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Caterpillar Sales Latest Cratering Confirm Global Growth Slowdown

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While CAT's CEO puts on a brave face, the results from his company are clearly indicative of the slowing global growth that everyone (apart from nominal equity indices) knows is occurring. For months, talking heads have used CAT's results as a proxy for growth and as they are rising confirming their inherent BTFD biases; however, this month's terrible results - with Asia/Pac down 12% on a 3-month rolling basis and North America down 11% - appears to confirm what has been evident in the lagging global GDP data for over a year - things are not picking up.

CAT Results...

 

Confirming the slowing Global GDP (that stocks seems so adamant to ignore)...

 

for now...

Charts: CAT and Bloomberg

 


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Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Those must be "unadjusted" numbers. Everything is fine :)

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

who needs to build things? all the wealth is in the stock market and Financial sectors, duh 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

who needs to build things?

DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT THAT POOL IN THE BACKYEAR JUST SUDDENLY POPPED OUT INTO EXISTANCE?!

okay...

as Obama would say....

YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT!

and he's right....

Cheap Mexican construction workers did that....

BUT THAT'S NOT THE POINT!!!

WHAT I'M TRYING TO SAY HERE IS....

is...

damn... those asian chicks on the left side of the page are back on Zerohedge.... man... do they have bonkers or what....

gona download some asian porn....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:36 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I had 3 small town cops in my neighborhood put in 60K pools this past year-so do I get to use 'em since i paid for 'em?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

only if you respect the dresscode...

http://www.dees-fancydress.co.uk/catalog/images/5094M_a.jpg

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

You didn't pay for them, all the busts that came in light did. When your in court, your not going to say that 50K and 2 kilos are missing, you STFU, it's just a transaction tax. Seen it first hand, half of america's police force would be in jail if you just did basic means testing of assets to income. Extra credit - check the whole family....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hey DOW 14K......not bad huh?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

That reads like an IM from Ben to Timmay.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:05 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Just print more

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's all good. Soon Cat will be making products to help us haul our fiat around. That should help their earnings.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Good one Doc!

Time to invest in DRPower!!!

http://www.drpower.com/Content.aspx/Haulers-Powerwagons?N=0Zvh

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

No one cares about the real economy, the stock markets is the most important to ramp atm.

Dow 36K

Rgds,

Greenspam

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Ness.
Ness.'s picture

9:15 (CDT) Fed begins buying treasuries under outright POMO program, ah buying stawk futures.  Look at a fucking ES chart at 9:15.

 

Sickening - it's really too bad it has come to this.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This is the point I've been hammering over and over again (b/c I believe it); it's not just that the central planners are selling the bullshit memo again that "equity markets correlate with the real condition of the real economy," but consider that Bernanke is a year away from leaving his post, and that's he's pumped the "Virtuous Circle" macroeconomic theory more than even Greenspan did when he was Fed Head.

The difference now is that the real economy has known 3 condition under Bernanke's helm since the "financial crisis that noone could've seen coming":  1)  Dropping; 2) Stabilizing; 3) Marginally improving.

I'm probably just a pessimist, but now that the real economy is, at best, stagnant, and more likely, contracting in real terms again (i.e. decontruct the official growth figures, strip out the impact of inflation as a metric that allows growth to be reported - meaning that real growth reported is actually nominal), Bernanke risks a completely tortured legacy if equity markets fall, especially before he scoots out the door, as pumping equity markets higher in nominal terms with massive amounts of leveraged debt has been his one sole "accomplishment" (the funny thing about "accomplishments" like these is that they tend to be viewed as wealth-destroying vortexes & failures over a longer time frame) in 4 years of crisis management post 2008.

The last thing Bernanke wants is to be publicly ridiculed by the likes of the brain dead Steve Kroft for his incredibly idiotic "Virtuous Circle" macroeconomic theory.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:39 | Link to Comment sschu
sschu's picture

The last thing Bernanke wants is to be publicly ridiculed by the likes of the brain dead Steve Kroft for his incredibly idiotic "Virtuous Circle" macroeconomic theory.

