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Global Leading Indicator Shows Slowdown Dead-Ahead

Tyler Durden's picture


While the sell-side has been vociferous about the fact that earnings are troughing, that consensus growth expectations are not miraculous, that equities are discounting that awesome reality; it appears Goldman Sachs' 'Swirlogram" - which we initially discussed here - is pointing to what we have been seeing for months - a slowdown in their global leading indicator dead-ahead.

The GLI is rotating from expansion to slowdown rapidly... the drivers of the weakness are the Baltic Dry Index, Global PMIs, Global New Orders Less Inventories, and Goldman's Aussie and Canadian Dollar TWI.


This is Goldman remember... not some tin-foil-hat wearing blog...


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Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:49 | 3264913 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Systems are always perfectly designed for the results they obtain.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:04 | 3264941 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture


The Careless Whisper News Update & Threadjacking

There's a cat fight going on in a Manhattan Supreme Court. JC Penney, Macy's, Martha Stewart, Ron Johnson, Terry Lungren; are all set to testify. The NY Post says JC Penney is pure evil; "dark tactics" to help Martha. New Yorker's love Macy's; after all they pay for the Thanksgiving Day Parade and the Fourth of July fireworks.

But JC Penney has a new concept for their store; it's "stores-in-a-store". It's advancing;

For example, the Levi's store inside the JC Penney store looks like this;

The brawl wouldn't be complete without Bill Ackman, who is long JC Penny and says the new concept, where implemented, has doubled sales per square foot to $270, which exceeds Macy's. So the question really is: IS MACY'S WORRIED ABOUT JC PENNEY'S NEW STORE CONCEPT?




Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:11 | 3264980 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I'll take "Who gives a shit. Retail is dead." ....for 1000, Alex.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:16 | 3264995 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Could you text/tweet this message to Bill "TGT" Ackman.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:40 | 3265070 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I try not to engage dumbasses. i am sure he has his hands full with Icahn.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:51 | 3265100 Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture


 longtime no see, still stacking?

 It would appear there is not all that much time left.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:38 | 3265252 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I was just thinking that. Yes I am. God and Gold play a long game. Beware the headfake.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:16 | 3264997 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

And in other news, the Bad Idea Tshirt girl has awesome tits.

Enjoy the weekend, my bitchin' ZH brethren. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:26 | 3265007 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I like my tin-foil hat.

It fits nicely on my head, blocks radio signals from DHS, and gives off a nice reflection in the sunlight.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:18 | 3265006 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Wow, so, JC Penny is now ... a mall?  GENIUS

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:24 | 3265021 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Not JUST a mall.  An EMPTY mall.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:35 | 3265050 knukles
knukles's picture

On steriods; the Lance Armstrong Mall Testicular Cancer Recovery Group

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:55 | 3265112 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

So JC Penney is turning in to an empty mall? OKaay. Retail is dead. OKaay. Have any of you ever heard of the Fort Lauderdale Swap Shop? Do you know what a 14 screen drive-in movie theatre is? Preston Henn, who owns the inovative (key word) flea market, also owns a G-6 jet, and Forbes has his net worth pegged at $1.3 Billion.

With 40% of the float in JC Penney short, you've got alot who agree with you.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:15 | 3265170 walküre
walküre's picture

Hadn't heard of this swap shop but that type of economy seems to be booming everywhere. Thrift Stores are all the rage now! Mall owners are a pretty sad bunch these days.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:32 | 3265691 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Is it still a shithole a la thunderdome?


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:23 | 3265018 walküre
walküre's picture

JC Penney is closing stores left, right and center. Retail is dead. Maybe in NYC people have time and money to go shopping but for the rest of the country, it's a done deal.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:38 | 3265064 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

It seems like it's the best of times, worst of times, scenario. 

JC Penney is headquartered in Texas, BTW.


