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FOMC Minutes: Hawkish Rumblings Getting Louder
It would appear that even though the relative dovishness of the FOMC has increased, a realization that the party has to stop sometime is dawning on the PhDs - though for now, the printing will continue until morale improves...
- SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID EASING MAY PROMPT EXCESSIVE RISK
- MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
- SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO VARY PACE OF QE
- FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
- SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS
- A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS SAID TAPERING QE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
Pre-FOMC: ES 1521.00, 10Y 2.01%, EUR 1.3337, Gold $1580, WTI $94.18
Some of the key sections:
However, a few participants expressed concerns that the current highly accommodative stance of monetary policy posed upside risks to inflation in the medium or longer term.
On the death of Okun's Law:
A number of participants thought that the growth of potential output had been reduced in recent years, possibly in part because restrictive financial conditions and weak economic activity in the aftermath of the financial crisis had reduced investment, business formation, and the pace of adoption of new technologies. Many of these participants worried that, should the economy continue to operate below potential for too long, reduced investment and underutilization of labor could further undermine the growth of potential output over time. A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap.
But punchline #1:
Several participants emphasized that the Committee should be prepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in response to changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of the efficacy and costs of such purchases evolved. For example, one participant argued that purchases should vary incrementally from meeting to meeting in response to incoming information about the economy. A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred. Several others argued that the potential costs of reducing or ending asset purchases too soon were also significant, or that asset purchases should continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook had occurred. A few participants noted examples of past instances in which policymakers had prematurely removed accommodation, with adverse effects on economic growth, employment, and price stability; they also stressed the importance of communicating the Committee’s commitment to maintaining a highly accommodative stance of policy as long as warranted by economic conditions. providing monetary accommodation by holding securities for a longer period than envisioned in the Committee’s exit principles, either as a supplement to, or a replacement for, asset purchases.
#2:
A few participants commented that the Committee’s accommodative policies were intended in part to promote a more balanced approach to risk-taking, but several others expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk-taking and adverse consequences for financial stability. Some participants mentioned the potential for a sharp increase in longer-term interest rates to adversely affect financial stability and indicated their interest in further work on this topic.
And #3:
Many participants also expressed some concerns about potential costs and risks arising from further asset purchases.
Another headfake from a Fed which will never, ever stop monetizing, or just more schizophrenia from Bernanke and Co? Why both of course.
And, in tangential news, this is what @Not_Jim_Cramer suspected the real minutes wordcloud looked like...
Full minutes:
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FUCK THE FED!
Silver falling towards a 27 handle as we speak.
They're so predictable.
Time to stack some more!
Paging Barf Chillstoned.
Paging Barf Chillstoned.
LOL. $1Trillion this year in easing and that's the headline?
LMFAO. Bunch of lies.
Watch what the cocksuckerz do, never what they say.
They are buying gold.
So am I. I know where this is going, and it's not back to 4% unemployment.
These "grumblings" will grow larger in subsequent FOMC meetings, and are actually a way to try and "talk" what are now highly exuberant (some dare call them irrational) markets down from the suicide perch that Bernanke pushed them up to.
Bernanke Will Never Voluntarily Stop Printing. His "Virtuous Circle" Will Implode The Second He Does (It Will Implode Either Way, Just Sooner If He Stops Printing.)
FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
Dafuq planet are these guys on, do they think we all smoke can?
*Edit*
LMAO just saw Lance Armstong in the wordcloud
I gotta say it..........
BULLISH!
So a minority of the FED said they were worried about printing >$80B per month, and maybe sometime we should only print a bit less such as $60B per month.
If this is truly considered hackish today, then we're getting closer to the end of fiat.
Gold dipped, then reversed higher. Sell the rumor, Buy the news?
Live Spot: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/
That would be the Fed buying Germany's 300 tons. Because all the gold is there right? RIGHT???
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-16/where-secret-jp-morgan-london-gold-vault-located
Comex paper capitalizing on this "Fed Speak."
Hahaha, That world Cloud is F*** Sweet!
What no Goldman in the Word Cloud. What is with that? It is the company that can't be named...ala Harry Potter villian?
Rumor has it that the FOMC members enjoyed a lunch courtesy of Carl's Jr. during their meeting.
I was looking for Astroglide.
I think that is what Chevy Chase put on the bottom of his sled in Christmas Vacation.
pods
Obama will never let the QE stop. Bernanke will be terminated if need be. All rumors that the easing can be slowed down are merely MOPE.
This is all theater for the halfwits and tradebots. Bernankes may come and go, but the easing must continue. Keep in mind these are the "doctored" minutes. What was really said at the FOMC meeting will not be available until five years from now.