Herein lies a fundamental issue, these guys are so wedded to a mindset that they can never admit they were wrong.  Reducing rates and priming the pump has always worked, it will work now ... even 4+ years after the crash and mountains of evidence to the contrary.  

They misdiagnosed the problem from the beginning, liquidity vs insolvency, a LOT of smart people told them so, but they "stayed the course".  So here we are, stuck in a stagnant cycle with an addition $5 trillion in government debt and trillions more owed somewhere that is impossible to track.    

WTI approaching $100, gasoline the highest it has ever been on this date, nearly 50 million on food stamps, 9 million on SSDI (Zuck says 11 million) and millions out of work with zero hope.  A trillion $$ in un-dischargeable higher education debt with over 10% delinquency and some of our largest states bankrupt except for the paperwork. (Illinois, Cali, NY)

And we reelect the authors of this fiasco.

God has removed his protective umbrella over the US, he did so in 2001, we are on our own now.  :-(

sschu


Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Well stated TIS; but that son of a bitch's legacy is going to get handed to him like a floppy wet piece of meat.

He has performed his task well and no doubt pleased his masters.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 things are not picking up.

 

Oh...things are picking up alright.  Like a snowboard at the crest of one of A-basin's double-black-diamonds.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Law97
Law97's picture

A-basin's double diamonds are THE best skiing anywhere.  Thank you for mentally taking me away from the collapsing world economic system if for just a few moments.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment desoto
desoto's picture

Working in the largest packaging company in North America I can confirm the slowdown.  Our orders have softened considerably in the last two weeks with machine downtime (economic downtime) now being scheduled.  The big reset is coming soon!!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Why should we believe you when we have government (seasonally adjusted) data that says its all good and getting better everyday? admittedly my business is sucking wind but I'm sure I'm also the exception to this rising tide, and am only failing due to my constant thirst for money. I'm currently studying new business approaches that are centered on the workplace becoming simply a place for "employees" to come and have coffee and donuts. Oh, and we are also going to learn to speak French!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

May I suggest Chinese instead,or Russian.

My businesses were also sucking wind from before Xmas to early Feb.

We normally get a fortnight (two weeks to American speakers)hangover period then.

This year it was six weeks,It gone crazy since then, hope yours improves also.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Spoke to my ex-business partner last night and he told me the phone stopped ringing at Christmas, as it always does, and hasn't rung since. He asked to give him a call every day to make him feel better.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You know what your problems are?  Not one of you uses Facebook and Twitter enough.  I mean, you can start your own social network and have "Friends" "like" your posts (and stuff) and then generate billions from it.  Everyone is doing it.  You are just missing the boat on these completely necessary tools of the new economy.  Plus you can then create an app for that...whatever that is.  I think there is now an app to tell you how much of a complete loser you are...and it comes directly to your smart phone!  Who wouldn't want that?!?!

 

Oh...and free money.  Can't forget the free money.  You will need free money too.

 

Oh and debt.  I almost forgot the massive amounts of debt you'll need as well.

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Desoto +1

But i have to tell you that we have "Decoupled" from reality long long time ago... We are only waiting for the zombies to eat one another.

R.I.P Reality.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Maybe their SHOE DIVISION will outperform and make up for the rest?

 http://www.safestchina.com/products_image/cat-shoes-129382.jpg

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment 3.7.77
3.7.77's picture

And found at your local ChinaMart.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

AND FOR JUST A BUCK MORE THEY'LL PRINT "MADE IN AMERICA" ON THE TIP!!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:13 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke has pledged to purchase each and every unit of Caterpillar production from hence forward with fiatkis.

"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money."

-Alexis de Tocqueville

 

(Ritholtz's QOTD, his first positive contribution to society in about 5 years.)

