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Over the past few years, Citi's Matt King notes that the future never seems to become quite bright enough to offset the underlying economic and political realities. When we have been in this situation before, something has happened to make the markets nervous again, and then the outlook has darkened. Typically it’s been because of back-pedalling by policymakers on reforms, or doubts about central banks’ willingness to continue injecting liquidity at tighter spread levels. Recent headlines about limiting the scope for bank recapitalization by the ESM, sequestration probabilities, and about central banks’ growing nervousness that markets are running ahead of economic reality make us doubt that this time is any different.

 

 


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Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Cojones
Cojones's picture

Where does 'Central Banks Print Money' fit in?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:35 | Link to Comment NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

That would be a "Constant" in that equasion, like a Timex Ben Press's keep on a Clicking

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:38 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Perhaps this is why some say yields will remain at rock-bottom levels for years...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1203761-the-bond-bubble-might-surprise-you

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:47 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Where is "derivatives structure implodes"?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:33 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

seems like straight up since 666 spx

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 02:34 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

so we are here where the dither-er "pledge to spend without adding 'dime' to deficit "  ;-/

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your exactly right, the printing of money is the oil or fuel for the circle.  What happens though is that as more money is printed it makes the time between each length of the circle to become shorter and shorter to the point that eventually it will be just market falling.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Selah
Selah's picture

That would be where: " Policy Makers Take Action"

 

Have you been paying attention to the last few years?

Central Banks = Policy Makers

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:14 | Link to Comment willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Exuberant Euphoria-->Policy Makers suck 10 billion from peasants--> Market Crashes, Congress promises reforms--> Policy makers enter in when everyone else is broke or scared to death-->Market rebounds, confidence must be due to reforms-->Exuberant Euphoria-->

Policy Makers=congress=vampires

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 03:50 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's like DAYS OF OUR LIVES!

 

You might have skipped a few seasons but when you start looking again, Richie is still playing arround with Obama's wife, Ben's still printing and the intriges pille up one after another.

Maybe Timmy will do a reappearance in the next season?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

Policy Makers Take Action.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The world continues to spin about its axis....until it doesn't. All we need to know to predict the next collapse in stock values is to see want underlying fundamentals support the current prices....and there are none. These prices will evaporate faster than a corzine managed customer account. 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Lots of policymaker dithering, or is it dicking the public?

I have to question "policy makers take action".  What would that be, increasing the debt ceiling ad infinitum?  FED money printing and QE to the moon?  That isn't action, it's a heroin injection into the body public.

I'll cheer the market collapse becuase it has become nothing but a Ponzi meter.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:45 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Ground Hog Day - Bill Murray rocks

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

You Rang?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:48 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Like the old days, when the few desire a profit, a whole species of buffalo almost became extinct.

There are other examples.

Human nature hasn't changed, but today we are the buffalo.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

no - we're lemmings.... Buffalo were noble beasts hunted to death.   We're mindless rat like creatures following our leaders over a cliff to our doom

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment marathonman
marathonman's picture

I'm certainly not following a leader over a cliff.  They may drag me kicking and screaming but I ain't following anyone over it!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:48 | Link to Comment MoneyThangs
MoneyThangs's picture

I lost millions reading ZH and going short, I will only listen to GS from now and buy hand over fist everyday

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

The fastest way to create a small fortune is to start with a large one.

 

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@MoneyThangs

GS's year-end target for SPX was 1250.  You could have made money fading that advice, which ZH pointed out.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Gone short on thinking for yourself?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Nice chart.

But he missed 2 things....especially since he works at Citi:

After "Outlook improves", there should be a space for "Banks steal your money" and then at the other end of the spectrum, have, "You Finally Notice we Stole Your Money".

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:50 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Limited closed loop system.  After the markets sell off, Mad Max would replace "outlook deteriorates" then "policymakers take action" would evolve to total anarchy where policymakers reap what they have sown.

Just saying.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment nothing can go wrogn
nothing can go wrogn's picture

"Markets sell off" should be replaced with "Control-P" and an arrow pointing upward to "Zimbawbwe."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:18 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Any chance my Zimbabwe trillions will be worth something in the near future?   

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Desert Rat
Desert Rat's picture

While true, it does not factor time... That is the incalculable variable.. "The waaaaaitin is the hardest part..."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:54 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Biderman says wages and salaries are soaring. Doubling each month. Companies are finally hiring. And he is likely pissed that he lost so many clients from going short too soon.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:54 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

So if you invest in the market here, you will be a circle jerk.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 "Punxsutawney Phil", saw Blankfeins shadow and ran back into his hole!

