Silver's Four Hour Slamdown Window

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As silver suffers its biggest one-day drop of the year, following a February of strange 'spikey' behavior, we thought it might be useful to show just what has been going on for the last few weeks. It appears that from the open of US equity trading pre-market to the close of Europe's equity markets (~0730ET to ~1130ET), Silver has been offered non-stop. Out of that four-hour window, on average, Silver has not moved in the month of February. With the dramatic nature of physical demand at the Mint, this serial slam-down of Silver just seems a little too premeditated and predictable.

 

February has seen more than its fair share of price drops...

 

but they appear to be strangely collected in a brief four hour window at the start of the day... the black line is the average of the day's performance in February across the dates selected.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:15 | 3256947 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Buy the peak? Buy high, sell low?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:07 | 3257973 Likstane
Likstane's picture

I dunno either...how does it go again?  Something about dips and sex or purchasing something? 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:58 | 3256644 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Sure, I'll stack some more.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:58 | 3256645 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

The writing was on the wall for paper PMs a few months ago.  I took my hits, did you take yours?

Now with a wide correction looming, expect greater pain.  NTTAWWT, if you believe in the position and can hold.

And if you are strictly into physical, this does not matter.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:30 | 3256775 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I'll fix it for ya.....

Now with a wide correction looming, expect greater pain.

Now with widespread corruption looming, expect more intense manipulation.

YW.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:00 | 3256646 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

let me ask...

who of ya'll out there r shook by this blatant bullshit being carried out on the phony future exchanges??

who out there knowing what this shit is really all about is giving their REAL money back to the sociopath bankers so they can receive their worthless green debt coupon dollars for anything that doesnt involve a life or death matter????

not me i assure you....

again, just stick to the plan and have some fucking balls....you r fighting sociopaths in a most important war that is about more than money...its about mother fucking real FREEDOM as opposed to perpetual debt enslavement.....

man up bitchez....Silver must be bought  - especially when on SALE!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh-xQbfOoFI

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 13:59 | 3256648 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Silver/aapl comparison chart please.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:00 | 3256651 atomic180
atomic180's picture

AKA the CFTC/SEC porn viewing window...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:02 | 3256659 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Use the Force, Blythe!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:02 | 3256660 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Never had any paper SLV but I have a pretty impressive stack of shiny stuff right next to me. 743 oz and adding weekly. I like the stuff and don't pay any attention to paper prices except it allows me to add more physical cheaper. Let's talk in 5 years

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:05 | 3256670 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I assume you own a solar powered forklift.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:08 | 3256679 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Uh...do you have a boat?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:35 | 3256803 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Congrats, you just made list for a Fema camp residency. 

Love,

DHS

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:36 | 3256806 espirit
espirit's picture

I lost at least that amount in my last "boating accident".

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:39 | 3256817 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You're hoarding - leave some for others.  You know, at 770 million oz/year production you're only allowed 1 oz every 9 or 10 years as your fair share of the global allocation.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:04 | 3256664 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

its surreal to read your earlier piece that the Fed just bought 30yr issued only a week ago, after waking up to sub $30 silver.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:07 | 3256676 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

...this serial slam-down of Silver just seems a little too premeditated and predictable.

 

RIIIGHT!! AAPL moves down on fundamentals, silver only moves down on manipulation. GOT IT! :ROLL: :ROLL: :ROLL: YOU PEOPLE ARE HILARIOUS!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:26 | 3256758 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I missed seeing serial "fall down a mineshaft" candles for days and weeks on end of apple sellers contravening rationality.

 

At this point I'm not sure who I think is dumber, the people who don't think silver is manipulated (overtly and heavily), the people who say silver is going to 500 imminently, or me for being converted tot he wierdo cult of stacking a number of years ago.

 

The only thing I do know is blythe's cunt smells like an open grave. I actually just strongly suspect it (much in the way I think the taste of shit is bad).

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:18 | 3256957 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Correct, buzz isn't very bright, and Blythe's clam schmells terrible.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:32 | 3257019 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I beg to differ.! Buzz is quite intelligent, and Blythe can suck my silver rod! ( if she still Has Jamie Dimons leverage)

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:40 | 3257505 squib
squib's picture

Indeed and I caught you being observant again.