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and with the public's grandchildren's money

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Screw their money. It's the publics grand children's resources that have pulled forward, leaving them what? Doodly Squat, as Grandma at the country store in Josey Wales might profess.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:08 | Link to Comment chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

As far as China is concerned, CAT's share in the market has been dropping steadily since 2005.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

CATs are like AKs-they run forever with basic maintenance

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Cummins warned this morning...earnings to be 7 cents light

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Lafarge took a series of charges in 2012, due to write-downs on its Greek and Western European and several business restructurings. These more than offset the one-off gains it achieved from the sale of businesses. In fact, if it were not for the € 466 million (US$ 620 million) gain from the sale of its gypsum businesses last year, the company would have made a net loss.

http://www.khl.com/khlgroup-backup/magazines-old/construction-europe/det...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Do Nobel laureates still believe in infinite growth of any one species in a finite and complex closed system?  Good luck with that.  As the available energy decreases, so will the real eCONomy.  Same as it ever was, now that we have a global eCONomy it is time to start thinking like the survivors of Easter Island and get to work on that "raft" to take a lucky few to Mars...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:41 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Screw Mars. Alaska ought to be warm enough soon, and fish and fur stocks will recover within years of a slowdown in their unsustainable catch business model.

And Alaska is upwind from the Yellowstone caldera should it go off anytime in the coming millennia so the grand grand grands won't suffer direct effects.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:10 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

CAT will do well cleaning up the aftermath after TSHTF.  It's a post revolution play.   

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

can't the govt just pay union operators $50/hr to dig a hole and then fill it back in-that will increase demand for $400k CAT excavators. kind of like subsidizing US farmers so they can afford $400K John Deere combines.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Already do.Hence $16t in debt.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

They might already be doing that.   Cat 450E ready projects.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

3D printing must be eating into their sales

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:13 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

i just printed a 325 excavator to start tearing down abandoned houses

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

An excavator is the absolutely best toy ever. I bought a Bobcat 334 to do work around my house and it is a blast. Unfortunately I spend a lot of time repairs sprinkler lines I accidently rip out but still...its a hoot!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

I rented a mini excavator to replace the culvert under my driveway.   It was a lot of fun to operate.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

This can't be true because the government propaganda machine told me otherwise.  Bernanke wouldn't lie to us!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:13 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Gold Rush Guys are buying used equipment

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:15 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

CAT...a Cramer fucking favorite.  Go fucking figure.

 

It should fucking explode to the upside soon, because everyone will need heavy fucking equipment to fucking carry all that devalued fucking fiat to the store to buy a fucking loaf of horse shit laced Monsanto bread.

 

Fuck you Bernanke, fucking Ivytard fuck.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

fuckhead Cramer likes Toll Bros also but their #s sucked donkey today too.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

CAT, too bad being stuck in the real economy.  Look at LinkedIn or Amazon, no limits there, and no need for earnings either.  Both up 1%-2% again, on top of 30%+ gains in the last three months.  Anyone short these and long gold must really be stupid (said while looking in the mirror ...)

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Try CRM.  Lost my ass in a long dated put option on that POS.  Many thanks to the yen/usd though for making up the difference.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

lmao. CRM is the poster child for the New Even More Winning-ier Winners of the Newer World v2.0

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

Said it before and I'll say it again:

"Man who buy drowned CAT- must pay for wet pussy"

That is well known in China.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Checking MSM.... NOT a peep about this so far.... 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment thecoloredsky
Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Wile E. Coyote sell off is getting closer as SP500 daily & weekly uptrends simultaneously complete a protracted topping process.

It’s taking longer to roll over because daily AND weekly trends are terminating together.

Therefore the resultant downtrend should have good momentum.

http://trader618.com

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:17 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

This guy is ALWAYS mr Positive.....so take this as really bad news......latin America will soon follow the slowdown..they are 1 year behind the game down here....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

at least it's 'better then expected'....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:24 | Link to Comment conspicio
conspicio's picture

Mike Dewalt swears it is a slowdown in mining activity, but really it is a slowdown in decision making by the customer. Mining customers are negotiating contracts and with their uncertainty, the contracts aren't shaking to signature as fast as they normally would. Meanwhile, mining companies are accruing debt and shedding labor while many customers look into the crystal ball and see...nada. Then we have the vultures circling and looking for M&A activity, all the while praying at the altar to the central bank that their targets really do go to hell so they can scoop them up with the investment bank of their choice. Mining M&A upticking as organic growth is soft on pricing.

