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FOMC Minutes: Hawkish Rumblings Getting Louder

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear that even though the relative dovishness of the FOMC has increased, a realization that the party has to stop sometime is dawning on the PhDs - though for now, the printing will continue until morale improves...

  • SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID EASING MAY PROMPT EXCESSIVE RISK
  • MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
  • SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO VARY PACE OF QE
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
  • SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS
  • A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS SAID TAPERING QE MAY BECOME NECESSARY

Pre-FOMC: ES 1521.00, 10Y 2.01%, EUR 1.3337, Gold $1580, WTI $94.18

Some of the key sections:

However, a few participants expressed concerns that the current highly accommodative stance of monetary policy posed upside risks to inflation in the medium or longer term.

On the death of Okun's Law:

A number of participants thought that the growth of potential output had been reduced in recent years, possibly in part because restrictive financial conditions and weak economic activity in the aftermath of the financial crisis had reduced investment, business formation, and the pace of adoption of new technologies. Many of these participants worried that, should the economy continue to operate below potential for too long, reduced investment and underutilization of labor could further undermine the growth of potential output over time. A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap.

But punchline #1:

Several participants emphasized that the Committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolved. For example, one participant argued that purchases should vary incrementally from meeting to meeting in response to incoming information about the economy. A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial  improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred. Several others argued that the potential costs of reducing or ending asset purchases too soon were also significant, or that asset purchases should continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook had occurred. A few  participants noted examples of past instances in which policymakers had prematurely removed accommodation, with adverse effects on economic growth, employment, and price stability; they also stressed the importance of communicating the Committee’s commitment to maintaining a highly accommodative stance of policy as long as warranted by economic conditions. providing monetary accommodation by holding securities for a longer period than envisioned in the Committee’s exit principles, either as a supplement to, or a replacement for, asset purchases.

#2:

A few participants commented that the Committee’s accommodative policies were intended in part to promote a more balanced approach to risk-taking, but several others expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk-taking and adverse consequences for financial stability. Some participants mentioned the potential for a sharp increase in longer-term interest rates to adversely affect financial stability and indicated their interest in further work on this topic.

And #3:

Many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.

Another headfake from a Fed which will never, ever stop monetizing, or just more schizophrenia from Bernanke and Co? Why both of course.

And, in tangential news, this is what @Not_Jim_Cramer suspected the real minutes wordcloud looked like...

Full minutes:

 

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Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:03 | 3260526 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

FUCK THE FED!

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260541 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Silver falling towards a 27 handle as we speak.
They're so predictable.
Time to stack some more!

Paging Barf Chillstoned.
Paging Barf Chillstoned.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260557 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

 

 

  • *MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
  • LOL.  $1Trillion this year in easing and that's the headline?

    LMFAO.  Bunch of lies.

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:09 | 3260567 AL_SWEARENGEN
    AL_SWEARENGEN's picture

    Watch what the cocksuckerz do, never what they say.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:12 | 3260590 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    They are buying gold.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:14 | 3260613 nope-1004
    nope-1004's picture

    So am I.  I know where this is going, and it's not back to 4% unemployment.

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:31 | 3260642 TruthInSunshine
    TruthInSunshine's picture

    These "grumblings" will grow larger in subsequent FOMC meetings, and are actually a way to try and "talk" what are now highly exuberant (some dare call them irrational) markets down from the suicide perch that Bernanke pushed them up to.

    Bernanke Will Never Voluntarily Stop Printing. His "Virtuous Circle" Will Implode The Second He Does (It Will Implode Either Way, Just Sooner If He Stops Printing.)

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:41 | 3260718 The Thunder Child
    The Thunder Child's picture

    FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'

    Dafuq planet are these guys on, do they think we all smoke can?

    *Edit*

    LMAO just saw Lance Armstong in the wordcloud

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:11 | 3261106 TonyCoitus
    TonyCoitus's picture

    I gotta say it..........

     

    BULLISH!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:35 | 3261398 zaphod
    zaphod's picture

    So a minority of the FED said they were worried about printing >$80B per month, and maybe sometime we should only print a bit less such as $60B per month.