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

Is this a positive or a negative loop. Same old crap. Is as much I would like to see things blow up, I don't see a mechanism that would trigger it.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 20:58 | Link to Comment jldpc
jldpc's picture

The "Policy Makers" decided some time ago to debase the currency because they "can" get away with "printing money" (in all of the marvelous ways that they have creatively come up with) until the system collapses. Any belief that they will change their behavior is delusional. If Obama's mentors from the Univ. of Chicago have their way, and they probably will, they will continue on this path until there are no more "poor People." They have beautifully co-opted the financial elite, whose asset base will double or triple in nominal terms, if not in purchasing power per se. What diffference does it make if the fancy estate "costs $10mm or $40mm, as long as your asset base has risen proportionately.  All the doom, glumm, and gloom guys on ZH are obviously not part of the financial elite. Ever hear a bankster complain about Ber nake's policies. And for all of you commentators here, WB included, the cover, the mask, the charade, the underlying rationale, the reason that all of this shit will not stop is............................... the dual mandate - inflation and unemployment. It is the latter that his honor the Chairman uses to justify his behavior. The neo-communists from Chicago, have got Bernake by the balls. Everybody knows that the housing bubble made a lot of highschool, and nearly highschool graduates, and undocumented aliens unemployed. They were otjherwise unemployable then, are unemployable now, and will continue to be unemployable, until the m9iddle class white women - single divorced moms - give up the hope that Johnnie the dumb lazy ass "must" go to college, instead of trade school, or an apprentice program. Now Johnniw is deep in debt, his mother is hopelessly voting for Obama, and will vote again for Hillory to save their asses. But alas, the beat will go on, the federal support of everybody and evrything, except the baby boomers and thier savings accounts and purchasing power, will continue for decades. Why? Because we are faced with cultural normative belief sets - not as the idealogues would have you believe mere financial and economic "conditions." Such matters take decades to replace; BECAUSE only abject failure causes a change in attitudes. And so long as they out vote you, outnumber you at the polls, and your carefully chosen representatives are cowards, the future is plain to see, and easily predicatable.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Desert Rat
Desert Rat's picture

damn.... the truth hurts

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It's also kind of fuckin' hilarious

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

only abject failure causes a change in attitudes

Bada bing, bada boom, bitchez.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

So,,,  the moral of your story is......Buy gold and silver?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:00 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

Where is "stacks fall off stern"?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:10 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

It is different this time, instead of losing 78% of your money, you'll lose 99%.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

I bought some ERY (short Financials).  How much might I make?

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:11 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

 

 

Why go to Disneyworld? 

We get to ride the teacups in real life.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

I did not see a drone in there.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Wanton1
Wanton1's picture

Where is says, "Outlook deterioriates"

Is where you take "Colloidal Silver."

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

Nothing in politics is by accident. The power group with the greatest cohesive vision/agenda invariably dominates (for a time) the stage. Our current dominant group likes it like this, and is keeping it like that. They have found a way to justify funneling over $1,000,000,000,000 per year into their pockets, at the expense of the federal indebtedness of the USA. What is happening is the greatest heist in American history. Its the easiest money they have ever made. And IMO this is the last gallon of blood they will get from this victim, before it becomes "unproductive" to their intentions.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

What does 'market sell-off' mean?

 

In order to sell, the seller needs a buyer. Who's going to buy?


I will buy, for sure, but at Dow 4000.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Stock market is same as housing market.....

Fed prints - hands out cash to buddies at zirp - they buy stocks.... they buy foreclosed properties.

This market is for all intents and purposes a closed loop - similar to a washing machine

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:46 | Link to Comment Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Why not just go from Outlook Improves straight to Policy Makers Take Action?

and by action I mean playing golf or going skiing.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:51 | Link to Comment JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Or taking bribes and hiring hookers.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 22:19 | Link to Comment BeagleOne
BeagleOne's picture

I'm buying at 3500.

Tue, 02/19/2013 - 21:57 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Those sound like good horse racing names. 
Would make for a great call to a photofinish where they all cross into the grinder.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 00:37 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

The wheels on the fed go round and round....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 06:04 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

You are here : On this subject the gap between the mainstream and contrarian media like ZH widens. 

See the rationale behind this in BI (mainstream financial "tabloid") : GOLD GOES INTO A DEATH CROSS - Business Insider

Its quite contrary to ZH's prediction for Gold over 2013, where the current economic climate projected will increase market instability and therefore need for money safe havens. 

The bulls are out in strength in mainstream but the bears of contrarian thinking are just as stubborn. 

Folies Bergeres wide splits bitchezzzz! 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E. Coyote sell off is getting closer as SP500 daily & weekly uptrends simultaneously complete a protracted topping process.

It’s taking longer to roll over because daily AND weekly trends are terminating together.

Therefore the resultant downtrend should have good momentum.

http://trader618.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!