The Fed has no choice. Both markets and GDP are utterly addicted to continued monetization so that the Treasury can keep mailing out checks and so Times Square doesn't turn into Syntagma Square. The Fed knows that the inflation mentality is taking root in the populace and bond yields are rising, so they're attempting to jawbone yields back down without actually doing anything that would rein in the money supply. The Treasury complex is rising across all maturities:
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates...
the printing will continue until morale improves...
Priceless...
AYE..
When morale improves, find another metric. tie QE to literacy rates in inner city neighborhoods, fleet avg. MPGs
"we are not the currency debasers you're looking for"
Paging Bart Shill-ton
How is the silver investigation coming?
Paging Bart Shill-ton
Are he and Assange from the same family cult?
He don't wanna get suicided. So shill keep mouth sut.
#fedspeak
You can add it to the silver you stacked at $36, $34, $32, $30, and $28... keep BTFDs, right?
Or you can just go ahead and keep stacking your FedRes notes. Should be able to start stacking bails of it soon, with 1 trillion a year coming hot of the presses.
Been stacking SPY since 2009, and I've been BTFDs... Can't fight the Fed
Too bad you didn't buy PMs since 2009, would have protected you better against inflation.
I hope this is sarcasm and I hope the people that starred you get it.
If not...well don't know what to say other than pull your head out of the dillusion.
Why would it be sarcasm?
I'll take my long CMG longs from $120, tyvm
Can't fight Gideon Gono! Oh, wait......
Kiss the godfather's ring.
Numbers don't lie. +1
The volume is extremely heavy.
The Fed is going to need a rather large tampon to soak up all that excess liquidity.
The Fed could care less. They have been fucking you for generations.
Bernanke reminds me of when Teddy KGB clucks like a chicken and tells Mike McD "I stick it in you"
Hawkish rumblings? Yeah fucking right. They just doubled QE and it is the tenth round of QE. If it was true than they would do more than talk.
Exactly. The toothpaste is out of the fucking tube already. Now what are you going to do Bennie Boy?
Any good con man knows - Say one thing, and do another.
The Fed is the ultimate con; buying toxic debt that the banks that govern the Fed's board can't own less they go bankrupt.
The Fed at this point is the most bankrupt bank in the history of banks. Period.
QE: Talk it down, print it up
Hawkish rumblings = Fed securities purchases reduced to $84.999 MM per month.
They cannot tighten (willingly). Everyone who reads Zerohedge should be on to the game by now. Talk is cheap, and the CBs will use "talk" as much as they can to manipulate the markets and resort to printing/loosening aka "screwing the common man" only when the markets do not move in the way they woud like (nominal stock prices, hitting inflation targets, aka "screwing the common man").
Tightening would mean they put some of that crap toxic MBS back on the market and put USTs back on the market when there is no demand for them. Rates would rise and for every 1% that rates rise the bond price would drop about 14%. This would wreck havoc on the bond markets and the US Treasury.
Also, while this happened where would the cash flow? To fiat? People would want to hold cash when the money supply has doubled worldwide? Rates would need to go above 10% to hold off inflation, and that would be a financial clusterfuck.
Would cash go to equity? When earnings are dismal and people are burnt out on stocks?
Would they go to commodities, where inflation and supply/demand is still squeezing them?
This is why the Fed will do their damnedest to keep rates low. How long they will is the trillion dollar question.
Buy gold and silver until you see this headline:
"Fed to JPM: Time to repo Bear Stearns, Lehman assets"
Ergo logically when FED start to tighten gold should go up because of decreasing dollar demand.
Another proof that markets are biased (controlled)
Market price of monetary metal is just irrelevant now.
They will not raise rates as to do so would "hurt the (robust) economic recovery". :-(
So they have political cover for a while at least. But nothing is going to get better soon, Bennie has already seen to that. Jobs, GDP, etc are stuck until the market clears all the malinvetsment.
Four more years of this nonsense, we can write the same posts in 2016 as now.
sschu
Fuck Martin Armstrong is the man!
Im afraid they broke Martin in prison and let him out to shill.
i've thought that myself sometimes. I like his cycles theory, but sometimes the dude is just hard to read and he claims hyperinflation will never occur
I hope he's right. Hyperinflation produces complete devastation in a society. On the other hand, if the dollar goes down 10% to 15% per year like it did in the 1970's, gold and silver will do at least as well as they did back then. Might even bring the Hunt brothers out of retirement.
tighter money will now be trumpeted as good news for the economy
Just a PM take-down. Gold and silver crashed, but the Dow is relatively flat. With CBs buying gold, they need a lower price. If the stock markets follow the PMs, QE reassurances will follow.