    If this is truly considered hackish today, then we're getting closer to the end of fiat.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:15 | 3260615 AllThatGlitters
    AllThatGlitters's picture

    Gold dipped, then reversed higher.  Sell the rumor, Buy the news?

    Live Spot: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:45 | 3260761 agent default
    agent default's picture

    That would be the Fed buying Germany's 300 tons.  Because all the gold is there right? RIGHT??? 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:15 | 3260618 Pladizow
    Pladizow's picture

    Comex paper capitalizing on this "Fed Speak."

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:17 | 3260628 camaro68ss
    camaro68ss's picture

    Hahaha, That world Cloud is F*** Sweet!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:23 | 3260663 venturen
    venturen's picture

    What no Goldman in the Word Cloud. What is with that? It is the company that can't be named...ala Harry Potter villian? 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:25 | 3260672 TruthInSunshine
    TruthInSunshine's picture

    Rumor has it that the FOMC members enjoyed a lunch courtesy of Carl's Jr. during their meeting.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:33 | 3260697 pods
    pods's picture

    I was looking for Astroglide.

    I think that is what Chevy Chase put on the bottom of his sled in Christmas Vacation.

    pods

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:14 | 3260612 Nothing To See Here
    Nothing To See Here's picture

    Obama will never let the QE stop. Bernanke will be terminated if need be. All rumors that the easing can be slowed down are merely MOPE.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:17 | 3260879 Imminent Crucible
    Imminent Crucible's picture

    This is all theater for the halfwits and tradebots.  Bernankes may come and go, but the easing must continue. Keep in mind these are the "doctored" minutes. What was really said at the FOMC meeting will not be available until five years from now.

    The Fed has no choice. Both markets and GDP are utterly addicted to continued monetization so that the Treasury can keep mailing out checks and so Times Square doesn't turn into Syntagma Square. The Fed knows that the inflation mentality is taking root in the populace and bond yields are rising, so they're attempting to jawbone yields back down without actually doing anything that would rein in the money supply. The Treasury complex is rising across all maturities:

    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates...

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:19 | 3260632 Stoploss
    Stoploss's picture

    the printing will continue until morale improves...

     

    Priceless...

     

    AYE..

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:27 | 3261173 augustusgloop
    augustusgloop's picture

    When morale improves, find another metric. tie QE to literacy rates in inner city neighborhoods, fleet avg. MPGs 

     

    "we are not the currency debasers you're looking for"

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:10 | 3260580 strannick
    strannick's picture

    Paging Bart Shill-ton

    How is the silver investigation coming?

    Paging Bart Shill-ton

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:16 | 3260626 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Are he and Assange from the same family cult?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:24 | 3260666 Xibalba
    Xibalba's picture

    He don't wanna get suicided.  So shill keep mouth sut. 

     

    #fedspeak

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:09 | 3260570 hankwil74
    hankwil74's picture

    You can add it to the silver you stacked at $36, $34, $32, $30, and $28... keep BTFDs, right?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:12 | 3260588 strannick
    strannick's picture

    Or you can just go ahead and keep stacking your FedRes notes. Should be able to start stacking bails of it soon, with 1 trillion a year coming hot of the presses. 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:14 | 3260609 hankwil74
    hankwil74's picture

    Been stacking SPY since 2009, and I've been BTFDs... Can't fight the Fed

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:23 | 3260654 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    Too bad you didn't buy PMs since 2009, would have protected you better against inflation.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:32 | 3260693 slightlyskeptical
    slightlyskeptical's picture

    I hope this is sarcasm and I hope the people that starred you get it.

    If not...well don't know what to say other than pull your head out of the dillusion.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:08 | 3260842 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    Why would it be sarcasm?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:36 | 3260708 hankwil74
    hankwil74's picture

    I'll take my long CMG longs from $120, tyvm

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:20 | 3260897 Imminent Crucible
    Imminent Crucible's picture

    Can't fight Gideon Gono!  Oh, wait......