 

And Caterpillar, being dumb enough to stay in Illinois after all that befalls you makes you a fucking joke. Terex all the way, bitchez.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

CAT has IL by the balls-they pay almost nothing to the Stare of IL-Gov Bald Irishman worked out some back room deals. although when the older plant leases expire they will probably shutter them. the only people getting hammered by IL taxes are the employees

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Talk to me, Otto ... I grew up in Peoria.  Peoria will be in deep shit indeed if CAT shutters anything.  And to think they have been building, for years, a CAT museum on the waterfront - even while the waterfront renovation businesses opened in 2000's are closing and business dries up again.  Peoria has always only had 3 wheels on the road even in the best of times ... it is typical mid-sized Midwest city in terminal decline since the 1970's ... I shudder to think what would become of her if CAT takes a real dive ...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

"Terex all the way"

Loaded a truck with my ranching buddy's Terex last week.  Nice machine but will never outlast a Cat with the running gear it has. 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Bernanke can print and the banks can use the cash to buy Cat machines which they can later sell back to the US govt and 50% profit. 

Go long CAT!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

What's Dr. Copper have to say about this... oh wait

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:22 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

Jan 29 BMO capital upgrades CAT to "outperform"!

what would we do without these rating agencies?

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

 

Why not if they were long and wanted out of CAT at a  high price?  Isn’t that what Dodd/Franks stand for…..fraud a deception allowed by the Wall Street gangsters?   

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

While Iknow that the vast bulk of the bailout money DID NOT go into infrastructure, but man! Most of the real construction I see is roads and bridges...everywhere. Massive projects. Huge elevated interchanges, bridges and the like.I mention this only to suggest that without these projects how bad would construction equipment sales and employment be. While I'm glad that they are at least spending our stolen money on something other than empty suits, I can't help but think about how much of our economy is still artificial.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

govt sponsored construction costs would be dramatically lower if it weren't for Davis Bacon wage fixing-good luck getting that one repealed by the Dems and their union building trades buddies. a lot of that infrastructure $ went to swing states to keep the unemployment #s down.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:27 | Link to Comment MoneyThangs
MoneyThangs's picture

Such a brutal sell off today,  havent freaked out this much over the stock market since the end of 2008

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I heard that Ben and Barry are taking delivery of 1000 Back Hoes.

 

They'll be parked on the front lawn of the white house.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

But Cramer told me 2 weeks ago that CAT has set the bar so LOW, it has no where to go but UP.#btfd

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

Postal Service to launch clothing line in 2014

Chanel. Dior. Armani. Vera Wang. U.S. Postal Service?

The cash-strapped Postal Service announced Tuesday that it has inked a licensing deal with an Ohio-based clothing company to produce a line of apparel dubbed “Rain Heat & Snow.” The attire aims to reach well beyond T-shirts and baseball caps to include “wearable electronics”—like jackets with iPod controls built into the sleeve, USPS spokesman Roy Betts explained to Yahoo News.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/postal-launch-clothing-line-2014-223202293--politics.html

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:45 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they should start producing low-cost high-cap mags-they would make a fortune

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:35 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

So much for that 'Global Growth Strategy'.  The CEO's are Genuiuses in a boom.. not so much now.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I still have no idea why shareholders think CEOs should be paid so much.....oh wait, the public in the stock market are fucking morons, that's right.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment earleflorida
Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Europe is doing just fine...another data point confirming that there is money in knocking down foreclosed buildings...Thanks CAT!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Things will improve for Cat as soon as the free cheese stops shipping into the inner city vote gardens. 

Bullish on KillDozers.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Good - fuck Caterpillar

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Wow! Super bullish news for nominal stock prices. S&P 2000 here we come!! Woot, woot. 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:47 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Craterpillar

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