The big question is for those who have kept powder dry, where is the entry point?
I know max pain is just south of 1600....does that mean that we get a blip up Thurs/Fri before Monday expiry?
I would expect a pop to 1650 in a couple of weeks. Wait for the Dow follow-thru before buying.
Entry point?
Scroll down to the weekly chart view: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$GOLD
Gold has closed above $1550 in every trading session since the middle of 2011. Anywhere between today and $1560 is a bargain.
May I remind everyone that they were talking exist strategy in February 2010.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500395_162-6193834.html
Talk of raising rates in a matter of months...yeah...right.
Now go back and looks the PM performance over the last month. Any connection?
It is a giant short short position amongst the historically stupid money:
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/02/got-gold-report-courtesy-release-of-our-entire-February-18-report-.html
My guess is this is some historically stupid pair trade involving gold and the S&P based on the "recovery".
Shocker, someone just bought 1.8 million shares of SPY to save the market.
i wonder who that was.
Oh so that is why gold has been falling... someone leaked the information to their pals
We little guys cannot front-run. We can only react. This is a buying opportunity.
Soros was informed as well.
And the "pals" didn't even get the trade right. They should have been buying gold...as they will soon discover.
Trying to glean information from a press release that tries to make you think what they want to to think... Try the triple reverse whamo method. Or better yet be an insider and have Ben tell you what's up over lunch some day.
if they're so brave, why don't they stop? Let me the first to inform you niggas, "we know you're fucked."
Trading halt: Market awaits the Moscow Times Steve Liesman insights on the minutes. breaking: it is all bullish
Banker season opening soon...
There will be no limits!
1 is a number too.
Where can I get this "beard oil" referred to in the vernacular?
LOL. If you pull out your microscope you can just read 'risk', too funny..
'Fuck you- Pay me!', 'Boehner will cry', LMAO! thx NJC
Too freaking funny on the fake word cloud. Made my day. :)
Can we be sure it is faked?
Every 1% increase in interest rates creates an extra $150 Billion + in the US Federal Debt interest payment, which as we reach anything over 5% brings the US that much closer to default. This is all jaw boning. QE can never be ended.
Fucking Odoriferous Miscreant Cocksuckers
But if the fed owns them all and gives their profit to the treasury what does it really matter? Add in the profits off the MBS over time and Uncle Sam is doing ok.
Bingo!
Dead argument....
Fed collects coupon, remits same to Treasury.
Don't even need a shred of currency .... all electronic.
wouldn't matter at all as long as you don't plan to use USDs in trade.
Are they on LSD or what?
If they were on acid, they would have given up the farce and noticed how soft trees are.
Gee, I thought they said that employment falling below 7.2 percent was their un qe standard -who cares how many people are falling off the rolls.
tainted horse meat
At Woodstock, it was specifically the brown horse meat that caused freakouts.
Double squares for all.
I guess you can now sell stocks and buy gold as opposed to just buying gold.
"Moderate Growth Path"
GDP flat last quarter; lucky to hit 1% growth in Q1. I'm sooo secure with these a** clowns in charge.
Markets almost GREEN, lol
One gets the feeling the Fed is clueless...
They are not clueless. Their intrests are just different then the rest of ours.
Gold back @ year open
Stocks to follow suit.
fuck these pricks...
Even their minutes are 100% market manipulation.
I'm sure they sometimes say, "Off the record............"
I TOLD YOU ABOUT GOLD, DOG! I WARNED YOU!
Best word cloud ever.
1569.80 and 28.54 is all you got? I expected better from men of your education.
Maybe it's just lunch break.
Well Orly just a few weeks early.
Hmmm. news I've read the last week...housing starts down; ship, rail, truck traffic and freight shipping down; manufacturing down; GDP down; sales and earnings down; Wal-Mart down; FOXCONN, Apple, CAT down new car registrations in Europe down; China down, Europe down....must be....BULLISH, MUST BUY MOAR.
Translation - All the FOMC members have completed the refinancings on their primary home and vacation property. rates can now rise.
today is an example of why the FED is hosed.
Bond prices falling, stocks falling, commodities falling... nowhere to put your money except the mattress if they ever attempt to pull back on QE or reduce the size of their balance sheet
if they try to pull out... velocity of money will plummet
Bernie in wonderland has to print faster and faster just to stay in place.
Exactly. There is no where to run. Cash is actually king because it will lose less value than everything else.
Did make a nice round trip on SSO puts today. If no closing rally, I will reup at the close.