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:00 | 3265116 yogibear
yogibear's picture

NYC (financials)  and Washington DC (taxes, lobbyist)  are the money centers. Both are doing very well. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:58 | 3265591 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

The "For Rent" signs are beginning to come back in Manhattan and hipster sections of Crooklyn.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:05 | 3265616 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

JC penny is wanting to charge others to use their floor space, it sounds good but it won't work and it has been tried before.  Unless you have cheap rent and they can sell, it won't work or work for long.  Also We are going into a contraction and it will be nasty.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:50 | 3264916 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Swirlogram?  Roll tide, roll.  Around the bowl and down the hole!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:49 | 3265096 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Swirlogram?  Roll tide, roll.  Around the bowl and down the hole!

For crying out loud, why don't they just come out and call it a swirly? Isn't that really what it is? Goldman, JPM, and the rest of the fraternity have taken the worldwide economy and, while taking turns ass raping it, have shoved its head into a toilet bowl and flushed.

I'll bet they really gouge their clients for these Etch-a-Sketch to Powerpoint conversions.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:51 | 3264917 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Last chance for the PM train before it leaves the can't eat it but you can sure as hell buy a lot of steaks with it

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:55 | 3264933 CH1
CH1's picture

Last chance for the PM train before it leaves the station

Sure hope so, but I just don't know what makes them fail at naked shorting.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:58 | 3264945 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

only limiting factor is ACTUAL bullion accumulation by much bigger buyers than the peeps. this can only be allowed so long before they are forced to elevate the price level. They cannot allow this unchecked and there are some very big players buying and taking possession of tonnage now. gl

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:30 | 3265036 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

They will invoke force majeure and walk away. Owners of Gld or other etfs will not see a dollar, not just gold, not even dollars. The gld certificates are backed by nothing, not even dollars, they are printed into existence out of thin air.
Paper owners will get one thing, screwed.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:10 | 3264978 walküre
walküre's picture

Obviously they are pretending to slow their monetizations down in order to allow for another controlled demolition. Once the houses have fallen, they can step in and offer their assistance in the rebuilding efforts. When the propaganda was full on spewing nothing but recovery from "green shoots" onwards, the back peddling will have to be on their terms as well.

The American economy never left the dead zone over the course of 4 years. The curtains will be lifted and the misery will be exposed for all eyes to see. Then the demolition that started in 2008 can resume its course before we're hitting a true bottom, potentially a reset of all assets and asset classes and perhaps even a new currency.

Buckle up, hunker down. Tougher times are a' coming. Save all you got and try to bring as much as you can through to the other side.

One thing is for certain. The most massive PRINTFEST of currency, debt and liability adjustments is right before us. Ask any Japanese if they regret not having bought (more) gold and silver last summer (currency is devalued 25% since and counting) or any Venezuelan if they regret not having converted their paper the day before their government devalued the currency 46% quasi overnight.

That's why I love my stash.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:22 | 3265011 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

if you plan on living forever buy and hold works I guess...  otherwise, just like stock, sell high and buy low.  If you bought 5 ounces at $1850 then you lost an ounce when it dropped to $1550.  That's a 20% loss, and a bad trade... in any country.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:34 | 3265049 walküre
walküre's picture

ok, what would you buy with the money instead or just keeping it converted to cash for a while? If you accumulate steady for years and you buy every month you should have hit a good range of prices during that time. Why would I convert that back to paper?

I don't live forever but I sure as hell won't leave my kids with stock certs or crappy real estate investments. They get the stash and if they've learned anything from my rants against the banks and the politicians, they will make sure to safe that stash and add to that as circumstances permit.

But my point was that the great reflation experiment of 2008 to 2012 has failed and that the CBs are truly at wits end this time. The debt and liabilities are huge. Not serviceable even in a slow growing economy let alone in a receding global economy.