You are like 'ol Slewie that way, with people saying 'huh-what'?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:29 | 3257218 Swarmee
Swarmee's picture

Care to point out the supply or demand fundamentals that just changed that might explain this? Not vague statements either, how about any report from anywhere detailing less demand? Investment demand is way up from mint reports. Not seeing anything at the moment which speaks to industrial demand slowing directly. But of course any hot war will require large munitions, many of which use hundreds of oz of phyz for components. And that stuff is then spread far and wide, unlikely to be collected by anything other than nano bots in some distant future. How many oz did the US spread over the desert protecting the last no fly zone?

Central banks WAY up on gold purchases, platinum mine disruptions reducing that supply. Better to buy something when it is unwanted, yes?
Keep putting it on sale, we'll make sure it has a home.

Was every king in history buried with tombs covered in paper, or shiny metals?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:08 | 3256678 adr
adr's picture

Imagine if oil were coveted as a store of wealth by the general public. We'd be back to paying $.50 a gallon in no time.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:08 | 3256680 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

i've tried to make this point here before.  We all know there are a zillion reasons why Silver and Gold make sense, but yet here we are in a downtrend since May of 2011.  Using SLV and GLD as a proxy (I know, I know physical is the way to go blah, blah, blah) the charts have repeatedly teased but told you to stay out of SLV and GLD from the long side beyond some quick trades.  the downtrend is very clear on the weekly charts.

One reason in my view is because Bernanke and his crew obviously have no reason to support the prices of silver or gold.  So, (stick with me here) these commodities actually do move pretty fucking close to what the charts and sound TA would suggest.  In other words, without Uncle Benny backing something the charts are pretty fucking accurate predictors of future price action.  When Benny is there to stroke one's balls then the charts can move close to the point where they are about to break down and then BOOM voila all of a sudden there is a major pop higher (look no further than ES and EURUSD to see this clear as day). 

Sorry boys, without Benny putting Silver and Gold on his "don't ever let these fall list" there will need to be price/volume action that occurs that suggests much higher prices in the future.  Everyone in the world already knows there is reckless money printing and currency destruction underway, yet here we are with the metals sliding further down.  Just look at how ZNGA fell like a rock a few months ago and AMZN just won't ever break down (at least not yet).  One is deemed "too important to bubbly excitement to fail" and the other is not. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:11 | 3257160 devo
devo's picture

Downtrend, yes, but that can break any second and your perception will change with it. The idea is to buy when people are bearish so long as the fundementals make sense, and they do more than ever.

PMs had huge moves before the housing crash and QE programs so there's more to it than QE. And the masses are usually wrong, so if they're bearish now there's that contrarian indicator.

I heard a story about a family in Poland who found their grandmother's safe buried in the wall and prayed it had gold in it, but it had some old Polish paper currency (enough to buy a house in the day) worth 0. Whenever I wonder why I am holding metals I think of that story. "Invest" what you can afford to "lose" and you just don't care very much about spot, and that's a nice feeling and nice security blanket to have.

Note: I'm a realist and don't blindly love PMs or any asset; they just make all the sense in the world until the dollar gets halved (or worse).

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:47 | 3257342 Mortimer
Mortimer's picture

the devolution revolution is never wrong. what we do is what we do. got that?!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:54 | 3257377 jomama
jomama's picture

did you seriously just compare gold and silver to Zynga and Amazon...?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:34 | 3256686 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

But anyway, it requires an unbelievable courage to smash down the price facing the tight supply and historically the highest coin demand. The cartel must go to its utter limits to shatter the sentiment. Either they silence the sentiment at all costs or they risk metal default, sort of going for broke. This fiendish courage is exactly what is so persuasive and what eventually discourages many people from buying metal even when backed by mere illusion. Congratulations Ashkenazim, there is still a lot to learn from you! Just let you pray guys so that not many of us will debunk and realize the nature of this farce at the same time.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 17:00 | 3257393 seek
seek's picture

No courage is involved. They've been promised an endless supply of USD from the Fed.

Tight supply is fixed by bombing futures prior to expiration, to take out people who wanted delivery, and by simply stopping sales of ASE and AGEs to the proles due to "supply."

And if that fails, MFG people standing for delivery and take their toys.

It's easy to be bold when you're backstopped by the Fed and there's zero risk of prosecution.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:26 | 3258775 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Endless supply of USD and paper gaming are irrelevant as long as the metal supply is drying up. Foreign banks (and likely Western banks too) as well as funds and commodity investors are piling metal. The more dollars are printed to suppress PMs the sooner they are out of stock and spot prices/margins will skyrocket.