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:32 | 3260690 Bastiat
    Bastiat's picture

    Kiss the godfather's ring.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:21 | 3260659 donsluck
    donsluck's picture

    Numbers don't lie. +1

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:13 | 3260600 Central Wanker
    Central Wanker's picture

    The volume is extremely heavy.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:19 | 3260641 Beam Me Up Scotty
    Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

    The Fed is going to need a rather large tampon to soak up all that excess liquidity.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:06 | 3260543 DJ Happy Ending
    DJ Happy Ending's picture

    The Fed could care less. They have been fucking you for generations.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:40 | 3260988 Shizzmoney
    Shizzmoney's picture

    Bernanke reminds me of when Teddy KGB clucks like a chicken and tells Mike McD "I stick it in you"

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:05 | 3260528 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Hawkish rumblings?  Yeah fucking right.  They just doubled QE and it is the tenth round of QE.  If it was true than they would do more than talk.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260549 FL_Conservative
    FL_Conservative's picture

    Exactly.  The toothpaste is out of the fucking tube already.  Now what are you going to do Bennie Boy?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:10 | 3260576 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Any good con man knows - Say one thing, and do another.

    The Fed is the ultimate con; buying toxic debt that the banks that govern the Fed's board can't own less they go bankrupt. 

    The Fed at this point is the most bankrupt bank in the history of banks.  Period.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:13 | 3260604 strannick
    strannick's picture

    QE: Talk it down, print it up

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260553 NeedleDickTheBu...
    NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

    Hawkish rumblings = Fed securities purchases reduced to $84.999 MM per month.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:11 | 3260584 mind_imminst
    mind_imminst's picture

    They cannot tighten (willingly). Everyone who reads Zerohedge should be on to the game by now. Talk is cheap, and the CBs will use "talk" as much as they can to manipulate the markets and resort to printing/loosening aka "screwing the common man" only when the markets do not move in the way they woud like (nominal stock prices, hitting inflation targets, aka "screwing the common man").

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:39 | 3260726 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Tightening would mean they put some of that crap toxic MBS back on the market and put USTs back on the market when there is no demand for them.  Rates would rise and for every 1% that rates rise the bond price would drop about 14%.  This would wreck havoc on the bond markets and the US Treasury.

    Also, while this happened where would the cash flow?  To fiat?  People would want to hold cash when the money supply has doubled worldwide?  Rates would need to go above 10% to hold off inflation, and that would be a financial clusterfuck. 

    Would cash go to equity?  When earnings are dismal and people are burnt out on stocks?

    Would they go to commodities, where inflation and supply/demand is still squeezing them?

    This is why the Fed will do their damnedest to keep rates low.  How long they will is the trillion dollar question.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:22 | 3260904 Imminent Crucible
    Imminent Crucible's picture

    Buy gold and silver until you see this headline:

    "Fed to JPM: Time to repo Bear Stearns, Lehman assets"

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:53 | 3261261 Karl von Bahnhof
    Karl von Bahnhof's picture

    Ergo logically when FED start to tighten gold should go up because of decreasing dollar demand.
    Another proof that markets are biased (controlled)

    Market price of monetary metal is just irrelevant now.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:32 | 3261391 sschu
    sschu's picture

    They will not raise rates as to do so would "hurt the (robust) economic recovery".  :-(

    So they have political cover for a while at least.  But nothing is going to get better soon, Bennie has already seen to that.  Jobs, GDP, etc are stuck until the market clears all the malinvetsment.  

    Four more years of this nonsense, we can write the same posts in 2016 as now.

    sschu 

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:05 | 3260536 Jason T
    Jason T's picture

    Fuck Martin Armstrong is the man!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:18 | 3260638 Bastiat
    Bastiat's picture

    Im afraid they broke Martin in prison and let him out to shill.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:46 | 3260763 Mrmojorisin515
    Mrmojorisin515's picture

    i've thought that myself sometimes.  I like his cycles theory, but sometimes the dude is just hard to read and he claims hyperinflation will never occur

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:26 | 3260926 Imminent Crucible
    Imminent Crucible's picture

    I hope he's right. Hyperinflation produces complete devastation in a society. On the other hand, if the dollar goes down 10% to 15% per year like it did in the 1970's, gold and silver will do at least as well as they did back then. Might even bring the Hunt brothers out of retirement.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:05 | 3260538 nobusiness
    nobusiness's picture

    tighter money will now be trumpeted as good news for the economy

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260562 donsluck
    donsluck's picture

    Just a PM take-down. Gold and silver crashed, but the Dow is relatively flat. With CBs buying gold, they need a lower price. If the stock markets follow the PMs, QE reassurances will follow.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:18 | 3260639 Karlus
    Karlus's picture

    The big question is for those who have kept powder dry, where is the entry point?

