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Italy's North-South Divide, And Lombardia's Starring Role In The Elections

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The divide between the 'givers' and the 'takers' is well known across the broad European Union, but it is just as prevalent in the next risk-flaring centre - Italy - and this chasm between the two sides of fiscal profligacy will mark a critical separation in the pending elections. As the chart below shows, the North of the country tends to be the net tax contributor and the South the net receiver of fiscal benefits. At the very top is Lombardia (the richest state), a northern region that sends a net EUR44bn to the rest of the nation - and unsurprisingly perhaps is very pro-Berlusconi (in the polls) and has the most seats allocated (at 49 of 315). Interestingly, the region at the other end of the scale (the most broke state) - Sicilia - which receives net EUR 12.8 from the rest of the nation is also pro-Berlusconi's centre-right party. So it seems the rich and the mafia want Silvio though current opinion polls suggest Sicily is too close to call. The Italian election, for now ignored by all but the Italian sovereign bond market, remains a key risk event for confidence that Draghi's OMT promise can really hold things together - no matter how profligate a nation becomes.

Italy’s ability to pursue structural reforms is part of the conditionality in the event that it calls on the OMT. In other words, if in the worst case scenario reforms were suspended, there would be no access to the OMT.

 

 

State of the most recent polls - as we posted recently:

Based on opinion polls, PD-SEL-Monti securing a majority in the Senate: with 2 seats to spare if PD loses the three key regions and with 14 if they win Lombardy. The table below shows seats distribution based on current opinion polls, assuming PD-SEL lose Sicily, Veneto and Lombardy, and that the election result is broadly in line with the latest detailed survey available from Tecne’ conducted on the 31st of January showing 34% for the centre-left coalition, 28.6% for Berlusconi, 13.3% for Monti and 16% for Five-Stars. We highlight that the opinion polls show Sicily and Lombardy is still too close to call, in the event that PD manages to secure Lombardy, the majority in the Senate together with Monti would be 14 seats.

 

and from Bloomberg:

The key battlegrounds in the Senate race will be the swing regions of Lombardy, Sicily and Veneto, traditionally centerright strongholds in past elections, and Campania. In Lombardy, which also holds a local vote for governor, Berlusconi’s bloc led Bersani’s and his allies 34.7 percent to 34.3 percent, according to the average of nine polls last month. In Sicily, Berlusconi led 30.4 percent to 28.5 percent, according to the average of six polls. In Campania, Bersani led 33.1 percent to 30.1 percent, polls show. These regions are considered too close to call as the gap between the coalitions is within the average margins of error. In Veneto, Berlusconi led 38.7 percent to 31.6 percent, according to the average of six polls.

Should Bersani lose Lombardy, he would need to win the other three swing regions, Sicily, Campania and Veneto, and could only afford to lose one or two smaller regions to get an outright majority of seats in the upper house, based on polls. Even if Bersani wins Lombardy, he will probably need to grab at least Campania or Sicily or Veneto for a 158-seat majority, based on polls

 

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Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:24 | 3259082 Banksters
Banksters's picture

When private bankers gained the ability to print money, they bought sovereign peoples  republics.

 

We are all on the reservation now.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:29 | 3259388 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"Lombardia sends billions of euros to Sicilia"

lombardia wouldn't want that something bad should happen, like maybe a fire comes along and could possibly cause some unwanted burning activity to take place on the premises, or something unfortunate like that.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 13:38 | 3259938 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

As the chart below shows, the North of the country tends to be the net tax contributor and the South the net receiver of fiscal benefits.

That is racist!

Italy's North-South Divide...

...as explained by Dennis Hopper in True Romance.

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:26 | 3259088 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Productivity is a function of equatorial proximity?

Don't tell the algos.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:03 | 3259202 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

productivity and italy don't match...

and as we say over here in europe... when a Italian didn't pull a scam on you, IT'S BECAUSE HE FORGOT IT!

nobody seems to make the logical connection these days... THAT IT'S ALL ITALIAN FOOD STUFF THAT CONTAINS HORSEMEAT!!