Zero risk of prosecution? Well, it might be so for now. But audit the gold vaults properly and the Fed immediately fetches up far away from its current legal shield. Cannot it ever happen? Yes, it can, the large Soviet Empire was set to last forever and it eventually collapsed literally within few weeks. But you're perhaps right in somewhat misleading usage of 'courage'. I should rather have written 'cocksureness backed by false assumption of everlasting untouchability'.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:14 | 3256695 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Stupid boomers should have bought SLV at 50! LMAOMAOMAOMAO!!!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:15 | 3256697 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Today's slam down on silver is carry over from Friday's high-volume turnaround day.  The commercial long position is extremely high on PMs right now.  I would expect a spike higher this week to be followed by rapid buying activity.  (Gold is not even testing 1600 today on reduced range, a very good sign of turnaround).  

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:15 | 3256698 pan
pan's picture

Big thanks to Blythe Masters!  BTFD!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:15 | 3256700 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The ultimate goal of all of these manipulated runs is to short, cover, and run it back up. I don't need PM's today, but I want them because I may need them in the future. Buy the dip, stack your PM's, and don't worry about PM prices until the debt bubbles pop.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:16 | 3256705 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Liberty and honest money cannot be kept down forever, the more you fuck with it the more it is sought.  Enjoy your sunset Control Freaks.......

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:16 | 3256706 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I'm doing a fun little experiment.  A few weeks ago, I bought 1 bitcoin for $18 and decided that I'll hold it until I can buy an ounce of silver with it.  The bitcoin is now worth almost $28.  If they keep slamming silver and the bitcoin keeps appreciating, I will have bought an ounce of silver for $18 worth of Charmin.  Good times.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 16:53 | 3257366 jomama
jomama's picture

bitcoin hit parity with 1oz. silver today.

hilarity ensued.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:19 | 3256725 adr
adr's picture

The number one performing asset of 2013 is going to be 9mm and 556 ammo. You can't find any.

I can still find rifle slugs, shotgun shells, .44 magnum, and 406. High caliber single shot stuff can be found almost anywhere. I think people know when the shit hits, they are going to need to fire more than one shot. I man a shotgun is great for a home invasion, but when 100 Homeland Security goons are attacking, you'll need something better.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:21 | 3256733 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

They're the equivalent of SEIU public union goons with guns.  When they see their co-workers dropping they'll go on a permanent smoke break.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:59 | 3256897 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Im not sure what will protect you from 100 Homeland Security dudes.

How do you like your steak done?

 

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 15:39 | 3257049 JohnGaltsChild
JohnGaltsChild's picture

Anyone got any 223?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:19 | 3256728 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Thank you Bart Chilton.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:21 | 3256735 Odin
Odin's picture

BTFD "Blythe The Fuck Doll"......"I kock em' down, you stack em' up"......Blythe you dirty dirty girl, you got my bullion all hard...

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:21 | 3256736 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Must be Golds turn next.

Fuck yous bankers and your paper promises.
You know what they say about promises.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:22 | 3256739 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

The "stackers" are feeling the heat as equities ramp up to assume the role as "money". Owning the S&P is the best inflation hedge on the planet! Buy stocks and retire!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:22 | 3256740 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Tyler - please could you see to posting an article regarding the Bulgarian protests?  MSM are trying very hard to ignore it.  It sounds like this could be a wake up call for many.

http://news.yahoo.com/bulgarians-protest-foreign-power-companies-153248204--finance.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=feed

Although Yahoo! mention the energy companies, they miss the point about this being a general protest against TBTB (banksters, crooked politicians, usual suspects), and in particular they wish to nationalise the recently opened Canadian owned Gold mine (PM angle, see? :) ) 

Protests started at the weekend -  the people have given TPTB 7 days before destruction ensues.  Police have been dropping riot shields and accepting flowers from the crowd as they refuse to resist what is seen as a legit protest.

Thanks!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:22 | 3256743 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I'm still contemplating the 401k loan for PMs.  Somebody talk me into it or out of it, please.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:30 | 3256773 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Close you 401K and then buy physical.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:33 | 3256791 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

I have to quit my job to do that, which I've actually been considering, sadly enough.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 14:36 | 3256808 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Interest payments from a 401(k) loan are not tax deductible.

You will also pay taxes twice on the amount you took out for a loan.  Your 401k loan payments are deducted after taxes have been taken out of your paycheck.  However, since pre-tax money is usually used to fund a loan, the payments are put back into your 401(k) as pre-tax funds. This means that when you take the money out later, you will have to pay taxes on it again.

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