    I know max pain is just south of 1600....does that mean that we get a blip up Thurs/Fri before Monday expiry?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:25 | 3260668 donsluck
    donsluck's picture

    I would expect a pop to 1650 in a couple of weeks. Wait for the Dow follow-thru before buying.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:42 | 3261410 Imminent Crucible
    Imminent Crucible's picture

    Entry point?

    Scroll down to the weekly chart view: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$GOLD

    Gold has closed above $1550 in every trading session since the middle of 2011. Anywhere between today and $1560 is a bargain.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:06 | 3260542 RationalPrepper
    RationalPrepper's picture

    May I remind everyone that they were talking exist strategy in February 2010.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500395_162-6193834.html

    Talk of raising rates in a matter of months...yeah...right.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:06 | 3260544 kengland
    kengland's picture

    Now go back and looks the PM performance over the last month. Any connection?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:15 | 3260622 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    It is a giant short short position amongst the historically stupid money:

    http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/02/got-gold-report-courtesy-release-of-our-entire-February-18-report-.html

    My guess is this is some historically stupid pair trade involving gold and the S&P based on the "recovery".

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260547 nobusiness
    nobusiness's picture

    Shocker, someone just bought 1.8 million shares of SPY to save the market.

     

    i wonder who that was.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260548 Racer
    Racer's picture

    Oh so that is why gold has been falling... someone leaked the information to their pals

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:10 | 3260574 donsluck
    donsluck's picture

    We little guys cannot front-run. We can only react. This is a buying opportunity.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:17 | 3260637 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    Soros was informed as well.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:19 | 3260648 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    And the "pals" didn't even get the trade right.  They should have been buying gold...as they will soon discover.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260551 DeadFred
    DeadFred's picture

    Trying to glean information from a press release that tries to make you think what they want to to think... Try the triple reverse whamo method. Or better yet be an insider and have Ben tell you what's up over lunch some day.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260552 lemonobrien
    lemonobrien's picture

    if they're so brave, why don't they stop? Let me the first to inform you niggas, "we know you're fucked."

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:07 | 3260555 SDRII
    SDRII's picture

    Trading halt: Market awaits the Moscow Times Steve Liesman insights on the minutes. breaking: it is all bullish

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260556 Pooper Popper
    Pooper Popper's picture

    Banker season opening soon...

    There will be no limits!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260558 Bunga Bunga
    Bunga Bunga's picture

    1 is a number too.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260559 Piranhanoia
    Piranhanoia's picture

    Where can I get this "beard oil" referred to in the vernacular?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260560 Shell Game
    Shell Game's picture

    LOL.  If you pull out your microscope you can just read 'risk', too funny..

    'Fuck you- Pay me!', 'Boehner will cry',  LMAO!  thx NJC

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260561 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    Too freaking funny on the fake word cloud. Made my day. :)

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:25 | 3260669 Piranhanoia
    Piranhanoia's picture

    Can we be sure it is faked?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:08 | 3260563 Duffminster
    Duffminster's picture

    Every 1% increase in interest rates creates an extra $150 Billion + in the US Federal Debt interest payment, which as we reach anything over 5% brings the US that much closer to default.  This is all jaw boning.   QE can never be ended. 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:37 | 3260709 eclectic syncretist
    eclectic syncretist's picture

    Fucking Odoriferous Miscreant Cocksuckers

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:37 | 3260712 slightlyskeptical
    slightlyskeptical's picture

    But if the fed owns them all and gives their profit to the treasury what does it really matter? Add in the profits off the MBS over time and Uncle Sam is doing ok.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:54 | 3260791 knukles
    knukles's picture