COINCIDENCE?! I THINK NOT!!!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:25 | 3259089 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

South -> organized crime in the black market (drugs, illegal immigration, sex slavery, garbage services) -> tax free

North -> organized crime in the official economy -> taxpaying

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:03 | 3265608 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Tax paying organized crime? That's news to me...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:26 | 3259090 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

What's with all the givers and takers nonsense?  Isn't mankind one big happy family like we learned on Sesame Street way back when?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:34 | 3259111 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

When you're funded by the public like Sesame Street.....you never really understand the concept of real finance.

 

People getting free crap will always vote for more free crap. It will be interesting to see what happens cause that's where we're headed.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:50 | 3259158 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

Ummm I guess in that case we can overlook that real finance thingy regarding the $1.7 trillion in annual spending by the worlds military...I guess that comes into play when I'm tired of my free crap and want your free crap

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:25 | 3259360 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If you don't protect your free crap someone is going to show up and take it from you. That's why we pay top dollar for our military.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:27 | 3259096 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

it's nothing new, italy's always been economicaly divided that way ...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:31 | 3259106 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

According to the St.Malachy prophecy of Petrus Romanus, the 112th pope is named Peter, and Rome burns shortly thereafter.

It's kind of scary how BOTH of these are really close to happening.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:33 | 3259113 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

"Lombardia" ...isn't this where the Lombard family lived 2000 years ago? Houses were built of stone until the Lombards started building houses of Lumber? thus they became rich!!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:41 | 3260737 InTheLandOfTheBlind
InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

I am assuming they are all green bay packer fans.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:33 | 3259114 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Im on the blower with Perillo as we speak

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:35 | 3259115 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Big Bunga-Bunga weekend

Also in Cyprus the Presidential run-off, where the Communist-rooted resist-the-EU side has a chance for a surprise

Italy might go bunga-bunga, beginning the 'break up of the euro' dynamic, not just Berlusconi, but also Beppe Grillo's party, and the Northern League too, also euro-sceptic ... and Beppe Grillo wanting to start People's Tribunals

Tomorrow Thursday the 21st, demonstrations and strikes, not only in Greece

The workers unions are going to shut down a lot of Brussels ... giving the EU something to ponder below their office windows at the Berlaymont and Charlemagne office buildings

The revolution of resistance is in the works ... Wish they would just have the good sense to split the euro-zone in half right now, instead of waiting for the 'disorderly' break-up

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:35 | 3259118 youngman
youngman's picture

That is ture anywhere....most locations that are considered resorts areas...are liberal....free living..and usually costly....where the places no one wants to live...is where people work hard and pay their bills...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:40 | 3259133 Montezuma
Montezuma's picture

Isnt it same in the US? North pays for the souths idiocy?

Most of the industry is in north Italy, south is for tourism, which means a lot of ways to cheat on taxes. I bet most people "unemployed" are serving tables or pickpocketing tourists.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 15:42 | 3260741 InTheLandOfTheBlind
InTheLandOfTheBlind's picture

only because the bankers broke the backs of the agriculture of the south.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 10:46 | 3259150 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Red state Italian rednecks!

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 11:45 | 3259470 10mm
10mm's picture

In murica,it's the blue states,red states.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:01 | 3259573 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

The map looks like how an infections starts in the outer cells...same as the US if they ever pulled the curtain back and really showed the inflows and outflows by state.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:34 | 3259748 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Draghi, Monti,

Dr. Bones has a (Calabrese) greeting for you:  "Va pientro culo".  Or something like that.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 15:36 | 3267774 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

"Vaffanculo!"

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 12:46 | 3259797 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Historically the north has been more industrial and into arts, crafts and learning, and the south more agrarian and into a culture of social subservience to the central planners of organized crime and organized religion.  There are 2 Italys, fused into 1.  Kinda like in the US:  2 Americas fused into 1, thanks to Abe and Central Bankers.

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