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Cashin, Klarman, & Marks: "Un-abating Risks Of Collapse"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One can spend all day watching financial media channels stuffed full of self-promoting index-hugging asset-managers and be left with the belief that all is well and that the market does indeed represent our reality... Or, as UBS' Art Cashin notes today (confirming what we first published a month ago - here, here, and here), there is more (well less) to today's global economy and markets than meets the eye or rests in the headlines. His excellent diatribe today reiterates our previous comments of investing icons such as Baupost's Seth Klarman and Oaktree's Howard Marks that "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors."

 

Via Art Cashin,

Cautionary Comments From Investing Icons – Near legendary investor, Seth Klarman caused a good deal of buzz yesterday:

Investing today may well be harder than it has been at any time in our three decades of existence," writes Seth Klarman in his year-end letter. The Fed's "relentless interventions and manipulations" have left few purchase targets for Baupost, he laments. "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors.

Another icon causing a lot of buzz was Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital. Warren Buffet once said something like – Whatever Howard Marks writes, I try to read. Marks gave an interview which you can access at http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?283882. Here's a typical part:

The level of economic activity, anecdotal as you describe, is not an indication of health in the future. It is an indication of health in the present. The question is, what are the implications for the future? When you say restaurants are full and you can’t get a cab, there is no contravening the fact that the economy is doing well at the top. The problem is the people who are not in the upper strata; their incomes are flat to down, they are losing their overtime. The joblessness rate is up significantly and that excludes people who aren’t seeking jobs and are unemployed — their future is not good. The ratio of income from the top to bottom is higher than in the past, which itself is unhealthy.

 

In fact, restaurants were full in 2006 and early 2007 as well. So, don’t get carried away. The point the memo tried to make is that the world went through a period that is now about roughly 50 years old in which it levered up very substantially. Credit was available too freely, used aggressively, and people borrowed money to make expenditures. If you borrow money to take a vacation, a year later the vacation is over but you still have the debt. That is the status of the world today. The world borrowed a lot of money for expenditures, some of which were imprudent and today it is left with a hangover of debt and the current income, especially at today’s moderate levels, aren’t sufficient to amortise the debt. That is very worrisome and that is just one of the main things. You look all around the world and over-leveraging is the common thread.

 

Look at the average American. I have been telling my friends in Europe for several years that the average American has $1,000 in the bank, owes $10,000 on their credit card, makes $20,000 a year after taxes — by the way, I am exaggerating, these are not specific data but conceptual — and spends $22,000.

That is not healthy.

Anyway, there is more to today's global economy and markets than meets the eye or rests in the headlines. Then there's geo-political risk – let's not go there.

 

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Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:56 | 3261770 MrX
MrX's picture

this sums it all up nicely: http://vimeo.com/15056028

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:32 | 3261856 notbot
notbot's picture

One of my favorite lines from Klarman's letter is his dig at Krugman: 

To meet the annual cost of all its unfunded obligations, the U.S. government would, by  some estimates, need to take in an additional $7 trillion a year.  Yet all federal taxable income-- individual plus corporate, in its peak year of 2006--totaled only about $6.7 trillion, meaning that  these entitlements are completely unaffordable and can never be paid.

 

The sooner we acknowledge the full reality of our predicament and amend benefits and eligibility for these programs, the better the chance of limiting the uncertainty and potential social upheaval when the promised benefits fail to appear.

 

Worse still, today’s debt-service costs are artificially low because interest rates have been pushed down by QE, masking the mounting danger. One prominent economist bizarrely argues (twice weekly) that today’s deficits pose no danger because interest rates remain historically low, as if QE were not artificially driving down rates and as if markets are not both fickle and often wrong.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:40 | 3261871 Manthong
Manthong's picture

What’s the problem?

We get 85 billion new rock solid digital underpinnings a month to shore up the system.

Stacked electrons have incredible nominal compressive strength.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:53 | 3261905 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

That's sly and all, but it's more fun to call Krugman an intellectually dishonest cunty-faced douchebag who enjoys getting tea bagged by winos in his spare time.

