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NAHB Housing Market Index Posts First Drop In 10 Months, First Miss Since April 2012

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With the honey badger market continuing to be completely dislocated from absolutely every piece of underlying data (except for German hope and confidence reported earlier this morning), moments ago the NAHB housing market index printed at 46, on expectations of an increase from January's 47 to 48. This makes it the first drop in the index in 10 months, and the first drop to expectations since April 2012, which in turn sent the ES to fresh highs (don't ask). And while we are confident the decline will be blamed on such unpredictable aberrations as snow in January and February, a meteor shower in Russia and, of course, Bush, despite last February's print posting a solid rise from 25 to 28, perhaps the more worrying indicator was that the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers slipped a whopping 4 points to 32. The drop matched the biggest sequential declines going back all the way to 2007. And now back to your pre-spun housing recovery.

The NAHB index visualized:

And the prospective buyer component:

 

From the report:

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes was virtually unchanged in February with a one-point decline to 46 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

 

“Following solid gains over the past year, builder confidence has essentially leveled out and held in the same three-point range over the last four months,” noted NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “This is partly due to ongoing uncertainties about job growth and consumer access to mortgage credit, but it’s also a reflection of the fact that builders are now confronting rising costs for building materials and, in some markets, limited availability of labor and lots as demand for new homes strengthens.”

 

“Having risen strongly in 2012, the HMI hit a slight pause in the beginning of this year as builders adjusted their expectations to reflect the pace at which consumers are moving forward on new-home purchases,” observed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The index remains near its highest level since May of 2006, and we expect home building to continue on a modest rising trajectory this year.”

 

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

 

Holding above the critical mid-point of 50 for a third consecutive month, the HMI component gauging current sales conditions fell by a single point to 51 in February. Meanwhile, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose by one point, to 50, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers slipped four points, to 32.

 

Three-month moving averages for each region’s HMI score were mixed in February, with the Northeast up three points to 39 and the West up four points to 55 and the Midwest and South each down two points, to 48 and 47, respectively.

 


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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

All they have to do is offer a car with every house purchase. If that doesn't work then they will surely offer a free house with every car purchase. There....fixed it again.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

It's sounds so insane, until the understanding comes that it will probably be attempted, possibly with a bag full of laws behind it.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 "It's always and forever the best time to build, buy, sell, own, 'flip,' invest in & otherwise transact with real estate, houses, homes & your broker/realtorTM."

 

*Message Brought To You By The National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders & Your Local Treasurer's Office.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

HFTs and Bernanke bucks sending the markets up over 1% in EU and elsewhere today. Why buy a house when you can own real estate stocks.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

<< Why buy a house

 

Yes, why buy now when you can buy one in a few for 30-40% cheaper? I hate paying for overpriced stuff.

 

Some call me a Cheap Bastard.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

“Many great opportunities are not cheap; but some cheap opportunities are so great.”
Iveta Cherneva

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Another reason for record stock market index highs.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This is Obamas recovery 6 trillion wasted!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and that's why he needs another 30 trillion...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:42 | Link to Comment W74
W74's picture

Your Avatar makes all your comments all the more hilarious.  It's like a constipated child whining and begging for an increase in his candy allowance.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Greedy contractors are breaking ground on every previously-abandoned plot of land in my area.  People are putting down significant deposits on new homes that will likely never be completed.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

as CNN would say:

THE Housing Market Index IS UP 300% SINCE 2011!!!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:28 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The disinformation and propaganda was fun while it lasted; good for a few laughs.  Every hopium statement in the SOTU was a deliberate lie; I made a list; counted 21 in all.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

It's tough being the emperor.

 

At least Barry had his ex- "body man" Reggie Love with him for his three day vaca in FLA last weekend.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So Tiger, I hear you had like 30 women a night everywhere you went on the tour.

No that's an exaggeration Barrack, it was more like 12, pimpin ain't easy.

Ha, ha, yeah. I also hear the media knows all about it, but they don't say a word because of hurting your image.

Yeah, I've got those guys eating out of my hand. Tiger the clean wholesome half black guy is a much better story than Tiger the drugged out pimp. The media has got your back Barrack, how's your game?

Michelles touched the big man twice since we've been together, ended up with kids both times. Something about "appearances", helping the cause. Barry needs some pussy, Tiger. A man's got needs.

Ouch man, ouch. Don't sweat it. I'll set up a twelve way tonight, some MMFFFFFFFFFF action. You in brotha? Don't worry these bitches won't say nothin. Besides if they talk, you can just drone'em.

Ha ha yeah, hells yea. I'll have the dones on stand by.

.....

And now you know the purpose of Barack's golf trips.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

"And now you know the purpose of Barack's golf trips."

