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Jobs & The Economy - This Time It's No Different

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the FOMC's schizophrenic minutes, we thought it topical to look at how history has treated divergences between a lagging jobs market and a leading indicator (new orders) of the real economy. It appears that since the debt super-cycle began, the real economy has downshifted before the jobs market with CEOs finally giving in to slowing growth and laying people off soon after... of course, this time could be different - as we are sure to be told...

 

 

What exactly will the Fed do if jobs begin to deteriorate again? Print moar? Perhaps that is why WTI was crushed today?

 

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Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:39 | 3261566 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Can the Bernank "print" jobs?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:41 | 3261574 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

No, but he can blow jobs.... Steven Jobs.  Oral Necrophiliac....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:47 | 3261588 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Why is 79-84 missing?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:05 | 3261634 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Cheney ordered it removed for rendition. I mean revision.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:23 | 3261688 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

If .gov would get their foot of our throats, small business will lead in job creation, as it should be.  Lowe's and Home Depot in particular are pricing shit completely out of reason.  Mom and Pop lumberyards and ACE hardware are about to kick their ass.  I bought lumber from a mill in PA today, and shipped it FEDEX ground for less than half of what they are charging at the local store, including shipping.  That is the definition of insanity.  Those margins are going to shrink over the medium term, joe six pack is going to figure out sooner or later that the bi-opoly (Lowes & Home Depot) is an illusion for the sheeple.  Buy local becomes a no brainer when it is cheaper!

Fractal Vision Bitchez...

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 00:07 | 3262228 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I noticed that home depot changed a lot of their vendors and raised prices/less product for the $. the HDs by me are like ghost towns at any time of the day-esp at about 8am when the contractors used to come in and load up. I don't know if they are making enough to keep the utilities on let alone make payroll. plus the lack of MWest snow must have killed their seasonal item sales

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:15 | 3262336 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I finished seeing clients yesterday and headed out to lunch at a nearby Chili's that I like only to find it and the restaurant next to it boarded up. It is rare to see a Chili's close. I travel a good bit around my state and region and I still see things boarding up every month. A Staples here, a Chili's there, a mom and pop. On the flip side, outside of Starbuck's I don't see anything new opening. I wonder where all the workers from the closed stores go to work, especially as hours are being cut to accomodation ObamaCare? In my industry, salespeople are probably making at least 20% less if they can even stay employed at all.

My point is that I personally see a creeping growing malaise and I am in a "good" city. My instincts say the malaise will probably grow and I would just like stagnation, even as a compromise. I hear the talking happy heads on TV. I see the DOW and I see what are almost uniformly negative or uninspiring predictions. I think all our stats about recession and the economy are lies or simply not detecting the truth of the matter. I think the situation is much worse and I appreciate and agree with the idea behind this article. I think it is smoke, mirrors, tape and chewing gum. There is not only no boom and no recovery, there is no foundation for either of them. All the risk from my observation seems negative. I find the same attitude amongst people everywhere, even the Obama Kool Aid drinkers. It is moderately depressing and I think bodes badly for the near future.

Someone tell me where the recovery and boom is happening...outside of D.C.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:35 | 3262360 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

< --- You're closer than the BLS

< --- Some good shit you've been smoking/drinking, huh?

Vote above using arrows based on my opinion that real rate of U.S. unemployment (not underemployment, but true unemployment) if one were to use a more honest/accurate measurement is at minimum (but still probably quite "under-capturing/reporting" measurement) 14%.

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if it's nipping at the heels of 17% or 18% in terms of actual (not household survey OR payroll statistical fiction) reality.

If my SWAG is significantly closer to reality than what the BLS is reporting, that would probably necessarily imply that real, broader levels of unemployment + underemployment are close to 23% or 24%.

Poll above.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:07 | 3262405 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Pull the plug on TV and Hollywood or keep supporting it.  They lie to you 24x7 and it is all TV.

Malaise is not the word.  Despair might be better.   When a Chili's faila sna more Staples are closing then it is really bad.   IT is far worse than moderately depressing.  People are sheep and TV brainwashed idiots if they are not scared.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 09:30 | 3262771 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Someone tell me where the recovery and boom is happening...outside of D.C.

The Cayman Islands.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 06:56 | 3262556 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

You are totally right.  I remember when HD came into the Boston area, back in the 90s, built a store in Waltham.  I cheered because I was sick of the local hardware stores where they treated you like shit if they didn't remember you since high school.  And HD prices were half.