But that's just me.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:38 | 3262010 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

I applaud your sentiment, but I just hope the association of Krugman and the holy-of-holies disappears before my next visit there.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:53 | 3262045 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

But at least he is faithful to his completely miswired brain.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:27 | 3262137 Osmium
Osmium's picture

+1 for the term 'cunty face'.  Not sure I have ever heard that before.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:39 | 3262170 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Paulie W on Sopranos used to tell Christopher "Don't be so cunty"-always liked that one

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:59 | 3262454 dunce
dunce's picture

I think you are a bit harsh on winos.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:46 | 3261885 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

rukeyser ("wall street week") in his final episode was edging dangerously close to calling for viewers to leave their tv and start following him on a weblog/videolog

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXWmizDCv1k&t=640s

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:41 | 3262174 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

rukeyser-that guy was awesome-remember watching him during tech bubble in 90s at 6:30 Fri night on WTTW.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:06 | 3262461 dunce
dunce's picture

I really liked watching him also. After he was gone the show was a waste of time and opportunity. All they needed to do get someone with the same manner and philosophy. I have forgotten who they replaced him with, but then probably every one did because they were forgettable.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:05 | 3261935 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

The "Pray for an end to Faith" video is probably a fair representation of what is going to happen "on Wall Street" sometime soon... The only difference being, there will be lots of guns involved.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:53 | 3261771 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Don't worry, Berstanke's a master abater.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:53 | 3261774 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

I read this on Business Insider earlier today.  Does that mean ZH is now mainstream?

http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-seth-klarman-quote-2013-2

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:06 | 3261807 Conman
Conman's picture