To clean his balls.  Secret service keeps worrying he'll fall off the ball washer.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

The sequester and what will follow already affecting prices in my area. Locals just kind of woke up to it about two weeks ago.  In December, I tried to think of a way to "short" the local real estate market, but nothing happened.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

MION: the POG (as reported so wonderfully by Kitco et al) ambled along happily this morning between USD1612 & USD1614 until Comex opened, whereupon it fell, somewhat precipitously, to USD1605, and now shows signs of breaking my favourite support trendline with determination and aplomb. WTF2 are you watching?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Surprise!  Boomers drowing in debt:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/19/us-retirement-credit-boomers-i...

"Their credit-card debt is not a good sign, but it's wrong to think a whole generation of boomers is going to be eating cat food. They're more resourceful and flexible than that, and whatever they need to do to face reality, they'll do it."

Like eating horseburgers.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So this news will send Pulte up another 250% even though they never actually completed 90% of the homes they "started".

YOU TOO CAN BUILD A NEW HOME IN A NEW DEVELOPMENT, and be the only one living there with 15 empty shells surrounding you.

It is happening all over again. A development that crashed in 2008 by me with nothing but a model home, has now started building again. There are three new homes going up spread around the 70 lots available. I've never seen slower contsruction, and two of the three have been left as insulated shells for months.

I'm thinking it is to give the appearance of activity to help Pulte stock and nothing else. They did turn the development into an Alpaca farm in 2008. I think the property owners missed the Alpaca bubble, so back to trying to sell homes on swampland in the middle of nowhere.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

This is the next leg down after the dead cat bounce of 2011-2012.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My wife is an office manager for one of the largest realtor groups in town, plus she oversees the software program that tracks all the listings in town for all the groups. She said this weekend was crazy with the new listings coming on-line. People are trying to get ready to sell in the  spring in a market that is already saturated. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

I wonder if the individual sellers will able to compete on price when the Blackrocks of the world start dumping all of those houses they bought on the cheap two years ago? It will be a blood bath and I don't think that the hedge funds will be doing the bleeding.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Blackrock bought those houses as a hedge against inflation. Proles need places to live, and rent is rent in any money. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

i'm noticing a shit ton of listings coming online as well...way way more than "pending" sales...99% of them way overpriced.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

In my town there are sale signs popping up everywhere, but they are desperation sales priced below 2009 levels. People just want out and get whatever they owe.

I live in amiddle class white town, the banks will actually foreclose on us. In the four blocks around my house I'd say there are eight or nine abandoned bank owned homes that aren't even listed for sale.

My house based on comparative sales has lost $30k in value in three months. My neighbor just put a house that was bought in 2009 for $155k up for $115k and will take the first $110k offer. $45k loss in three years. Of course whatever he does sell it for will set the price for my house as well.

Recovering housing market my ass. Sometimes an increase in sales is not a recovery. Before most corporations go out of business they see a massive increase in sales as they dump inventory at any price they can get, to get someting out of it.

I think most people in my town know values are going to zero fairly soon, better to get out now than be stuck with a $100k+ upside down mortgage.

Middle class and white is a hell of a position to be in. That $20k health care voucher for the ghetto class ain't gonna pay for itself.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My house has been on the market for a year now. We have dropped it down to what we paid for it in 1997 and we are still have a hard time getting lookers. I live in one of the nicer neighborhoods in town, the houses in out are are all taken care of land well manicured. They just aren't moving. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

are they motivated to list because banks are finally clearing out the portfolios from defaults ignored for years  to now foreclosures?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

MSM occassionally nods to the yellow metal  (yes, the one you can't eat):

 

Why we're so in love with gold

 

There's nothing like gold. For thousands of years, mankind has loved its color and the way it can be worked into beautiful things. We love how a gift made from gold makes us smile.

More globally, gold has helped economies grow by giving currencies value and enabling international commerce. And even if you can't eat gold, it's almost universally viewed as something that will have value in even the worst of times.

 

http://money.msn.com/exchange-traded-fund/why-were-so-in-love-with-gold

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index has been in steep climb since October 2011.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-weekly-topped-turned/

 

Wave B looks about done.  Next wave down will be wave C.  It's going to get messy.

 

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Kastorsky
Kastorsky's picture

bullish, apparently   

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the 1% in the SoCal market can't find enough homes in the +1 million range. supply is small, demand in high. (local TV news feature last PM)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:02 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

**

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Sell now and rent - you will be able to buy at half price within a year.

Unless of course Bernanke ups the ante and instead of printing 40 bill a month to be used to buy up foreclosed dumps, he increases that to 100b.

Not hard to imagine considering what he's done to date.  But I suppose better than the other options - which involve total collapse of the global economy and me eating dog food

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 03:55 | Link to Comment Financial Consulting
Financial Consulting's picture

The National Association of Homebuilders' Housing Market Index (HMI) was reported as having edged down to 46 in February (the median forecast was for a small rise to 48) following an unrevised January reading of 47. The homebuilder survey has historically been a reasonably reliable short-term leading indicator of single family housing starts (although it is far from perfect). 

Financial consulting 

 

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