Whilst reading the cloud, I could of sworn i heard Yoko Ono's voice in my head saying, "if, You become naked"
Yeah, Bennie, stop monetizing the debt and see how that goes.
If they don't buy the Tsys...who will?
By the way, can we say that gold is a Giffen good?
Same old, same old. If somebody really believes they're going to stop QE anytime in the next couple of years, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you....If they stop QE, the stock market would crash and the increase in interest payments would cause the country would explode in about 5 minutes. Does anybody really believe they can or will stop QE before they are forced to do so by either bond vigilanties or by the fact that nobody will buy any more bonds? And let's not forget, there's a currency war going on and that means a race to the bottom whether they like or not...because the alternative is a stronger USD and zero exports....Next move - watch your back because your retirement accounts will be forced to buy US debt --- for your own protection, of course.
We have exports (besides raw materials)?
US exports GMOs, but I think that might change soon.
Oh dear Monsanto, not looking good! :
http://worldtruth.tv/5-million-farmers-sue-monsanto-for-7-7-billion/
dupe.
These people have no fucking clue.
"Easing may prompt excessive risk."
Where was this genius insight in 2001-2004?
Where was this sentiment in 2008-2012?
"Concern about risk of more QE."
Really!?!?
So why did you assholes do any of this bullshit at all for the past twelve fucking years!?!?!
These criminals are Yo-Yo's on banker's strings.
PONZI!
Confusion could cause reeduced confidence in transparency. Could cause problems. Nah! Buy stocks, it's the right thing to do.
I remember before they announced 2 QEs back to back when people thought they were done. However, doing the math, the banking system is still insolvent, the US government needs to be supported, and the bond market is about to collapse.
deflation scare. blow a balloon up to fast and it will pop. to get the max inflation got to go slow.
Gold and silver down more. Wow. And here I was, thinking that balance sheets had to....balance.
Where is gold tomorrow after the 8:20m take down?
1,580? 1,575? 1,570? 1,565? 1,550? 1,525? 1,515?
Well if you are stacking bullion and you are planning on buying tomorrow then you would want 1,515.
I am shooting for one more big purchase around $1200 and then I am cutting out to costa rica or somewhere and will sit on the beach and look for the big puff of smoke in the distance.
You won't see 1200 unless the DJ gets cut in half. Good luck with that.
you think I am a stock market bull? I see the dow in half as overvalued.
This is the move the fuckers cover on--they'll buy bullion, lock up delivery contracts with miners, have ABX buy up juniors for nothing and sell forward to the bullion banks.
Dollar cost average on the way down,just as you should have on the way up.
This may be the last hurrah.Gold should be going up by common sense unless
the PTB are creating a buying oppotunity for themselves..
Nerve,balls and strong hands required now.
I'm waiting for 1500. Come'on, baby! Lend a helping hand to a happy stacker (and saver: fuck you Bernanke).
fuckers and akedemics unite!
Bought 1000 shares AQC/4000 shares PAAS....ready for the rocket to launch!!
Wow! Bigger stones (and wallet) than I. Best of luck.
What's AQC?
QE stops the day after I grow a 4th ball ( I won Lance Armstong's derelict second ball in an indian leg wrestling match ).
Fuck you Fed - pay me!
Seasonally adjusted QE. Whahaaa! "We thought we pumped 130 billion, but it was only 90", followed by crude black falls... and melting silver falls... And the "missing" 40 billion into s&p. Get it.
They (being all CB's and governments around the globe but especially in Japan, Europe, and the US) have created a monster that simply cannot be stopped. All three currencies including the Yen, the Euro, and the USD are doomed but not because of just CB policies, no its the enormous debt loads that simply cannot be repaid. So today the merry-go-round or circle jerk is now back in favor of a strong USD and weak Euros and Yens. The excess liquidity in the market just doesn't know where to park the cash as everyone is scared to death of the Yen (and rightfully so given the structural political, social, and economic problems present in Japan) and now the short-term party is over with the Euro (as major rumblings are being heard from Spain and Italy again and now France and even the UK, although still using the Pound). Beyond these three currencies/markets, there is simply no other place to move the huge amount of liquidity into as the Yuan and China are not ready to absorb it and the emerging markets are simply not big or stable enough.
But the real killer with the higher USD is as follows. First, we already know that demand from trading partners is poor, especially from Euro (just look at US auto manufacturer results from Europe). Strike one as real demand is weak. Second, a higher USD means even lower global demand from increasing prices. Strike two. And finally, the higher USD will result in downward pressure on foreign operating results when converted for financial reporting purposes. Strike three and you're out. I believe P&G is going to take a $250 million hit just from the devaluing of the Venezuela currency so imagine would could happen with earnings when other companies have to begin the translation process.