    Bingo!
    Dead argument....
    Fed collects coupon, remits same to Treasury.
    Don't even need a shred of currency .... all electronic.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:28 | 3260935 viahj
    viahj's picture

    wouldn't matter at all as long as you don't plan to use USDs in trade.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:09 | 3260565 lolmao500
    lolmao500's picture
    • *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
    • *SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS

    Are they on LSD or what?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:11 | 3260587 donsluck
    donsluck's picture

    If they were on acid, they would have given up the farce and noticed how soft trees are.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:13 | 3260591 Banksters
    Banksters's picture

    Gee, I thought they said that employment falling below 7.2 percent was their un qe standard -who cares how many people are falling off the rolls.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:13 | 3260601 dick cheneys ghost
    dick cheneys ghost's picture

    tainted horse meat

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:40 | 3260702 McMolotov
    McMolotov's picture

    At Woodstock, it was specifically the brown horse meat that caused freakouts.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:16 | 3260624 oddjob
    oddjob's picture

    Double squares for all.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:12 | 3260569 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    I guess you can now sell stocks and buy gold as opposed to just buying gold.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:10 | 3260577 Jacque Itch
    Jacque Itch's picture

    "Moderate Growth Path"

    GDP flat last quarter; lucky to hit 1% growth in Q1.  I'm sooo secure with these a** clowns in charge.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:10 | 3260578 Caracalla
    Caracalla's picture

    Markets almost GREEN, lol

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:11 | 3260585 Confundido
    Confundido's picture

    One gets the feeling the Fed is clueless...

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:38 | 3260722 slightlyskeptical
    slightlyskeptical's picture

    They are not clueless. Their intrests are just different then the rest of ours.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:12 | 3260593 FiatFapper
    FiatFapper's picture

    Gold back @ year open

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:51 | 3260781 Panafrican Funk...
    Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

    Stocks to follow suit.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:14 | 3260608 Charles Nelson ...
    Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

    fuck these pricks...

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:15 | 3260617 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    Even their minutes are 100% market manipulation.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:34 | 3260700 optimator
    optimator's picture

    I'm sure they sometimes say, "Off the record............"

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:16 | 3260623 FROZENOJFUTURES
    FROZENOJFUTURES's picture

    I TOLD YOU ABOUT GOLD, DOG! I WARNED YOU!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:16 | 3260629 fuu
    fuu's picture

    Best word cloud ever.

    1569.80 and 28.54 is all you got? I expected better from men of your education.

    Maybe it's just lunch break.

    Well Orly just a few weeks early.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:17 | 3260635 SillySalesmanQu...
    SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

    Hmmm. news I've read the last week...housing starts down; ship, rail, truck traffic and freight shipping down; manufacturing down; GDP down; sales and earnings down; Wal-Mart down; FOXCONN, Apple, CAT down new car registrations in Europe down; China down, Europe down....must be....BULLISH, MUST BUY MOAR.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:19 | 3260645 nobusiness
    nobusiness's picture

    Translation - All the FOMC members have completed the refinancings on their primary home and vacation property.  rates can now rise.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:20 | 3260653 tecno242
    tecno242's picture

    today is an example of why the FED is hosed.

    Bond prices falling, stocks falling, commodities falling... nowhere to put your money except the mattress if they ever attempt to pull back on QE or reduce the size of their balance sheet

    if they try to pull out... velocity of money will plummet

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:39 | 3260724 eclectic syncretist
    eclectic syncretist's picture

    Bernie in wonderland has to print faster and faster just to stay in place.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:42 | 3260744 slightlyskeptical
    slightlyskeptical's picture

    Exactly. There is no where to run. Cash is actually king because it will lose less value than everything else.

     

    Did make a nice round trip on SSO puts today.  If no closing rally, I will reup at the close.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:31 | 3260655 CaptainSpaulding
    CaptainSpaulding's picture

    Whilst reading the cloud, I could of sworn i heard Yoko Ono's voice in my head saying,  "if, You become naked"

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:21 | 3260656 Bastiat
    Bastiat's picture

    Yeah, Bennie, stop monetizing the debt and see how that goes.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:25 | 3260670 Confundido
    Confundido's picture

    If they don't buy the Tsys...who will? 