But then a funny thing happened -- the local stores mostly vanished, and HD prices mysteriously rose, year after year, until they were easily 3x or 4x the original levels for stuff like small hardware.  It's a reprise of the old Rockefeller strategy -- dominant national player drops prices in a local area to kill off all the competition, and then jack prices to monopoly levels.

Where are the trust busters?  Where's Teddy R?  Oh yeah, I forgot, our politicians are all under the CEO's desk providing "stimulus."

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:27 | 3261704 knukles
knukles's picture

Unless I'm crazy (No debate allowed, damn-it) the sell off in commodities today is a fine, mighty fine precursor of a slowing economic scenario.
And the for rent/lease signs are a poppin' up again around here.  And they's a lagging indicator, so guess things ain't gotten real good now, have they?
Bonds still suggest slow economy....
Stocks would appear to be the financial anomaly.. if ya think they're a leading indicator a la Uncle Alan and BigBen, so be it...  But I think it's a liquidity effect.  No more.
Not very promising.

Watch some Fed governors reverse direction in a few and start talking about moar ease.... plus, by my guess, Unemployment ain't yet at 6.5% now, is it?
The Fed's next big fear/action/reaction is gonna be slipping growth and possible deflation ... they gonna stay easy for a long long time.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:28 | 3261851 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Regardless of your mental state [you're welcome] today's sell off is indeed a very public economic shudder that all may not be well in Ømerika...

Commodities sell off because, why own oil, PM, etc. since demand will fall with the faltering economy?

But the difference is all those trillions of dollars that weren't here 10 years ago.  When those start chasing things people need daily - food, gas, etc. - well, the prices on those essential commodities will rise sharply.

Purchases that can be deferred will be, and the prices of those items will fall - homes, cars, etc.

And the economy will slow, so getting your hands on dollars will be harder and harder, so the government will claim that more money should be printed - which helps those altruistic guardians of civilization kick the can down the road while continuing to enrich themselves for their noble efforts.

That is our future, and it will arrive within months.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:00 | 3262316 tbone654
tbone654's picture

well done...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:50 | 3261598 booboo
booboo's picture

The Bernanke don't have to print jobs when the media is touting a "remarkable recovery" people have been so trained to "hope" that any hint of good news is immediately spent on the hopes they will hit the mother load tomorrow.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:13 | 3261656 edb5s
edb5s's picture

"Can the Bernank "print" jobs?" - This is a very concise and subtle (albeit a bit facetious, perhaps) way of explaining why quantitative easing cannot accomplish anything constructive.  Combine this statement with WB7's QE flow chart and you have yourself a great anti-Bernanke argument.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:40 | 3261567 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Maybe the initial claims isn't matching because a huge chunk of people have used up their allotment.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:59 | 3261618 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

They've been seasonally adjusted out of existence.

Is there anyone left who even believes any of the numbers they put out? They can massage the data to make it say anything they want. If they want it to look good, it'll look good. If they need it to look bad for some reason, it'll look bad.

Once you get used to the fact that it's all noise from a government that lies to you on a daily basis in order to maintain an illusion, you start to wonder just how bad the real situation is for them to go to all this trouble.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:28 | 3261711 knukles
knukles's picture

Almost as if they were beamed up for cavity inspections... er no, that takes place at airports... silly me...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 01:17 | 3262338 tbone654
tbone654's picture

next month I go from $65/hr wage to unemployment...  then I suppose at some point to a $14/hr wage if I want to work at all...  hmmm!  It seems that somewhere in the back of my aging mind I recall that if I do not file for the crappy unemployment compensation benefits, I can more quickly get to a point where I would qualify for and recieve rent assistance, free school lunches for my kids, state insurance (100%) and $1000 a month for food...  All you have to do is start a business and blow some money off for 12 months without any other income, and I think you're golden for the government parachute...

It's better than trying to avoid the inevitable...  at some point we're all going to be living in tents and shitting in 5 gallon buckets anyway...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 09:32 | 3262780 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

On the bright side, you still make more than me.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 10:20 | 3263006 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The gallows humor punchline really got me. Good luck to you.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:33 | 3261728 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Only probably 99.99% believe the numbers.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:40 | 3261570 Tebow
Tebow's picture

Looks good to me!

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:42 | 3261575 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Someone better get Biderman on the horn. He's touting 200,000 + in his latest video.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:03 | 3261627 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

one must remember who biderman's master is also?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:43 | 3261577 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Congratulations comrades new opportunities in the turnip fields have emerged after yet another bumper harvest

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:07 | 3261619 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Great idea. Put a big screen behind Bernanke showing a phalanx of combines rolling over the Palouse. 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:38 | 3261741 alex_g
alex_g's picture

Go Cougs

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:58 | 3261787 brak
brak's picture

^ +1

and turnip processing in Moscow (ID) of USSA for distribution to our comrades 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:46 | 3261759 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

And the chocolate ration has been INCREASED to 28 grams under Big Brother's glorius and wise leadership...