So this is getting to be like cruise ship passengers running from one side of a sinking ship to another hearing that there are lifeboats available to escape. Back and forth we go with the rocking getting worse and worse until the entire thing to capsize. And every time the markets get spooked a little more, the run back to the USD occurs with PMs getting pounded along the way. It happended all the way back with a small country in the Middle East, again with LB and BS, again with Portugal, again with Greece, again with Ireland, etc., etc., etc. Each time, PMs get pounded as the reverse relationship with the strenght of the USD kicks in but in the end, PMs fine a way to increase in value but not because of the CBs, no because everyone realizes that just like yesterday and today, tomorrow the world will add another layer of debt on to the massive pile of crap already present just hoping that the next incremental addition doesn't bring the house of cards down.
The Fed knows this and while it may talk a good story about the "need" to show some restraint with QE, it simply is in too deep at this point. So just like every other false negative over the past decade as it relates to decreasing PM prices, be prepared for another one as anyone that has been in PMs for 10 plus years has witnessed 10 to 20+% corrections numerous times before. The real message PMs are relaying is not that the Fed may or may not change its policies but rather what the run-up in the value of the USD is saying. Simply put, Japan is a mess and Europe has no viable solution for its problems.
Fed knows that its time to flip this coin verbally to maintain illusion of control.
Verbal intervention is dead already.
Unbelievable slamdown in the PM's. Apparently it's the hedge funds that are dumping, too. O, to see equities tank and gold shoot the moon, but this is getting harder by the day. Can hardly believe mining stocks are getting hit so hard. NEM at levels at 40 now, where it was LONG AGO when gold was cheaper, much cheaper. I can hardly take it. VERY depressing and now I'm wishing I had much less allocated to PM's and the miners. Poorer by the hour, it seems.
Hedgies liquidating GLD and SLV in anticipation of said equities drop???
Time to accelerate purchases... That's all..
they have no choice but to dramatically raise taxes AND dramatically cut spending - which is exactly what they're going to do - and why Gold is tanking
Haha, a "dramatic" rise to 100% of income wouldn't help....
So why would they do it again?
I read a lot of different people, and martin armstrong has been the most accurate. Can someone tell me where he has been wrong. He does not seem to get much love here. He thinks the gold market will take off when the collapse happens around 2015.
Fucking liar!
MODERATE GROWTH PATH' Really? Take a fuckin look at the CAT numbers assholes!
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=h1
Currencies tell the story. "Somebody" is buying a fuckload of dollars, and selling a fuckload of other currencies.
You can take these Fed Minutes and shove them up Bernanke and Fisher's asses.
This "internal" discussion between FOMCers is a delusion of a delusion of a delusion.
It's akin to shitty community theater, except maybe more comical to the astute free thinker.
I have a better chance of getting laid by Maria Sharapova than the Fed does of raising interest rates and cutting QE before 2015.
These egomaniacs using trillions of dollars of our money experimenting with QE is no different than having a high school physics class experimenting with nuclear fission. "Don't do anything foolish with the reactor kids, I'm just going down to the supply room to get Ms. ...er I mean some paper.
Easing may prompt excessive risk.
You've got to be fucking kidding me. Why'd you buy the goddamn 1.75 billion hollow points if you didn't think there was a little risk. Ya bankster M'Fers.
Oh, what rubbish, you silly FMOCers! Benny is already planning QE5 to keep pace with the mongrels at the central planning, er, ah, banking commision who insist on creating wealth using the power of instant money. Good grief, everyone knows Benny will be buying gold, attempting to keep up with that Putin guy.
Well, ya gotta admit it, they are really good at creating wealth.......for themselves.
Long the VIX March 13 calls from $1.40 today - whooop whoop whooop.
Short the high cover VWAP...buy the low sell the VWAP...nice future for my daughter...priceless.
News Flash: Ben Bernanke has a news conference scheduled at 9:30 tomorrow morning at which he plans to make the following concise announcement about today's FOMC minutes: "Pssssyyyyyche!"
This is the beginning of the Great Ponzi Exit Strategy - How to start selling and get out of the bonds without the market taking notice....Transparancy is over .....now that they got the market in the upper range they wanted....
The Plunge Protection Team also has to exit their stocl positions too....
And finally the GREAT JOB CREATION STRATEGY has failed.....and they know it. THat they had any illusions otherwise. It's all about getting the politicians re-elected and why the whole staff wanted out
They know its a PONZI .........Dow 5600 Gold 4200