Sure if you discount the fact that ZH usually posts Cashin's stuff , then yes they are mainstream.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:36 | 3262158 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You'll know when ZH is mainstream...

~~~

It'll be the day that francis_sawyer comments criticizing the mezmerizing plethora of 'jewry' in banking & MSM begin to be deleted...

Mainstream would NEVER tolerate anything published on that level...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:10 | 3262464 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Drudge refers to ZH. That means that the most important consolidator on the planet has his eyes on ZH.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 09:50 | 3262845 El
El's picture

Drudge refers to Alex Jones and InfoWars, too, so I'm not sure what that means.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:53 | 3261775 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

and rewarded by the system for doing so

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:41 | 3261875 unrulian
unrulian's picture

NO more ZH posting anonymity...

Creates the Internet Posting Removal Act. Provides that a web site administrator shall, upon request, remove any posted comments posted by an anonymous poster unless the anonymous poster agrees to attach his or her name to the post and confirms that his or her IP address, legal name, and home address are accurate. Effective 90 days after becoming law.

Not wanting to leave any bases uncovered, Silverstein includes that an “Anonymous Poster” means “any individual who posts a message on a web site including social networks, blogs, forums, message boards, or any other discussion site where people can hold conversations in the form of posted messages.”

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/meet-the-internet-posting-removal-act-an-illinois-bill-thatll-make-your-head-spin_022013

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:58 | 3261915 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well that makes sense. Why would you want to live in a world where ideas stand and fall on their own merits? It's much better to identify the source of any ideas, so you can go ahead and just attack the person instead.

"We don't even let them have ideas. Why would we let them have guns?"
-- "Uncle Joe" Stalin

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:01 | 3262061 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

One of the great things of the Greek Civilization was the importance they placed on argumentation.

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:43 | 3262181 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

IL is getting crazier by the day-at least I'll have a ringside seat for the collapse-it's a mad race between IL and CA

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:08 | 3262402 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That proposed Illinois legislation is a shot across the bow of the beginning of the great statist charge to dismantle information sharing and free expression of opinion on the internet. It's a thinly veiled, pure intimidation tactic to suppress dissent & the ability to mobilize movements and resist the power of government.

Be prepared to see the great race to shred the usage of the internet for anything other than mindless "entertainment" and the exposure to state-sponsored propaganda.

If there's one thing the elite can't tolerate, since it gives rise to movements that upset their corrupt apple cart, it's real freedom of expression and dissent, especially at the speed of fiber optic cable.

They are already freaking out regarding what's already begun in this regard, and especially discussion of or about the whos, whys, hows and wheres of their specific corruption [by "the plebes" who used to be completely in the dark & who had limited mechanisms to discuss these matters at the speed of near light], and they're going to do everything in their power to try and stamp this powerful trend out, using laws and actual physical infrastructure changes, as quickly and robustly as they can.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 10:58 | 3263141 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

A state becomes craziest just before it collapses.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 11:31 | 3263310 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Haven't they tried to stamp out file sharing? What have they accomplished? Managed people's perception turning the free exchange of information into shameful. But those unplugged still do it. They get a couple scalps and get a young prodigy to kill himself but progress rolls on. They may make anonymous comments shameful in the eyes of the sheeple but they simply lack the ability to make that sort of regulation work.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:22 | 3261971 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

Oh well guess it is time to start spray painting anti government slogans on building walls........again.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:44 | 3262024 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

WTF, Illinios is USSR...  Fucking Nazi Bastards...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:08 | 3262080 Desert Rat
Desert Rat's picture

Illinois...? Chicago...? DUH!?!?!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 07:43 | 3262579 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

I hate Illinois Nazi's!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:44 | 3262188 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

sponsor-IRA SILVERSTEIN-you can't make this shit up. how are they going to enforce it?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 11:53 | 3263419 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Do a google search for that bill. No mention of it by any "Mainstream" 'news' site. Imagine that.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:56 | 3261777 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

 I have been telling my friends in Europe for several years that the average American has $1,000 in the bank, owes $10,000 on their credit card, makes $20,000 a year after taxes — by the way, I am exaggerating, these are not specific data but conceptual — and spends $22,000.

 

Hmm.. maybe I need to work longer than 6 months a year.. ?? Naww fVk that.. I still have credit cards I havent used yet.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:54 | 3261780 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

If you cant afford to go first class, charge it

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:46 | 3262191 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

"Fuckin finance it!" Judge Reinhold in Ordinary People

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 11:54 | 3263431 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Ruthless People.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:54 | 3261781 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Auntie em  -Its a twister , its a twister!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:55 | 3261783 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