    By the way, can we say that gold is a Giffen good?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:26 | 3260673 Carl LaFong
    Carl LaFong's picture

    Same old, same old. If somebody really believes they're going to stop QE anytime in the next couple of years, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you....If they stop QE, the stock market would crash and the increase in interest payments would cause the country would explode in about 5 minutes. Does anybody really believe they can or will stop QE before they are forced to do so by either bond vigilanties or by the fact that nobody will buy any more bonds? And let's not forget, there's a currency war going on and that means a race to the bottom whether they like or not...because the alternative is a stronger USD and zero exports....Next move - watch your back because your retirement accounts will be forced to buy US debt --- for your own protection, of course.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:36 | 3260706 edifice
    edifice's picture

    We have exports (besides raw materials)?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:40 | 3260729 medium giraffe
    medium giraffe's picture

    US exports GMOs, but I think that might change soon.

    Oh dear Monsanto, not looking good! :

    http://worldtruth.tv/5-million-farmers-sue-monsanto-for-7-7-billion/

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:49 | 3260775 medium giraffe
    medium giraffe's picture

    dupe.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:29 | 3260675 ebworthen
    ebworthen's picture

    These people have no fucking clue.

    "Easing may prompt excessive risk."

    Where was this genius insight in 2001-2004?

    Where was this sentiment in 2008-2012?

    "Concern about risk of more QE."

    Really!?!?

    So why did you assholes do any of this bullshit at all for the past twelve fucking years!?!?!

    These criminals are Yo-Yo's on banker's strings.

    PONZI!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:26 | 3260676 rubearish10
    rubearish10's picture

    Confusion could cause reeduced confidence in transparency. Could cause problems. Nah! Buy stocks, it's the right thing to do.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:29 | 3260680 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    I remember before they announced 2 QEs back to back when people thought they were done.  However, doing the math, the banking system is still insolvent, the US government needs to be supported, and the bond market is about to collapse.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:30 | 3260681 riphowardkatz
    riphowardkatz's picture

    deflation scare. blow a balloon up to fast and it will pop. to get the max inflation got to go slow.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:29 | 3260682 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Gold and silver down more.  Wow.  And here I was, thinking that balance sheets had to....balance.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:29 | 3260683 Confundido
    Confundido's picture

    Where is gold tomorrow after the 8:20m take down?

     

    1,580? 1,575? 1,570? 1,565? 1,550? 1,525? 1,515?


    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:32 | 3260694 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Well if you are stacking bullion and you are planning on buying tomorrow then you would want 1,515.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:35 | 3260705 fonzannoon
    fonzannoon's picture

    I am shooting for one more big purchase around $1200 and then I am cutting out to costa rica or somewhere and will sit on the beach and look for the big puff of smoke in the distance.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:40 | 3260733 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    You won't see 1200 unless the DJ gets cut in half.  Good luck with that.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:51 | 3260782 fonzannoon
    fonzannoon's picture

    you think I am a stock market bull? I see the dow in half as overvalued.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:35 | 3260704 Bastiat
    Bastiat's picture

    This is the move the fuckers cover on--they'll buy bullion, lock up delivery contracts with miners, have ABX buy up juniors for nothing and sell forward to the bullion banks.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:39 | 3260727 Winston Churchill
    Winston Churchill's picture

    Dollar cost average on the way down,just as you should have on the way up.

    This may be the last hurrah.Gold should be going up by common sense unless

    the PTB are creating a buying oppotunity for themselves..

    Nerve,balls  and strong hands required now.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:01 | 3260823 Taffy Lewis
    Taffy Lewis's picture

    I'm waiting for 1500. Come'on, baby! Lend a helping hand to a happy stacker (and saver: fuck you Bernanke).

