FOMC Minutes: Hawkish Rumblings Getting Louder
It would appear that even though the relative dovishness of the FOMC has increased, a realization that the party has to stop sometime is dawning on the PhDs - though for now, the printing will continue until morale improves...
- SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID EASING MAY PROMPT EXCESSIVE RISK
- MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
- SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO VARY PACE OF QE
- FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
- SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS
- A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS SAID TAPERING QE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
Pre-FOMC: ES 1521.00, 10Y 2.01%, EUR 1.3337, Gold $1580, WTI $94.18
Some of the key sections:
However, a few participants expressed concerns that the current highly accommodative stance of monetary policy posed upside risks to inflation in the medium or longer term.
On the death of Okun's Law:
A number of participants thought that the growth of potential output had been reduced in recent years, possibly in part because restrictive financial conditions and weak economic activity in the aftermath of the financial crisis had reduced investment, business formation, and the pace of adoption of new technologies. Many of these participants worried that, should the economy continue to operate below potential for too long, reduced investment and underutilization of labor could further undermine the growth of potential output over time. A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap.
But punchline #1:
Several participants emphasized that the Committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolved. For example, one participant argued that purchases should vary incrementally from meeting to meeting in response to incoming information about the economy. A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred. Several others argued that the potential costs of reducing or ending asset purchases too soon were also significant, or that asset purchases should continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook had occurred. A few participants noted examples of past instances in which policymakers had prematurely removed accommodation, with adverse effects on economic growth, employment, and price stability; they also stressed the importance of communicating the Committee’s commitment to maintaining a highly accommodative stance of policy as long as warranted by economic conditions. providing monetary accommodation by holding securities for a longer period than envisioned in the Committee’s exit principles, either as a supplement to, or a replacement for, asset purchases.
A few participants commented that the Committee’s accommodative policies were intended in part to promote a more balanced approach to risk-taking, but several others expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk-taking and adverse consequences for financial stability. Some participants mentioned the potential for a sharp increase in longer-term interest rates to adversely affect financial stability and indicated their interest in further work on this topic.
Many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.
Another headfake from a Fed which will never, ever stop monetizing, or just more schizophrenia from Bernanke and Co? Why both of course.
And, in tangential news, this is what @Not_Jim_Cramer suspected the real minutes wordcloud looked like...