It was a hell of a party in the 80's also until it wasn't....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:59 | 3261790 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

oh well who cares now, spain goes down tomorrow and it's going to be EPIC :-)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:12 | 3262411 Legolas
Legolas's picture

+1 for the optimism

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:59 | 3261791 Conman
Conman's picture

Howard Marks clearly does not have a beard or phD in economics or else he wouldn't be saying such blasphemous things.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:04 | 3261801 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

Yep, if you don't have a PhD, then STFU!  No one cares what you think!  You don't know shit because you weren't taught shit, so shut the fuck up you fuckers and rabble rousers!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:48 | 3262025 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I see your PhD in Keynsian Economics and raise you a PhD in Austrian Economics.  If there is an odds-on favorite who takes up the crown after the Keynsians are finally disgraced and banished to obscurity, it would have to be the Austrians, in my opinion.

Not all PhD's are idiots.  No more so than the general population.  So, like 98% idiots, 2% not idiots.

For the rest of us, I would say that you don't need a Meteorologist to know which way the wind is blowing.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:44 | 3262380 Conman
Conman's picture

The fatal flaw is thinking that economics is a science. First clue is not getting the intended or theorized result ever

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:17 | 3261829 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Bartender!...get this man a drink on his tab...ah hell, get everybody set up!

I'm feeling generous ;-)

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:15 | 3262106 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

"Tequila is good for the Soul" - Me

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:23 | 3262128 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

and Beer.. we'll, I just love that shit.lol

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:05 | 3261805 delivered
delivered's picture

The well informed, experienced, knowledgable, and objective professionals/leaders will tell it like it is (just like in this article). The puppets, adhering to their masters, poorly educated, in-experienced, corrupt, and inept, will tell it like it isn't and spin the current situation in the most positive fashion possible (through the vast media resources available). Really enjoy these types of articles from knowledgable people but unfortunately, most don't stand a chance of getting heard in today's socialized market. But let's face it as it really doesn't matter if it's a person that is overleveraged and lived beyond thier means, a company, or a government, in the end, excessive leverage and debt backed with no real assets will eventually collapse.

Just a matter of time and pressure with the collapse now as even event that may be considered relatively small or insignificant could bring the entire system down. Will it be the poor start to the year for the likes of Wal-Mart, other discounters, and fast food joints (already complaining that higher gas prices and the increased taxes are taking a bite from their target market's wallets), another currency devaluation or series of devaluations (i.e., Venezuela), a Euro member bolting unexpectedly, another corrupt bailout of an insolvent financial company, or something even smaller. When deck is stacked ever so higher with a base that is getting weaker and weaker, it only takes the slightest breeze to bring it tumbling down.

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:06 | 3261806 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The fellow on business news tonight even said so, "retail space couldn't be better."

He maintained a straight face also.

Here is more along the lines of what I am seeing:

 

Reno's retail vacancy rate at 18.52%; lots of space up for grabs 3:13 pm, Feb 15, 2013 | Written by Yvonne Beasley http://blogs.rgj.com/renorebirth/2013/02/15/renos-retail-vacancy-rate/ And then you have Office Depot and Office Max merging....very bullish for office space? Jobs?
Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:08 | 3261808 Conman
Conman's picture

And lets not forget Walmart's little sales issue.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:38 | 3261869 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Well said.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:10 | 3261816 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

I doan know where you live but Spokane, Wa. is looking alot like Detroit. Crime is going off the charts as well. Time to bail b/4 the last store closes.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:10 | 3261809 knukles
knukles's picture

I demand to likewise be paid a bazillion dollars of somebody elses money for ruminations such as these, for I have been making here since the inception, the birth of this tantalizing, august tome, deploring the future state of the world with no monetary reward in exchange.
Damn it, if this is truly the egalitarian society so said to be by the powers that be, I should be rewarded commensurately
Millions taken 24/7/365.

But oh fucking no.
Thus, the wheels are falling off.
We fall short of our (and Knukles') noble goals and aspirations.
Tragedy.
Pure tragedy.
Makes one want to pray to the great God Hermaphroditie

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:12 | 3261818 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

Are those tits real?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:25 | 3261842 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Why is it every time i see the word bazillion, the national debt clock flashes before my eyes??

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:19 | 3261963 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Personally, I'm fine with it until I see "dodecabazillion" or "ba-da-ba-da-bingazillion".  That would certainly qualify as Everett Dirksen's "real money" and be cause for alarm.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:13 | 3261823 Blond Viking
Blond Viking's picture

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness.

Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.”

 

- Charles Dickens: David Copperfield (1849) 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:19 | 3261830 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Does the market represent reality?  No.  Reality is represented by all indicators in the economy - UE, stocks, rates, (not gold), housing....leading indicators.  We have to use them as a basket to understand the entire market.  So even though stocks are up, it does not mean that we have fully recovered, because unemployment is still high.  We need all of them in sync and we don't have that yet.

This is why we need to do more and find the recovery.  We need to end the depression now for the betterment of tomorrow.  If we don't then tomorrow will be that much more dire.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:29 | 3261849 dolph9
dolph9's picture