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:31 | 3260689 Xibalba
    Xibalba's picture

    fuckers and akedemics unite!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:33 | 3260696 Caracalla
    Caracalla's picture

    Bought 1000 shares AQC/4000 shares PAAS....ready for the rocket to launch!!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:56 | 3260804 RationalPrepper
    RationalPrepper's picture

    Wow!  Bigger stones (and wallet) than I.  Best of luck.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:16 | 3260874 Non Passaran
    Non Passaran's picture

    What's AQC?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:37 | 3260714 Canadian Dirtlump
    Canadian Dirtlump's picture

    QE stops the day after I grow a 4th ball ( I won Lance Armstong's derelict second ball in an indian leg wrestling match ).

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:41 | 3260723 SillySalesmanQu...
    SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

    Fuck you Fed - pay me!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:42 | 3260743 debtor of last ...
    debtor of last resort's picture

    Seasonally adjusted QE. Whahaaa! "We thought we pumped 130 billion, but it was only 90", followed by crude black falls... and melting silver falls... And the "missing" 40 billion into s&p. Get it.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:45 | 3260759 delivered
    delivered's picture

    They (being all CB's and governments around the globe but especially in Japan, Europe, and the US) have created a monster that simply cannot be stopped. All three currencies including the Yen, the Euro, and the USD are doomed but not because of just CB policies, no its the enormous debt loads that simply cannot be repaid. So today the merry-go-round or circle jerk is now back in favor of a strong USD and weak Euros and Yens. The excess liquidity in the market just doesn't know where to park the cash as everyone is scared to death of the Yen (and rightfully so given the structural political, social, and economic problems present in Japan) and now the short-term party is over with the Euro (as major rumblings are being heard from Spain and Italy again and now France and even the UK, although still using the Pound). Beyond these three currencies/markets, there is simply no other place to move the huge amount of liquidity into as the Yuan and China are not ready to absorb it and the emerging markets are simply not big or stable enough.

    But the real killer with the higher USD is as follows. First, we already know that demand from trading partners is poor, especially from Euro (just look at US auto manufacturer results from Europe). Strike one as real demand is weak. Second, a higher USD means even lower global demand from increasing prices. Strike two. And finally, the higher USD will result in downward pressure on foreign operating results when converted for financial reporting purposes. Strike three and you're out. I believe P&G is going to take a $250 million hit just from the devaluing of the Venezuela currency so imagine would could happen with earnings when other companies have to begin the translation process.

    So this is getting to be like cruise ship passengers running from one side of a sinking ship to another hearing that there are lifeboats available to escape. Back and forth we go with the rocking getting worse and worse until the entire thing to capsize. And every time the markets get spooked a little more, the run back to the USD occurs with PMs getting pounded along the way. It happended all the way back with a small country in the Middle East, again with LB and BS, again with Portugal, again with Greece, again with Ireland, etc., etc., etc. Each time, PMs get pounded as the reverse relationship with the strenght of the USD kicks in but in the end, PMs fine a way to increase in value but not because of the CBs, no because everyone realizes that just like yesterday and today, tomorrow the world will add another layer of debt on to the massive pile of crap already present just hoping that the next incremental addition doesn't bring the house of cards down.

    The Fed knows this and while it may talk a good story about the "need" to show some restraint with QE, it simply is in too deep at this point. So just like every other false negative over the past decade as it relates to decreasing PM prices, be prepared for another one as anyone that has been in PMs for 10 plus years has witnessed 10 to 20+% corrections numerous times before. The real message PMs are relaying is not that the Fed may or may not change its policies but rather what the run-up in the value of the USD is saying. Simply put, Japan is a mess and Europe has no viable solution for its problems.

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:07 | 3261319 Karl von Bahnhof
    Karl von Bahnhof's picture

    Fed knows that its time to flip this coin verbally to maintain illusion of control.
    Verbal intervention is dead already.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:48 | 3260771 casaananda
    casaananda's picture

    Unbelievable slamdown in the PM's. Apparently it's the hedge funds that are dumping, too. O, to see equities tank and gold shoot the moon, but this is getting harder by the day. Can hardly believe mining stocks are getting hit so hard. NEM at levels at 40 now, where it was LONG AGO when gold was cheaper, much cheaper. I can hardly take it. VERY depressing and now I'm wishing I had much less allocated to PM's and the miners. Poorer by the hour, it seems.