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:43 | 3261578 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Congratulations comrades new opportunities in the turnip fields have emerged after yet another bumper harvest

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:47 | 3261590 bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

I will bet the CPI will be negative tomorrow so more QE is back on the table.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:50 | 3261596 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Ben and Barry creating make-work government jobs again.  Silly bastards.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:53 | 3261607 Mark123
Mark123's picture

But we have more confidence these days....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:55 | 3261609 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Deny, Deny, Deny. That is what the FED will do......

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:55 | 3261611 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

well i just let go 25% of my workforce due to barrycare and unimproved business conditions,  bullish.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 19:57 | 3261617 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'm sure if Obama and the teleprompter get in front of a camera and say something everything will be fine.

(/sarc)

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:03 | 3261629 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The only difference betwen the 2009-2013 series and the rest is that jobless claims in the 2009-2013 series have been totally massaged. 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:06 | 3261636 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Perhaps that is why WTI was crushed today?

 

But then shouldn't gold be soaring rather than crashing? Print more, print now.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:42 | 3261880 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Maybe the first signs of the dollar carry unwind?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 00:08 | 3262230 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Society depends 100% on oil.

Society has no need for gold at all.  That's just the way it is.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:07 | 3261640 jldpc
jldpc's picture

Ever since Bill Clinton got caught on a black dress; but lied his way out of it; and zillions of women did not turn against him, you had a big clue - culture has changed; lies work. Coupled with dependence on others for hope and sustenance, why does any of this  surprise you; liberals will take all of your money while allowing the banksters to lead the way in graft, cronyism, and corruption. Trying to apply fiscal discipline morals to a culture turned wrong, is like fucking yourself. Move on.... pull down your pants and get it over with. Want to bet anything of value on how long it takes the Repubs to chicken out on the sequester? Thought not; move on....

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:19 | 3261684 gmak
gmak's picture

blue dress.   And it depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:36 | 3261733 sschu
sschu's picture

culture has changed; lies work.

Welcome to the post-modern populace.  The only truth is what I decide it is, do not confuse me with facts or numbers, I know you are just showing your bias and have an agenda.

The biggest problems we face are denial of objective truth and moral relativism.  These have been around for 100 years and show little chance of waning.  Our fate has been established.  Like so many articles around here, the lack of the people to have a real understanding/conversation about our circumstance seals our doom.   

sschu

 

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 02:13 | 3262413 Freddie
Freddie's picture

TV and Hollywood enabled this and protecting corrupt politicians.  Pull the plug on them or keep supporting it.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:09 | 3261645 ekm
ekm's picture

WTI was crushed?

What?

 

You guys call that a "cruuuuush"?

That's just a drop, a litttttttle one. The real one is coming...let's say $10 in one day.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:27 | 3261850 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Much over due in my opinion.

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:18 | 3261679 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Dreamliners still grounded--where to store them:

 

 

By CHRISTINE NEGRONI Published: February 19, 2013

With the Federal Aviation Administration’s grounding of the 787 Dreamliner fleet in its fifth week, Boeing now faces a problem of where to store the airplanes that continue to roll off the assembly line at its giant factory 30 miles north of Seattle.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/realestate/commercial/to-boeings-list-...

 

 

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:31 | 3261719 knukles
knukles's picture

Can't fly 'em so gotta stop production.
LOL
Well, all the French Boeing employees want to go on strike anyhow, so it's as good a time as any for a fucking LockOut

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 20:44 | 3261756 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Oh crap! We got lied to again!?!?

Wed, 02/20/2013 - 21:47 | 3261884 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

This time is different because we have tons of funny money and Benny Bucks ready to go into action to help prop up anything you want.  That includes Obama's welfare regime, bank scams, congressional front running, phoney elections, stock market computers, bonds, housing, debt, cell phones, food stamps, education loans, stupid panels for all, windmills on every acre, money for Japan, money for Europe, money for terrorists, etc, etc...you name it, fill in the blank....

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 04:16 | 3262494 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

This time - it's different.

Uncel Dolan sends his regards.

Regards,

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 09:34 | 3262790 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The funny thing is, that the CEOs have given so MUCH MONEY to the government - they are also basically agents of the government and the Federal Reserve.

When SHTF, the public (with pitchforks and bats in hand), are going to (I believe) look over and up and realize who the REAL problem is.

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