There is no "tomorrow."  There never was.  That's what you cannot understand because you are part of a system that insists that there always will be.

It's no different than an empire wanting to expand and conquer the world, or a billionaire who wants to become a trillionaire, or a person who wants to live forever, etc. etc.

Limits are real!  Limits in fact, define every conception of reality there is.  Accept it.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:03 | 3261930 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You still standing by your "shoulda been a two trillion dollar shovel ready jobs stimulus" call?

That might have got you to retirement...the rest of us...not so much.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:19 | 3261962 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Just end your epiphony and kill yourself. Problem solved.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:22 | 3262126 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

"This is why we need to do more".....who is "we" ya interloper...?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 04:13 | 3262491 Brit_Abroad
Brit_Abroad's picture

I never know whether I should green or red arrow such entertaining statements.

A bit like MDB...questions, questions. What to do ?

KRUGMAN YOU DOUCHE !!!!!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:21 | 3261835 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Collapse is not "tail risk", collapse is reality.

It's like going through your whole life believing that death is a tail risk!  Of course it isn't, right?  It's a 100% guaranteed reality.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:11 | 3262408 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

You can still buy insurance against 100% certain collapse at the price of a tail risk.

Isn't it wonderful :-) 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:24 | 3261841 kito
kito's picture

all is well....just relax and join the crowd.....sony is popping with its new playstation 4, htc has a hot new phone out,  google has their new virtual reality glasses coming soon, stop fretting over silly things....

 

http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:50 | 3262448 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

If your gonna buy a pair of 1600 dollar glasses that can spout of a positive Yelp review on the restaurant your looking at across the street I say kudos, sir. Kudos. You are living the dream. I will, however need to upgrade my 42" Panasonic. It is like 5 years old now.....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:25 | 3261843 jballz
jballz's picture

Zero hedge,

Where stock market emos go to cut themselves and share their poetry of despair.

:(

Lol.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:43 | 3261881 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

WallMart Street, where Elmo's go to play pedophile with our children and grandchildren's future, with the help of Ben "Big Bird" Bernanke.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:04 | 3262321 jballz
jballz's picture

That is so sad. You should write a song.

I cried today too.

:(

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:45 | 3262441 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I'm sad. I will now buy a McMansion and place my dwindling paycheck into this most noble stock market where my wealth will find infinite gains because on a long enough timeline......

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:15 | 3261957 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Be sure to check back in After The Fall so we can emo you to death with the I Told You Sos.

LOL.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:08 | 3262328 jballz
jballz's picture

That is so sad. You should write a song about it.

:(

I cut myself today too. To see if I could still feel.

I told you so,
I told you we were doomed
I told you the green shoots would never bloom
All those dead presidents didn't bring us riches
I told you so
Zero hedge emo bitchez.

:(

Yes I am mocking you.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:18 | 3262466 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

jballz? Alls well swell yet uncertain
So tick off the seeing and hurtin'.
Little bitch little bitch let me in
Net fantasies, a pansy dancing close to those
Who understand but disband when the invisible hand lands
Is that your masters finger in your butt ya fucking puppet?
Muppets love you. Goldman Sachs of shit are legit in your eyes
You're fed what's said then led astray ashtray baby head
Smoke on to the plastic filter as you smolder in his mouth.
He sucked you. You let it happen....you happened.
And now you're nothing but saliva; drool.
Jballz, you fool.

-emoticon

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:23 | 3262469 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

jballz,

Creativity: 2/10

Reasoned rejoinder index:  0.01/10

Wall Street dipshit who will be jumping when his delusions evaporate index:  10/10

Sorry, you didn't pass, but make sure it is from 10 floors or higher.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:31 | 3261993 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

suck my ballz...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:43 | 3262185 gwar5
gwar5's picture

ZH because we get to look over the Bernank's shoulder as he destroys the rest world as we know it.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:36 | 3262366 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

go to hell-asshole

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:12 | 3262412 jballz
jballz's picture

 

:(

 

yes, the anger helps the pain.

you should write a song about it.

you could call it

"Im the Angry ZeroHedge Emo, Bitchez."

 

:(

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:25 | 3262471 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Timmy?  Jamie?  Blankfein?  Pisani?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:40 | 3262432 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

JBallz

Another dude coming to pick a fight amongst the stock market bears when he knows that the whole thing is a house of cards but needs anonymously reaffirm it to himself so that he may feel better not if but when it collapses.

Maybe your an insider and will know when the design reaches the end. Maybe you will be nimble. Maybe. The simple psychological fact that you are here to pick a fight shows how uncertain you are and thus we know your hand. I hope you're nimble. I am mainly cash as this unicorn sick of market has almost fully blown its load. The hedgies are taking profits. May go to 15 or 16, but the fundamentals are hogwash. Math is certain. The computer model will fail and we will join here with our poetry and Fuck You's.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 04:25 | 3262501 jballz
jballz's picture

 

I predict you spent Dec 31st 1999 in a concrete bunker with 7 years of tuna and a wind up shortwave radio.

 

It's not about bears, or bulls.

It's emoooooos.

 

:(

Bernanke. Waa.

I don't know I like the site but don't you all get tired of the fucking whining all the time? 

Bernank. Meh.

 

You knwo who is a fucking puppet?

Bernank. 