So what's the way out? How can it go on unless they print like they've never printed before? Japan is leading the way. UK is mulling it over and nobody has a fucking clue in Europe and what the ECB is actually doing. The Fed is the master money changer and will not hesitate to pull the plug if they need cover for their escape.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:26 | 3265208 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

ok, what would you buy with the money instead or just keeping it converted to cash for a while?

more gold, when the price dips.  There are plenty of places to buy and sell at spot and make money off the spread.  It takes a little luck and timing, but so does everything. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:23 | 3265188 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I believe walkure was comparing holding a real asset before gov't debauchery (through an overnight revaluation) as opposed to after.  YOU are comparing the relative highs and lows of gold over the last year in USD to fit your agenda.  You should have chosen 2008 until now to run your price model, which is the same time frame that walkure is referring to with respect to this grand CB experiment we're living through.

Or, better yet, stay on topic and run your price model for gold in Bolivars as per walkure's point.  WARNING: Results may vary.

or, YMMV


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:23 | 3265198 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

to fit your agenda

I have no agenda.  I just think buying at any price is a poor strategy for any investment.  My price model  aside, gold didn't do shit for 20 years, so it's not the be all end all of investing, and that was my point.  I own gold but I'm not married to it.  

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:51 | 3264918 Truther
Truther's picture

Beam me up Scotty....Ain't no intelligent life with nanke

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:17 | 3264992 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Scotty needs your coordinates.  Anyone else?  Kirk out.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 17:52 | 3264922 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Expansion;  in credit?  silliness?  cow pie?    Oh, its Goldman.  Friday comedy early?


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:11 | 3264957 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

I'm sure GS hooked up their Leacher Line for this measurement.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:05 | 3264967 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:13 | 3264988 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

they call us the consumer and we are dying of consumption...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:16 | 3264999 jimijon
jimijon's picture

I guess these spiral type graphs are becoming the rage at ZH.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:47 | 3265281 object_orient
object_orient's picture

(0, -1) bitchez

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:22 | 3265002 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

So, we are getting the economic equivalent of what used to be called in grade school, a 'swirlie'?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:20 | 3265012 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

this graph is nonesense i don't even want to read about it


come back when you have some point !



Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:25 | 3265025 metastar
metastar's picture

I need to see more historical data plotted on this graph to determine if the implied circular pattern is the norm.

Having said that, I still believe we are on the road to ruin though this graph offers no real indication.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:26 | 3265028 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture


The chart shows the cyclical nature of the economy. It shows they we are just at the beginning of another slowdown phase. At least that's what the leading indicators are showing.

I don't understand all the charts here, but this one should be self explanatory. To prove the point I just asked my 9 year old daughter what it means and she nailed it in about 5 seconds. I have to question why anyone is here if they don't understand this very simple chart.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:46 | 3265065 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If need be, refer back to this article on ZH:

It might have helped if it had said, "Is the comprehension of some ZH readers below zero?"

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:37 | 3265055 knukles
knukles's picture

Nonsense from Goldman?
How could that be, Muppet?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:37 | 3265059 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Here are some real life examples.....I do like a swirly chart though.

Detroit's delinquencies are so pervasive that some owners have been allowed to keep their property even if they don't pay taxes. Wayne County treasury officials are so overwhelmed by foreclosures that they ignored about 40,000 delinquent Detroit properties that should have been seized last year and said they will look the other way on about 36,000 this year.

The economy has hit our area hard," Doroshow said. "When people are strapped financially, they take away the things from their budget they think are the easiest to postpone."In 2011, more than half of Chicago-area residents surveyed by the dental society said they put off dental treatment in

the past year because they couldn't afford it.

 OLYMPIA — House Democrats rolled out a nearly$10 billion transportation package Wednesday that would boost taxes on gasoline, increase car tabs and even charge a bicycle fee to raise money.

The proposal would increase the state gas tax by 10 cents over five years, eventually reaching a total of 47.5 cents per gallon. Washington currently has the nation’s ninth-highest gas tax.

In addition, it would create a car-tab tax equal to 0.7 percent of a vehicle’s value — $140 for a $20,000 car.

There’s even a $25 sales fee on bicycles worth $500 or more that would raise $1 million over 10 years, a nod to motorists who complain that bicyclists don’t pay their fair share.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:39 | 3265068 walküre
walküre's picture

my advices to yous

buy mores and go longer

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:21 | 3265016 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

slowdown, lower tax revenue, increased expenditures..... and less easing....