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:57 | 3260808 RationalPrepper
    RationalPrepper's picture

    Hedgies liquidating GLD and SLV in anticipation of said equities drop??? 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:13 | 3260859 Non Passaran
    Non Passaran's picture

    Time to accelerate purchases... That's all..

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:48 | 3260774 Madcow
    Madcow's picture

    they have no choice but to dramatically raise taxes AND dramatically cut spending - which is exactly what they're going to do - and why Gold is tanking 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:10 | 3260857 Non Passaran
    Non Passaran's picture

    Haha, a "dramatic" rise to 100% of income wouldn't help....
    So why would they do it again?

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:56 | 3260801 Triple A
    Triple A's picture

    I read a lot of different people, and martin armstrong has been the most accurate. Can someone tell me where he has been wrong. He does not seem to get much love here. He thinks the gold market will take off when the collapse happens around 2015. 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:30 | 3260942 MFLTucson
    MFLTucson's picture

    Fucking liar!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:32 | 3260953 MFLTucson
    MFLTucson's picture

    MODERATE GROWTH PATH' Really?  Take a fuckin look at the CAT numbers assholes!

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:41 | 3260996 Panafrican Funk...
    Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=h1

    Currencies tell the story.  "Somebody" is buying a fuckload of dollars, and selling a fuckload of other currencies.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:43 | 3261002 Shizzmoney
    Shizzmoney's picture

    You can take these Fed Minutes and shove them up Bernanke and Fisher's asses.

    This "internal" discussion between FOMCers is a delusion of a delusion of a delusion.

    It's akin to shitty community theater, except maybe more comical to the astute free thinker.

    I have a better chance of getting laid by Maria Sharapova than the Fed does of raising interest rates and cutting QE before 2015.

    "If the Fed always cuts interest rates when asset prices tumble, but never raises them when they soar....."...then investors will be encouraged to take bigger risks. That makes bubbles more likely." - Steve Keen

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 16:44 | 3261005 Village Smithy
    Village Smithy's picture

    These egomaniacs using trillions of dollars of our money experimenting with QE is no different than having a high school physics class experimenting with nuclear fission. "Don't do anything foolish with the reactor kids, I'm just going down to the supply room to get Ms. ...er I mean some paper.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:11 | 3261101 q99x2
    q99x2's picture

    Easing may prompt excessive risk.

    You've got to be fucking kidding me. Why'd you buy the goddamn 1.75 billion hollow points if you didn't think there was a little risk. Ya bankster M'Fers.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:25 | 3261160 Tombstone
    Tombstone's picture

    Oh, what rubbish, you silly FMOCers!  Benny is already planning QE5 to keep pace with the mongrels at the central planning, er, ah, banking commision who insist on creating wealth using the power of instant money.  Good grief, everyone knows Benny will be buying gold, attempting to keep up with that Putin guy. 

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:16 | 3261514 optimator
    optimator's picture

     Well, ya gotta admit it, they are really good at creating wealth.......for themselves.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 17:37 | 3261217 CDNX fan
    CDNX fan's picture

    Long the VIX March 13 calls from $1.40 today - whooop whoop whooop.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:02 | 3261301 Melson Nandela
    Melson Nandela's picture

    Short the high cover VWAP...buy the low sell the VWAP...nice future for my daughter...priceless.

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:04 | 3261307 Mi Naem
    Mi Naem's picture

    News Flash: Ben Bernanke has a news conference scheduled at 9:30 tomorrow morning at which he plans to make the following concise announcement about today's FOMC minutes:  "Pssssyyyyyche!" 

     

    Wed, 02/20/2013 - 18:33 | 3261392 They Tried to S...
    They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

    This is the beginning of the Great Ponzi Exit Strategy - How to start selling and get out of the bonds without the market taking notice....Transparancy is over .....now that they got the market in the upper range they wanted....

    The Plunge Protection Team also has to exit their stocl positions too....

    And finally the GREAT JOB CREATION STRATEGY has failed.....and they know it. THat they had any illusions otherwise. It's all about getting the politicians re-elected and why the whole staff wanted out 

     

    They know its a PONZI .........Dow 5600 Gold 4200

     

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