But you all sit and watch him like good little consumers, you play right into it.

like...

Emo bitchez.

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:26 | 3261848 ekm
ekm's picture

As I've been saying over and over and over and over:

 

GOV + FED + PRIMARY DEALERS HAVE BOUGHT UP EVERYTHING.

Nothing left to trade. Good bye markets....bye, bye...........

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:34 | 3261862 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

Are you shittin me? Nothing left to trade? I will trade 5 .22 shells for a blowjob in about 5 more weeks if this shit keeps going like it is.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:14 | 3261955 Boozer
Boozer's picture

Paid $42 for 500 lr22 last week!  Previous box $33...box before that in the 20's.

You get the idea.  Also one box per customer when available.  Forget 5.56/.223...

cannot be found anywhere in Ct.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:28 | 3261988 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

those who want to play will have to pay

bulkammo.com has 9mm and 5.56.  I had to pay over $500 for 1000 rounds of 9mm.

 

I figured better to have it and need it and not. Won't matter how much it costs if you need it

 

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:34 | 3261998 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

In VA, going rate is $1/rnd of 5.56. Six months ago it was .30/rnd. Best ROI I ever got.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:26 | 3261982 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

I'll give you four. Five next time, if you're good.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:30 | 3262146 S.N.A.F.U.
S.N.A.F.U.'s picture

I think trollin4sukrz's intended meaning was that trollin4sukrz would pay for a service, but then again, sometimes these things work out better than expected: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4Ycbm1OfaI#t=22m03s

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:34 | 3262363 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Damn  =blow jobs used to cost 30 or 40 22 shells. Ammo is truly the new gold

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:30 | 3261857 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

great article, but i'm not sure if i agree with his thoughts on gold though .. (from the link in the article)

"There is nothing intelligent to be said about gold. Nobody can tell you the right price for an ounce of gold. People will tell you it should go up or go down. To make any intelligent statements about investments you have to know what the right price is. You can’t do that with an asset like gold, which doesn’t produce any cash flow. So you can buy it out of superstition or ignore it because you are an atheist but you cannot buy it with an analytical foundation."

..if you lease your gold, does it not create a cash flow ?

..don't people argue about the prices of all commodities, stocks and bonds ?  that's the essence of price discovery.

..i'm not sure what he means by 'right price' (of gold)..  the price is determined by the buyer and the seller.. isn't that the 'right' price?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:58 | 3261917 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

+1, he's just another dickhead with an opinion, and he seems very dedicated to "cash flow," i.e. he is a well trained rent-seeker.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:31 | 3261858 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There is nothing wrong with pausing and pondering just how much money actually is being made in times like these as well. That's what falling gold prices really means...that money MEANS something. While sure...we can laugh at the debt people incur...but we have MARKETS in debt now! Forgot "the value of your gold" for a moment and ponder the significance of "nobody knows the value of their house right now." One could argue the entire planet is based off the price of what people claim "that house over there is worth." But what if they were not only wrong in 2008...but are even MORE wrong today? Japanese property values have declined in actual yen terms 90 PERCENT off the bubble high...20 YEARS AGO. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR9HuRUUTbs

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:49 | 3261873 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

I have a simple plan for the future. Move in to any abandoned mcmansion with a fireplace and burn all the available wood from the inside walls until the roof starts to sag and then move to the next. Easy to stay warm for a shitload of years while eating the pets. Learn to cook cat over an open flame.. what could be simpler? Remember to buy your salt from Costco.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:13 | 3261953 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I gave you an up arrow ... and I am very fond of cats. In actuality.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:34 | 3262427 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Don't forget to have a PISS AND SHIT IN THE CORNER party. 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:34 | 3261863 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

If I were Japan I'd be afraid niggas are conspiring.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:51 | 3261898 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

 Then there's geo-political risk – let's not go there.

 

Oh lets.  Why not?  Why just bemoan the broke plebe when its so much more fun to see what has the owners so distracted that their slaves are loosing the ability to house and feed themselves.

 

We know they don't care.  But its the why that matters.

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:55 | 3261908 ramacers
ramacers's picture

all the better for rivers of blood. goyya happen.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:56 | 3261909 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

What or who dominates trading in most markets?  Computers, and they don't give a gigahoot what the economy or government or anyone else is doing.  All they do is look at numbers and trends and algo them into a profit of some kind.  So, go ahead Obama and Benny, wreck the economy to death.  The algos will still grab the bucks from our pockets or Benny's.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:07 | 3261939 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

can i get a megahoot?

just enough to wet my beek.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:32 | 3262155 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I would gladly give you a t erahoot bu t it's a town in Indiana.



Wed, 02/20/2013 - 22:12 | 3261948 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

1 moar horse joke, yes?

 

A man in a movie theater notices what looks like a horse sitting next to him. "Are you a horse?" asked the man, surprised. "Yes." "What are you doing at the movies?" The horse replied, "Well, I liked the book."

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 07:12 | 3262567 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Did the horse answer to the name John Kerry?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 13:41 | 3263897 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

