;

Don't bother me ... I'm a Luddite and proud of it. Fuck the industrialists. They ruined everything, now they ruin themselves.

 

Dead on brother.  I run tech related businesses in Asia and the more I look at things the more I am swinging 180.  If the world was run by the Amish we'd not be perfect but we'd be:

- Happier

- Healther

- and not on the precipice of Mad Max both economically and environmentally

I don't see how anyone can argue against the above given we live in a world of FINITE RESOURCES.  We need a system that manages them thoughtfully - and only a system based on something similar to the Amish way of life does this

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:08 | 3257178 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Facebook, Apple...2 points on a line...parabola...circuit...circuit of circuits...peer pressure groups...sunk cost....

 

Government is a bank...surprise, surprise. Now, raise your children to withdraw from the bank, to build whatever private sector they want, while the majority busies itself trying to save the Titanic, sinking it faster. The Fed can choose Boeing or Microsoft...choose, and take responsibility, while the majority attempts to avoid choice, equaly, as it implodes.

And the green curtain is a ...?

So, we discussed all the fundamentals of the last military manuever to end the sh..show, the atomic bomb, and reboot. Given what you have learned since, how would you like to generate heat with this gravity, called earth / what do you want to do?

You don't have to escape from the prisoners dilemma of time. You are going to change space itself. The only plan is to adapt, accordingly.

If you have a priority list on a stack, and the weather changes, what happens to your heap? What happens to the heap of heaps?

The majority is a critter, which is fine, competing to act on a stage.

Life is about raising children, but no matter how you try, you will never convince the majority, because it hinges on lying otherwise.

"Watch me watch myself on MSNBC, or I will disappear you."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:12 | 3257198 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

Can't hold her up much longer...captain

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:23 | 3257243 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fucking Spock  would be a better "Central Bankster".  I giving her all she's got "El Capitan"...< Fucking Banana Republic (USSA)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:47 | 3257346 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

Trying to fix anything at this point is an exercise in futility.

The whole thing is so far beyond repair

Spend all your mental energy learning and creating a self-reliant lifestyle.

For the people that survive, we're going to have to go back to go ahead.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:35 | 3257900 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

The energizer's bypassed like a christmas tree, so don't give me too many bumps. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:44 | 3257331 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

It's never going down!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:50 | 3257357 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

alasdair, my dear friend, you are an economic genius.....the housing market is a prime example of where vast amounts of taxpayer funds are being funneled to banks to pay them to keep inventory off the market....the other portion of biblically epic funds are being shoveled from the usa to europe's incompetent banking megastructure.....but the point of the crisis there is to force fiscal union....

in any event, if indeed the plutocratic elite (rockefeller axis of evil) wanted a recovery, they could esaily have one using the prescription you provide....they don't want recovery, thus we will continue to melt and evaporate as capital destruction marches on unhindered.....

ps - many banks are being kept afloat with bush crime syndicate drug money - bank of america having been the recipient of such largesse a couple of years ago....

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:39 | 3257909 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

I know a lady who hasn't made a mortgage payment since around March 2009 and has not yet been foreclosed. 

 

The suit was started, but never advanced to sale, and the best part is the "pass-through certificates" plaintiff still pays the annual property taxes.

 

And this ain't no redlined ghetto shit. We're talking 150k tax assesment in the 'burbs.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 19:16 | 3257748 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

This brief post hits most revalent points with a rare clarity.

Might want to pass it on to some of those low info types who are still attached to the MSM umbilical cord or the ADD afflicted.

Well done Mr. Mccleod.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 01:42 | 3258579 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

I would but they would turn up the knob on their Cognitive Dissonance and completely dismiss this article as fear and doom mongering.

Then they would brag about how the stock and property markets are BOOMING.  How China is BOOMING.  How Europe is RECOVERING.

 

I'd like to be able to say 'I told you so' when this fucker hits but a) we will all be eating dog food so that's little consolation and more importantly b) I was saying to friends (many of them lawyer banker types) back around 2002 that the wars and corruption in the US were going to result in a catatrophic outcome - of course when we got that outcome end 07 nobody remembers the warnings. 

I often despair over the situation we find ourselves in.  But what can you do?  You can quickly become the crazy guy and a pariah...  and for what?  There is no way you can change the outcome.  You are battling against the legacy of Edward Bernays coupled with the Don Drapers of this world.

It's like trying to fill in the ocean with a shovel.

So I keep buying gold - with no certainty that my boxes in the bank vault will offer any sort of protection when the shit flies.  And we just finished off the house on the 2 hectare farm on a tropical island here in asia which is meant to be our bug out place from the city when the shit flies.

Rather sad that the best case scenario I see is martial law at some point - because the alternative is Mad Max.  And if we go that way gold and farmland will soon be in the hands of the gangster with the biggest army.

 

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