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:22 | 3265017 new game
new game's picture

flushed the swirlie this morn.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:24 | 3265023 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Didn't Ray Dalio tell Maria at the CFR that if the banksters don't keep the GDP running at at least 1.5% the whole F'n ponzi goes up in smoke.

Or something to that effect.


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:30 | 3265029 razorthin
razorthin's picture

This is the first time I ever saw a swirlogram or heard of the word.  Thanks for that.  Did I miss that day in physics?  Our CEO likes spider charts though.  Sick bastard.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:52 | 3265108 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

The swirlogram must be the in-thing for Power Point Rangers at the Pentagon.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:31 | 3265039 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Take the $400 government hammers off the table and there will be a slowdown. Some companies lose money on most of their products, but make it up with their government hammer order. Kind of like a farmer keeping his large crops above water with his tiny crop of government allocated tobacco. There will be inflation soon.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:37 | 3265056 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I want the last 30 seconds of my life back.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:48 | 3265091 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and what you gonna do with them if you could?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:40 | 3265057 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Nice Fibonacci spiral.


Hey Bernanke, there's something else dead ahead, just for you..

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:37 | 3265058 GS-DickinDaMuppets
GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

This whole chart thing (including the thread comments) is some sort of joke,  right? ....well isn't that right?....WTF?


Doing God's work.....GS-DickinDaMuppets

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:37 | 3265063 besnook
besnook's picture

the aussie index doesn't apply here. the turd swirls in the other direction down south.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:42 | 3265075 pitz
pitz's picture

Buy gold, motherfuckers. 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:43 | 3265079 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

They kept on talking about kicking the can down the road, but all roads end, just like timelines.

What the hell did they expect?  When they used Greece as an example of what not to do, now unemployment is over 26% and youth unemployment is 60%, do you think that country will be buying anything except for the very basics to survive?

They wouldn't let them go bankrupt, just like the US should have let Chrysler, GM, AIG, the banks go bankrupt as well as Fannie and Freddie.

Wait.  That green piece of paper out there called cash won't be worth a plugged nickel.  

The Europeanean Union won't survive, too much human suffering is starting and it is infectious.  Wall Street, Lehman Bros and those who are really responsible for 9/11 did a great job of screwing up the lives of billions.

I'm not worried as I know what goes around, comes around, eventually.  :)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:05 | 3265131 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

When the dust settles, those that can, will.

Those that cannot, they will either starve or embrace the old models of economic success.

And we will all be better off for that.


Thu, 02/21/2013 - 18:46 | 3265085 besnook
besnook's picture

in terms of classic keynesian fun with numbers(the game we are stuck with whether you like it or not) the .gov budget should never be reduced in recession. krugman has pounded you with his shoe trying to get this point across. in the sense that secastration is scheduled to take 500 bil out of the economy he is probably right. this is not the right time(it probably never will be until the reset) you will never hear him say the 500 bil should be taken out of the bloated budget and equalized by redirecting it into the hands of the consumer via a tax break or a lump sum .gov rebate in the form of a check or checks.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 08:59 | 3266445 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Seacastration is 1000 bil over 10 years, which probably won't happen. This year's increment is only 85 bil.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:11 | 3265156 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Who cares, AIG has our backs.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:18 | 3265286 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

This is simply Goldman's instruction chart for how they want a rim job.  When the tongue first hits, the anyus contracts.  Next, it recovers from the shock and then expands whilst Sachs breathes heavily.  Finally, slowdown at the end for full effect.


This chart is worthless.  An entire 'business cycle' in just 12 months? (plus any remainder) I think lemonade stands have longer 'cycles'.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:31 | 3265855 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

True, a simplified look at things.

I do like the anus-splichter analysis.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:33 | 3265850 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Get your shorts balls deep nearer the Slowdown* phase & buy yourself the Ferarri that you've always wanted.

*This being GS, thus chart & any analysis are therefore worthless, so CAVEAT EMPTOR, bitchez.

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