It was a mare. Said her name was Sarah Jessica something or other.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:01 | 3262064 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I live in S. Cali. I went to a Big 5 sporting goods 2 days ago,no stocks of .22 or 9mm at all,girl said they were on backorder.Half the rifle/shotgun stock gone. Today I go to my favorite gunshop and 2/3 of stock in pistol cases gone. Bare,zilch,nada.....

Nothing like a little panic buying....

Do you ever get the feeling that someone knows something that you don't?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:30 | 3262148 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I wen  t to WalMart and they were still out of everything except packs of ball bearings for Wrist-Rockets -- and they were low on those



Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:48 | 3262386 Bear
Bear's picture

Maybe David can do it again with the slingshot

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:17 | 3262112 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Bernanke sucker punches the Gold prices once again with another fuckin lie.  I hope this house of cards collapses and people hunt these Jewish criminals and destroy them for what they have done to this country’s!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:33 | 3262426 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

When discussing Israel we need to look at the root cause of the conflict - have a look at this video The Israeli General's Son – the video Israeli does NOT want you to see was made by the son of the general who lead the 73 Israeli offensive - and later turned against Israel's foreign policy

A real eye-opener, pass this around http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TOaxAckFCuQ

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:25 | 3262132 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Risk of Collapse?  t hat ship sank a long time  ago... they're just trying to find a good time to tell us so we don't get upset. 



Wed, 02/20/2013 - 23:31 | 3262152 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"Anyway, there is more to today's global economy and markets than meets the eye or rests in the headlines. Then there's geo-political risk – let's not go there."

You can't pick one over the other.

You can't compartmentalize the chaos.

You can't neglect the "political."

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:20 | 3262236 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

About the notion that restaurants are full and back to the good ole days is unfounded here in Philly. I know a chef at a mid range restaurant here and he said business sucks. He talks to a lot of other chefs in the downtown and burbs and they say the same thing. 

 

 Every makes the claim that restuarants are full so all is ok. The chef said that the crowd is a lot older. Makes sense. Retired folks are trying to enjoy their new found freedom now, so they eat out more and that covers the slack of the younger generations, but that will all change when more of there disposable income shrivels in the scorching heat of the coming inflation, which in turn will completely melt away their mutual funds, as well as their foolish bond safe havens. I am not saying boomers are foolish, but many boomers are using the tax benefits of bonds either by choice or by way of their retirement account money managers using these vehicles to limit risk and provide safety. Cracks have been appearing in the bond market for the past year and soon there will be blood. And, anybody exposed to this time bomb will have DEEP regret 1-2 years from now, if not sooner!

 

Remember. History is your ultimate guide. It is not a matter of if, . . .

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 00:29 | 3262278 loub215
loub215's picture

Disturbing... If these guys are good all the time, what does it say when they are freaked out... WTF

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 00:54 | 3262302 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E. Coyote sell off gets closer as SP500 daily & weekly uptrends simultaneously complete their protracted topping process.

It’s taken longer to roll over because daily AND weekly trends are terminating together.

So the resultant downtrend will have good momentum.

http://trader618.com

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 00:55 | 3262305 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

The public is getting the message. I went to Carter country today in Houston Texas and guns and ammo were virtually bare in the store. There was a sign saying only one box of ammo per customer per day of what little they had.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 07:49 | 3262582 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

When this fucker hits - and it WILL hit - America is going to be a bloodbath.

Most of the people who have these guns are red neck retards - and they will be manipulated by the likes of the Koch brothers and other bastards into shooting the guys who will actually be trying to fix this mess i.e. ripping down the elite fucks.

It is gonna be very entertaining to watch you fucking donkeys blowing each others brains out - because at the end of the day, this mess eminates from the very heart of darkness - America (the Beautiful)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:31 | 3262476 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

 

 

The US now spends 800 billion on defence (nationalism) and the rest of welfare (socialism)....with a small % on roads, law enforcement etc.

Judging the economy on what it actually does rather than what people think indicates that things are going to get ugly, because we have seen those two words before…

 

 

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 07:47 | 3262581 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

When you refer to socialism I hope you are including corporate welfare in there....  because that is where the biggest hunk of change is wasted.

Major corporations such as GE paying ZERO taxes - getting massive subsidies - trillions in bailouts - trillions in ZIRP money which they throw at high risk bets so bankers can get big bonuses if they work - bailed out if they go wrong.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 03:37 | 3262478 q99x2
q99x2's picture

May GHW Bush perish along with his treasonous dreams.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 07:53 | 3262585 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

France is sinking rapidly.  We can pretend that we can bail out Spain.... but no goddam way is anyone gonna believe the system can keep going when an economy the size of France blows out.

And there is NO WAY IN HELL France does not implode

Markets are starting to sense this and the deflationary spiral is starting - Ben has been throwing 85 billion out of his chopper for 6 months now and it ain't working.

Gold will drop along with everything until the dumb fucks with the real money realize GOLD IS THE ONLY SAFE ASSET on the planet. And they will pile into physical like there's no tomorow.

Because there is NO Tomorrow

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